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If you can stomach it, Kyle Lowry ($8,300) is the perfect GPP play for today. Even on a four game slate, I expect dismal ownership. He hasn’t hit value in nearly two weeks and was ejected from Sunday night’s game against Sacramento. Things have been really bad for Lowry which will keep many owners away. On the plus side, he still have a ton of factors in his favor today. Despite this rough patch, he’s been great this season and is still averaging 41.8 DraftKings points per game. He fires a ton of shots every night, nearly one every two minutes, which is amongst the league’s elite rates. I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder tonight in a great matchup with the Mavs and aging Deron Williams.
The value play at the position is pretty straight-forward and it’s Lou Williams ($5,400). Williams has earned his owners at least 26 DraftKings points in six straight games while logging big minutes for the Lakers. Williams has been earning his wages from beyond the arc and has gotten to the free throw line at an excellent rate, earning 25 FTAs over his last four games. This game has the highest total on the board with only a 5 point spread, so the Lakers should be able to avoid the blowout.
This feels like it could be a big time night for Dwyane Wade ($6,900). We’ve talked plenty in the past about his home/road splits, but if you don’t remember, Wade averages a full five DK points more at home than on the road this season. There is a chance that the Heat backcourt is especially thin tonight with Tyler Johnson ruled out and Goran Dragic currently listed as questionable. The offense runs through Wade anyway, but if Dragic can’t suit up, I expect him to handle the ball even more than usual.
The Small Forward position is terribly ugly for tonight, especially in Gallinari can’t suit up. I am intrigued by Chandler Parson ($4,600) who is still technically on a minutes restriction, but it seems to be around the 30 minute mark. He logged 32 versus Memphis on Friday Night and has had plenty of time to rest before tonight’s game with Toronto. He’s a bargain if he begins playing big minutes for the Mavs. He can get hot at a moment’s notice and can contribute in a few categories. A stellar 16-7-7 line against the Grizzlies resulted in 37.25 DraftKings points. You’d be thrilled with 27 DraftKings points tonight, which is what he needs to his 6x value. At a position this thin, I am willing to take on greater risk for greater reward.
If you thought SF was bad, PF might be worse. I do like Patrick Patterson ($4,100) who is earning more minutes each night for the Raptors and is coming off the best game of his season. An 18-8 line for 37 DraftKings points might kickstart a nice run of additional minutes for PP. He can contribute on the glass and he’s an above average defender who can tack on a few steals. He appears to be a solid value play with a excellent chance to provide a 5x return.
I am still high on Ersan Ilyasova ($5,100). He’s probably the most overlooked Piston, but he’s a solid contributor to the team. He starts and logs 30+ minutes a night. His production has been excellent, returning 5x value in seven of ten, 6x value in five of ten and 7x value in three of ten. There’s not much more to say, he’s solid and that’s plenty of production for a mid-tier salary.
I am likely to employ the two center strategy in most lineups. I think it’s clearly the deepest position. Marc Gasol ($7,500) is plug and play against the Sixers. Not only has he been a very productive player (scoring 50+ DK points in two of four), but the Sixers are going to have their hands full trying to defend him. If Gasol draws Okafor, he should be able to man-handle the rookie defender. Gasol’s ability to step out and knock down a jumper will be difficult for any Sixers big man to stop. Gasol probably has one of the higher floors of the position.
In terms of GPPs, I really like Bismack Biyombo ($5,200). He is a vastly superior athlete compared to anything the Mavericks can throw at him. He is a prolific rebounder, averaging 14.75 per game over his L4. He doesn’t provide much on the offensive end, but anything he can tack on is a bonus. He’s also averaging over two blocks per game in his L6, so there’s plenty of ways that Biyombo can rack up the points. This is a plus matchup that should stay close to the finish.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to tip-off! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.