Two solid starter options in the Miami/Dbacks game. Take a look at Rubby De La Rosa ($7,700) as a nice contrarian option. De La Rosa has made seven appearances this season, but only started four of those games. Let’s look at his last two appearances, both of which have been in a starting role. Over those two games, De La Rosa threw 13 innings, allowed one run and struck out ten against the Pirates and the Cardinals. If you’ve been paying attention, you know that those are likely the top two offenses in the league this season. What’s even more impressive is that he put up those numbers in two games at Chase Field which is extremely hitter-friendly. He earns a big boost tonight heading to Miami to take on the Marlins. Marlins Park allows the third fewest HRs and the Marlins rank 20th in wOBA at home this season.
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Another lefty against the Dodgers in Drew Smyly ($10,900). This is exactly what I wrote yesterday with Matt Moore facing the Dodgers: No team has a worse wOBA in the last seven days, they are striking out the 10th most in the league and have scored the second fewest runs in that span. They’ve been dreadful against lefties, ranking 24th in wOBA. Tropicana Field is a pitchers-haven, allowing the second fewest runs this season. Even after Moore just shelled last night, all of that still stands today. Smyly has been excellent this season, racking up 10.64 K/9 which is third on the slate. He hasn’t pitched less than 6 innings in any game this season and has racked up 36 strikeouts over his last four starts.
This is a big time matchup between Jon Lester and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Lester has been excellent this season, but there are some indications that he may be achieving. His 2.83 xFIP is impressive, but I have concerns about him being able to sustain that. He’s sporting a ridiculous 94.7% LOB% which is just unsustainable. The league average is between 70-72%. Tonight he has to battle the Pirates who are swinging big sticks this season. They own the league’s second-best wOBA this season and 5th best in the last seven days. They have completely destroyed LHP this season, with the league’s top wOBA and lead the league with a 39.1% Hard%.
C.C. Sabathia is a shell of his former self and it’s been that way for awhile. He hasn’t posted a sub-4.7 ERA since 2012. I actually think Sabathia has been lucky to only have a 5.06 ERA this season, considering he’s allowed 25 hits and 11 walks in just 21.1 IP. That’s a ton of baserunners! The only thing he hasn’t been burned by is the long-ball, only surrendering one this season. That’s uncharacteristic for Sabathia who surrendered 28 HRs in 2015 (5th most in the league) and another 28 in 2013 (7th most in the league). I excluded 2014 because he only pitched in eight games but gave up 10 HRs. The Baltimore Orioles get the pleasure of facing Sabathia tonight who rank 10th in the league in wOBA versus LHP. The O’s have slugged 34 HRs this season, 5th most in the league. The Orioles benefit from the friendly confines of Camden Yards where the Orioles have the second best home wOBA in the league.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.