by EPattersonFS | Nov 1, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed the Asian swing. We are back on North American soil this week with a full field event and a CUT!!! Finally.
It’s time for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open in Las Vegas Nevada. TPC Summerlin is the host course, which is a 7,255 yard Par 71 track. It has been the host of this event since 2008 and the scores typically reach the -20s. This is one of the easiest courses the touring pros will play so expect a lot of birdies and eagles, thanks to two very reachable Par 5s.
TPC Summerlin is a second shot golf course, so I will be weighting Strokes Gained Approach as the heaviest stat in my model. Recent winners and top 10 finishers at this event have exceeded in approach shots, rarely relying on the off the tee game. Since so many birdies do get made this week, Birdies or Better Gained will be extremely important. I will also sprinkle some weighting on Strokes Gained Around the Green, GIRs Gained and Bogey Avoidance to round out the rest of the stats.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Kevin Chappell – $10,200
Kevin Chappell was an easy call for me at the top. The high priced golfers on DraftKings isn’t pretty this week, so Chappell immediately stood out as the best value in this range. He is one of the class players in this field and is coming off his first President’s Cup. You would have to think he already has Ryder Cup on his mind. He is one of the best birdie makers in this field and if he is on, can lap the competition this week. The savings you are getting on Chappell can allow you to built some really solid lineups despite the lack of talent in the field. He’s a no brainer in the $10K+ range.
Patrick Cantlay – $9,700
Patrick Cantlay continues to impress. He flew over to China to play in the HSBC Champions event and casually cruised to another T15. A 73 on Sunday took him out of the top 10, but it was still a solid performance to kick off his 2017-2018 campaign. He begins the quest to pick up his first win on the PGA Tour, and the Shriners Open feels like an ideal spot to get the job done. He is accurate off the tee, can dial it in with his approach game and avoids making big numbers. He is one of the few golfers that has the complete package in the field. His price tag of $9,700 can still be considered a value.
Charley Hoffman – $9,000
Rarely am I a Charley Hoffman guy, but for $9,000 in this field, he becomes a must play. Like Chappell, Hoffman is coming off of an impressive President’s Cup and will be looking to make the trip to France for the Ryder Cup. He may as well get the season started on the right foot this week. Not only is Hoffman one of the top five players in the field, he is also playing with some added incentive. Hoffman has pledged to donate 100% of his winnings this week to the victims of the Las Vegas tragedy. You would think this added motivation will help him climb the leaderboard, as no one in the field wants to make the cut more than Hoffman. I’m all in.
Seamus Power – $7,700
Seamus Power played remarkably well last week at the Sanderson Farms but was let down by his around the green game. That does worry me slightly, as SG:ARG is one of the stats I am looking at, but Power had his worst week of chipping so far in his career losing four strokes on the field. He was elite from tee to green and if he continues that play he will have no problem getting around TPC Summerlin. Power is one of the best scorers in this field and can definitely get to -20 if he is firing on all cylinders.
Harold Varner III – $7,200
HV3 is back. After a fantastic rookie season in 2016, Varner took a step backwards in 2017. However it seems as though he has a new focus for this season back to back top 26 finishes in the Asian swing after strong run in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. To finish the season, Varner gained strokes on approach shots in seven out of eight events, something we weren’t use to seeing in his rookie season. His price tag is extremely affordable and he offers a tremendous amount of DraftKings scoring potential.
Shriners Hospital Open Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Kevin Na – $9,200
Kevin Na has some interesting results at TPC Summerlin. In the past six years, he has missed the cut twice, withdrawn, finished T22, was the runner up in 2015 and won in 2011. It’s a second shot course which has Na written all over it. Perhaps his below average finishes in Asia have turned people away – he failed to post a top 40 finish in two tries this year. Na is now back at a course he has had lots of success on and no one will be playing him. He only has five tags on FanShareSports, one of the fewest out of the $9K+ range.
Martin Laird – $8,60
Martine Laird is a former winner of this event and only has five tags on FanShareSports. Perhaps his price is keeping people away, which is exactly what we are looking for when making a pivot. Laird is surrounded by chalky options Lovemark, Streelman and List, all drawing way more eyes and attention. Laird’s last time out was a T17 at the Safeway which isn’t anything to ignore. Take the low owned Party Marty in GPPs and who knows, maybe a repeat of 2009 is in the cards.
