by EPattersonFS | Sep 12, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Sadly, the end is near as we have reached the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Football season is in full force, but for you golf grinders out there, I appreciate your commitment to finishing the season strong!
The BMW Championship is on the schedule this week, played at Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois. Conway Farms is a 7,200 yard Par 71 that hosted this event in 2013 and 2015. If you glance at the leaderboards from those two years, you will see similar scores at the top, but completely different styles of golfers. In 2013, Conway Farms played as accuracy style course, with Zach Johnson leading the way, beating the likes of Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker and Luke Donald. In 2015, Jason Day took it down with Berger, Rory and DJ hot on his tail. Shoutout to Ryan Baroff (@RBaroff427) for this info tip, but in 2015, Conway Farms got rained on heavily, giving an edge to the bombers. I expect this season to play closer to the 2013 leaderboard, making me lean towards accuracy and stronger approach players.
With all that said, let’s look at some stats. First, Strokes Gained: Approach will carry the heaviest weight. Give me the guys who are knocking it close more often for 72 guaranteed holes. That’s right – this week is a no-cut event so birdie makers are king. That’s why Birdie or Better Percentage is my second highest weighted stat. No-cut allows us to gamble a bit more and have some volatility in our lineups. I’ll take a few bogeys with birdie upside over a guy like Bill Haas who is out there playing it safe. A few other stats I am sprinkling in is Par 3 and 4 Scoring Average and Strokes Gained: Putting. Par 3s this week will offer a few holes for golfers to differentiate themselves and score while others just make pars. The Par 5s are pretty much unreachable in two by most, so I’m less concerned than usual. Finally, the Bent grass greens at Conway will offer pure putting conditions giving everyone a bump, but also give the better putters a better chance from distance.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Jordan Spieth – $11,800
Jordan Spieth is going to win one of the next two weeks, so may as well load up now and not miss the boat. Spieth has two runner up finishes so far in the playoffs, and could arguably have two wins if it weren’t for an unfair playoff hole and the Justin Thomas buzzsaw. Conway Farms seems like a perfect fit for Spieth. His lack of distance won’t matter as much and he’ll have the chance to roll in a ton of birds. He also has two respectable top 16 finishes at this course. One more thing, Spieth ranks 1st in weighted star model. Okay, that should be enough, Jordan Spieth is an absolute must play.
Paul Casey – $9,200
When will this run end? Definitely not this week. Paul Casey is playing incredible golf and it is mind boggling he does not have a win. Casey had four top 5s in six events, the other two being a T11 at the U.S. open and a T13 at The Open. Every facet of his game is dialled in and he is priced $1,000 cheaper than he should be. There is no reason to believe Casey’s ball striking game won’t correlate well to Conway Farms. Lock him into your cash game and enjoy another top 10 finish.
Henrik Stenson – $8,900
Henrik Stenson is on quite the run himself, although not as impressive as Casey’s, impressive nonetheless. Since his MC at the U.S. Open, he has six top 20s in seven events, including a win at the Wyndham Championship. He ranks inside the top six of all the stats I am looking at over the past 12 rounds, lead by his incredible birdie percentage and par 4 scoring. Stenson also has a T10 under his belt at Conway Farms in 2015. Even though that year lent itself to bombers succeeding, we all know he isn’t that style of player. Stenson has all the tools to contend this week and I fully expect him to be there come Sunday.
Louis Oosthuizen – $8,800
Priced right below Stenson is my favorite GPP play of the week, Louis Oosthuizen. He is flying under the radar in the touting world, with only three tags on FanShareSports.com. Over his past 12 rounds, Louis ranks 8th in the field in SG:App, 9th in SG on Par 4s and 14th in SG: Putting. I’m shocked to see him generating as little buzz as he is, despite his two top 10s in his last three events. Conway Farms seems like a perfect setup for his style of game, and at a projected less than 10% ownership, makes for an outstanding tournament option.
Hudson Swafford – $7,000
With the lowest priced golfer set at $6,900 this week, it is crucial to find some low priced guys in order to jam in Spieth. Hudson Swafford is that guy this week and will be in a ton of my lineups. He ranks 25th in my stat model and really turned a corner last time out at the Dell Tech Championships. He gained 6.1 strokes on approach shots in Boston on his way to a T13 finish. It is slim pickings at the bottom of the DraftKings pricing this week, but Swafford is one guy I feel very comfortable with in about 30% of lineups.
BMW Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jon Rahm – $10,500
If it weren’t for Spieth, it would obvious that the player who is knocking on the door the hardest is Jon Rahm. He has a 3rd and 4th place finish so far in the playoffs and yet only has 12 tags on FanShareSports. It’s true that his biggest weapon won’t be as big of a factor as it usually is, however Rahm has been getting it done with the flat stick as of late. He leads the field in SG:Putting over his past 12 rounds, and did gain 6.1 strokes on approach shots two events ago. His last two events cannot be ignored and another win for Rahm could very well be in the cards.
Jason Dufner – $7,800
Finding low owned plays with upside this week will be crucial. Jason Dufner is one of those golfers. He only has two tags on FanShareSports at the moment, compared to Na and Leishman who both have over 11. Dufner didn’t fair the best at the Dell Tech, but his short game really let him down, losing 5.9 strokes around the green. I do not expect that to carry over to the BMW, as that was his worst around the green performance in five years. Dufner is a pure accuracy golfer, who depends on his approach game to score. A strong bounce back is well within the range of outcomes for Dufner this week, and his ownership in GPPs could fall below 5%.
Ryan Moore – $7,400
Ryan Moore was a very popular pick two weeks ago at the Dell Tech. He withdrew after a terrible first round and now people have moved on. Moore only has two tags on FanShareSports, even with his run of solid form and course history. Moore came T11 at Conway Farms in 2013, the event I believe will be the most similar to this year. In his past 12 rounds, not counting the Dell Tech, Moore ranks 2nd in the field in SG:APP, and 17th in SG on Par 3s. Like Dufner, Moore could very well be around 5% owned and show the form we were all hoping for two weeks ago.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Rory McIlroy – $9,400
There is no way in the world Rory will make one of my rosters this week. He is clearly injured and there is no reason why he should be playing out the rest of the season. At the Dell Tech, Rory was only $9,800 and missed the cut of a field of only 100. I highly doubt this extra week off would have healed his ailing back/rib injury that he has been dealing with all season. Don’t let the $9,400 price tag entice you – Rory is a trap this week and is probably the most likely to withdraw.
