Oh man, Jake Arrieta ($13,800) is going to be highly-owned but how can you avoid him in cash games? He’s been the best pitcher on the planet over the course of his last fifteen starts, which includes two no-hitters. He was dominant in his last outing against the Reds, which produced that second no-no. He’s pitched at least seven innings in every game this season, he’s 4-0 and is a massive favorite to get another win tonight against the Brewers. Milwaukee owns the third-worst K% (25.8%) in the last seven days and ranks dead last with a .206 batting average on the road this season.
Today’s Projections | 2016 Game Logs Database | Player Scoring Calendar
It’s difficult to look past Marco Estrada ($7,100) who boasts the highest K/9 (10) on the slate, for anyone with more than 5 IP. He’s kept the ball in the park this season, allowing only one HR in 18 IP. Tonight he will battle the White Sox who rank 25th in wOBA and 24th in runs scored this season. He’s a slight favorite and this game is being played in the hitter friendly Rogers Centre, but he remains one of the more appealing options in this price range.
If you want a super-contrarian play, consider Jon Gray ($6,300). Yes, targeting pitchers at Coors is rarely my cup of tea, but Gray has been a massive strikeout producer over his small sample with the Rockies the last two seasons. Gray racked up ten Ks in five innings during his first start this season against the Dodgers. Strikeouts are so valuable on DraftKings, that I think Gray could be a sneaky good option if he can hang in there for five innings or so without getting blown out. I suspect his GPP ownership to be under 5%.
I love stacking the Diamondbacks tonight against Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has been a shell of himself this season, with an 0-3 start that has led to a 5.95 xFIP, the highest on the slate. His 4.03 BB/9 is certainly concerning for a guy who is usually deadly accurate. He’s been knocked around by all teams including the Braves and Padres who are bottom of the barrel offenses. Arizona is a much better offensive team, especially at home where they have the second-best wOBA in the league. They have potent bats and play in an extremely hitter friendly park. I suspect the general public won’t target Wainwright based on name recognition, but now appears to be a good time to do so.
To say Jarred Cosart has been bad, would be generous. In only 14.2 IP this season, he’s allowed 16 hits and 15 BBs. that is a TON of baserunners. It’s no surprise that he’s sporting an ERA that’s pushing 8.0. Cue the Los Angeles Dodgers who have started slow by their own standards, but still own plenty of firepower to be able to beat up on Cosart tonight. The lackluster start for the Dodgers and the fact that this is the last game on the slate should drive their ownership down significantly.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.