by KendoVT | Jan 25, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Farmers Insurance Open
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history. We are a bit light on tournament history this week since two of the three courses in the rotation are brand new. However, we can use past tournament performance to find players who can manage different courses over the same tournament.
Course Description
The PGA Tour is in sunny La Jolla, California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. The Farmers will be played on the North AND South courses at Torrey Pines. Golfers will play both courses on Thursday and Friday and if they make the cut, they will finish with two rounds on the South Course. The North course is by far the easier of the two. It’s under 7,000 yards long with four par 3s and four par 5s. All the par 5s at the North course are reachable in two by the majority of the golfers. The fairways are tight and the rough is on the thick side but the greens are large. The North course usually plays almost 4 strokes easier per round than the South course. Golfers will need to take advantage of their one round here because the South course is a monster. The South course is a 7,700 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. It’s the longest course on Tour and one of the most difficult as well. The fairways are very tight and surrounded by many bunkers. The greens on the South course are small and there are many bunkers surrounding the greens as well. Both courses use bumpy poa annua grass for their greens (though the North course is a blend of poa annua and bent grass) making putting much more difficult than last week’s pristine greens at the CareerBuilder Challenge. Both courses are situated on cliffs right next to the Pacific Ocean making wind a factor. The weather as of now is supposed to be good with light winds Thursday thru Saturday but Sunday could be trouble. Rain and 30 mph winds are forecasted for Sunday which could make for an interesting final round.
Looking at the course description above, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week. I will be putting a little more emphasis than usual on course history because 11 of the past 12 winners have finished inside the Top 20 in one of their two previous appearances at Torrey Pines before the win.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which are key stats every week.
Driving Distance (DD):
The South Course is LONG. Good DD is going to help golfers a lot. The fairways are tough to hit, even for accurate drivers. In my opinion a wedge from the rough is an easier play than a 175-200 yard shot from the fairway at the South course. DD will also help on the North course because it is a shorter track. In the last five years 75% of the golfers that finished in the Top 3 were inside the Top 50 in DD for the specific year they finished in the Top 3.
Par 5 scoring (P5):
All four par 5s on the North course are reachable in two. Golfers will need to take advantage of their one round on the North course and the easiest way to do it is on the par 5s. There are usually more eagles made by golfers in one round at the North course than there are in all three rounds at the South course combined. 70% of golfers that finished in the Top 3 the last five years have been inside the Top 70 in P5 for that specific year.
Proximity from 200+ yards (Prox200+):
There will be a lot of 200+ yard shots this week whether it’s from the tee on long par 3s, approach shots on long par 4s, or guys going for it in two on par 5s. 65% of the golfers that finished in the Top 3 the last 5 years have finished inside the Top 80 in this stat for that specific year.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
Golfers will need as many birdies as possible on the North course to make the cut. Birdies will also be a necessity on the South course because there will be bogeys. 80% of the golfers that finished in the Top 3 the last five years have been inside the Top 74 in this stat for that specific year.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from last season but I will take a peak at this year’s stats where applicable.
Jason Day ($12,000):
Day is playing his second tournament of the year this week. He looked rusty early on at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions but came on during the weekend. He is one of the best golfers in the world and he is the betting favorite this week. Of course his stats are going to be great and the $12,000 price tag is not that high considering last year at this very same tournament Jordan Spieth was $15,500. Lots of solid players in the $7,000-$8,000 range so using him in lineups this week won’t be too difficult. I probably still won’t use him in cash games because of his lack of time on the course lately but he will be in a few GPPs of mine. (GPP only)
Rickie Fowler ($11,600):
Fowler won last week at Abu Dhabi against an elite field. He is slowly trying to get in the same league as Spieth, Rory, and Day and will do so once he wins a Major, which I think will happen this year. His stats are solid and he is my #2 ranked golfer in the field this week. I’m a little worried about the drastic time change he has to go through but I will still be using him in GPPs. (GPP only)
Dustin Johnson ($11,100):
DJ’s stats line up really well with the course this week. He’s 9th in SG:T2G, 5th in BoB%, 3rd in P5, 1st in DD, and 13th in Prox200+. There is a little risk in using him in cash lineups this week because he hasn’t played the best at Torrey Pines in the past but he has finished as high as 3rd here before. He is actually my #1 ranked golfer this week.(GPP only)
Brandt Snedeker ($10,700):
