All signs point to David Price ($11,400) as the chalk play at pitcher today and for good reason. The Red Sox pitcher is significantly cheaper than his counterparts and gets the ideal matchup against the Braves today. No team has a worse wOBA than the Braves this season and sport the second-worst wOBA versus LHP. Price was knocked around in his last start against the Rays, but make no mistake about it, he is an elite pitcher in this league. He owns a 13.29 K/9 this season and will now face a National League team with will trot out a pitcher in the lineup.
Today’s Projections | 2016 Game Logs Database | Player Scoring Calendar
A solid start to the season for Edinson Volquez ($8,200) who has scored at least 24 DraftKings points in three of his four starts this year. When he’s on, he’s inducing plenty of ground-balls, to the tune of 52.2% (7th best on the slate). This Angels team that he will face tonight has really struggled at the dish this season, posting the second-worst wOBA in the league. There’s actually no team that has scored fewer runs this season than the Angels. The concerns with Volquez are certainly present, particularly in the walks category, but he’s been a workhorse for the Royals, throwing at least 100 pitches in each game.
He’s not flying under the radar anymore, but Rich Hill ($7,700) is worth your attention. He’s been feast or famine this season, scoring 4.4, 30.7, 8.6 and 31.2 DraftKings points in his first four games. That should force you to limit your exposure to GPPs. Believe it or not, he owns the highest K/9 on this slate at an insane 13.74. That’s more than Price, Sale, Kershaw, etc. etc. The Tigers are perceived as a better offense than they really are at the moment. They are 19th in wOBA and own the 8th worst K%. Comerica Park is mostly neutral as a whole, but it surrendered 23% less HRs than the league average.
Let’s continue to pick on the Angels and look at the Kansas City Royals as a potential team stack. Jered Weaver has been one of my favorite targets this season and for good reason. He owns a 6.23 xFIP (2nd worst on the slate) while only striking out 3.63 hitters per nine innings (worst on the slate). That’s a killer combination for a guy who also owns the slate’s highest FB%. I mean, I can’t make this stuff up, Weaver is literally the worst pitcher on the slate this season by nearly every metric. Now he has to face a Royals team who can kill you in a variety of ways. They are the perfect team to stack with their ability to avoid the strikeout and they don’t hit a ton of HRs. That means it takes a string of multiple hits to score, which lends itself nicely to stacking.
The St. Louis Cardinals are always overlooked as a team stack. The Cardinals own the league’s top wOBA and are going to face Shelby Miller tonight who owns a 6.27 xFIP (worst on the slate). The Cards have slugged 28 HRs (2nd most in the league) and are led by Jedd Gyorko, Jeremy Hazelbaker and Brandon Moss in that category. Gyorko and Moss both have multiple position eligibility on DraftKings so it should be rather easy to work those guys into your lineup assuming they start.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.