Scott Brown – $7,400
Has everyone forgot what Scott Brown did in both South Korea and Malaysia not that long ago? You could argue he is one of the hottest golfers entering the Shriners Open with a T23 and T5 in two pretty impressive fields. Brown has a top 10 at TPC Summerlin within the past three years, and has made 3/5 cuts. He only has one tag on FanShareSports so expect his ownership to be next to nothing.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Anirban Lahiri – $10,300
It’s no longer the Asian swing, so it’s no longer time to be paying $10,300 for Lahiri. Yes, he played very well at the CJ Cup and CIMB Classic, but we have seen him have success in the past overseas. He hasn’t played in this event within the last five years and is known as one of the most inconsistent golfers on tour. At $10,300, I will let others pay for the enormous risk Lahiri carries.
Jason Kokrak – $8,800
There is no question this is a weak field, but to pay $8,800 for Kokrak seems a bit much. He did have a nice showing at the Sanderson Farms last week, but he has next to no success at TPC Summerlin in the past. In the past five years, he has three missed cuts, at 74th and a T38. Those are brutal results and is well within the range of outcomes again this week. Kokrak gained 4.7 strokes on the field putting last week, a result that will be difficult to replicate.
Ryan Armour – $8,100
Ryan Armour is definitely a feel good story. PGA Tour journeyman picks up his first win at age 41. Seems like an ideal let down spot doesn’t it? His price has jumped all the way to $8,100 and people will still roster him because of last week’s result. Like Kokrak, Armour gained 7.7 strokes on the field putting last week, a result that seems very unsustainable. I’d be shocked if Armour finishes inside the top 10 and for that, he won’t find his way onto a single roster.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Gary Woodland – $9,600
Only going with one this week because there aren’t many golfers who played in the main DK slate last week (HSBC Champions) and disappointed. Hell, Woodland wasn’t one of those guys either but he did let us down a couple of times in Asia. In two no cut events, Woodland failed to crack the top 25 both times despite being heavily talked about as a potential winner in Malaysia. Over his past 12 recorded rounds however, Woodland has been crushing it with approach shots, but his putter has been letting him down like it usually does. I’m willing to roll the dice with a low owned Woodland.
Thanks for reading the Shriners Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Oct 24, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope the CJ Cup treated you well. New rule, never fade Justin Thomas. The guy is a monster, can win on demand and seems to be under owned far too often. Unfortunately we won’t have a chance to implement the new rule for a while. JT is taking some deserved time off.
Next up, we have the World Golf Championship – HSBC Champions from Shanghai, China. This event has been hosted by the Sheshan International Golf Club every year since it was established in 2005. We have another 78 man field, no cut event to deal with. The limited field and guaranteed (sort of) four rounds of golf, pretty much makes every golfer an options in multi-entry tournaments. This isn’t your typical WGC event either, due to its location, not all of the super stars show up. The course is relatively easy, as the winning score five out of the last six years has been -20 or better. It is a 7,200 Par 72 course and even though less fairways are hit here compared to the average PGA Tour event, the fact that scores get a low as they do makes it seem that it’s a bombs away track.
For stats this week, I will be focusing heavily on Strokes Gained Ball Striking (Off the tee + Approach). I don’t care how these golfers get to the green, whether it be with accuracy or distance – get there more efficiently than the field and they’ll find their way onto some rosters. As mentioned before, we have another no cut event so birdies will be coveted. Birdies equal scoring on DraftKings, so Birdies or Better Gained will be a stat I’m weighing heavily. All the Par 3s are between 200-225 yards, so Par 3 Scoring – 200-225 will be looked at. Toss in Eagle Rate and Bogey Avoidance to complete the stat package.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Jason Day – $10,200
You can’t go wrong at the top of the board this week. DJ will be tough to fit in due to his price and the lack of talent at the bottom of the field. Deki and Rose have their strengths as well, but if I am going to build a single lineup, Jason Day will be the first golfer I click. I am going to look past the terrible bubble vest he wore in South Korea and focus on his numbers. He ranks 1st in my weighted stat model over the past 12 rounds thanks to his elite Bob Gained, eagle rate and P3 scoring from 200-225. He finished a respectable 11th last week at the CJ Cup as well. Day hasn’t played this event within the last five years. Perhaps this is a sign that he is confident in his game and is ready to bounce back after a disappointed 2017 campaign.