Sneds plays really well at Torrey Pines. In his 10 starts here he only has two missed cuts with seven Top 20s, six Top 10s, four Top 3s, and a victory in 2012. His current form is solid as well. He is coming off a playoff loss at the Sony Open and his game is beginning to come around after a poor year by his standards in 2015. A victory is coming for him soon. I love his price and he will be a staple in my cash game lineups. He is my pick to win this week. (GPP and Cash)
Phil Mickleson ($10,500):
Lefty makes my pick list for the first time in awhile. His price is high and there is a possibility he blows up but he looked really strong last week at the CareerBuilder Challenge. His masterful short game should be a big plus this week with the smallish greens and trouble surrounding them. The worry I have with him is that he has been spraying his tee shots all over the place the last few years and he always goes for crazy miracle shots. Instead of playing the smart shot, he always goes for the gusto. This is one of the main reasons he is such a fan favorite but he can definitely bite you in the ass sometimes when it comes to DFS. He is my #3 ranked golfer this week. (GPP only)
Paul Casey ($9,600):
Casey played some of his best golf of his career last year and I think it should carry over into the 2016 season. His stats for the course are solid. He’s 10th in SG:T2G, 31st in BoB%, 13th in P5, 35th in DD, and 10th in Prox200+. He missed the cut in his only other appearance here last year but he was not playing anywhere close to the level he is now. (GPP and Cash)
Charles Howell III ($9,400):
CH3 has been playing some real consistent golf lately. He made all 7 cuts so far in the 2015-2016 season with SIX Top 17s. His course history at Torrey Pines is spectacular as well. He has made his last eleven cuts here with seven Top 15s, five Top 10s, and three Top 5s. He hits the ball long off the tee, plays par 5s well, and his tee to green game is solid. I like him a lot this week. (GPP and Cash)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Jan 19, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
CareerBuilder Challenge
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history. We are a bit light on tournament history this week since two of the three courses in the rotation are brand new. However, we can use past tournament performance to find players who can manage different courses over the same tournament.
Full Chart Below!
Course Description
The PGA Tour moves to California this week for the old Bob Hope Classic. It is now called the CareerBuilder Challenge and will be played on three different courses: The Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (1 round), La Quinta Country Club (1 round), and The Stadium Course at PGA West (2 rounds if golfers make the cut). This tournament is a bit unconventional because ALL golfers will play each course once the first three days, then there will be a cut on SATURDAY. The remaining golfers will battle it out Sunday at The Stadium Course to find a victor. Because of this, golfers in your lineups that miss the cut will have less total effect on your DraftKings score. Having as many golfers as possible make the cut is still important, but you can get away with more missed cuts meaning you can be a bit more aggressive in picking golfers with upside, especially for your cash lineups (Double Ups, H2Hs, and 50/50s). This event is also a pro-am so the courses won’t be set up too difficult, except on Sunday at The Stadium Course. The pro-am event ends on Saturday so they will probably move tee boxes back and make the pin locations a bit more challenging for the pros on Sunday.
The Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West is a 7,200 yard, par 72 course with four par 3s, four par 5s, and 10 par 4s. The course has hosted PGA Tour Qualifying Tournaments and a 59 has been shot here in tournament play in the past. This course at first look does not seem too difficult. The fairways will be average to large in width with many bunkers and water in play off the tee on many holes. I don’t think the rough will be too thick because of the fact that it’s a pro-am. My guess is Tour officials will try to set up the course a little easier than usual because they will be trying to avoid 6 hour rounds with the amateurs playing along side the pros. The greens will be undulating, multi tiered, and on the large side with bunkers and water surrounding most greens. Like the other two courses, the greens will be bermudagrass.
La Quinta Country Club is a 7,000 yard par 72 with four par 3s, four par 5s, and 10 par 4s. It has been on the regular rotation at this tournament for years and was actually the 5th easiest course last year on Tour. The fairways are tree lined and average at best in width. Bunkers, water, and local vegetation are in play for wayward drives off the tee. The greens are average in size with trouble surrounding them.
The Stadium Course at PGA West is a totally different animal compared to the other two courses. It is the definition of target golf. It hosted the Bob Hope Classic in 1987 and the golfers back then complained so much about how difficult the course was, that they dropped it from the rotation and a PGA Tour event hasn’t been played there since. I don’t think the current players will have as much of a problem because of equipment changes and the fact that they play this kind of course all the time. Back in 1987, golfers were used to wide open, easier courses. Now a days golfers play these tight target golf courses all the time. The par 72 course will be around 7100 yards with four par 3s, four par 5s, and 10 par 4s. The fairways are tight with thick rough, bunkers, and water in play on wayward drives. The greens are small with trouble all over the place. There are island greens, 200 yard carries over water on par 3s, and enormously deep bunkers. There is actually a bunker on the course that is over TWENTY FEET deep. Golfers will need to hit their spots and be as accurate as possible to succeed at this course.