Sergio Garcia – $8,700
There is something up with Sergio Garcia’s game at the moment that is forcing me to steer clear of him this week. His lack of top 20s recently is alarming, and over the past three events he has played, he has lost 3.6 shots on approaches. Typically, Garcia is flawless tee to green. His price tag doesn’t allow us to take on the risk he presents right now either. If he was in the low $8K range, I’d be more intrigued, but I am finding it way too easy to find a few extra bucks and spend up for Oosthuizen or Stenson priced right above him.
Charley Hoffman – $7,600
Early signs are pointing towards Charley Hoffman being a popular pick this week at the BMW Championship. He has had an outstanding, consistent season, not having missed a cut since the RBC Heritage. However, last time out at was the first time Charley has lost strokes on the field since his last missed cut. Combine that with his less than impressive course history, T53 in 2015, 68th in 2013, and that creates some cause for concern. There are some other intriguing options in the $7K range that may offer some more upside at this point in time – Leishman, Schwartzel, Berger to name a few. Since there is no cut this week, aiming for guys trending towards a top 5 or top 10 finish is where you want to go in GPPs.
Chez Reavie –Â $7,500
Chez Reavie has been a sneaky play lately, making cuts and having a reasonable price tag. However, red flags have popped up when considering his strokes gained stats from the Dell Tech. He did make the cut, but he lost nine strokes tee to green. His putter was his saving grace two weeks ago, a facet of his game that cannot be relied upon. If Reavie continues to lose strokes in the ball striking categories, he could find himself in 70th place at the end of the week, in other words, DFL.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Hideki Matsuyama – $9,900
It’s now been two weeks in a row where Hideki has disappointed. Missing the cut at the Northern Trust and a ho-hum T23 at the Dell Tech have certainly shifted attention away from him. The motto I have lived by in the past, one that has been successful. Is there a cut? No. Is Hideki playing? Yes. Play Hideki. In his last five no cut events, Matsuyama has three wins and a runner up. Incredible. At $9,900 and four guaranteed rounds, Hideki is definitely worth going overweight on. His ball striking will eventually lift him to the top of the leaderboard.
Kevin Chappell – $8,400
Two weeks ago Kevin Chappell was everyone’s darling, racking up 37 tags on FanShareSports. His T35 at the Dell Tech has clearly left DFSers yearning for more as he only has four tags heading into the BMW Championship. Over his past 12 rounds, he still ranks inside the top 10 in SG:T2G at 15th in birdie percentage, which should translate real well at Conway Farms. Chappell falls in a dead range in the DraftKings pricing, which will help keep his ownership below 10% making him a perfect bounce back candidate.
Tony Finau – $7,800
For the last few events, Tony Finau has seemed like an obvious mispriced due to his recent form. In his past three events, he has finished T44, T54 and T65, three subpar results for a golfer who was garnering a ton of ownership. After a stretch of poor golf, DraftKings decides now is a great time to raise his price, which will further deter people from using him this week. He is not that far removed from a run of very consistent golf. If you have been standing by Finau for his past few events, don’t jump ship when now we have arrived at the best time to roster him in GPP formats.
Thanks for reading the BMW Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Aug 30, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Welcome to the second week of the FedEx Cup Playoffs! If the next three events come close to what the Northern Trust provided, we are in for a treat. The battle between DJ and Spieth is something golf fans have been dying for all season long.
The Dell Technologies Championship is the second leg of the playoffs and hosted at TPC Boston. This course has hosted this event for years, but was redesigned in 2007, limiting some of the course history we can draw from. A completely different contrast from last week at Glen Oaks where we had no course history at all. TPC Boston is a 7,300 yard Par 71, with three Par 5s, two of which should be reachable by most. This track is the easiest course in the playoff circuit, with the winning score typically eclipsing -15. The fairways at TPC Boston are wide, with some of the easiest to hit greens on tour. That does lend itself to a lot of long putts, making three putts a cause for concern. However, this week is all about ball striking, with the two stats I am looking at the heaviest being Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Strokes Gained Approach. Birdie or Better Percentage will also carry a lot of weight due to the scoring potential TPC Boston offers. Par 5 Scoring Average and Bogey Avoidance will also be factored into the stat model this week.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $12,000
What a performance. Not much else can be said about the way Dustin Johnson won the Northern Trust Open. His drive on first playoff hole spewed confidence and an attitude we saw with DJ right before Augusta. In his post round interview, DJ said he feels like he is finally back where he was in April – that is a scary thought for the rest of the field. His ownership will be high so you better shove all in if you want to jump aboard the second of back to back wins. This is DJ’s FedEx Cup to give away, and I think he has a little birdie in his ear that would really want $10 million dollars….
Jason Day – $9,500
If DJ doesn’t win this week or falls down another set of stairs, Jason Day has the next best shot. It’s been a long time since we saw back to back impressive results from Day. He has gained strokes in all categories over the past two events, something he hasn’t done since 2015. He has always had an incredible all around game and I think this is the spot where he is going to break through. His price on DraftKings is extremely affordable and will likely be one of the highest owned golfer’s this week.
Paul Casey – $8,900
Paul Casey is turning into a rich man’s Matt Kuchar. Except instead of top 20s, Casey gets you top 5s and is the same price. Casey has three top 5s in his past six events, and five straight top 15s. It’s like every event he flips on cruise control and always ends up on the final page of the leaderboard. Sure, he never wins any of these events but he continues to put himself in great positions to pay off his DraftKings price tag. Casey came second at this event last season, and I will not be shocked if he finds himself in that exact same position this year.
Adam Scott – $7,900
Adam Scott is back in action and DraftKings is pricing him as if he’s taken the last couple of years off. $7,900 is insane for one of the best cut makers, hell, golfers in the world. He took some time off after the PGA as his wife recently gave birth to the couple’s second child. Now, Scott returns with #NappyFactor fully engaged and ready play his way into the next couple of playoff events. Scott needs a good showing this week at the Dell to remain in the playoff picture. I think he easily gets it with a top 10 this week and moves on to Chicago.