Paul Casey – $9,400
Paul Casey is becoming an extremely boring, but rewarding golfer to own in DFS. Just because he cannot win a golf tournament, doesn’t mean you should ever avoid him. You can’t roster six winning golfers. Casey came T7 at the CIMB Classic and T19 last week at the CJ Cup, showing his form from 2017 has carried on into the fall season. He has three top 25s at the HSBC Champions in his last three appearances. Casey’s $9,400 price tag is very affordable in cash and I highly recommend you make room for him on your roster.
Ross Fisher – $8,400
Fisher is likely going to be the chalk of the week for many good reasons. He enters this week with back-to-back runner up finishes in the last two weeks. If it wasn’t for Tyrrell Hatton’s hot putter, he would have at least one win. Fisher has also had tremendous success at Sheshan International, T6 in 2016 and T3 in 2015. His form and course history make him an obvious strong play. The one reason to fade him would be fear his ownership gets out of control and exceeds 30%. I don’t think that will be the case. The majority of the people playing DFS will roster much more familiar names in his price range like Reed or Berger.
Tony Finau – $7,700
Finau’s price has been yo-yo’ing the last few weeks. He has been over $10K twice and now $7,700 twice in four events. That decrease in price will entice people to roster him, but the entire price range is littered with other solid plays that his ownership shouldn’t get over 20%. Finau ranks 4th in BoB Gained over the last 12 rounds and makes more eagles than most golfers in the field. He enters this week with a T26 at the CJ Cup and a 2nd at the Safeway Open. I like his price and form and I’m excited to see how Finau performs in his first ever WGC event.
Thorbjorn Olesen – $7,300
Thorbjorn Olesen is the sexy pick of the week that seems to be gaining traction. Olesen has a combination of recent form, tournament history and stats that make him a solid value play. Olesen has missed one cut in his last 12 events, a run that includes multiple top 10 finishes. He also seems to love playing at Sheshan GC. He has played here three times in the past five years, with his best finishing being a T6 in 2014 and worst being a T19 in 2015. Olesen also ranks 2nd in the field in SG:Putting on bent grass over the past 50 rounds.
WGC-HSBC Champions Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Brooks Koepka – $9,700
Brooks is back! We haven’t seen him since the Tour Championship, an event he came 6th in. This event should set up perfectly for him and yes, I’m aware of his T40 last year. He’s a birdie making machine and should give himself numerous looks at eagle as well. Remember, all we care about his DraftKings scoring and even if he finishes 20th, he has a great chance of finishing inside the top 10 in DK points. Koepka only has 11 tags on FanShare Sports, which is the fewest out of anyone priced above $9K.
Patrick Cantlay – $8,900
What happened to the hype that surrounded Patrick Cantlay all of last season? Cantlay had an incredible season, not missing a single cut in the 12 events he played. He made the Tour Championship despite playing only nine events prior to the FedEx Cup Playoffs. That is insane. Now priced at $8,900, no one is talking about him. Cantlay only has seven tags on FanShare Sports and will be one of the lowest owned golfers above $8K. Easily my favorite GPP play on the board.
Alexander Noren – $7,900
Noren is priced in a crowded price range, surrounded by chalky options Fisher, Hatton, Molinari and Finau. What a great time to pivot. Noren doesn’t have the best recent form – T38 at the Italian Masters two weeks ago and a missed cut prior. However, he did come T12 at this tournament last year, can make enough birdies and is known for hitting a ton of greens in reg. Noren has yet to prove himself on a big time stage since jumping up into the top 10 in the world, but this could be the event he does. It still has a Euro Tour vibe to it, which is what he needs.
Hudson Swafford – $7,200
Swafford ranks 9th in my weighted stat model and is 10th in SG:BS over the past 12 rounds in this field. He has the length and birdie making ability that can go a long way at Sheshan GC. He is priced only $300 more than the dead minimum, which is crazy for the form he has entering this week. If the stats don’t sell you, Swafford only has three tags on FanShare Sports, and will be way less owned then Haas, Olesen and Li.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Henrik Stenson – $9,600
In a field of this strength with no cut, it’s difficult to narrow down automatic fades. So taking a look at golfers that have no chance to make my cash lineup, let’s begin with Henrik Stenson. Stenson has great course history, coming T2 last year and T11 in 2015. However, Stenson hasn’t played since the BMW Championship compared to most of the other top plays who have a few events under their belt this fall. Let’s also not forget Stenson does have the DGAF reputation if things go south on Thursday.
