I’m only slightly bullish on Aaron Nola tonight, but he’s worth discussing. Here’s an image I tweeted out yesterday. This shows the top 10 DraftKings pitchers this season ranked by DraftKings points per game:
Notice the star power on that list and it’s Aaron Nola who checks in at #10. His 9.6 K/9 has been his key to success and is the highest on this slate. His xFIP is the best on the slate and he’s pitched at least six innings in eight of his nine starts this season. I don’t love the American League matchup with the Tigers, but Nola is sporting a 1.32 ERA on the road this season and should benefit from the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Comerica Park.
Remember when Steven Matz gave up 7 ER in his first 1.2 IP of the season? Well, he’s surrendered six total ER in the 40 innings since that dreadful start. He has the lowest ERA in the league since April 17th. The only thing he’s racking up more than strikeouts is groundballs, which is an excellent combination. Tonight he faces the Nationals who are simply treading water, checking in at 16th in terms of wOBA this week. The concern here is that the Nats own the best wOBA versus LHP this season, which could drive down the ownership of Matz.
The Rays are making for an under-the-radar stack tonight. They are almost always overlooked due to lack of star power, but this team is producing in a big way right now. Only the Tigers have a better wOBA in the L7 and they have the third-best wOBA in the L14. As we keep pulling back, they also own the third-best wOBA in the L30 days. This is not a fluke! No team has hit more HRs than the Rays in the last thirty days and it’s not really close. Now they will face Justin Nicolino who has been brutal this season. He’s sporting the worst xFIP on the slate while striking out 1.84 batters per nine. That is not a typo. In 29.1 IP this season, Nicolino has struck out six batters. This is the hottest offense versus the worst pitcher. Stack accordingly!
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.