Looking at the course description above, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats and current form to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week. More focus will be put on current form because course information and finding trends for key stats is difficult/impossible for the new courses. Because of all the unknowns of playing at 2 new courses, betting less of your bankroll than usual might not be a bad idea this week. I will not be looking too much into course history because of the new courses as well.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which are key stats every week.
Driving Accuracy (DA):
DA will be important this week, especially at The Stadium Course. The fairways are super tight and the rough is very thick. The other two courses are much more forgiving off the tee so I wouldn’t completely fade inaccurate bombers but missing fairways at The Stadium Course can take you out of the tournament quickly. Missing the fairway at The Stadium Course could lead to impossible approach shots because of how small the greens are and all the troubles surrounding the green.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
Golfers will need to take advantage of par 5s especially on the two easier courses to do well. Playing well on par 5s at Nicklaus and La Quinta will give golfers a little leeway if they struggle at the Stadium Course.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
Since the cut is on Saturday this week having golfers in your lineup who make a lot of birdies should help your DraftKings score. Birdies are 3 points and bogeys are -.5 points on DraftKings. Golfers are guaranteed to play 54 holes so there will be more opportunities for birdies even if they don’t make the cut.
Proximity (Prox):
Even though the greens vary in size depending on which course the golfer is playing, Proximity will be an important stat this week. The Stadium Course has small greens. Hitting it close will be very important there. The Nicklaus course has large multi tiered greens, so hitting the ball in the right spot will still be important there as well.
Bogey Avoidance (BA):
Avoiding bogeys at La Quinta and The Nicklaus course will be important. These courses are easy so golfers can’t lose strokes to the field here. Bogeys will happen at the Stadium Course but avoiding them there could lead to a victory.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from last season but I will take a peak at this year’s stats where applicable.
Patrick Reed ($12,400):
Reed is one of the hottest players on Tour right now. He has six Top 10s in his last 6 events worldwide and finished 2nd in his last two events on Tour. His stats this year show why he’s been so good. In the 2015-16 year so far he is 11th in SG:T2G, 16th in BoB%, 1st in BA, 25th in P5, 26th in DA, and 33rd in SG:P. He hasn’t won on Tour in over a year and the way he’s playing, he’s due. I’m not going very far out on the limb here but he is my pick to win this week. It will be tough fitting him in cash lineups because of his price, but if you can find a way, I wouldn’t be against it. (GPP and cash)
Matt Kuchar ($12,100):
Kuchar had a lot of DFSers worried last week because he made the cut right on the number. He then went 9 under over the weekend to finish a respectable T13. His stats for the course are great. He’s 22nd in SG:T2G, 26th in BoB%, 14th in BA, 4th in P4 scoring, 76th in DA, and 33rd in SG:P. His price is a little high to use in cash games but he makes for a good contrarian GPP play because everyone will be on Reed. Ownership percentage should be low. (GPP only)
Jason Bohn ($10,100):
Bohn is one of my favorite plays this week. He’s affordable enough where you can make a solid balanced lineup with him as your highest priced player and he has tremendous upside. He has made all four cuts during the Fall Series and finished Top 3 in three of them. He’s consistent with great stats for the course like usual. He is my number 1 ranked golfer this week and he will be in my cash lineup. (GPP and cash)
Jason Dufner ($9,800):
Dufner’s price shot up a bunch this week but I still like him. His tee to green game is one of the best and his putter is improving week to week. His overall key stats for the course are not that great but he has two Top 10s in his last two starts and I’m riding the Dufner train until he proves me wrong. (GPP only)
Webb Simpson ($9,600):
If Webb could putt he would be one of the best players on Tour. His other key stats are great and even with a 174th ranking in SG:P he is still my 3rd ranked golfer this week. He’s 7th in SG:T2G, 68th in BoB%, 32nd in BA, 4th in P5, 26th in DA, and 32nd in Prox. If he can somehow get his putter going he has a chance at a high finish. (GPP only)
Charles Howell III ($9,100):
CH3 has been playing exceptionally well so far this season. He has made all six of his cuts and has five Top 17 finishes in those starts. His stats aren’t the best but I think his form is good enough where you can make him a cash play this week. (GPP and cash)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Jan 12, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Sony Open
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history as well as the complete box scores for each of the last three years. Enjoy!
Full Chart Below!