Lucas Glover – $7,800
Glover has had a strong Asian season with a T7 in Malaysia and T15 in South Korea. He is a golfer that will always light up the score sheet because of his elite tee to green game. With that said, I don’t like his $7,800 price tag – seems too high for a golfer with limited winning upside. The reason for that limited upside is his putter, especially on bent grass. Over the past 100 rounds, Glover ranks 59th out of the 61 golfers who qualified.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Jon Rahm – $10,000
Although Rahm didn’t have a chance to burn those who only play PGA DFS, he did miss the cut at his home event on the European Tour. A lot of people will look at his missed cut last week and figure he is out of form. You can imagine the amount of pressure Rahm would have putt on himself last week in Spain. Chalk that missed cut up to nerves, pressure and getting in his own way. Rahm will be under owned in a prime bounce back spot.
Xander Schauffele – $8,700
Ouu boy that was ugly. Those who backed Xander in a big way last week are feeling the burn after his 82 on Friday. He didn’t bounce back at all on the weekend either and fell to the bottom of the leaderboard. Xander has been playing a ton of golf lately which is a bit concerning, but his ownership will be non-existent this week. If bombers have an advantage at Sheshan GC, then Xander definitely has a shot. The conditions last week were miserable, perhaps it was a good week for Xander to take off and go through the motions. Time to load back up.
Si Woo Kim – $7,300
Si Woo struggled in his native country last week with a lot of expectations on him. We know how inconsistent he is – almost like extreme case of the Justin Thomas’s. Anyone who can win The Players is worthy to be in a GPP lineup or two in a no cut event. Kim doesn’t have a single tag on FanShare Sports, which gives you an idea of what his ownership will be.
Thanks for reading the HSBC Champions preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Oct 11, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! It’s time to pack our bags and head overseas to Malaysia for the CIMB Classic. This is the second leg of the fall swing series and will host a unique field, with a mix of PGA, Euro and Asian Tour golfers. We get a week off from the Web.com Tour Grads.
The event will be played at TPC Kuala Lumpur. It is a 7,000 yard Par 72 that will get eaten up but the elite golfers in this field. Justin Thomas has won this event two years in a row, posting a combined -49 under par. There is only 78 golfers in the field and there will be no cut, adding a wrinkle to this event we have seen in the past. The guaranteed 72 holes allows us to target golfers who may be perceived as volatile, but over the course of a full four rounds can return value by simply making more birdies than other golfers.
Stats for this week are pretty simple and are some of the key stats as they relate to DraftKings scoring. First, Birdie or Better Gained is a stat that can be found at FantasyNational.com. It is looking at who is making more birdies relative to the other golfers in the same event. It takes out some of the noise in the birdie or better percentage stat that compares all golfers without differentiating between courses. Strokes Gained:Approach and Strokes Gained Ball Striking (Off the tee + Approach) will also be incorporated into my model. I will also be taking a small piece of Eagle % and Bogey Avoidance.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Xander Schauffele – $9,700
The are pretty slim pickings at the top of the board this week. Thomas, Matsuyama and Casey are all good options and clearly the elite of the field, but my favorite golfer in terms of price, ownership and upside has to be Xander Schauffele. The reigning rookie of the year will look to get his sophomore season started on the right foot in Malaysia. He is only $9,700 and coming off of his Tour Championship win. Xander only has 17 tags on Fan Share Sports, way less than the golfers priced above him. Differentiate your lineups and start them with X.
Gary Woodland – $8,700
Over his past 12 rounds, Gary Woodland is 3rd in the field in SG:BS and 4th in SG:APP. He is one of the best birdie makers in the field and giving the fact that he is guaranteed 72 holes, He is a must play in all formats. Woodland turned his 2017 season around at the end of the year and will look to keep the momentum going into the 2018 season. It’s been a few years since Woodland has found success in Malaysia, but he had a runner up finish in 2014 and 2013.
Kevin Na – $8,200
I am going back to the well with Kevin Na. Despite his closing 77 at the Safeway Open, Na played very well and was in the mix on Saturday. Na has had lots of success at TPC Kuala Lumpur too. In his past four visits here, he has three top 10s, two of which were inside the top three. Na stands out statistically as well, ranking 2nd in SG:APP and 2nd in BoB Gained over his past 12 rounds.
