by KendoVT | Mar 1, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
WGC Cadillac Championship
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Desciption and Strategy
The PGA Tour moves slightly south to Miami where the golfers will descend on Doral Resort’s Blue Monster Course for the WGC Cadillac Championship. The Blue Monster at Doral is a 7,500 yard par 72 with 4 par 3s and 4 par 5s. There was a major course redesign in 2013 by Gil Hanse and it completely changed the course. Before the redesign the Blue Monster was one of the easier courses on Tour with winning scores usually in the upper teens to over -20. Since the redesign the course has played the 3rd hardest on Tour in 2014 and 7th hardest in 2015, so looking at previous results from before 2014 might not give you the information you need. Personally I will only be looking at performances and stats from the last two years. Off the tee golfers will see narrow tree lined fairways that are very difficult to hit. Only about 50-55% of drives have seen the fairway off the tee the last two years which is well below Tour average. If golfers miss off the tee, which they will, they will have to deal with strategically placed bunkers, thickish rough, and water everywhere which makes sense since the course is called the Blue Monster. The greens use Bermuda grass and are average in size and slightly above average in speed. Most greens slope heavily from back to front and have a lot of mounds and undulations, making hitting the ball below the hole key. The greens are also surrounded by bunkers, water, and false fronts making this course a difficult test for all golfers.
The field at the Blue Monster consists of 48 of the Top 50 golfers in World Golf Rankings, the Top 10 in Fed Ex Cup point standings, and money leaders from other Tours around the World. The field is stacked and there is no cut. All golfers will play all four rounds making this different than most tournaments when it comes to strategy, especially in cash games. Instead of looking for cut makers to go along w/ your one or two high end picks, you need as many golfers to finish as highly as possible to succeed in cash games this week. Going stars and scrubs is an option but the cream of the crop usually rises in this tournament and the golfers under $7,000 this week definitely don’t fit that mold. If you feel comfortable with a couple of golfers under 7k then I would suggest this method. If not, then don’t worry because there are so many great golfers in the 7k and up range, I can also see using a more balanced attack when it comes to Double Ups, 50/50s, and H2Hs. Both options can fit this week and even I’m not 100% sure on which route I’ll take. If you are looking for an advantage in GPPs, research the many European golfers in the field and find a few that you would like to roster. Since the majority of players on DraftKings don’t keep up with the Euro Tour and its players, finding a low owned European gem could be the way to take down a GPP.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last two years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history (only from the last two years) to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
As I’ve stated in previous write ups, SG:T2G is my favorite stat to look at on extremely difficult courses and the Blue Monster definitely fits into that category. Last year EVERY golfer in the Top 10 finished inside the Top 44 in SG:T2G for 2015. In 2014 nearly half the Top 10 finished inside the Top 17 in SG:T2G for that year.
Good Drive Percentage (GD%):
I like using this stat on courses where hitting the fairway is tough. GD% is defined as the number of fairways hit, plus the number of greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot, divided by the number of par 4 and par 5s played. Fairways will be missed and how a golfer performs when that happens will go a long way in deciding the outcome. Bombers tend to do well on this course so I will also be looking at Driving Distance (DD) this week but you shouldn’t avoid all short hitters because they have had some success here in the last two years as well. Bill Haas, Kevin Na, Jason Dufner, Patrick Reed, Graeme McDowell, and Ryan Moore have all had Top 10 finishes here in the last two years and they are some of the shorter hitters on Tour.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
Since there is no cut, we know that every golfer will be playing 16 par 5s throughout the week. The par 4s and par 3s are very difficult on this course so scoring has to come from the par 5s to compete. In the last two years 15/18 golfers in the Top 10 with recordable stats for the year finished inside the Top 52 in P5 for the specific year they finished Top 10.
Proximity from 200 yards or greater (Prox200+):
Almost a third of all approach shot on this course the last two years have come from 200 yards or more. This is nearly twice as much as from any other distance. Golfers will need to hit it close with their long irons and hybrids this week to have a chance at victory.
Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%):
There is no cut at this event so a golfer making a ton of birdies will be helpful to your team even if he doesn’t finish high on the leaderboard. Say your golfer makes 15 birdies and 15 bogeys throughout the tournament to finish even par and well off the leaders. He will still get around 38 points on DraftKings for those birdies and bogeys. So basically even if a golfer doesn’t finish that highly on the leaderboard because of a bunch of bogeys, he can still help your lineup out because birdies are 3 points and bogeys are only -.5 points on DraftKings.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Adam Scott ($11,600):
Adam Scott is one of the hottest golfers on Tour at the moment. He won last week at the Honda Classic and finished 2nd at Riviera the week before. His tee to green game has always been one of the best but his putter has lost him many tournaments. It seems that he is getting used to the short putter, which makes him very dangerous. In the last two weeks he has been inside the Top 30 in SG:P and if he can keep that up, he can win multiple tournaments this year including this week. (GPP and cash)
Jason Day ($11,100):
The thing that stuck out to me with Day is his price. I can’t remember the last time he was the 6th highest priced golfer on DraftKings. It seems like the perfect time to take advantage of this. He will probably be lower owned than usual and he is Jason Day, one of the best golfers in the world. He hasn’t really showed his true form yet this year but it’s coming and its best to jump on him at this lower price. Remember, this is Jason Day, the 3rd ranked golfer in the world. Use him in GPPs this week. (GPP only)
Henrik Stenson ($10,300):
Stenson is probably going to be one of my highest owned golfers this week. He’s been playing really well this year on the Euro Tour with five Top 11s in six events and he is currently 1st in the Race to Dubai aka the European Fed Ex Cup. On the Euro Tour this year he is 3rd in Scoring Average, 18th in Driving Accuracy, 11th in GIR, and 8th in Putts per Round. He’s not that highly ranked in DD which could make some people shy away from him at this course but there is a good reason why he’s so lowly ranked. It’s because he hardly ever hits his driver. He doesn’t need to because he hits it 280 yards plus with his three wood off the tee and is deadly accurate with that club. This will be a distinct advantage for him this week since the fairways at the Blue Monster are so difficult to hit. He finished 4th here last year and 16th in 2014. In his last three WGC stroke play events he finished 11th, 6th, and 4th. So you know he likes playing against the big boys. He also finished inside the Top 25 76% of the time on the PGA Tour last year. I know it seems like I’m going on a tangent with him but it’s because he is my favorite golfer this week by a pretty wide margin. (GPP and cash)
Justin Rose ($10,100):
Rose has had a fairly good season so far with four Top 16 finishes in his last five events. His stats so far this year line up nicely with the course. He’s 12th in SG:T2G, 11th in BoB%, 19th in DD, 14th in GD%, 21st in P5, 62nd in SG:P and 53rd in Prox200+. He hasn’t fared too well at Doral since the course redesign but that could keep his ownership low, which would be helpful in GPPs. (GPP only)
JB Holmes ($9,400):
Holmes has stated that he loves the redesign at the Blue Monster because the course was too easy before. He likes difficult courses and this is definitely one of them. You can see how much he liked the course last year when he finished 2nd at the Blue Monster on his first time playing the course since the redesign. His stats are solid. He’s 6th in SG:T2G, 35th in BoB%, 69th in P5, 3rd in DD, and 69th in Prox200+. He has been playing very well this season making all six of his cuts with FIVE Top 11 finishes. I like JB a lot this week. (GPP and cash)
Brooks Koepka ($9,200):
Koepka played well here last year with a 17th place finish, his stats are solid, and I love his price. He’s 40th in SG:T2G, 9th in BoB%, 52nd in P5, 10th in DD, 57th in GD%, and 54th in SG:P. He has been playing well this year with three Top 10 finishes and at his price I will be using a lot of him. (GPP and cash)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Feb 23, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Honda Classic
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
The PGA Tour moves to Palm Beach this week for the beginning of the Florida Swing. PGA National’s Champions Course will host this week’s Honda Classic for the tenth time. The Champions Course at PGA National is a 7,140 yard par 70 course with two par 5s and four par 3s. The course is best known for the Bear Trap (holes 15, 16, and 17), a stretch of three difficult holes that will probably decide the winner on Sunday. The Bear Trap is extremely difficult but that doesn’t mean the rest of the course is any easier. The course usually is inside the Top 10 in most difficult courses played on Tour every year. Off the tee golfers will see average size fairways with lots of trouble if they miss. Water and fairway bunkers will be in play off the tee on almost every hole. There is a chance that the rough could be thicker than usual due to the 22 inches of rain the course has seen in the last ten weeks. This is WAY more than usual and could create softer conditions and thick rough making the course longer and more difficult.