Course Description
The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii this week as Waialae Country Club plays host to the Sony Open. This will be the first large field event of the season and after multiple no cut events in a row, we finally will have cut sweats on Friday. Waialae CC is a complete 180 degree turn from last week’s tournament at Kapalua. The course is a 7,044 yard Par 70 with four par 3s, twelve par 4s, and two Par 5s which are both reachable by almost all the players in the field. The par 5s are actually two of the easiest on Tour. It is also setup right next to Maunalua Bay, which can cause windy conditions. The weather report as of now says that the winds should stay calm (except for maybe Friday) but check closer to lineup lock and make sure. The fairways are tight and fast (as long as there is no rain) with many bunkers lining them and the rough is thick with local vegetation in play on wayward drives. Waialae CC was actually the most difficult course to hit fairways on in 2006 and 2010 (due to wind) and is always inside the Top 12 in this stat every year. The greens are Bermuda grass, average to small in size, and will play fairly fast (around 11 on the stimpmeter) and firm especially compared to last week. Golfers who hit a draw tend to have a slight advantage here. Check out my Fantasy Golf Degenerates podcast cohost’s (@zachwoodsgolf) in depth article on why players with a draw play well here. One last tidbit, 12 of the last 17 winners here have played the week before in Kapalua.
Looking at the course description above, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week. I will look at current form as well but because of the lengthy break for most of the golfers in the field, current form is less important to me than usual.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) which is a key stat every week. Also, if the weather report changes and they say it’s going to be windy, take a look at Scrambling stats because greens will be missed quite frequently if the winds pick up.
Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P):
In the last ten years here 28 of the 36 golfers who have finished in the Top 3 were 86th or better in SG:P for that specific year. In a field like this, anyone who has a SG:P ranking of 90 or better is well above the field average. Of the last ten winners of this event, only Vijay Singh and Mark Wilson were ranked outside the Top 36 in SG:P for that specific year with many of the winners inside the Top 15 in this stat. If the wind is down, this tourney could turn into a shootout and the play on the greens will be the deciding factor.
Par 4 Scoring 400-450 yards (P4/400+):
Depending on how the tee boxes are set up, nine of the twelve par 4s could be from this range this week. 27 of the 36 golfers who have finished in the Top 3 the last ten years have finished 82nd or better in this stat for that specific year with the majority being inside the Top 50.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
If the wind stays light, this tournament could become a shootout. Many birdies are going to be needed to just make the cut. In the last 7 years five out of the seven winners have finished inside the Top 34 in this stat for the specific year that they won. Also 22 of 36 golfers who finished in the Top 3 the last ten years were 82nd or better in this stat for that specific year.
Bogey Avoidance (BA):
If this becomes a shootout like I think it will be, avoiding bogeys is a must. Even though the fairways are narrow and the rough is thick, the course is still fairly easy as long as there is no wind. The winning score is usually around -15 to -18 so making birdies and avoiding bogeys will be key especially for golfers trying to make the cut, which is probably the most important aspect of your PGA DFS lineup. Going six for six in made cuts will almost guarantee you money every week.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from last season but I will take a peak at this year’s stats (Fall Series) where applicable.
Jimmy Walker ($12,200):
Mr. Hawaii played well last week especially on Saturday with a -9. He is the two time defending champion in this event and has three Top 5 finishes here in the last five years. With all the value plays available this week, fitting him into your GPP or cash lineups this week should be easy to do.
Matt Kuchar ($11,500):
Kuchar has had four Top 8 finishes in his last four times playing this event including a third place finish last year. His stats for the course are some of the best in the field. He’s 33rd in SG:P, 20th in P4/400+, 26th in BoB%, 14th in BA, and 22nd in SG:T2G. He will be a staple in my cash AND GPP lineups and he is my pick to win this week.
Brandt Snedeker ($10,900):
Snedeker had a strong showing last week finishing T3 at Kapalua. According to him, he has been working really hard with Butch Harmon during the off season trying to improve his swing after an off year in 2015. It showed last week and since he is one of the best putters in the world, I can see him finishing high and maybe even winning this week. Even though he hasn’t played here in a long time I will still be using him in a bunch of lineups this week.
Russell Henley ($10,300):
Henley has played well at Waialae in the past with three made cuts and a win in 2013. His stats for the course are solid. He’s 5th in SG:P, 57th in P4/400+, 31st in BoB%, and 76th in BA. His price seems a bit high but he finished in the Top 25 in almost half of his events last year and only missed 4 cuts in 2015. I’m not going to overload on him but I will have him in a few GPP lineups.
Harris English ($10,200):
English made three out of four cuts in the Fall and finished in the Top 9 at the Sony Open the last three years with a 3rd place finish last year. He obviously likes the course. This is probably due to the fact that his game matches up with the course well. He’s 10th in SG:P, 59th in P4/400+, 62nd in BoB%, 20th in BA, and 81st in SG:T2G. I feel comfortable using him in both cash games and GPPs.
Charles Howell III ($9,700):
CH3 is the definition of a Horse For The Course golfer this week. He has made the cut here in each of the last ten years with SIX top 5 finishes. His stats last year really don’t match up with the course but I don’t think that matters. His course knowledge should supersede that. Another Top 5 and maybe a win is possible for him this week. I also think he will be one of the higher owned golfers this week in all games.