Chez Reavie – $7,600
Even with back to back top 15 finishes and a run of 12 straight made cuts, Chez Reavie sees his price tag drop heading into the CIMB Classic. Reavie didn’t disappoint last week gaining 5.4 strokes on approach shots alone. Reavie won’t gain as much attention as he should because he will be deemed as a low upside play, but in a field of this strength he has the same potential to finish inside the top 10 as any of the elite golfers in the field.
CIMB Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Branden Grace – $9,200
This is strictly an ownership play. Grace is projected to see the lowest ownership of anyone priced above $9,200, despite his pedigree and recent performance at the President’s Cup. He only has three tags on Fan Share Sports. Grace has played at TPC Kuala Lumpur in the past, his best result being a T17 in 2015. In this limited field with no cut, targetting golfers whose ownership should be below 10% can be a difference maker. Most likely candidate for that this week has to be Grace.
Russell Knox – $8,100
Another golfer with next to no buzz is Russell Knox. He only has two tags on Fan Share Sports, likely due to his recent form. However, this no cut event provides an opportunity to roster some more volatile golfers. Knox finished T10 at this tournament last year and T21 in 2015. Over his past 12 rounds he ranks 14th in SG:BS and 21st in SG:APP, both reasonable numbers for a golfer who is considered to be struggling.
Nick Taylor – $7,600
Nick Taylor quietly finished T9 last week at the Safeway Open putting together a solid tournament gaining strokes in all categories. Now with only two tags on Fan Share Sports and priced below some of the most chalky options this week, Taylor is destined to be overlooked once again. He has played very well in back-to-back fall seasons and it looks like he will be making it three straight.
Sung Kang – $6,900
Sung Kang will not reach 5% ownership this week and in a field of only 78 golfers, sprinkling some Kang into your lineups will be beneficial. Kang finished T21 here last season and is entering the event with some decent form. He ranks 36th in the field in SG:APP over his past 12 rounds and tends to show up everyone once in awhile. There are plenty of Asian Tour fliers out there this week, but why not go with a golfer who is dirt cheap and has had success on the PGA Tour.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Pat Perez – $9,000
I know it’s a weak field but come on – $9,000 for Pat Perez? Yes, he played solid through the FedEx Cup Playoffs but that should increase his ownership because people will remember those results. They won’t look at this poor course history, three straight finishes outside the top 30, or the fact that he lost 6.2 strokes tee to green at the Tour Championship. Take a pass on Perez at that hefty price and jump on one of the many options around him.
Anirban Lahiri – $8,200
Anirban Lahiri currently has the third most tags on Fan Share Sports and immediately that screams fade. Lahiri is one of the most inconsistent golfers on tour so any chance you can fade him while he is projected to be chalk, you have to do it. He did finish T3 at this event last year, but don’t ignore the four results prior which were all outside of the top 20. There is definitely some recency bias baked into his projected high ownership because of his showing at the President’s Cup and all eyes were watching that week. Let the variance in golf play out and capitalize when Lahiri likely under performs.
Keegan Bradley – $7,000
What did Keegan Bradley do last week to deserve this much attention? He ranks inside the top 10 in tags on Fan Share Sports after a missed cut at the Safeway Open. Perhaps it was his 6th place finish at the CIMB last year? Don’t forget about his T47 in 2015 either. Bradley is likely to see a lot of ownership being priced just $200 above the minimum. Chalky Bradley makes me want to run, far away.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Peter Uihlein – $7,700
Well, it looks like everyone’s shiny new toy from last week was completely dull. Uihlein was a huge disappointment at the Safeway Open, missing the cut and showing no signs of good form. With that said, he still owns the same skill set everyone was raving about a week ago, is $1,100 cheaper and won’t see near the amount of ownership he did last week. Uihlein also has the upper hand in terms of being accustomed to long travel times and time changes with his experience on the Euro Tour.
Jamie Lovemark – $7,500
Lovemark came out of the gate hot last week but was unable to follow up his opening round 67. He was over 20% owned in a lot of large GPP contests, and those owners have not forgotten about his mediocre T43. Lovemark is still one of the best birdie makers in this field and in a no cut event can pay off his salary simply by playing 72 holes. He’s worth owning in case we were all a week early on him.
Thanks for reading the CIMB Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Oct 4, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! After a one week offseason we are back! The 2017-2018 year is upon us and the The Safeway Open is here to kick it off.
