Willing to take on a little risk? How about Aaron Nola ($8,500)? Yes, I know the Cardinals are the top offense this season, but in the last seven days, they are sporting the 14th best wOBA in the league. That makes them very…average. Nola has been more than average this season. In fact, he’s been dazzling. He’s scored at least 22 DraftKings points in four of his five starts this season including back-to-back 28 DK point performances in his last two. His most recent start was seven shutout innings against the Nationals in which he posted seven strikeouts. Nola’s 10.09 K/9 is the highest on the slate and his 2.62 xFIP is the lowest on the slate. That’s a killer combination worth investment in GPPs.
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Sneaky little Matt Moore ($8,600) might be the safer option in that price range. Moore has posted fantasy games on 30.7, 11 and 24.8 in his last three, while tallying 24 Ks in the process. His 9.84 K/9 is second best on the slate and he gets a sneaky good matchup with the Dodgers. Many avoid target pitchers against the Dodgers because of their tremendous upside, but quite frankly, they’ve been miserable lately. No team has a worse wOBA in the last seven days, they are striking out the 10th most in the league and have scored the second fewest runs in that span. They’ve been dreadful against lefties, ranking 24th in wOBA. Tropicana Field is a pitchers-haven, allowing the second fewest runs this season.
If you want value, look no further than (insert whoever is playing the Padres). Ha! No but, seriously, tonight it’s Eddie Butler ($5,300). Butler is priced to move as he is filling in for Jorge De La Rosa who heads to the DL. Butler has basically no sample size this season, other than the 2.1 IP he threw against Pittsburgh last week. In that game, he did tally four strikeouts against one of the better offenses in the league, but there’s not much to go on. We are really just targeting the miserable Padres who are a bottom five offense no matter how to slice them. Butler is at least a big time arm who can crank it over 95 MPH. Fangraphs had him as their #45 prospect in all of baseball and praised his “knockout changeup”. If he’s ever going to be in a position to roster, it’s tonight.
Jon Niese. Good luck. I mean seriously. A few days ago, I called John Danks the worst regular starter in baseball. If Danks is the worst, Niese is the second-worst. This is a guy who hasn’t struck out more than seven hitters per nine innings in any of the last four seasons. In his last two starts, he’s surrendered 20 hits, nine ER and four HRs in just 10.1 IP. He’s giving up plenty of long-balls to the tune of seven already this season (which leads the league). Now he has to face the Chicago Cubs! Admittedly, if there is a weakness for the Cubs it’s against LHP, but there really is no weakness. They are matchup proof and have Arrieta on the hill. They are sizable favorites and should have no problem handling Niese.
Where do I start with Jon Moscot? He’s been very consistent this season. Unfortunately for him, it’s been consistently bad. 15.2 IP this year has seen him surrender 13 runs, five HRs, 9 walks and only strike out six batters. He literally has the worst xFIP, worst K/9, worst BB/9, and worst HR/9 on this slate. Also he’s pitching in one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league. I’m not going to overthink this one. For all his efforts, he gets the San Francisco Giants tonight who have scored the 6th most runs this season and will relish the opportunity to play away from AT&T Park. As if things weren’t bad enough, the Giants strike out only 16.2% of the time, the second fewest in the league. This has all the ingredients for a short night for Moscot.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.