I might regret this, but I am fading Tom Brady ($8,500) this week. He has been QB1 this season and hasn’t scored less than 25 points in any game, but that streak might be in serious risk this week. The Jets defense has been outstanding this season, only surrendering an average of 11.39 points per game to opposing QBs. That’s the second fewest in the league. In the last two seasons, the Jets have caused Brady some serious issues. In their last four meetings, Brady has averaged only 13.26 DraftKings points per game while averaging 18.7 DraftKings points versus every other opponent. Throw in the added factor of Darrelle Revis on the opposite site of the ball and there is too much risk for me to be confident at his huge price.
Andrew Luck ($7,600) removed a lot of concern as he threw the ball 50 times and racked up 30.98 DraftKings points last week. Luck seemed a little rusty, but didn’t show any signs of still being injured. Luck now gets the dream matchup of facing New Orleans and their porous secondary. The Saints have allowed the 2nd most DraftKings points to opposing QBs. Luck might have the highest floor of any QB this week.
The only guy with a better matchup than Luck? Well, that would be Carson Palmer ($6,700). Palmer continues to be incredibly efficient, averaging 0.59 points per dropback (6th best in the league). He’s also a bomber and has the deepest average depth of target this season. The Ravens have been miserable and have allowed opposing QBs to put up 25+ points on them, four out of six week this season.
Blake Bortles ($5,400) is now QB6 this season but priced this week as QB15. He’s averaging 26.7 DraftKings points in the L3 games and gets another prime matchup with BUF. The Bills have been decimated by QBs this season, ranking 23rd in the league against the position. There is just so much opportunity for Bortles, who has dropped back 270 times this season, good for second most in the league (Rivers).
Another case of great opportunity will be Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,100). The Jets are listed as a 9 point underdog against the Patriots, so it’s safe to assume that they will have to throw a ton to stay in this game. Fitzpatrick has been very solid for the Jets and is coming off a 26.22 DraftKings point performance versus the Redskins. Fitzpatrick has never returned his owners less than 3x value this season and the matchup with the Patriots is very good. The nature of their games have allowed the Patriots to surrender the 4th most DraftKings points to opposing QBs.
This feels like a week where the Quarterbacks are mis-priced. A few too expensive and a few much too cheap. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.