Will Wilcox ($9,000):
Will the Thrill makes my picks as the final high end golfer I like. His stats like usual are sick. He’s 32nd in SG:P, 5th in P4/400+, 7th in BoB%, 2nd in BA, and 20th in SG:T2G. With these type of stats you would think he would be a safe play every week but for some reason he still misses a bunch of cuts. He has missed the cut in 7 of his last 21 starts but he finished 8th his last time out at the Sony Open. I’ve been battling back and forth on whether or not to use him in cash lineups this week and I’m leaning toward making him just a GPP pick. If he can improve his consistency though, I can see him making moves in 2016. The game is there.
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Jan 4, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
It’s finally here! The first “real” event on the PGA tour this season! Remember, this is a no-cut event with a field of golfers only eligible if they won an event last season. Since this is a small field, there are only 20 eligible golfers who have played this tournament before. Below you will find those players full histories in this tournament as well as the complete standings for the last three seasons including DraftKings Scoring. Additionally, Kendo_VT provides his player analysis for who you should roster and who to avoid. Enjoy!
Course Description
After what felt like forever, the PGA season resumes after a month long break. The first tournament of 2016 is the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, which will be played at The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in sunny Hawaii. As the name of the tourney suggests, the field is comprised of golfers who won a Tour event last year and there is no cut. The Plantation Course is a 7,411 yard Par 73 with four par 5s and only three par 3s. The course itself is like no other on Tour. It was built on the side of a mountain and near the coast, so elevation changes and breath taking views abound. The course is not as long as the yardage suggests due to these massive elevation changes off the tee and because there are only three par 3s on the course. The fairways are very large and the rough is not that penalizing. Pretty standard features for a resort course. The main difference between The Plantation Course and other resort courses the PGA plays on is the hilly, undulating nature of the fairways. There are no water hazards on the course but there are over 90 bunkers that surround the fairways and greens. The greens are quite large but are very hilly, undulating, and slow. The grass used on the greens is Bermuda grass and the speed on the stimpmeter shouldn’t be more than 10 this week. Since the course is so near the coast, trade winds could play a part in how well the golfers play. As of now, the weather report says that Thursday and Saturday might have the strongest winds but it’s not supposed to get crazy like it did in 2013 when they had to cut the tournament short due to intense winds. If the winds are as light as the weather report says, expect low scores. Because of the unique nature of the course and greens, course experience will play a large role in which golfers I like. I would try to avoid newbies to the course in cash lineups this week unless you have no other choice.
Looking at the course description above, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week. I might take a peek at current form as well but because of the lengthy break, current form is less important to me than usual.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which are key stats every week. Though I will be putting more emphasis on SG:P this week due to the difficult nature of the greens.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%)
Only twice in the last ten years (not including ’13) has the winner of this tournament won with a score of less than -15. As long as the wind stays down, making as many birdies as possible will be key. Last year the worst BoB% ranking in the Top 5 finishers was 31st. In the last ten years at Kapalua only 5 golfers that finished in the Top 3 were ranked outside the top 80 in BoB% for that specific year.
Par 5 scoring (P5):
In the last 10 years only 4 out of 38 golfers who have finished T3 or better at Kapalua have finished outside the Top 80 in P5 for that specific year.
Proximity from 50-125 yds (Prox125):
Even though on paper the course is lengthy, the elevation changes off the tee actually make this course a lot shorter than it says. Because of this, a lot of wedges will be hit on approaches to the green. Getting it close with these wedges will be key because of how slow and how hard to read these greens are. Of the 22 golfers to finish T3rd or better here in the last 5 years, 18 of them were ranked 65th or better in Prox125 for that specific year.
Driving Distance (DD):
Shorter hitters have played well here in the past, so I wouldn’t eliminate anyone from consideration just because of their lack of distance off the tee but with huge fairways and very little trouble off the tee, hitting it long should be a slight advantage this week as long as the wedge play is good as well.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from last season but I will take a peak at this year’s stats (Fall Series) where applicable.
Jason Day ($11,800):
Day and Spieth are both solid plays and both have a good chance at picking up the win this week but if you made me choose one, I’d pick Day. His stats for the course are slightly more superior than Spieth. Day is 1st in Bob%, 7th in P5, 6th in SG:P, 5th in SG:T2G, 46th in Prox125, and 3rd in DD. The only worry I have about Day is the extended time off but he is such a good player that it shouldn’t affect him too much. He also has two Top 9 finishes in his two appearances here in the past.
