I’ll be intrigued to see Mashahiro Tanaka’s ownership tonight. He’s been excellent this season, allowing no more than two ER in any game this season. Over his last four starts, he has tallied more strikeouts (25) than hits allowed (22). His 2.93 xFIP is best on this slate and his 1.60 BB/9 is the lowest on the slate. That’s an excellent combination! Now, the match-up is really interesting. I’d normally avoid pitchers against the Kansas City Royals, but they are simply not the same team that we saw all of last year. The Royals are currently ranked 22nd in wOBA this season. Even more concerning, they have scored the fourth-fewest runs in the league.
Adam Morgan ranks as one of my favorite value plays of the day. He hasn’t dazzled, but he has certainly been serviceable in his two starts this season. He struck out seven in five innings against the Indians before struggling a bit versus the Cardinals in his last start. What you have to love about Morgan is his ability to eat up innings at this price. He started 15 games for the Phillies last season, while pitching at least 6 innings in nine of those games. You couldn’t ask for a better match-up than that against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves rank dead last in overall wOBA this season. They’ve been horrible against LHP, also dead-last in wOBA while striking out at 26% (second-highest in the league).
What’s going to give? The horrendous Yankees offense or the pathetic pitching of Kris Medlen? Let’s start with the Yankees. They on the 5th worst wOBA in the league, have scored the second-fewest runs and are dead last in homers (last seven days). Now, they made still be worth a GPP flier considering how inconsistent their results have been. In the last seven games, they’ve scored runs totaling 7,1,7,0,3,8,1. While they are just as likely to score zero as eight, you’d be thrilled with eight runs out of them tonight. If they are ever going to post a big number, you’d suspect it to come against a guy like Kris Medlen. To say that Medlen has been bad, would be an understatement. He is sporting a 6.85 ERA and his last four starts have left much to be desired. Over his last 17.1 IP, he’s allowed 18 hits, 19 runs and 13 walks while only striking out 11. Something has to give here!
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.