Patrick Cantlay – $7,200
Ready to eat some $7K chalk? That’s exactly what Patrick Cantlay is this week and with good reason. He put on a tee to green clinic last week at the Northern Trust, gaining 10.8 shots. He did lose 2.9 on the green, keeping him outside of the top 5. Cantlay has had an interesting year after taking a lot of the season off to help mitigate a future back injury. With a good showing at the PGA and last week at the Northern Trust, his tee to green game will vault him back into the Sunday picture at TPC Boston.
Marc Leishman- $6,900
We struck out last week with Marc Leishman missing the cut on the number. It was a tough pill to swallow but DraftKings makes it easy to forgive when the decreased Leishman’s price by $1,500. That seems like a drastic over correction to one off week. Last week was Leishman’s third missed cut in the past 12 months. I feel very comfortable that he will find his putting stroke this week after losing 3.7 strokes on the green last week. He also gained 4.8 shots on approaches at the Northern Trust, which will carry over quite nicely to TPC Boston.
Dell Technologies Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jon Rahm – $10,600
How in the world does Jon Rahm only have three tags on FanShareSports? He finished third last week at the Northern Trust Open, jumped up to the 5th ranked golfer in the world and is only $10,600. All of the attention is going back to Spieth and DJ because of what they did last week. Rahm is flying under the radar in a week where the hype should be off the charts! He gained 6.1 strokes on approach shots last week while only gaining 1.8 off the tee. You’d expect that his off the tee game will bounce back this week and the wider fairways should help his cause. Rahm could be sub-15% owned this week which will be an easy situation to take advantage of in GPPs.
Brooks Koepka – $8,700
Another elite golfer with barely any tags on FanShareSports is Brooks Koepka. He has only been mentioned four times this week after his T49 last week at the Northern Trust Open. Koepka lost 4.8 shots around the green at Glen Oaks, a challenge that TPC Boston simply does not present. Koepka has been known to pop when least expected and this could be the week for that. He has a legitimate chance of winning the FedEx Cup if he can pull of a win within the next three events. His best chance might be here at the Dell Tech Championship, where is Par 5 scoring ability will become extremely important.
Gary Woodland – $8,000
Speaking of Par 5 scoring, Gary Woodland is another guy who could dominate these Par 5s when most golfers can’t. Woodland only has three tags on FanShareSports. He missed the cut last week and saw his price increase $1,000. Usually that is not a recipe for high ownership. Gary has finished T15 and T12 here the past two seasons, so TPC Boston is clearly a course that fits his eye. I do not expect his ownership to exceed 10%, especially with Justin Rose and Adam Scott priced right next to him.
Charl Schwartzel – $7,500
Charl Schwartzel had 17 mentions last week on FanShareSports, came T29, and now he has one. Were that many people pissed off of a top 30 from a golfer who was priced below $7K? Sure it’s not an amazing result, but it shouldn’t have killed the buzz as much as it has. Schwartzel is one of many golfers in the $7K range who will be overlooked as people build stars and scrubs lineups. If Charl can get his putter rolling just a bit and break his three event streak of losing strokes on the green, he has a chance to be in a late pairing on Sunday.
Brendan Steele – $6,900
Brendan Steele has had a season of two storylines. At the beginning of the year, he was a staple in a lot of cash lineups because he seemed to never miss a cut. Now, he has missed four of his last five cuts, but it has mainly been because of his putter. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approaches in his last three events. Steele has made fours straight cuts at this event – giving up that he can break this recent run of poor form. Steele has only one tag on FanShareSports and has the upside you are looking for in a low owned GPP punt.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Rory McIlroy – $9,800
It sucks that we have to fade Rory, but right now it’s the only play. Two weeks ago Rory stated that we might not see him until next season because of an injury. It was extremely odd that he played last week at the Northern Trust Open, and his T34 finish suggests something is still lingering in Rory’s back. He lost 3.8 strokes on approach shots, making that three straight events of lost strokes in that category. SG:APP is my heaviest weighted stat and Rory showing no signs of improving his approach game. Add on the injury scare/potential withdraw, and I will go elsewhere in the $9K range.
Sergio Garcia – $8,400
When you think of ball striking, there are very few names that will pop into your head before Sergio Garcia. His entire career has been based around his ball striking, Lately however, it has been his approach game that is off and led him to a missed cut at the PGA Championship. In his past 12 rounds, Garcia ranks 69th in SG:APP and 68th in SG:Par 5s, two stats that should impact a player’s finish. I don’t see this being the week Garcia finds his form and his price should inflate his ownership to warrant fading him.
Russell Henley – $7,600
Russell Henley may draw some attention this week, solely on the fact that he was the first round leader at the Northern Trust Open. However, his stats in his past 12 rounds have been less than impressive. He ranks 54th in SG:OTT and 72nd in SG:APP, both huge red flags. Even though he came T2 at TPC Boston in 2014, he has missed the cut his last two trips here. Considering only around 30 golfers get cut at this event, missing back to back cuts is not the course history I am looking for.
Phil Mickelson – $7,500
Time to pick on Lefty once again. If you’ve been paying attention to golf over the past couple of months, you’ll know Mickelson has lost his game. If for some reason you haven’t been keeping up and think Mickelson at $7,500 is a fantastic deal – stop. Phil sucks right now and can’t be used on DraftKings. I pointed this out on Twitter – Phil’s betting odds are 125/1 right now. I’m guessing the last time he was this big of a long shot was over 20 years ago. Stay away from Lefty.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Hideki Matsuyama – $10,100
Hideki’s finish last week was certainly not the result we were looking for out of the highest priced golfer. In hindsight, it was a serious let down spot for Matsuyama following two intense battles in his previous two events. Now after his rare MC and a price decrease, Hideki is poised to bounce back on a track that should fit his eye. He has improved his finish each of the past three years at TPC Boston, coming T15 last season. He only has 16 tags on FanShareSports, so going overweight on him shouldn’t be difficult.
Brian Harman – $7,400
At the Northern Trust Open, Brian Harman gained some attention and a reasonable 14 tags on FanShareSports. He then on went on to miss the cut and is now being ignored by the industry, having his tag count drop to five. Not much has changed from this point last week. Harman lost 2.6 strokes around the green at Glen Oaks, something he shouldn’t have to deal with at TPC Boston. He was in the green for both SG:OTT and SG:APP, will be much lower owned than last week and his priced just above Patrick Cantlay who should be extremely chalky this week.