Bubba Watson ($10,300):
When I initially wrote this article I misread the scorecard and thought there were 5 par 5s on the course. I was mistaken and if you read the original article, I apologize. In the initial article I picked Bubba Watson to win because I thought there were 5 par 5s. I’m still not changing my pick. I think other than Day and Spieth, Bubba has the best chance to win. His stats for the course are solid. He’s 3rd in BoB%, 1st in P5, 54th in SG:P, 1st in SG:T2G, and 2nd in DD. He won the last tournament he played and had ELEVEN Top 10s in 2015. This will be the 6th time he has played Kapalua and he has finished as high as 4th in the past.
Rickie Fowler ($10,000):
I expect big things from Rickie this year and it could start this weekend. His stats for the course are solid and he finished 6th in his last appearance at Kapalua. He’s 13th in BoB%, 19th in P5, 35th in SG:P, 26th in SG:T2G, and 39th in DD. His Prox125 stat (80th) leaves some room to be desired but he is 3rd in Prox125 during the Fall season. His much improved wedge game could help him to a high finish this week.
Patrick Reed ($9,900):
Patrick Reed won at Kapalua last year so you know he has the experience to win here. He is also one of the hottest golfers in the world right now. In his last five events worldwide, he has finished inside the Top 10 in ALL of them. In my opinion Reed is a safe cash game option. A Top 10 finish for him seems almost automatic this week.
Kevin Kisner ($9,200):
With all the big name options around the same price range as Kisner (ZJ, Koepka, JT, McDowell), I think he will be a low owned high upside GPP play this week. His 2015 stats for the course are not the best but if you look at his stats for the Fall series, they are solid. In the Fall he was 11th in BoB%, 39th in P5, 14th in SG:P, 9th in SG:T2G, and 61st in DD. He has no previous experience at Kapalua so I probably won’t be using him in cash lineups but I will be using him in a bunch of GPPs. If he can hit his wedges well, he has a chance to surprise people this week.
Below are the full box scores for every player over the last three tournaments. They include everything from round by round scoring to fairways hit to DraftKings points. Also, Kendo_VT continues his player analysis with the mid-tier and value options for this week! These are available to Pro Members.
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Nov 11, 2015 | DraftKings, PGA |
Course Description
The second to last tournament of the 2015 PGA Fall series comes from El Camalèon GC at the Mayokoba Resort in Mexico. As the name of the course suggests, the 6,987 yard par 71 course is unique with three different types of landscapes permeating throughout the course. There is dense jungle, mangrove forests, and oceanfront holes. It is a resort course so the fairways are on the larger side and the rough is not that thick. If golfers miss wildly, many hazards come into play ranging from bunkers, dense jungle vegetation, and water on all but 3 holes. The greens are above average in size with Sea Isle Paspelum grass. Sea Isle grass is similar to Bermuda but much slower. The CIMB Classic also uses this type of grass, so looking at who putted well there can help you this week. The greens should only be around 10.5 on the stimpmeter and with rain in the forecast every day, they could run even slower. Wind could play a factor due to the course being located right by the Caribbean Sea.
Looking at the course description above, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which are key stats every week. For most tournaments, being inside the Top 80 in any stat will be considered above average. Since the field this week is so weak, being inside the Top 100 for any stat will be considered above average for the field.
Driving Accuracy (DA):
Hitting it straight off the tee is my most important stat this week. Golfers will need to avoid the numerous hazards around the fairways to succeed. Of the 30 golfers who finished T3 or better in all 8 years of this tournament, 19 were ranked 100 or better in this stat for the end of that specific year. Bombers have not fared that well here in the past. Accuracy is key.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
There are 11 par 4s on the course and according to previous trends at El Camelèon, golfers will need to do well on them to win. The Par 5s are reachable but the risk involved in getting there in 2 will be high due to all the crazy hazards around the course. 22 of the 30 golfers that have finished tied for or in the Top 3 here have been inside the Top 100 in this stat for that specific year.
Green in Regulation (GIR):
Fairways and greens. Fairways and greens. That should be on the mind of all golfers this week on this course. The greens are large but missing them will lead to a lot of trouble. Whether it be because of water, bunkers, canals, or thick jungle vegetation, missing the greens will cause problems. 22 of the previous 30 golfers who have finished T3 or better at El Camalèon have finished inside the Top 100 in GIR for that specific year.
Birdie or Better % (BoB):
Depending on the weather, the winning score should be around the -13 to -17 range so many birdies will be needed. In the last two years all nine golfers that finished T3 or better have been in the Top 100 in this stat. 7 of the 9 were actually in the Top 50 in BoB for that specific year.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from last season.