The greens use Bermuda grass and are above average in size when it comes to actual square feet. In reality a lot of the greens are long from front to back but extremely narrow in width, which makes hitting the green very tough. Less than 60% of approach shots on this course actually land on the green. That is a very low number on Tour. The greens are elevated, contoured, and surrounded by bunkers, water hazards, and false fronts on almost every hole. The weather could play an important factor. Last year over 5 inches of rain fell on the course during the third round, leaving greens keepers scrambling to try and keep the course in playing condition. As of now there is no rain in the forecast but it looks like the wind will be between 10-20 mph every day of the tournament. This could make the course play extremely hard.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
I like focusing on this stat on difficult golf courses and The Champions Course fits into that category. In the last nine years 20/29 golfers that finished in the Top 3 in this event were inside the Top 80 in SG:T2G for that specific year.
Proximity from 175-200 yards (Prox175) AND from 200 yards plus (Prox200+):
According to @FGMetrics on Twitter, in the last nine years at The Champions Course at PGA National over 50% of all approach shots have been from 175 yards or further. Drivers will be left in the bag on many holes here, making for longer approach shots. Hitting it close from these distances will be a determining factor on who does well this week. 20/29 golfers that finished in the Top 3 the last nine years were inside the Top 80 in this stat for that specific year.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
P4 is always something to look at on par 70 courses but the numbers say it’s even more important here. 20/29 golfers that finished Top 3 since 2007 have been inside the Top 78 in this stat for that specific year.
Scrambling (Scr):
Golfers will be hitting long irons into many of these narrow greens making the green in regulation percentage at PGA National one of the lowest on Tour. Greens will be missed and it will happen quite often. Getting it up and down for par will be key this week. Focusing on Sand Save Percentage (SS%) could be a good idea as well since there are over 100 bunkers on the course.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Rory McIlroy ($12,500):
There is so much value under 7k this week that fitting Rory into your lineups should be easy. His price isn’t too high, he played well last week until Sunday, and he has great history at this course. I think he’s a bit risky for cash games because of his price and the fact he missed the cut here last year. Playing poorly on Sunday at Riviera doesn’t help either but he is a great golfer and can pull out a win any week. (GPP only)
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,300):
Hideki comes in as my #1 ranked golfer overall this week. He’s been playing very good golf this year with five Top 17 finishes including a win in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago. His stats also line up really well with the course. He’s 1st in SG:T2G, 3rd in P4, 12th in Prox175, and 30th in Scr. Expect another good finish from him this week. (GPP and cash)
Phil Mickleson ($10,800):
Ever since Lefty switched swing coaches, he seems more reliable off the tee and on approach shots. It has showed in his performances this year with three Top 11 finishes in four events. He hasn’t played this event too many times but he did finish 17th last year. He’s Top 5 in SG:T2G and he is masterful around the greens. If he can make some putts, he’ll be in contention come Sunday. (GPP only)
Patrick Reed ($10,600):
Reed has made the cut at PGA National all three times he has tried including a 7th place finish here last year. He leads the PGA Tour in Top 10 finishes in 2016 and is the 2nd ranked golfer in my model this week. He’s 20th in SG:T2G, 19th in SG:P, 18th in P4, and 28th in Scr. I see another Top 10 for him this week and I think he has a good chance to win. (GPP and Cash)
Branden Grace ($10,300):
Grace just cracked the Top 10 in the World Golf Rankings and has four consecutive Top 5s on the Euro Tour including a victory at the Qatar Masters a few weeks ago. His stats on the Euro Tour so far this year are solid. He’s 9th in Stroke Average, 27th in Driving Distance, 33rd in Greens in Regulation, 26th in Putts per Round, and 11th in Sand Saves. 5 non Americans have won this tournament since 2008 and I think Grace could be the sixth. (GPP and cash)
Paul Casey ($9,500):
Casey has a good track record here with three Top 12 finishes in four tries including a 3rd place finish last year. He plays par 4s very well and is ranked inside the Top 80 in both key Proximity stats and SG:T2G. He has made 4/5 cuts this year and I think he makes for a safe play this week. (GPP and cash)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Feb 15, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Northern Trust Open
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
The PGA Tour stays in California this week as golfers descend to Los Angeles for the Northern Trust Open at Riviera Country Club. Riviera CC is a 7,300 yard par 71 course with four par 3s and three par 5s. Riviera is known as one of the best and most challenging courses on Tour. Off the tee, golfers will see tight fairways, many fairway bunkers, and challenging doglegs, especially to the right side which should favor right handed golfers who hit a fade or lefties that play a draw. The fairways and rough use kikuyu grass. This grass is rare to the United States and could cause many problems if the golfers hit it in the rough, especially if they have little experience with kikuyu grass. Kikuyu grass is very popular in golf courses in South Africa and Asian countries so that might be something to look at when selecting your golfers for DraftKings this week. Though the rough won’t be too tall, it is very thick. The kikuyu grass tends to grab and bury golf balls that fall into the rough making approach shots much more difficult to control or to get any spin.