The Safeway Open will take place at Silverado Country Club in Napa California. This course has played host to this event for the past three seasons, giving us a reasonable sample size to look at. Silverado is a 7,200 yard Par 72 that puts a strong emphasis on accuracy off the tee and a solid approach game. The last three winners here have all finished at -15 or better, so there are plenty of birdies to be made. The stats I will be looking at this week are Strokes Gained Approach, Birdie or Better %, Strokes Gained Putting, Fairways Gained and Scrambling.
What makes the Safeway Open an intriguing event, is the flooding of fresh new talent to the PGA Tour. It also adds a wrinkle into projecting results for this event because we just don’t know enough about a lot of the new faces. This is the best time of the year to pay close attention to the new guys on tour and see how they might stack up for the rest of the fall series and into 2018.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Kevin Na – $9,400
With no real desire to spend the big money for a golfer at the top, Kevin Na will be my cash game anchor this week, allowing for a more balanced roster construction. Na played very well to end the 2017 season, with two top 10s in his last four events. He has also had incredible success at this event – 7th in 2016, 2nd 2015. Accurate, good approach game and when he is on, Na can make a lot of birdies. He is as safe as they come this week – a nice bonus to go along with a discounted price tag.
Peter Uihlein – $8,800
I hope this isn’t the shiny new toy syndrome, but Peter Uihlein is super intriguing. After spending the entire season on the European Tour, Uihlein showed up to his first Web.com tour event and won it. He also contended a few times on the European Tour this season. It is a bit of a risky pick to roll with a guy who has very limited experience playing on the PGA Tour. However, if Uihlein is going to pick up a PGA Tour win in the 2017-2018 season, the fall swing season seems like an ideal time to get the job done.
Ollie Schniederjans – $8,300
Similar to Uihlein, Ollie Schniederjans has to be one of the favourites to pick up his first career win in the fall swing series. Ollie had a great 2017 season, although it didn’t end quite as well as he had hoped. He was the runner up at the Wyndham not too long ago, but went on to miss two cuts and come T66 at the BMW Championship. Ollie shouldn’t have an issue scoring at Silverado, as he is one of the best birdie makers in the field. If he can club down at the right times to keep the ball in play, I expect Ollie to be contending on Sunday.
Graham DeLaet – $7,500
Canadian bias? Perhaps. But Graham DeLaet is getting little respect with his $7,500 price tag. He was battling a back injury at end of his 2017 season, but has had some time to rest up. If he wasn’t 100%, he wouldn’t be coming back to compete in the Safeway Open. He is one of the best ball strikers in this field and when he is on, can easily be in a late pairing on Sunday. The trouble with DeLaet is if he misses fairways and misses greens, he does not have the short game to keep his head above water. That is the risk I am willing to take at his reasonable price.
Bronson Burgoon – $7,300
After losing his PGA Tour card for the 2017 season, Bronson Burgoon is back in our lives. Burgoon is intriguing because of his impressive end to the 2017 Web.com playoffs. He only played 10 events in 2017, but managed to make eight cuts and finish inside the top 10, three times. His last two events were both top 5 results, so he is in great form entering the fall swing series. With a lack of notable names in the low $7K range, finding a golfer with this type of recent form is rare.
Safeway Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Emiliano Grillo – $8,500
Coming off of his first President’s Cup appearance, Grillo is returning to the site where he picked up his first and only career victory. Now that the sophomore slump season has ended, it’s time for the former rookie of the year to live up to his potential. He entered the President’s Cup with three straight made cuts, something he struggled with all season. Grillo clearly has the game to win at this course, and with only five tags on FanShareSports, he is being glossed over by many.
Harold Varner III – $8,000
There were few golfers who were playing as well as Harold Varner III was to end the 2017 season. He was pumping out clutch performances to continue his run in the playoffs. It came to an end at the Dell Tech Championships, but Varner still has a streak of five straight cuts made. He stated in a recent interview that he didn’t take the 2017 season as serious as he needed too and knows what needs to change for the 2018 campaign. With only one tag on @FanShareSports, the time is now to jump on low owned Varner who is poised for a big fall season.
Bryson DeChambeau – $7,700
Surprisingly, Bryson DeChambeau is another golfer with only one tag on FanShareSports. He was a winner in the 2017 season and despite receiving a lot of criticism about his game, showed that he can compete with the big boys on the PGA Tour. On a course that rewards accuracy over distance, DeChambeau seems like a great pivot option off of the chalk (List, Saunders, Mitchell) that is currently in the $7K range.