Russell Knox – $7,100
Knox has been somewhat of a yo-yo lately, with two missed cuts in three weeks, but a 5th place finish at the WGC Bridgestone four events ago. Last week at Glen Oaks wasn’t pretty, as Knox lost 4.1 strokes on the greens as wasn’t much better tee to green. With that said, Knox is returning to a course he has found success at the past three seasons. He has three top 30 results and back to back top 15s. Knox won’t have any ownership on him this week (three tags on FanShareSports) even with his recent spurts of solid form. Knox will find his way into about 10% of my lineups this week which will be plenty to be overweight.
Francesco Molinari – $6,900
The Italian Stallion let a lot of people down last week with a terrible performance and a trunk slam on Friday. His putter let him down at the Northern Trust, which is what carried him to a T2 at the PGA Championship. I expect some positive regression from Molinari’s putter this week, which some combine well with his elite tee to green game as of late. Even though he doesn’t bomb it, Molinari ranks 10th in SG:OTT over the past 12 rounds. He should hit every fairway this week and find himself with tons of birdie opportunities.
Thanks for reading the Dell Technologies Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Aug 22, 2017 | Daily Preview, Data Center, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Did you jump on Stenson and Na last week?!…while ignorning my fade of Webb? It was an up and down week for sure – tough to be perfect, but it won’t deter me from trying. Also, thanks for sticking around for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, even with football season right around the corner. We still have plenty weeks of golf left with boatloads of cash to be won!
The first stop for the FedEx Cup Playoffs is the Northern Trust Open hosted by Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, New York. This course has never been visited by the PGA Tour, so course history is out the window. What I do know, from cruising through my Twitter feed and reading some course descriptions is that there are comparable courses available. First, Glen Oaks is a 7,300 yard Par 70, that utilizes Poa grass greens and can play extremely hard and fast. Off the tee is important, but being long and in the rough won’t kill you. The greens will be very difficult to hit if approaches are coming in from a long distance out of the rough. This is why I am putting an emphasis on hitting fairways. Due to the difficult to hit greens, around the green/scrambling will also come into play quite a bit. A couple of courses that have drawn comparisons to Glen Oaks are Riviera, Oakmont and Bethpage Black. It’s worth looking into recent events played at those courses, Genesis Open, 2016 U.S. Open and the 2012, 2016 Barclays.
For stats, keeping it pretty basic this week. Looking at recent form and course fit a little heavier than normal.
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Par 4 Scoring Average
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Putting – Poa
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $10,800
With some of the course comparisons Glen Oaks is drawing this week, Dustin Johnson seems like the perfect fit. Riviera and Oakmont are both courses DJ has won at in the past two years. His price tag is also extremely low, considering he is still the #1 ranked player in the world. Johnson showed some life at the PGA Championship with a T13, pointing his game in the right direction leading into the playoffs. His discounted price, course fit and trending form make him a lock for me across all formats.
Henrik Stenson – $9,800
Henrik Stenson showed up last week at the Wyndham and flat out beat the rest of the competition like he was suppose to do. Ollie made a nice run, but Stenson’s hot putter helped me hold off any threats. Rounding into his incredible recent form right before the FedEx Cup playoffs is huge for Stenson, someone who has won the 10 million dollar price before. He now has three straight top 17 finishes and has always been known as one of the streakiest golfers in the world. All facets of his game are on right now and I won’t be shocked to see Stenson take down one of these playoff events. Why not make it back to back?
Paul Casey – $9,000
Even though he doesn’t win, Paul Casey loves to get out of the gates hot and wind up inside the top 15 in some way. It sucks to see him get so close so many times, and you have to think is time is coming soon, but if he continues to churn out top fives regularly, that will do just fine for DK purposes. Over his past 24 events, Casey ranks first in SG:APP, SG: Par 4s, and 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. At $9,000 he is an extremely safe and reliable cash game cornerstone to build your lineup around.
Charley Hoffman – $7,900
Charley Hoffman has lingered around the top of leaderboards all season long and you have to think his time to break through is coming. The FedEx Cup has seen some unlikley winners in the past, and Hoffman seems to fit that mold of golfer who can string four great tournaments together and win the FedEx Cup. Over his last 24 rounds, Hoffman ranks 5th in SG: Par 4s and 13 in SG:OTT. If he can hit these greens and avoid tricky up and downs this week, Hoffman will be in contention once again.
Tony Finau – $7,300
DraftKings hates Tony Finau, as this is not the first time his price tag has been well below what it should be. There isn’t even a need to rhyme off all of Finau’s recent results (they are really good) to help prove he is a great play this week, his price does all the talking. His betting odds suggest he should be priced in the high $7K or low $8K range, not priced down beside scrubs like Scott Stallings and Camilo Villegas. Ownership on Finau could eclipse 30%, and I am willing to double that.
Chez Reavie – $6,700
If you need a punt play below the $7K range to fill out a cash game lineup, look no further than Chez Reavie. He has made eight straight cuts and in doing so, has put himself near the top of a lot of stat categories. In his last 24 rounds, Reavie is inside the top 17 in SG:APP, SG: Par 4s, Fairways Gained and bogey avoidance. His accuracy off the tee will be huge because he isn’t the longest hitter. He should have more control approach these greens than guys fighting it out of the rough all week. He is a safe bet for a made cut, and at $6,700, what more can you really ask for.
Northern Trust Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Rickie Fowler – $11,300
For some odd reason, Rickie Fowler only has 15 tags on FanShareSports, the second fewest out of anyone priced above $9K. This might not be a direct relation to what his ownership will be come Thursday, but it does make you raise an eyebrow. This is the highest we have seen Fowler priced, from what I can remember, in a field that contained all of the world’s top players. Maybe that is keep his mentions down. Whatever it may be, it seems silly that Fowler could get overlooked this week even though he is putting together an extremely consistent season. I wouldn’t be shocked if he makes a run at winning the FedEx Cup, with it all starting this week.
Marc Leishman – $8,500
In a crowded $8K range with players popular plays at the top including Rahm, Kuchar and Reed, Marc Leishman is getting very attention this week despite setting up well for this course. His six tags on FanShareSports makes the fact that he ranks 8th in my weighted model even more intriguing. He enters the Northern Trust with three top 15s in his last four events, two of those coming in majors. He scores well on Par 3s and 4s and is excellent around the green. Don’t go to sleep on the Aussie this week.
