There are three distinct tiers on this slate. It’s Jose Fernandez in tier one, Drew Smyly in tier two and then everyone else in tier three. Unfortunately, Fernandez and Smyly will be facing off against each other. However, it’s worth noting that Smyly and Rays are -105 tonight against the Marlins, which is a coin flip. Smyly has pitched at least five innings in every game this season and is checking in with a 10.13 K/9 this season. His command has been excellent, walking only 2.25 batters per nine. The Marlins aren’t the best matchup but they do strike out at the ninth-highest rate versus LHP.
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Kevin Gausman is the “best of the rest” tonight. Gausman is another innings eater, pitching at least six innings in four of his last five. Gausman simply doesn’t walk batters and has racked up at least ten ground-balls in four of his last five games. He’s flashed some upside this season, striking out nine batters just a few starts ago. Tonight he will get the strikeout-heavy Astros who have K’d more than any other team in the league.
It’s hard to look past the Colorado Rockies tonight in Boston. The 5th best offense in the league will have to step away from hitter friendly Coors Field, but Fenway Park is nothing to be too concerned about. Fenway is allowing the 3rd most runs this season and allowed the 4th most last season. In reality, they have one of the better pitching matchups on the board. They face Clay Buchholz whose 5.38 xFIP is the worst on the slate and he has allowed 4+ runs in five of his last six games. His walks are creeping dangerously close to his strikeouts and his 1.57 HR/9 is one of the worst rates in the entire league.
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