Shawn Stefani – $7,000
After a less than impressive 2017 PGA Tour season, Shawn Stefani went down to the Web.com playoffs and got right. After two missed cuts, he finished the Web.com playoffs with a T20 and T2. Now by no means is this an endorsement of Stefani in cash games, but if you are looking to take a GPP flier on a golfer in good form, Stefani is that guy. Aaron Wise and J.J. Spaun will soak up a lot of ownership in the low $7K range, so you only need about 5% Stefani to be considered overweight.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Chesson Hadley – $8,100
Hadley is a familiar name this week because he has won on the PGA Tour before and had incredible results on the Web.com Tour this year. His price is just way too high with a field full of unknown. His ownership will be inflated because of the familiarity people have with his name. Hadley makes for the ideal candidate to pivot off of and go with a lower owned, equally variant golfer at a similar price.
Sangmoon Bae – $7,200
Sangmoon Bae has been the talk of the week so far. He is returning to the PGA Tour after two years of mandatory military service in South Korea. Bae was a fantastic player on tour a few years ago and won this event back in 2014. His shiny new toy status is through the roof right now, but let’s not forget he has played one competitive tournament in two years. His form is going to take a lot of time to get back to where it was. This is the easiest fade of the week.
Thanks for reading the Safeway Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Sep 19, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! The last week of the season is here! Thanks for sticking with us the entire way – we hope it was a fun and profitable season for everyone. Luckily the golf season never really ends as the fall swing season is right around the corner. But for now, let’s focus on the Tour Championship.
The Tour Championship will be held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. This event has been played here since 2004 and a variety of golfers have won here. It is a 7,400 yard Par 70, which rewards an all around style of game. It is worth noting that they use Bermuda grass at East Lake, so make sure if you are considering putting stats to factor that in. Statistically, golfers who have been average both off the tee and around the greens, but excelled in approach shots have done well here. For that reason, Strokes Gained Approach will be the number one stat for the week. Strokes gained off the tee, around the green and tee to green will also be considered. Birdie or Better Percentage will carry a heavy weighting because this event has no cut. I will also be looking at Fairways Gained and Strokes Gained – Par 4s.
As mentioned, there is no cut this week and the field is limited to just 30 golfers. That will make DraftKings lineup construction extremely important, especially for tournaments. Never be afraid to leave hundreds of dollars in salary on the table. The majority of lineups still spend the entire $50,000 salary cap, so the easiest way to differentiate is by spending much less. Ownership will be extremely important as well. Stay up to date on the which golfers are trending towards higher ownerships, and be ready to pivot off the chalk if an opportunity opens up and makes sense to do so. With only 30 of the PGA Tour’s best golfers, there aren’t that many duds in this field. If the chalk busts, and you have pivoted off of it, enjoy your winnings.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Justin Thomas – $9,900
This is a rare one. Despite the elite of elite at the top of the DraftKings pricing, starting lineups with Justin Thomas, an elite player in his own right, allows you to create loaded lineups from top to bottom. At $9,900, JT provides you with the winning potential and savings required this week. The bottom of the board is fairly ugly for this tight 30 man field. Thomas is one of five golfers who can win the FedEx Cup with a win this week at East Lake. Ignore his 47th last week at the BMW. He knew he was sitting pretty heading into this week and used it as a week off. A win this week solidifies his “Player of the Year” title and also lines his bank account with $10 Million. Motivation shouldn’t be an issue this week.
Justin Rose – $8,900
Likely the chalk of the week, Justin Rose at $8,900 is a must play. Not only is his recent form incredible (T10, T10, 2nd) but Rose has contended at East Lake a lot over the past few seasons. In his last four Tour Championships, Rose has two runner ups, a 4th and a 6th. He ranks 3rd in my weighted stat model over the past eight rounds, lead by his 2nd in SG:T2G and 4th in BoB% for this field. Pairing him with JT to begin your cash game will provide you with a bunch of wiggle room to fit other studs into your lineup. Rose is a lock for a T5 this week – jam him in.
Kevin Chappell – $7,600
In the $7K range, Kevin Chappell is the go to guy. He ranks 13th in my weighted stat model for the past eight rounds. He ranks 6th in BoB% and 7th in SG:Par 4s. As East Lake is a Par 70, Par 4 scoring will be a big factor over the four rounds. Chappell was the runner up here last year losing to Rory McIlroy in three man playoff. Patrick Cantlay and Matt Kuchar are priced right above Chappell and will soak up a lot of ownership. However, I expect Chappell to still be popular across all formats, so make sure you are overweight in GPPs.