Kevin Kisner – $8,000
Kevin Kisner has one tag on FanShareSports. ONE! To think he was in the final pairing of a major just two weeks ago and has completely fallen off the radar is mind boggling. Last week at the Wyndham he was $11,300, was heavily owned and finished T42 in an obvious let down spot. Perhaps people think he is exhausted from having played three weeks straight? I’ll give them than, but from what I can tell, Kisner is a grinder and wants to win each and every week. At $8,000 and likely to see next to no ownership, what a buying opportunity we have.
Jamie Lovemark – $7,400
Since Tony Finau will be chalk, looking elsewhere for GPPs in the mid $7K range is definitely an option. Jamie Lovemark has been playing some very consistent golf recently, with three straight top 35s, including a 3rd at the Greenbrier. He has the 8th best off the tee game over his past 12 rounds in the field, combined with the 8th best around the green game. Being from the west coast, he is familiar with Poa greens and could play to his advantage.
Branden Grace – $6,900
Alright, isn’t Branden Grace someone that always gets talked about in these strong fields because he has the ability to grind with the best of them? He frequently contends in big time events, and we all are tempted to roster him when he is priced in the mid $8K range. Now at $6,900 (that price is absurd) he only has three tags on FanShareSports. He sits 90th in FedEx Cup points, so he needs a strong showing this week to make it to next week. He is three events removed from a T6 at the Open and is one of the best scramblers in the field. It makes no sense to see a golfer of Grace’s caliber drop $1,300 and get zero buzz.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Justin Thomas – $9,400
Is there a more inconsistent elite golfer in the world than Justin Thomas? Nope. That’s exactly why I find it tough to roster him in a spot where his price tag is up and his ownership will be inflated because of his recent win at the PGA. After a couple of good starts around the U.S. Open, he rattled off three straight missed cuts. He has as many missed cuts this season as he does top 10s. Boom or bust is his game and with a higher than normal ownership, rolling the dice is not worth it.
Phil Mickelson – $7,900
Lefty, what’s happening man?! After not missing a cut all season, he has now missed two of his last three cuts, and came T39 in a no cut event. Seems like a direct correlation with his old caddie Bones leaving the bag. Until Phil shows that he can find some form with his brother telling him the yardages, there is no way that he should be making your his way onto any of your rosters.
Robert Garrigus – $7,600
I’ve been backing Robert Garrigus for a the last month or so – he’s been dialled in and finding his way to the top of leaderboards. But for $7,600 in a field loaded from top to bottom, Garrigus just does not have the game to get it done. He is one of the worst putters in this field in general, but he ranks 108th in the field in SGP on Poa. Don’t put your faith in Garrigus and his two foot tall putter.
Adam Hadwin – $7,300
This one is painful – but fellow Canadian Adam Hadwin has lost the form he once showed at the beginning of the season. Hadwin has one top 50 in his last nine events. That top 50 was a T5 at the WGC Bridgestone, but clearly it was a flash in the pan that may have been driven by Hadwin having no fear of a cut. I feel a little less patriotic writing this, but just trying to steer the people clear of a potential disaster.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Jon Rahm – $8,900
Jon Rahm has strung together a few disappointing results in a row after his win at the Irish Open. His T58 two weeks ago at Quail Hollow is fresh in people’s minds, as he only has 13 tags on FanShareSports despite his extremely low price tag. We are all well aware of the talent Rahm possesses. His elite off the tee game should give him plenty of short irons into these tough greens and he is one of the best Par 4 scorers in the field
Daniel Berger – $8,500
Hear that noise? Yeah, that noise is the chaos you hear as people try to abandon ship on Daniel Berger. At the PGA, Berger had 64 mentions on FanShareSports and was one of the highest owned golfers in the field. His missed cut ruined a ton of lineups and now with only eight tags on FanShare, the time to buy back in on Berger is now. He has gained the second most strokes on approach shots over his past 12 rounds in this field, despite his recent MC. His price tag will also keep his ownership down – the $8K range will be glossed over in a typical lineup construction this week.
Kyle Stanley – $7,500
Get Kyle Stanley off Bermuda greens right now. Wow, that was bad. Even though Stanley gained over nine strokes in his past two events tee to green, he missed both cuts because he lost 13.5 strokes putting. That is terrible and a change of scenery for Stanley is definitely in order. Even though Poa is still tricky to putt on, anything is better than Bermuda for Stanley at the moment. I trust that Stanley will bounce back this week and let his elite tee to green game shine. Don’t be worried about his recent results like the rest of the DFS golf community is – he has one tag on FanShareSports.
Xander Schauffele – $7,000
Like Berger, Xander Schauffele was heavily owned at the PGA Championship and disappointed big time with his missed cut. Even still, Xander enters his first FedEx Cup playoffs with plenty of solid recent form to keep his momentum going. He followed up his win at the Greenbrier with two respectable showings at the Open and WGC Bridgestone. He has the 16th best T2G game in the field over his past 12 rounds, and is one of the best putters period, in this field. The $7K range usually see spread out ownership, but Xander is someone I am willing to load up on.
Thanks for reading the Northern Trust Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Aug 16, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed the PGA Championship, built some solid lineups and had a profitable week. Unfortunately, the major season has come and gone…sad, sad times. We are now gifted with the Wyndham Championship, whose field will make you want to take the week off. But don’t! If you have been grinding all season long, these are the fields that can really be taken advantage off. If you were someone betting on the Barracuda or Barbasol, building lineups for the Puerto Rico Open, this is a field for you.
The Wyndham Championship will be held at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro North Carolina. Sedgefield is a 7,100 yard Par 70, and will typically yield a lot of birdies even though it only has two Par 5s. Sedgefield has played host to this event since 2008, but they changed the greens to Champion Bermuda, same turf as last week’s Quail Hollow, prior to the 2012 event, limiting course history slightly. Due to it’s lack of length, Sedgefield will play as a second shot course. Bombers will have driver taken out of their hands on some holes, bringing the to a more level playing field.
Since second shots will be extremely important this week, SG:Approach is my heaviest weighted stat, followed closely by Birdie or Better %. Winning scores usually end up in the high teen range, so golfers who can stuff the cup with birds will be targets. The bermuda rough can also be very penal, so I will be looking at SG:Off the tee combined with Driving Accuracy, in the hopes guys are staying out of the long stuff giving them more opportunities to attack pins. I will also be looking at Par 4 Scoring Average, Scrambling and SG:Putting on bermuda specifically.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Henrik Stenson – $11,500
In a field of this strength, Henrik Stenson should be at least $12,000. We are getting a discount on a golfer that is head and shoulders better than every other golfer in this field, and people are still avoiding him. The narrative that Stenson is just showing up to this event to maintain his tour status is fair, but how about it’s also because he wants to continue the mini heater is his on. Stenson has three straight top 17, all in world class fields. He ranks first in my weighted stats model, crushing Par 4s and approach shots over his past 12 rounds. I am getting the sense his ownership will be around 15%, maybe lower, which is absurd for a golfer who could lap this field if he’s on.