On the flip side, if golfers hit fairways, their golf balls will sit up perfectly because of the spongy nature of kikuyu grass but since there is a lot of slope on the fairways, golfers will have to deal with a lot of fade/draw lies. The greens use a combination of bent grass and poa annua grass. They will be very small, fast, firm, undulating, multi tiered, and surrounded by bunkers and false fronts. The 6th hole actually has a bunker RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GREEN, which should make for good entertainment this week. Many people compare this course to Augusta and correlations have been made between golfers that perform well at Augusta and golfers that perform well here. Other than James Hahn last year, every golfer that has won this tournament in the last 26 years has finished inside the Top 22 at the Masters at some point in their careers. Also 16 of the last 26 winners at Riviera have either won or came in 2nd at Augusta at some point in their careers. Another interesting tidbit, only twice in the last 11 years has there not been a two time winner on Tour through the first 14 events in a season.
This is the 14th event and no one has won twice yet this year. The golfers who have won already this year and are in the field this week are: Jordan Spieth, Smylie Kaufman, Justin Thomas, Peter Malnati, Fabian Gomez, Jason Dufner, Hideki Matsuyama, and Vaughn Taylor.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
The tight fairways and small greens make Riviera a difficult course. Looking at trends from the last ten years 34/41 golfers that finished T3 or better were inside the Top 72 in SG:T2G for that specific year. The majority of these golfers were inside the Top 50 in SG:T2G. The average SG:T2G ranking of golfers that finished T3 or better the last ten years is 36th.
Good Drive Percentage (GD%):
Even though this course needs accuracy off the tee, the trends say bombers still do well at Riviera, so if you decide to look at driving distance this week, I can’t fault you. Personally I will be looking more at GD%. GD% is defined as the number of fairways hit, plus the number of greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot, divided by the number of par 4 and par 5s played. I think this stat should be important since you need to hit fairways and you need to hit greens when you don’t hit the fairway. I like this stat a lot this week.
Proximity from 150-175 yards (Prox150):
The majority of the par 4s on the course range from 400-475 yards. This will leave many approach shots from the 150-175 yard range. In the last ten years 35% of all approaches to the green were from this distance.
Scrambling (Scr):
The greens are tiny, firm, and fast with massive undulation and false fronts. Add that to the nasty kikuyu rough around the fairways and the fact that there will be many fade/draw lies from the fairways themselves, greens are definitely going to be missed. How well a golfer gets it up and down will be very important to contend this week.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
Even though there are only three par 5s on the course, P5 scoring will be important. The par 4s are mostly all very difficult. Scoring has to come from the par 5s to do well at Riviera. The 1st hole is one of the easiest par 5s on Tour and if golfers don’t finish the week -4 on hole 1, they will be losing strokes to the field. 30/41 golfers that finished T3 or better the last ten years were ranked 72nd or better in P5 for that specific year. The average P5 ranking for those same players the last ten years is 45th.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from 2016 but I will take a peak at last year’s stats where needed.