Gary Woodland – $6,400
If lineup construction has forced you to dig deep into the DraftKings pricing, make sure you have at least $6,400 to roster Gary Woodland. He is the obvious value play this week because of his small run of good form. In the past eight rounds, he leads the field in SG:APP and is inside the top 10 in BoB% and SG:Par 4s. To pile on the good Woodland news, he has two top 10s at East Lake in his last two trips here. With his length and birdie making ability, DraftKings points should be flowing in all week long.
TOUR Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Ownership will be vital this week for all you GPP players out there. Check out FanShareSports.com to get a glimpse of who is being talked up and who is being ignored.
Rickie Fowler – $10,900
For as popular as Rickie Fowler is, he isn’t being mentioned as much as some of the other big boys this week. Fowler only has 12 tags on Fan Share Sports – compared to Rose with 29 and Spieth with 26. Fowler’s price could be causing the overlook. Since most people will be targeting Spieth or DJ, they cannot afford to roster two golfers over $10K. Fowler will be lower owned just because of his price. Staring GPP lineups with Fowler could turn out to be the most profitable decision of the week.
Brooks Koepka – $8,100
Brooks Koepka falls in the perfect situation if you are hunting for a low owned – high upside play. At $8,100, Brooks is below the uber chalk of Justin Rose and Marc Leishman and right above even more chalk, Cantlay, Kuchar and Chappell. Brooks will be completely ignored because of these other options even though he has some solid form entering the week. He has an outside chance to win the FedEx Cup, giving him the little (or a lot of $$$) extra motivation he needs to come out and perform.
Russell Henley – $6,600
It is not recommended to drop too far below the $7K mark, but if you are looking to go contrarian down there, Russell Henley at $6,600 is a solid option. Pat Perez looks to be the chalk this week, but Henley is right there with him in terms of key stats. Russ ranks 4th in the field in SG:APP over the past eight rounds, and has also been known as a Par 4 scorer. He came 12th here in 2014 – his only trip to East Lake in the past five years.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Hideki Matsuyama – $9,000
This one hurts, as I am a huge Hideki in no cut events promoter. However, Hideki has lost it since the PGA Championship and is having a very substandard playoffs compared to the other elite golfers. Although you are getting an almost guaranteed four rounds of golf from one of the world’s best ball strikers, his putting has been terrible and his approach game has been hit or miss. Hideki won’t be making any of my lineups this week.
Patrick Reed – $7,500
Patrick Reed came near DFL last week at the BMW Championship, losing strokes in all aspects of the game. Reed is rarely a golfer I target, so it doesn’t take much convincing to fade him. He has had no success at East Lake in the last three years, with only one finish inside of the top 20, a T19. The mid $7K range is loaded with other, better options, so there is no reason to risk it with Reed.
Kevin Kisner – $6,700
Unfortunately, Kevin Kisner’s season is over. Sure he is teeing it up this week in Atlanta, but he check out after the PGA Championship and the results show. He hasn’t had a finish inside the top 40 in the last four events and ranks last in my weighted stats ranking. He had a child recently and it can be assumed he is dying for the season to end to go home and spend some time with the family. Don’t be surprised if we see a Kisner WD early in the week.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Dustin Johnson – $11,400
Similar to the Justin Thomas situation, DJ was going through the motions at the BMW Championship, taking a semi week off, looking ahead to East Lake. DJ is another golfer who can win the FedEx Cup with win this week. If you are going to pay up for a +$11K golfer and dodge the Spieth chalk, DJ is a fine secondary option. He has played this event four times in five years and his worst finish is a T10. If you are going to fade DJ, don’t do it because he played poorly last week.
Paul Casey – $8,600
Paul Casey let us all down last week after he was deemed a lock by many as a T5 finisher. Surprisingly, Casey finished T33, his worst result since March. This is definitely not the time to abandon ship, as Casey is returning to a course he has back-to-back top fives at. He only has 13 tags on Fan Share Sports, so it’s clear people are looking elsewhere in the mid $8K range. Like Finau last week, this is the perfect time to continue to ride the Casey wagon.
Thanks for reading the Tour Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
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