Bud Cauley – $9,200
I cannot, and will not quit Bud Cauley. “Justin Thomas’s” buddy has been playing very well as of late, and popped up on the leaderboard at the PGA early last week. In the field, Cauley ranks 2nd in SG:App and 14th in Par 4 scoring average, which should set him up perfectly for Sedgefield, a course he has had success at in the past. Cauley has a T10 and a 3rd place finish at the Wyndham in the past five years, to go along with two missed cuts. However, this season on corollary courses, he finished 12th (John Deere Classic) and 3rd (RBC Heritage) – another top 15 finish and hopefully higher, is well within the cards.
Chez Reavie – $8,100
Chez Reavie is becoming a cut making machine. Chez has made nine of his last ten cuts, which include a T4 at the St. Jude and impressive T22 last week at a tough Quail Hollow that didn’t seem to fit his game. In his last 12 rounds, Chez ranks 9th in SG:App, 21st in Birdies and 3rd in Fairways gained. His accuracy off the tee and recent approach stats will give him plenty of birdie looks this week. He needs to figure out these bermuda greens if he wants to have a chance, but his tee to green game will make him a solid cash option, someone who will definitely be playing four rounds.
Kevin Na – $7,500
Simply put, Kevin Na is too cheap this week and his value has to be taken advantage of. In his past 12 rounds, Na ranks 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 6th in SG:App and 6th in Birdies gained. That includes his missed cut at the PGA last week. Sedgefield will take the driver out of Na’s hands this week, so his wildness off the tee will be minimized. He came 10th at this event last season, and could really use some FedEx Cup points as the playoffs linger right around the corner. I think this is a great “get right” week for Na at a course that seems to suit his eye.
Luke Donald – $7,000
Very rarely will you see Luke Donald’s name get mentioned in the Staples section, but this week is a fitting week to include him. Accuracy and no distance is what Luke Donald brings to the table, a perfect fit for Sedgefield. Donald hasn’t been lighting the world on fire lately with six straight missed cuts, but he is turning into (probably already is) a golfer that plays well on courses that he likes or that fit his game. Harbour Town is one of those courses, where he’s come second in back-to-back years. He came runner up at the Wyndham last season, so Sedgefield could be one of those tracks where Donald takes his top 5 money and says “see ya next year.”
Wyndham Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jason Dufner – $10,400
In a field of this strength, I find it very beneficial to make plenty of logical pivots because no one really knows how any of the golfers are going to perform. They are in this field because of their inconsistencies, and pivoting to lower owned golfers can be profitable. This week, Jason Dufner is the lowest tagged golfer on FanShareSports in the $10K+ range. There is no reason for Dufner not to be getting love this week. He is accurate of the tee and deadly with his irons, ranking 1st in SG:APP over his last 12 rounds. He has a top 10 at this event within his last three trips here, won a few weeks ago at Muirfield (another shorter course) and came T11 at RBC Heritage, a corollary course. Dufman is my favorite tournament play of the week.
Keegan Bradley – $9,500
In a week that seems like it should be a Keegan Bradley week, no one is really getting behind him. He only has 15 tags on FanShareSports, despite a bunch of stats that say he should have way more. Keegan has been driving the ball incredibly all season, ranking first in total driving in this field. Even though distance won’t matter as much, he is very accurate off the tee, so clubbing down will likely yield the same result. Keegan ranks 3rd in the field in ball striking, and 3rd in Par 4 scoring average. Obviously, putting is his kryptonite – if his putter shows up this week, Keegan will have a late tee time on Sunday.
Scott Brown – $8,200
Scott Brown turned in an improbably T13 last week at Quail Hollow, backed by an impressive putting performance. Brown gained 5.3 strokes on the green, but also 3.3 in his approach shots. He now has two top 25s in his last three events and has seen his price jump way up to $8,200. He only has 11 tags on FanShareSports, compared to Reavie who has 21, priced right below him. Brown may be drawing some inspiration from good buddy Kevin Kisner – maybe they can both crack the top 15 again this week.
Emiliano Grillo – $7,500
What a fall from grace it has been for Emiliano Grillo. He is on a terrible run lately, missing three of his last five cuts. Those missed cuts were all majors, and the Wyndham Championship, isn’t one. Grillo is one of the best talents in this field and at an accuracy style course, can surely bounce back and make a run. He only has two tags on FanShareSports, so he will likely be under 5% owned. If Hagy or Ollie are not your cup of tea, Grillo is a great pivot option.
Ryan Blaum – $6,900
There aren’t a lot of names below the $6K range that I like, or can even stomach rostering this week, but Ryan Blaum would be the first guy I go to if I need some salary relief. Blaum has made five straight cuts including two top 10s, getting back to the form we got use to seeing at the beginning of the season. He ranks 10th in my weighted stats model, due to his Par 4 scoring and BoB% over his past 12 rounds, ranking 2nd and 3rd in those stats respectively. Pivot off of the bomber Trey Mullinax, who doesn’t suit this course at all.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Webb Simpson – $10,000
Webb Simpson is trending towards being the highest owned golfer on the slate – I cannot get behind that. He has been playing much better lately, that is certain, but at $10K, I need to be very confident he is going to finish inside the top 10 in order to return value. Even with his great course history, he showed last year with his T72 finish at the Wyndham he is capable of struggling at this course. With the weak field and volatility of all of these golfers, I’d rather pivot to the lower owned, equal upside of Jason Dufner.
Grayson Murray – $9,100
Alright Grayson, that was a fun run but the road ends here. Murray has been on a heater lately with a win at the Barbasol and a solid run at Quail Hollow. Sedgefield does not set up for Murray, who ranks 108th in the field in driving accuracy and 124th in scrambling. Take the biggest weapon, his distance, out of his bag and we should see Murray struggle, especially after grinding out four rounds last week.