Jordan Spieth ($13,200):
Spieth disappointed a lot of people last week but still managed a Top 25 finish by performing very well on Sunday. Because of his poor performance by his standards, I am hoping he will be lower owned than he should be. Yes, he is expensive so I won’t be using him in cash games, but there are a lot of good value plays this week so using him in GPPs just makes sense. Having Rory in the field could motivate him and he has good course history with a 4th place finish last year and a 12th before that. (GPP Only)
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,100):
Matsuyama is coming off his second Tour victory at Phoenix a couple of weeks ago, where he took down Fowler in a very entertaining playoff. He finished 4th at Riviera last year and has excellent stats for the course. He’s 2nd in SG:T2G, 43rd in P5, 58th in DD, 88th in GD%, 25th in Scr, and 60th in Prox150. If his putter gets hot, he can contend. Matsuyama and Spieth are the only two golfers on Tour under the age of 25 with two or more wins. It feels like Matsuyama has been around forever but people forget how young he is and his future looks very bright. (GPP and Cash)
Justin Rose ($10,800):
Rose has great stats for the course, made seven of his last eight cuts at Riviera, and is coming off a 6th place finish last week at Pebble. Basically everything is lining up for him to do well this week and he is one of my favorites to win. I know it’s a small sample size but so far in the 2015-2016 season he is 35th in SG:T2G, 43rd in P5, 15th in DD, 15th in GD%, 7th in Sand Saves (lots of bunkers at Riviera), and 9th in SG:P. Expect a high finish from Rose if not the outright win. (GPP and Cash)
Jimmy Walker ($10,600):
Walker has been having a solid year so far, finishing no worse than 13th in his last five events on Tour. He loves this course. He has made his last eight cuts at Riviera with two Top 4 finishes. The worry I have about him this week is that he didn’t drive the ball that well off the tee last week even though he finished 11th. If he misses too many fairways here, he could get in a lot of trouble because of the kikuyu grass. For that reason alone, I don’t recommend him for cash games this week. (GPP only)
Bubba Watson ($10,400):
In my opinion, Bubba could be in the class of Rory, Spieth, and Day if he could just improve the mental aspect of his game. The talent is obviously there but if he’s playing a course he doesn’t like, his game is usually affected negatively. Luckily for him, he doesn’t have to worry about that this week because he loves Riviera CC. It makes sense because his key stats fit the course. He’s 7th in SG:T2G, 35th in P5, 4th in DD, 10th in GD%, and 65th in Prox150. He won this event a couple of years ago and I think he can contend again this week. (GPP and Cash)
Charles Schwartzel ($9,600):
Schwartzel is coming off a victory on the European Tour last week. He plays well at Riviera with three made cuts in three tries and two Top 5 finishes. He plays on kikuyu grass all the time in his home country of South Africa which should give him a slight edge. He also is a former Masters champion which correlates into doing well on this course. He is another one of my favorites to win this week. (GPP and Cash)
Bill Haas ($9,200):
Haas missed the cut last year at Riviera but in the four years prior he finished 23rd, 3rd, 1st, and 12th. He has had a pretty good year so far with 5/6 made cuts and three Top 10 finishes. His stats for the course are solid. He’s 54th in SG:T2G, 49th in P5, 57th in GD%, 5th in Scr, and 61st in SG:P. (GPP and Cash)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Feb 9, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
The PGA Tour heads up the coast to California this week as golfers get prepared to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. Golfers will be playing on three different courses the first three days: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Shore Course, and Spyglass Country Club. This is another event where the cut won’t be until after Saturday and only the Top 60 and ties make it to the final round on Sunday at Pebble Beach. As the name of the tournament suggests, Tour golfers will be paired with an amateur for at least the first three rounds making this tournament a test of patience for the pros since rounds of golf could take over six hours with the amateurs hacking it left and right. This is an important aspect fantasy wise for this tournament. Golfers with little patience who usually play quickly could be adversely affected this weekend. The weather could also play a big factor this week because Pebble Beach and Monterey both hug the shoreline making windy conditions a distinct possibility though I worry less about golfers at Monterey during windy conditions because the course is fairly easy. Looking at the weather forecast as of now, it looks like Saturday will be windy so focusing on golfers that don’t play Pebble Beach on Saturday could be a good idea this week. Also, looking at golfers who performed well at the Farmers a few weeks ago might help you in selecting your golfers for DraftKings this week. Seven of the last eleven winners here have finished T5 or better at the Farmers in the respective year they won this tournament. Now onto the courses.
