This is the perfect storm to pay up for Chris Sale tonight. You probably know how good Sale has been, sporting a spotless 8-0 record with a 1.67 ERA. He’s striking out nearly a batter an inning and has only allowed five earned runs over his last 45.1 IP. The dominant lefty gets the Houston Astros who are strikeout monsters in general, but especially when facing a southpaw. They are striking out at 25.8% which is the third highest rate in the league versus LHP. It’s important that this game is being played in Chicago as the Astros drop from the 12th best offense at home to 19th on the road. U.S. Cellular was the fifth best pitcher-park last season.
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You have to love the upside of Corey Kluber tonight. He’s been knocked around a little more than usual, but I think that will hide his scent on this slate. Kluber is still a top strikeout option, sporting a 9.0 K/9 this season which is either third or fourth on this slate (depending on IP minimums). He has settled down a bit in his last five starts, sporting a 3.24 ERA and striking out at least seven in three of those starts. Tonight he earns a date with the Reds who are really struggling this season. They rank 26th in wOBA in the last seven days while striking out at the 8th highest rate in the league. Plenty of upside makes Kluber a viable GPP option tonight.
Do the Cubs ever stop? Arguably the league’s best offense and they’ve been excellent no matter how you split the season. They’ve scored 8+ runs in a game on 12 different occasions this season, which is the most in the league. They’ve scored 6+ on 20 occasions. They’ve only played 37 games! More than half the time, you are going to get 6+ runs from these guys. For reference, the league average is 4.34 runs per game. Now they get Junior Guerra who has only made three starts this season, surrendering eight runs in 18 innings. The concerns for Guerra are the fact that his 33% Hard% rank 5th worst on this slate and his 42.9 FB% is second-worst on the slate. That’s going to make for a big problem playing at Miller Park which surrenders 43% more HRs than the league average.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.