What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone had a profitable week last week and jumped about the Jordan Spieth-Daniel Berger stack that could have been played by reading this article alone! Let’s make it back-to-back weeks of solid picks and strategy, even though this week is one of the uglier ones on the schedule.
The touring pros will head to TPC Potomac, just outside of Washington D.C. for the 2017 Quicken Loans National. This event is usually played at Congressional, but this year it is returning to a course that hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since the 2006 Booz Allen Classic. The course went through a major overhaul from then to now, so we have zero course history to look at when making our picks. There were however two Web.Com events played at this track in 2012 – Neediest Kids Championship and in 2014 – Mid-Atlantic Championship, so if you want to take a peek at those leaderboards, there are definitely some interesting names to be found.
From what I have heard and read on Twitter, TPC Potomac is a tighter than average Par 70 course, that measures just over 7,100 yards. It will require accuracy off the tee and precise iron play in order to make birdies. Zac Blair mentioned on his Twitter page that the greens are very firm (I believe the D.C. area is going through a dry spell) and that the rough is up. That will put an even greater emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach, than usual. I am also looking at Strokes Gained:Around the Green, Par 4 Scoring Avg, Birdie or Better %, Bogey Avoidance and Good Drive Percentage.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Rickie Fowler – $12,000
The top of the board this week is extremely thin. I will sprinkle ownership on all three golfers, but if I had to pick one to build a cash team with or go overweight on, it’s Rickie Fowler. He has just been so damn consistent this season compared to the other options it’s pretty much a no brainer. Fowler is the clear favorite to win this week and is obviously the least likely to miss the cut. If you have to back only one golfer from +$10k, it’s 100% Fowler.
Marc Leishman – $9,800
Marc Leishman is on a roll lately. He has made 10 of his last 11 cuts, and has thrown his name in the mix two of the last three weeks. He leads the field in SG: APP over his last 12 rounds, and his forth in SG:TOT over that same span. Leishman is a perfect place to start building cash lineups, as he will give you the flexibility required to avoid some of the trash that lingers below the $7k mark.
Brendan Steele – $8,900
Brendan Steele once again comes in underpriced given his recent form lately and this season as a whole. He was was $9,000 last week and I was all in. His priced dropped ever so slightly after a T14 at The Travelers, forcing me to double down. Steele ranks 1st in my weighted stat model, ranking inside the top 25 in every stat category I am looking at. His Par 4 scoring average is incredible and he is one of the best ball strikers and scramblers in the field. All in on Steele…again.
Danny Lee – $7,800
Danny Lee will likely be one of the highest owned golfers on the slate, and I am more than okay with that. His form has been incredible as of late, with three top 6 finishes in his last five events. In his last 12 rounds on Par 70 courses, Lee ranks 2nd in this field in SG:TOT. He also ranks 13th in this field in SG:APP. He is underpriced relative to his form and betting odds, which currently sit at 33/1. Love me some Lee this week.
Luke List – $6,900
If you find yourself below the $7k range this week, trying to fill out a stars and scrubs lineup, my first choice would be Luke List. Known as a bomber, List actually thrives on shorter, more accuracy style types of courses. On Par 70 courses with hard to hit fairways, List ranks 5th in the field in SG:T2G over his last 12 rounds. That is a shocking number based on the type of golfer we think Luke List is. Back in 2012, List finished T13 at a Web.com event hosted at TPC Potomac, proving he has what it takes to play well here.
Quicken Loans National Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Russell Henley – $9,200
In a field this weak, finding pivot plays will be crucial to winning a GPP. Let’s start with Russell Henley who is already a winner this year on tour and is getting completely ignored at $9,200. He has the second fewest tags on FanShareSports in the $9k and up range. Have people forgotten about his T27 at the U.S. Open? If TPC Potomac is the accuracy/ball striking course it’s being described as, I think Henley has as good of a shot to win this event than anyone, and he could be less than 5% owned.
Ollie Schniederjans – $8,300
Ollie Schniederjans has taken a few weeks off lately, his last event being the Memorial, and is now not gaining any attention. He has had a solid rookie season, his best finish being at RBC Heritage. If TPC Potomac does play like a Pete Dye designed course, than Ollie seems like a solid fit. He is 13th in SG:APP and 12th in BoB%. Ollie only has eight tags on FanShareSports, and he is priced above one of the most popular golfers this week, Danny Lee. I will not be surprised to see Schniederjans name pop up on the leaderboard when nobody is paying attention.