Pebble Beach Golf Links is a 7,000 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. Two of the par 5s are reachable by all golfers (2, 6), one won’t be reachable by hardly any golfer (14), and one is reachable for the long hitters (18). The course hugs the coastline making for breathtaking views but also brutal conditions IF the wind picks up. The fairways are above average in size and the rough won’t be too thick. If golfers miss wildly off the tee, OB comes into play since nearly half the holes sit along side the Pacific Ocean. The greens are TINY and slope severely. Many bunkers and false fronts surround the green as well. Golfers will once again have to deal with bumpy poa annua greens on all three courses this week.
Spyglass Country Club is a 6900 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. All the par 5s should be reachable in two by most golfers, plus 17 is a reachable par 4. The course is inland so golfers won’t have to deal with coastal conditions but this course is still the most difficult of the three. The fairways are large but there is trouble off the tee with many bunkers, sand dunes, trees, and water to deal with. The greens are small and have a lot of undulation. Don’t be fooled by the total yardage, it plays longer due to the many elevation changes throughout the holes on the course.
As of now, there is a little discrepancy as to how Monterey Peninsula Shore Course will set up. Last year it was a par 71 with five par 3s and four par 5s. Looking at the First Look article on PGATour.com, it states that this year it is a par 72. This shouldn’t effect anything too much fantasy wise but keep an eye out when the Tournament scorecards are released since they could be adding an extra par 5 to the course this year. The course is around 6800 yards and plays the easiest out of the three courses. It does hug the coastline so weather could play a factor here. The fairways are above average in size and the greens are small. Golfers will have to avoid bunkers, sand dunes, and the ocean to play well here this week.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week. I will be putting more emphasis on Course History due to the fact that this is a Pro Am and not your normal tournament. I can see golfers getting frustrated with the long rounds and the carnival type atmosphere with the amateurs playing along side them. If golfers haven’t played well here in the past, this could be a reason why.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which are key stats every week. I will also take a look at Driving Distance (DD) since the courses are so short but I won’t be excluding short hitters this week.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
As long as the wind doesn’t pick up too much, this tournament will be a birdie fest. The courses are overall short and easy. In the last six years here 70% of the golfers that finished T3 or better were inside the Top 55 in this stat for that specific year. Last year’s winner, Brandt Snedeker made 23 birdies during his four rounds and still only finished T8 in most birdies made.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
Depending on the final layout at Monterey, there could be 17 par 5s played this week with the majority of them being reachable in two. Even if there are only four par 5s at Monterey, this stat will still be important. Looking at the trends from the last six years, 70% of golfers finishing T3 or better have been inside the Top 80 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3. Phil Mickleson famously went -5 on par 5s during the final round in 2012, which he went on to win.
Proximity from 50-125 yards (Prox125):
The three courses are short so a lot of approach shots should come from this range. Last year over 7,200 approach shots were from the 100-125 yard range. In the last six years 75% of the golfers that finished T3 or better were inside the Top 82 in this stat for that respective year. The greens are small so hitting it close with wedges will be important.
Scrambling (Scr):
As stated before the greens are small, especially at Pebble Beach. Not only are the greens small but a lot of them have false fronts and are elevated making it even more difficult to have a good green in regulation percentage. Greens are going to be missed and how a golfer performs when trying to get it up and down will be key this week.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from 2015-2016 but I will take a peak at last year’s stats where needed.
