Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I am extremely pleased to say that this week one of my favorites over the past few months is one of the most obvious standouts on the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart we’ve seen all season. This week brings us a couple of very interesting potential value spots, the first of which is Danny Lee who was completely off my radar until now. After a closer look Danny Lee has three top twenty-five finishes in his last four events. He doesn’t exactly shout “upside” but is certainly worth a small bit of exposure in GPPs in a weaker field this week. The other standout when comparing Vegas odds is Dominic Bozzelli who has roughly 130:1 odds to win and is near the minimum salary. I won’t be going overboard on Bozzelli but definitely will be taking a shot on him as a flier.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week is a bit tough given the week field, which ordinarily comes with ownership that is a bit more clustered on a few golfers more so than usual. Given that it’s early in the week it’s tough to know for sure who those players will be, but early on it seems Tyrrell Hatton may be a candidate for low ownership. With nearly 30% ownership during the masters where he missed the cut I expect most to have an ugly pit in their stomach at the mention of Hatton, which means one of the strongest players in the field is going to be low owned and under priced: Sign me up!
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart.
What an interesting chart this week when comparing Salary Vs. OWGR. The weak field in this event really shows, however there are some really interesting potential values this week. the biggest standout at this point is Danny Willett who is just north of $7,000, yet is the 17th ranked golfer in the world. This marks one of the largest skill vs salary differentials we’ve seen, largely due to Willett’s poor form entering the tournament. The alternative is Russel Henley who is one of the highest priced golfers in the field, yet is only the 61st ranked golfer in the world. My suggestion is don’t over react to Henley’s recent form and adjust accordingly.
RBC Heritage Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.