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Elfrid Payton ($6,400) is a GPP dream. He’s wildly inconsistent, but when he has a great game, he goes absolutely nuts. He has scored 40+ twice in the last five games which was over 6x value in both games. He’s not known for his scoring prowess, but has posted double digit games in five of six. This game should have a decent pace and the Nuggets have been miserable against PGs this season, allowing the second most points to the position.
How about Shane Larkin ($4,300) as a really nice cheap play today? Larkin has earned 21+ minutes in four of five and it was worth noting that he was on the court in “crunch time” against the Warriors on Sunday night. He’s a high-energy player who can score a variety of ways. He’s averaging 26.1 DraftKings points per game over his L4, which would be 6x value for him today. He’s flashed upside, scoring 31.75 and 35.75 in two of his last three games. He will see a nice boost from this battle with the Rockets own the league’s 5th fastest pace.
Remember when Will Barton ($5,900) laid an egg and returned his owners 3.75 DraftKings points on Nov 24? So do I! Many wrote off Barton on the spot, but the dynamic scorer has averaged 29.3 DraftKings points per game in the six contests since that terrible outing. He’s a legitimate scoring threat for the Nuggets and he’s playing 30+ minutes every night. He’s a lock for double digit shot attempts and has as much upside as anyone in this price range.
It’s worth noting that Allen Crabbe ($3,400) has seen a significant uptick in minutes and usage for the Blazers. He’s posted four consecutive double digit scoring games while returning an average of 21.25 DraftKings points per game in that span. He only needs 20.4 DK points tonight to reach full 6x value and would provide a ton of roster flexibility at his price point.
It’s going to be hard to avoid Paul George ($10,200) today. George has been ridiuclous this season and he’s coming off a massive 48-8-3 line that earned him 71.5 DraftKings points against the stingy Utah Jazz. Fast forward to today and he gets a massive boost against the Warriors who play at lightning speed. Also, Vegas has this game listed at 211.5 which is nearly 14 points higher than the Pacers average line this season.
We’ve talked before about the opportunity presented to Derrick Favors ($7,900) for the short-term. With Rudy Gobert out, Favors is the only man in the paint for Utah and he will be asked to take on a serious offensive role. He took full advtange with a 35-13 game on Saturday night for 57 DraftKings points. His price has moved higher, but still not high enough to fade in a good matchup with Sacramento.
Some excellent high-end options at center today, but my favorite is Brook Lopez ($7,700). Lopez is an offensive animal, who threatens a 20-10 line on a nightly basis. He should be able to take advantage of a soft Rockets interior, especially with Dwight Howard’s minutes expected to be limited today. Lopez is a near lock for 20 shots in a game boasting the second highest total on the slate and a 4.5 point spread indicating that this game should be close to the end.
If you want value, Steven Adams ($3,800) has been excellent for the Thunder as of late. In the last three games (that he played at last 15 minutes), he’s posted 27.75, 18.5 and 26.5 DraftKings points. All of which would be a great return for Adams tonight. He’s not a prolific scorer, but he’s likely to close in on double digit rebounds and the Grizzlies have been shredded in the paint this season. A nice flier if you need to save cap space.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to tip-off! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.