Jordan Spieth ($12,300):
Any week Spieth is under $13,000 on DraftKings, you should use him in all formats. He’s the best in the world and can win any week. The only worry I might have is that this is his first tournament this year in the continental United States but I don’t think it will affect him since he has been playing so much over seas. He has been back in the States for a while so jet lag shouldn’t be an issue. He finished 7th here last year and 4th the year before. I’m guessing he will have multiple wins at Pebble Beach before his career is through. Oh yeah, he’s also my #1 ranked golfer this week. Use him. (GPP and Cash)
Dustin Johnson ($11,400):
DJ has SIX Top 8 finishes here in eight events including back to back victories in 2009 and 2010. His stats for the course are sick. He is 22nd in SG:T2G, 4th in BoB%, 16th in P5, 7th in DD, and surprisingly 11th in Prox125. He will be playing with his father-in-law (Wayne Gretzky) so he might be a bit more comfortable playing with his amateur partner than most others on the course. I like him for a high finish and maybe even a victory this week. If you don’t feel like paying up for Spieth, DJ makes a good secondary option. (GPP and Cash)
Jimmy Walker ($10,700):
Walker has quietly been having a solid season so far this year with FOUR Top 13 finishes in his five events. He is a course horse this week making his last five cuts at Pebble Beach with FOUR Top 9s, a victory two years ago, and his worst finish being 21st last year. His stats for the course are very good. He’s 69th in SG:T2G, 24th in BoB%, 16th in P5, 37th in DD, 31st in SG:P, and 26th in Prox125. I think he is a safe play this week and outside of Jordan Spieth, Walker is my favorite to win. (GPP and Cash)
Phil Mickleson ($10,300):
Lefty comes in as my #2 ranked golfer this week. He missed the cut at the Farmers a couple of weeks ago but I can look past that since a lot of big names didn’t fare too well that week. In his other two starts on Tour this year he has finished 11th (WM Open) and 3rd (CareerBuilder Challenge). Phil loves this course. He has three wins, six Top 10s, and only one missed cut in his last ten appearances at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. His stats line up really well with the course and I think a Top 5 finish or better is in the cards for him this week. (GPP and Cash)
Patrick Reed ($9,600):
Reed has had a couple of down tournaments recently but I think that will keep his ownership low this week, which is a plus. His stats line up nicely with the course. He’s 15th in SG:T2G, 32nd in BoB%, 24th in P5, 3rd in Scr, and 17th in Prox125. He has made all three of his cuts at Pebble with two Top 13 finishes and his worst performance was last year and he still finished inside the Top 30. (GPP and Cash)
Kevin Na ($9,200):
Na has had an up and down career here at Pebble Beach missing four of eight cuts but in 2014 he finished 4th, in 2013 he finished 22nd, and in 2012 he finished 5th so he does have some decent course history here. His stats so far this year correlate very well with the course. He’s 9th in SG:T2G, 14th in BoB%, 64th in P5 (which is amazing given how short he is off the tee), 7th in Scr, and 45th in Prox125. He is also 2nd in Proximity from 125-150 yards which is key since he’s a shorter hitter and he might actually be hitting more approaches from that range rather than from the 50-125 yard range. (GPP only)
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | Feb 3, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Analysis and write-up provided by KendoVT. Don’t forget to scroll to the bottom to see each player’s tournament history.
Course Description
The PGA Tour is in Phoenix this week as the golfers take on TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The WMPO is one of the most exciting and most attended events on Tour. The par 3 16th hole has become one of the most iconic holes on Tour due to the stadium type atmosphere with up to 35,000 spectators looking on, most of which are inebriated and looking more for a good time than actually watching golf. This has led to some memorable moments at 16 from Tiger’s hole in one in the late 90s to James Hahn’s Gangnam Style dance after a birdie a few years ago. Rowdiness has occurred in the past with fans throwing beer cans onto the course and beach balls bouncing everywhere in the stands while golfers are trying to swing. Needless to say, this is not your typical PGA Tour event. TPC Scottsdale is a 7200 yard par 71 course with four par 3s and three par 5s. Tom Weiskopf redid the course a bit two years ago redoing most of the bunkers and adding a little length as well. Since the redesign the fairways are playing a little tighter with many more fairway bunkers coming into play, especially for the longer hitters. The rough shouldn’t be that thick but local vegetation, desert like conditions, and tree troubles come into play for golfers who hit wayward drives. The tournament is in arid conditions, so the fairways should be firm and many balls will roll out giving golfers a bit more distance off the tee than usual. There are also water hazards on about 1/3 of the holes. The golfers will be putting on Bermuda grass greens that are surrounded by bunkers but are above average in size and fairly flat. All three par 5s are reachable by the longer hitters and the par 4 17th hole should be drivable by a large majority of the field. As of now, the weather looks great for the week and shouldn’t play a factor in a golfer’s performance.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
The greens are flat and fairly easy to putt on so the main differential this week between a golfer that does well and a golfer that misses the cut will be the tee to green game. Inaccurate golfers off the tee that hit it long and still hit a lot of greens because they are hitting wedges OR accurate, short drivers who consistently hit it close with their longer irons will benefit the most on this course layout. In the last ten years 28/38 golfers that finished in the Top 3 were inside the Top 66 in SG:T2G for that specific year. Also EVERY golfer in the Top 3 the last two years has been inside the Top 36 in SG:T2G for that specific year.