Brandon Hagy – $7,400
Brandon Hagy is a similar story to Grayson Murray, where their biggest weapon won’t be a factor this week. Hagy is a masher and leads the field in driving distance, and even if he clubs down to hit fairways, his approach game will not save him. Hagy is 123rd in SG:App in the field, and does the majority of his damage on Par 5s. Sedgefield has never been a course where bombers eat it up. Toss in Hagy’s projected higher ownership, sits 17th most tags on FanShareSports, and fading Hagy seems like the logical play.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Kyle Stanley – $9,300
Considering the lack of talent in this field, there aren’t many golfers who roasted your lineups within the last few weeks to highlight. There is however, Kyle Stanley. Stanley seemed like a safe, cheap option last week at the PGA, but let everyone down with a terrible display of putting. Stanley lost the most strokes putting last week in the entire field. What is scary is that the Sedgefield greens are the same grass type as Quail Hollow’s, so let’s hope Stanley spent his off days figuring out how to roll them on bermuda grass. He only has nine tags on FanShareSports, the fewest of any golfer priced above $9K.
Thanks for reading the Wyndham Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Aug 8, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Let’s hope you pivoted to Hideki Matsuyama last week and built up the bankroll for this year’s last major!
The PGA Championship has arrived – glory’s last shot. It’s also your last shot to win a million bucks on DraftKings until football season rolls around. The 99th PGA Championship will be held at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina. It is a 7,400 yard Par 71 course that will test all aspects of a golfer’s game. Being long and accurate off the tee will be important to attack Quail Hollow’s long Par 4s. Reports are circulating that the rough could be as long as five inches in some areas- hitting fairways will be crucial. A solid approach game is always a must, specifically from 175 yards and out, where over 50% of shots will be hit from. Since the approaches will be coming from distance, not every shot is going to find the putting surface – scrambling will be very important as well. This will be the first time Quail Hollow will be played on their new Champion dwarf bermudagrass greens. Typically, new greens play firm and fast, so golfers who have had success on faster, tougher greens in the past may have a slight advantage.
With that quick breakdown of the course, the key stats I am looking at are;
25% – Strokes Gained Approach
20% – Strokes Gained Off the Tee
15% – Birdie or Better %
10% – Scrambling
10% – Par 4 Scoring Avg
10% – Proximity 175+
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Rory McIlroy – $11,800
It’s time to eat allll the chalk in the world. Boring yes, but if you go 60% Rory this week, you will still be overweight on the field and can differentiate elsewhere. This is Rory’s week to lose. All signs are pointing in his direction – the dominate course history, PGA Championship history and recent results. He has back-to-back top five finishes in world class fields. Rory gained 8.1 strokes on the field last week, while LOSING 1.5 strokes on approach shots. No one has ever worried about Rory’s approach game, so when that turns around this week at Quail Hollow, we could see another runaway victory.
Hideki Matsuyama – $10,500
The reason why targeting elite ball strikers who excel tee to green rather than putters, is Hideki Matsuyama. He is known to be one of the worst putters on tour, yet when his elite approach game is on, his putter just has to be average for him to win. I do not see a reason why his form from last week won’t continue into this week. Hideki gained 6.4 shots approaching the green and 5.8 shots around the green last week, both will translate well to Quail Hollow. We have seen Hideki win back-to-back events as early as this past December, so winning hangovers are not a thing for him. A Hideki – Fowler start to cash games will be super popular this week, with good reason.
Adam Scott – $8,600
The price tag on Adam Scott is getting to a point where you have to jam him in. He is priced below Matt Kuchar? Come on. In any scenario heads up, everyone would take Scott over Kuchar, yet ownership this week will likely tell a different story. Scott has been showing consistent form lately, missing one cut since Augusta and his last three results are trending towards a top ten finish. He has always been one of the best ball strikers from 200+, something that should separate him from the field this week. Scott would bring elite upside to a balanced lineup construction.
Daniel Berger – $7,700
Continuing the trend of eating chalk this week for my staples, Daniel Berger is another “jam him in” play. Berger’s price tag makes him super attractive, one of the reasons why he sits 3rd in tags on FanShareSports this week. He has three top fives in his last six events, including a win at the St. Jude and a runner up to Jordan Spieth’s hole out at the Travelers. Berger’s betting odds have plummeted from over 100:1 a few weeks ago to 50:1 heading into Thursday. There is a buzz around the industry that this will be Berger’s week, and I don’t want to miss out if it is.
Tony Finau – $7,000
This price on Tony Finau is an absolute steal. There are few golfers in the game right now that are playing better than Finau. He has five straight top 30s including a T5 in Canada and T7 at the Greenbrier. He has slowly became one of the most consistent golfers on tour, he just hasn’t had a lot of chances to showcase it on the big stage. His off the tee game is unfair, ranking third in SG:OTT in his last 12 rounds. Add that to his birdie making and bogey avoidance abilities, he has a great make up for Quail Hollow. He also has two top 30 finishes at Quail Hollow in his only trips to this course. Finau will be super popular this week, but even high ownership won’t scare me off of him. I can see a top 10 finish coming from Tony.
Xander Schauffele – $7,000
Xander Schauffele is making a strong run at rookie of the year. Since his win at the Greenbrier, Schauffele has finished T20 at The Open and T13 at the Bridgestone. He can hang with the big boys on tour and he will have another week to prove that at Quail Hollow. He is long off the tee, which will leave him with manageable distances into these greens. Xander has solid proximity stats from 175+, but his main weapon is his putter. He is one of the best putters in the field as of late, and if these greens are rolling firm and fast, his prowess on the greens should give him a slight advantage. With all of the popular options at $7,000, I think Xander will go slightly underowned than projections suggest. The general public still does not know who X-Man is, and this weekend will be flooded with non-golf fans playing DraftKings PGA.
PGA Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jordan Spieth – $12,000
The most expensive golfer on the board, a pivot? It seems that way. With only 19 mentions on FanShareSports, Spieth is being blindly ignored because Rory is sitting right below him. Spieth is one week removed from back-to-back wins, not that people need reminding he won The Open. Spieth always finds a way to put his name in the mix during major weeks, and this week will not be any different. He ranks 1st in my weighted stats ranking this week furthering the point that Spieth cannot be ignored this week simply because of Rory. If Spieth is below 20% owned this week, a ton of people have made a huge mistake.