Matt Kuchar ($11700):
Kuchar is the highest ranked and best golfer in the field. He has made all his cuts at El Camalèon with a top finish of 3rd. He has two Top 10 finishes in his last three events and all of those tournaments had much better fields. I’m not sure he will win but he has a great shot and a Top 10 finish is highly likely.
Patton Kizzirie ($10700):
Kizzirie’s high price tag worries me a bit because he has hit less than half of his drives in the fairway this season so far. As long as his misses aren’t too wild this week, he has a chance to do well. Other than DA, his stats for the Fall Series (I know it’s a small sample size) are really solid. He’s 15th in P4, 10th in SG:P, 48th in GIR, 15th in BoB, and 31st in SG:T2G. He is one of the hottest golfers on Tour with three Top 5 finishes in his last three starts and a victory is possible soon. I won’t be using him in cash games because of his propensity to miss off the tee but I will be using him in GPPs.
Jason Bohn ($10300):
Bohn has been close to winning a few times this year including finishing 2nd at the Shriners and 3rd at the Frys.Com Open. He is my favorite golfer this week. He’s 5th in DA, 6th in P4, 46th in SG:P, 28th in GIR, 20th in BoB, and 40th in SG:T2G. He has finished in the Top 7 twice in the last two years at El Camalèon including a 3rd place finish in 2013. If you take into account stats, form, and course history he is my #1 ranked golfer by a lot and he is my favorite to take home the trophy this week.
Brendan Steele ($9900):
Steele’s weakness is his putter but he finished 3rd at the CIMB Classic which uses the same Sea Isle Paspelum grass on their greens as El Camalèon. He putted really well that week and I think he does it again. Other than putting, his stats are solid. He’s 97th in DA (still way above average for this field), 10th in P4, 40th in GIR, 14th in BoB, and 15th in SG:T2G. I think he makes for a low owned, high upside GPP play this week.
Wil Wilcox ($9400):
Wilcox withdrew mid round last week so that’s a bit worrisome but he stated on Twitter that he is fine. His exact words were “I promise I won’t WD this week yall.” So I’m going to believe him. His stats are sick. He’s 18th in DA, 3rd in P4, 32nd in SG:P, 4th in GIR, 17th in BoB, and 20th in SG:T2G. With stats like these a win is inevitable and I think he will be the next first time winner on Tour. If not this week, soon.
Chris Stroud ($9300):
I think Stroud makes for a sneaky low owned GPP play this week. He’s priced right in between Wilcox and Keegan who I think will both be in double digits when it comes to ownership percentage. He has finished as high as 3rd at El Camalèon and has two Top 10 finishes in his last three starts. His stats are well above average and I think he can surprise people this week.
Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)
Brendon de Jonge ($8600):
This former Hokie hasn’t played here in a while but in three starts at El Camalèon he has two Top 15 finishes. His stats for the course are great. He’s 44th in DA, 50th in P4, 62nd in GIR, 58th in BoB, and 57th in SG:T2G. He has been on Tour for a while now without a victory but this weak field event presents one of his best chances to get that elusive W.
Brian Harman ($8500):
Harman is another golfer who putted well on the Sea Isle Paspelum greens at the CIMB Classic. He finished 7th there and has great stats for El Camalèon. He’s 55th in DA, 50th in P4, 47th in SG:P, 81st in GIR, and 87th in SG:T2G. A Top 10 finish for him is possible this week.
Alex Cejka ($8400):
Cejka has two Top 17 finishes in his last two starts and finished 16th here last year. He’s fairly accurate off the tee and plays par 4s well. He struggles with the putter but he is another golfer that putted well on the Sea Isle Paspelum greens in Malaysia. Not a cash game play but I can see him doing better than expected this week.
Daniel Hearn ($8400):
Hearn has played here three times and never missed a cut, finishing 16th just last year. He’s ranked in my Top 10 in key stats for the course this week. He’s 58th in DA, 26th in P4, 27th SG:P, 47th in GIR, and 80th in BoB. I like him for cash lineups and GPPs this week.
Kevin Streelman ($8000):
Streelman is accurate off the tee, plays par 4s well, and hits a lot of greens. That’s a solid combo to have this week. He hasn’t played here in a while but finished 3rd at El Camalèon a few years back. He should be very low owned so he makes for a solid boom or bust GPP play.
Spencer Levin ($7800):
Levin hasn’t missed a cut here in his last 5 tries AND hasn’t missed a cut on Tour in his last 6 events. Real good for a golfer with his price tag. His stats for the course are solid. He’s 16th in DA, 26th in P4, 45th in GIR, and 93rd in SG:T2G. He’s only 125th in SG:P but he is another golfer who putted well on the Sea Isle Paspelum greens at the CIMB Classic. He finished 2nd here in 2011 and I think he has a shot to beat that. He is my sleeper to win this week. He will be in my cash game lineup and I will use him in GPPs.