Driving Distance (DD):
It’s not as easy as it was for the long hitters to hit it over trouble since the course redesign but hitting it long off the tee should still give golfers an advantage. In the last ten years 25/38 golfers that finished in the Top 3 have been inside the Top 80 in DD for that year. If you’re worried how the course redesign has affected bombers, last year Koepka (1st) was 8th in DD, Bubba (T2) was 2nd in DD, Palmer (T2) was 13th in DD, and Matsuyama (T2) was 57th in DD.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
Making birdies every week at any tournament is important but the trends show it might be a little more important at TPC Scottsdale. In the last ten years 30/38 golfers that finished Top 3 or better finished that year inside the Top 67 in BoB%.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
You would think that since TPC Scottsdale has only three par 5s, par 5 scoring wouldn’t be too important. If you look at the trends from the last ten years you would notice that this is not true. 27/38 Top 3 finishers at the WMPO the last ten years have been inside the Top 70 in P5 for that respective year. There are more Par 4s on this course than usual so I will also be taking a peek at Par 4 scoring (P4) stats as well but the trends show that better par 5 scorers have finished in the Top 3 more often than better par 4 scorers.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from 2016 but I will take a peak at last year’s stats where needed.
Bubba Watson ($12,100):
Bubba is the highest priced player this week for good reason. His stats for the course are one of the best in the field and he loves this course. He has three Top 5 finishes at TPC Scottsdale in his last four tries including back to back 2nd place finishes the last two years. His price isn’t outrageous and you can easily afford him this week in cash games AND GPPs with all the value under 7.5k. Though he is not my #1 pick to win, he can easily do it this week. (GPP and Cash)
Brandt Snedeker ($11,800):
I picked Sneds to win last week at Torrey Pines and he came through in the clutch with one of the best final rounds you’ll see under horrid weather conditions. He will be very highly owned this week but I still don’t mind using him. His stats are solid and he has made 8/9 cuts here with four Top 10 finishes. He is playing awesome golf and another Top 5 this week is not out of the question. (GPP and Cash)
Rickie Fowler ($11,600):
Fowler played awful last week but I think that was due to the massive time change he had to deal with winning in Abu Dhabi the week before. He is a world class golfer that can contend every week and I think people will be off him due to his performance at Torrey Pines which makes it a perfect time to put him in some GPP lineups. (GPP only)
Jason Dufner ($10,700):
Dufner has three straight Top 9s on Tour including a victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge a couple of weeks ago. His stats line up nicely for the course. He’s 13th in SG:T2G, 7th in BoB%, 3rd in P5, and 11th in P4. He missed the cut here the last two years which is a bit worrisome but he is currently playing his best golf in years and when he was in his prime a few years ago he had back to back Top 10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale. He is hot right now and I’d go ahead and use him until he shows us something different. (GPP only)
Kevin Kisner ($10,400):
Kisner missed the cut here last year but I wouldn’t worry about it because he is playing some of the best golf of his life right now. He has four straight Top 10s on Tour with a win at the RSM Classic. He is the number 2 ranked golfer in my model when it comes to key stats for the course. He’s 18th in SG:T2G, 1st in P4, 17th in P5, 65th in DD, and 9th in SG:P. He should be near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. (GPP and Cash)
Kevin Na ($10,000):
Na has become a very consistent golfer for DFS purposes this year with FOUR Top 3 finishes in six events so far this season. He has also played well at TPC Scottsdale in the past making 9/10 cuts with four Top 5 finishes. His stats are solid. He’s 9th in SG:T2G, 8th in BoB%, 2nd in P4, 61st in P5, and 62nd in SG:P. If you are making a balanced cash game lineup, you should definitely think about having Na as your highest priced player. A win is coming for him soon and this could be the week. (GPP and Cash)
Ryan Palmer ($9,900):
I love Palmer this week. He is the #1 ranked player on my board when it comes to key stats and he’s my 4th ranked golfer overall. He’s 31st in SG:T2G, 10th in BoB%, 2nd in P5, and 5th in DD. He has made 8/9 cuts in Phoenix with two Top 5 finishes here the last three years. He also has three Top 17 finishes in his last three starts on Tour. I’m taking a bit of a flier this week but Palmer is my pick to win. (GPP and Cash)
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