Jason Day – $10,400
Every week, Jason Day seems to find his way into the perfect pivot position. His game has not been where we expect from Day, but he did flash some form last week at Firestone. He won’t see any ownership in the Milly Maker, when people are loading up on Fowler and Matsuyama. I won’t be shocked to see Day’s ownership be 10%, which for a golfer above $10K, is unheard of. He has an incredible PGA Championship record and the last time he played at Quail Hollow, he finished T9. If you want to bring on the riski with Day and take a few stabs at a million bucks, he would be a solid low owned option to go to.
Sergio Garcia – $9,400
Sergio was still battling the post wedding hangover last week at the Bridgestone Invitational, which led him to an average T39 finish. Garcia only has 15 tags on FanShareSports, compared to Koepka’s 30 who sits $200 cheaper. Garcia has the all around game that will work well at Quail Hollow. Long, accurate and good around the greens, if Garcia is on, he could find his way into a late tee time on Sunday.
Alexander Noren – $7,900
The first couple of times Alex Noren made the trip across the pond, he was extremely popular because of his high world ranking and the fact that DFSers like shiny new toys. Now after multiple starts in the U.S., the love for Noren has disappeared after not turning in top finishes. He only has nine tags on FanShareSports, despite his solid last two events. Noren’s price tag will likely keep his ownership down, as most lineups constructed this week will be stars and scrubs. This seems like a perfect stage for Noren to finally make a splash on North American soil.
Hudson Swafford – $7,000
With only five tags on FanShareSports, Hudson Swafford’s ownership is going to be tiny. At the $7,000 range only, you have Poulter, Chappell, Finau and Xander, all popular players on FanShareSports. Swafford over his past 12 rounds, ranks 15th in SG:APP and 33rd in SG:OTT, both very solid for someone priced this low. He is also trending in the right direction, with T58, T32 and T10 in his last three starts. Swafford is the play if you don’t want to eat $7,000 chalk.
Francesco Molinari – $6,800
Francesco Molinari ranked so highly in my weight stats model over the past 12 rounds, I had to jam him in somewhere in this article. Noticing how loaded the $7,000 range is and how Zach Johnson will likely be a chalky pick, Molinari became a great low owned target for me. He only has 10 tags on FanShareSports, and likely off people’s radar because he is a short hitter. He is however, deadly accurate and is the best player in this field from 200+ yards over the last 12 rounds. Unlike ZJ, who I will be fading because of his projected higher ownership, I like Molinari to bunt his way around Quail Hollow and make up for it in long approaches.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Henrik Stenson – $9,800
Out of the top guys in this field, Stenson has by far the worst course history. He has a T58 and three missed cuts in his last four appearances at Quail Hollow. His recent stats aren’t the best either. He ranks 68th in SG:OTT and 46th in SG:APP in this field over his last 12 rounds. Combined that with his terrible course history, and he becomes an easy fade priced as the eighth most expensive in this field.
Matt Kuchar – $8,800
The weekly fade Matt Kuchar play is back. He came up short in returning value the last two events since The Open, coming T32 in Canada and T17 last week in a 76 man field. $8,800 isn’t an unfair price for Kuchar, but it’s still too much for me to pony up for. This will be his fifth event in a row, with some grueling travel in between. His lack of distance is also a concern here. Too many question marks for me to take the plunge on Kuch.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – $7,400
Something is wrong with Matthew Fitzpatrick’s game and I am not willing to burn $7,400 to see if this is the week he turns it around. Fitz’s best finish since early June is a T35 at the U.S. Open, has missed two out of six cuts. In his last 12 rounds, Fitzpatrick ranks 130th in SG:OTT and 121 SG:APP in this field. His betting odds suggest he should be priced about $500 cheaper.
Padraig Harrington – $7,000
This is a free square under the fades section. There is no way Harrington should be priced $7,000 next to guys like Finau, Chappell and Kisner. Paddy and Quail don’t get along either – his last four appearances here have resulted in an average finish of 132nd.
Zach Johnson – $6,800
This is my ownership fade of the week. Zach Johnson has been playing much better lately and it is being recognized across the DFS community. He currently leads all golfers in tags below the $7K mark with 23, suggesting he will be the chalk of the value plays. The length of Quail Hollow might be too much for ZJ to overcome, who is struggling off the tee and with long approaches. In his last 12 rounds, he sits 64th in SG:OTT and 51st in Proximity from 200+. Jump off now before ZJ comes crashing back down to earth.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Dustin Johnson – $11,400
Dustin Johnson only has 21 tags on FanShareSports. That is incredible for a golfer, who on paper, could easily tear Quail Hollow apart. He has the length, approaches, short game and putting that when clicking leads to domination we saw earlier in the season. But after multiple average finishes in a row leading up to the PGA, people seem to be abandoning DJ in favour of Rory and Rickie. The world #1 might see ownership levels below 15%, and if that is the case, his GPP playability is through the roof.
Justin Rose – $9,000
This might finally be the week where Justin Rose returns to the ownership levels we got use to last season. His stock “rose” this season after his Masters performance, and he began to see an inflated price and higher ownership. Now at $9,000, Rose is returning to a course where he has had plenty of success. In his last two trips to Quail Hollow (for the Wells Fargo) he has a 3rd and 5th place finish. With only 15 tags on FanShareSports, Rose’s upside and low ownership will make him a great tournament option.
J.B. Holmes – $7,400
The former winner at Quail Hollow is off people’s radars this week with only 13 tags on FanShareSports. J.B. Holmes showed form at the RBC Canadian Open but crushed a lot of lineups last week with his T60 finish at Firestone. His driver, which let him down earlier in the season, is back as he ranks 16th in SG:OTT in this field over his past 12 rounds. If he can continue to drive the ball as well as he has been, J.B. will have a huge advantage if the course sees some rain this week and is playing soft. At $7,400, he will not see a lot of ownership as he falls in a dead range in the DK pricing.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $7,100
Heading into last week’s Bridgestone Invitational, Cabrera-Bello had a win at the Scottish Open and and a T4 at the Open Championship under his belt. He was $7,900 last week and had 18 tags on FanShareSports. RCB rewarded those who rostered him with a near dead last finish and now, RCB is going unnoticed. He only has three mentions on FanShareSports and finds himself in a crowded price range on DraftKings. He is in a prime bounce back situation at an ownership that could fall under 5%.
Thanks for reading the PGA Championship preview article! I hope you enjoy the final major of the season! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
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