Jim Herman ($7700):
Herman is 33rd in DA, 50th in P4, 2nd in GIR, 105th in BoB, and 52nd in SG:T2G. He’s not the best putter but he putted well in Malaysia a few weeks ago. Yes, there is a theme here. I like players that putted well at the CIMB Classic and he is another golfer that falls into this category. He finished 23rd here last year and a similar performance this week is likely.
Chez Reavie ($7400):
Reavie is accurate off the tee, hits a lot of greens, and has never missed a cut at El Camalèon. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last six events and finished inside the Top 20 in five of them. You could do a lot worse than picking him at an attractive price tag.
Colt Knost ($7400):
Colt has the best stats for the course of all the mid level priced golfers. He’s 7th in DA, 26th in P4, 28th in SG:P, 63rd in GIR, and 79th in BoB. He has never missed a cut at El Camalèon in 5 tries finishing as high as 3rd in 2012. He has also made his last 4 starts on Tour. He will be in my cash lineup this week. He’ll make the cut and has upside for the weekend.
Jerry Kelly ($7000):
Other than GIR, Kelly has outstanding stats for the course especially for his price. He’s 9th in DA, 26th in P4, 44th in SG:P, 50th in BoB, and 69th in SG:T2G. He has made six of seven cuts here with two Top 6 finishes including a 5th place finish last year. He also has made his last 4 cuts on Tour. All solid for his price.
Low End Value Picks ($5400-$6900)
Ben Crane ($6900):
Crane putted and played well at the CIMB Classic finishing inside the Top 30. With his accuracy off the tee and his putting prowess he could surprise people this week.
Kyle Reifers ($6800):
Reifers has made three of his last four cuts on Tour and finished 29th at El Camalèon last year. His stats for the course are solid for his price. He’s 94th in DA, 74th in P4, 98th in SG:P, 72nd in GIR, and 97th in SG:T2G. He surprised people a few weeks back with a 6th place finish at the Frys.Com Open, which had a much stronger field than this week. I’ll take a flyer on him in GPPs to see if he can surprise again.
John Huh ($6800):
Huh won this event in 2012. He hasn’t been playing too well lately but he made the cut last week at Sanderson Farms and has never finished worse than 29th in his three events played at El Camalèon. He’s accurate off the tee and has great course history here. At his price, that’s all I need to deploy him as a punt play in GPPs.
Pat Perez ($6600):
Perez hasn’t been playing well lately but he is actually my #3 ranked golfer when it comes to key stats for the course behind Bohn and Wilcox. I know, crazy right? He’s 43rd in DA, 10th in P4, 25th in SG:P, 48th in GIR, 18th in BoB, and 80th in SG:T2G. He also has two Top 16 finishes here in three starts. He’s a GPP only play but if his game can return to some semblance of his 2015 season, he has a chance to finish higher on the leaderboard than most people think.
Mark Hubbard ($6400):
Hubbard is 3 for 3 in cuts made for the Fall Series this year. He is accurate of the tee and has decent GIR stats. He also made the cut here last year. At $6400, that’s all the reasons I need to use him as a GPP punt play this week.
Tim Wilkinson ($6300):
Wilkinson has made the cut in his last six events (1 PGA, 5 Web.Com) and has made four of five cuts at El Camalèon, with a 10th place finish here in 2013. That’s a solid resumè for someone with such a low price tag.
Jason Gore ($6200):
Gore has made both cuts during the Fall Series and four of five overall. He finished 2nd at the Wyndham a couple of months ago, which is another weak field tournament. His stats for the course are well above average for the field. He’s 36th in DA, 95th in P4, 61st in GIR, 50th in BoB, and 104th in SG:T2G. He is another GPP punt play I like this week.
John Merrick ($6200):
Merrick has played El Camalèon seven times and has made the cut every time. He actually finished 3rd here in 2008. He hasn’t been playing well lately but not many golfers under $6500 have. He’s accurate off the tee, hits a lot of greens, and he’s 48th in SG:T2G. If I had to have a cash game play under $6500, Merrick would be my guy.
Mark Wilson ($6100):
Wilson has won here in the past and has solid stats for the course. He’s 53rd in DA, 74th in P4, 51st in GIR, and 96th in SG:T2G. I don’t think he can win again but he has a chance to make the cut.
Blayne Barber ($6100):
Barber has the 2nd best stats for the course for all golfers under $7000. He’s 70th in DA, 50th in P4, 34th in SG:P, 90th in GIR, and 49th in BoB. He finished 9th here last year and made the cut last week at Sanderson Farms. Really solid for a golfer at $6100.
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