Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week the unexpected value shows itself in a bigger way than usual. With The Memorial being a pretty popular event among the games elite, we find value in names like Si-Woo Kim who had a very rocky start to his 2017 season while struggling with injury. This is obviously not taking into consideration the fact that he won the Players less than four weeks ago which seems to have some play in his nearly 100:1 odds to win the tournament despite the near minimum salary price tag that comes with Si-Woo. The other value that seems to stand out when it comes to the odds is Kevin Tway who also comes in at near minimum price at $6,500 but has been playing some of the best golf in the field over the last six weeks with two top five finishes and a twentieth place finish as his worst in that span.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. There isn’t much to go off of this early in the week, however I suspect this will be a week where there is a cluster effect particularly in the lower salary ranges. With some of the value that’s out there, I think there is some potential for 3-4 names in the lower salary range to become extremely popular while other names could go relatively under the radar. One of those under the radar types this week could be Pat Perez who has been one of my favorite golfers throughout 2017. He consistently performs well on almost all course types, and his price never seems to go up despite the upside and consistency he offers. After his recent missed cut (one of the few he’s had all year) I suspect he will fall off of most peoples radars. Another golfer in a very similar situation is Jason Dufner, who is well publicized to have worked heavily on his putting game all off season and it seems to be showing. It seems with his added putting skill the regular 45th place finishes of 2016 are starting to become top 25 finishes with some real upside mixed into the fold. I’ll take this opportunity to jump back on a golfer who most will overlook as a result of one bad finish in difficult conditions.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple of interesting standouts this week, both of which will make my rosters in GPPs with almost definite certainty. The first of which most notably was a back to back winner this season, but more recently has only played three times in three months including an MDF and missed cut. If you haven’t guessed the name yet, I’m talking about Justin Thomas. Look for JT to have low ownership and the skill to win on any given week. All of that being said, I’m not sure this is the week I want to attack Justin Thomas. On a course that is going to be a second shot course that requires good proximity and scrambling and some accuracy off the tee, I don’t know that this track favors JT enough to really want to dive head first into rostering him too heavily in GPPs. The other golfer who needs to be mentioned is Charl Schwartzel who is priced under $7,000 and has an astounding 20th rank in the world. Charl defiitely stands out as a golfer who could be affected by the clustered ownership I mentioned above, so don’t look for Charl’s price to go unnoticed. Contrary to JT, Charl seems to have the game that fits this course to the ‘T’ and his course history paints the same picture. With six made cuts in his last six tries, four top twenty finishes, and two top tens Charl has some of the best course history in the field, and as such I’ll be playing him in all formats.
The Memorial Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.