Harris English – $8,000
Harris English is definitely overpriced, making him a GPP play only. He is however, entering this event with some of the best stats within the last 12 rounds. Over his last 12 rounds, English is second in the field in SG:APP and forth SG:ATG. The results have not been there, but he is still playing some solid golf. His downfall has been his off the tee game, which will likely be neutralized this week if he is forced to keep the driver in the bag. English will not garner any ownership and if he continues his run of solid ball striking, he could win some people some serious money.
Kevin Na – $7,400
Kevin Na is one of the better players in this field and is priced well below what I expected. What helps is that Na is sandwiched between two of the most popular golfers this week, Kim and Streelman, so his $7,400 price tag will not be taken advantage of as much as it should. Na ranks 10th in this field in SG:APP and forth in Par 4 scoring average. This is a great spot to get a golfer who should be chalky a low ownership.
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
J.B Holmes – $9,400
J.B. Holmes is coming off a solid performance at the U.S. Open, where he attracted some TV coverage and found himself inside the top 15 at tournament end. Holmes got off to an amazing start to begin the season, and now people will think he is back to his old self. However, Holmes has one of the worst SG:APP stats in this field over the last 12 rounds. Holmes will not be able to spray the ball off the tee at TPC Potomac like he was at Erin Hills. Expect the form we saw from Holmes a few weeks ago to return.
David Hearn – $8,100
This is a tough one for me. Hearn is my Canadian brethren, but this price is out of control. Hearn has shown two weeks of good form and he cracks the $8,000 mark? No thanks. His ownership will likely be fairly low because a lot of DFSers will be thinking along the same page. I would rather take all three Canadians priced below Hearn. Paying for a volatile golfer at his highest value will yield negative results in the long run.
Morgan Hoffman – $7,800
One of the key stats I am looking at this week is SG:APP, something Morgan Hoffman has struggled at all season. He ranks 103 in the field in that category, and 110th in his last 12 rounds. Hoffman’s SG:ATG is also extremely suspect and these two terrible stats could easily lead to a ton of bogeys. The greens will be firm and the rough will be high, making errants shots into the green costly. At $7,800, Morgan Hoffman will not be finding his way onto my rosters.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Justin Thomas – $10,900
Hoo boy did Justin Thomas do a complete 180 last week after his U.S. Open performance. JT did not show up last week at the Travelers and crushed a lot of lineups. Frankly, I am surprised he is teeing it up again – you’d figure some time off would be required. Either way, in this weak field, JT is getting over looked when he is clearly one of the five best players teeing it up. He has the fewest mentions on FanShareSports out of the five highest priced golfers. Everyone seems afraid to roster him after last weeks blow up, which will be a huge mistake come Sunday.
Billy Horschel – $8,800
Erin Hills did not treat Billy Horschel kindly. He drew a considerable amount of attention the week leading up to the U.S. Open and let everyone down. After a week off, a super inflated price and the sour taste left in people’s mouths, Horschel is getting no love. With only eight tags on FanShareSports, Billy Ho will fly under the radar this week. His corollary stats are solid, and his form has been boom or bust. He has a win already this year and came T4 just two tournaments ago. Horschel is definitely worth a few fliers is a field of this caliber.
Byeong Hun An – $8,600
One of the most profitable strategies in DFS is to target players the general public is choosing to ignore because the flame has burnt out. That’s what it seems like is happening with Byeong Hun An this week. He has the eight tags on FanShareSports, this after three straight weeks of 30+ tags. I have said it before and I will say it again, he is an elite ball striker whose achilles heel is is putter. One of these weeks everything will click and An will be in contention on Sunday. I have a feeling this is the week, when everyone has finally given up on him.
Kyle Stanley – $7,600
Stanley was one of the most popular plays last week on DraftKings and didn’t quite come through with his T57 finish. He is now $1,000 cheaper, which is likely keep his ownership relatively high, but I think the general public will be off of Stanley. He is a statistical master, which is something not everyone looks at. He is a fantastic price for a field of this strength and if there is an event he can finally come through in after numerous chances at the top, the Quicken Loans National feels like a perfect fit.
Thanks for reading The Quicken Loans National preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!