by KendoVT | Jun 12, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Tournament History, Performance, Stats and Salaries At Bottom!
This is my 35th article written on dfsondemand.com and I’m saddened to say it is my last. My weekly articles will be moving on to another site starting next week. I’d like to thank Rick aka RickRunGood for giving me the opportunity to give my PGA DFS opinions week in and week out for the last 10 months. Without him I wouldn’t have had the chance to reach out to all of you, the readers, with sometimes half decent fantasy golf knowledge. Dfsondemand.com will be running strong with all of Rick’s insight and videos for PGA DFS on the site and Brad Messersmith, my cohost on the Fantasy Golf Degenerates podcast will still be writing his thoughts on the European Tour each week. Rick also has tremendous information on his site for ALL fantasy sports including football, baseball, and basketball. He has grand plans for more Fantasy Golf information on the site in the future. Make sure to check his Twitter for all the latest upgrades to the site. Thanks to all of you that have been reading my material here on dfsondemand.com. You have truly made this one of the most rewarding experiences of my life. Alright, enough of this emotional BS (no not ball striking), let’s move onto what you really want to read: ALL THE US OPEN INFO!!! Here we go!
Course Description
Golfers head to Oakmont, PA this week to play the US Open from Oakmont Country Club. The USGA loves this place as it is the ninth time a US Open has been held here. Oakmont CC is a 7,254 yard par 70 with four par 3 and two long par 5s. At first glance you wouldn’t think the course is too difficult because there is no water, hardly any trees, and large greens. This is definitely not the case. The winning score in 2007 (the last time a US Open was held at Oakmont) was +5. Phil Mickelson earlier this week stated that this course is one of the most difficult courses in the world. You may be asking how this is possible without the usual hazards you see week in and week out on Tour. Well let’s start off the tee. Golfers will be hitting into narrow fairways that slope heavily one way or another leaving uneven lies on approach shots. If the course is dry, the fairways will be firm and quick, which will make holding tee shots on the fairway very difficult unless the golfer hits it in the exact right spot. If golfers miss the fairway they will have to deal with treacherous rough. The first cut of rough will be around 2.5 inches tall and will extend about 15 ft in both directions from the edge of the fairway. Golfers will still have a chance to advance the ball if they just barely miss the fairway and are hitting it out of this first cut of rough. If golfers miss wildly off the tee they will have to deal with a second cut of rough which could be up to 5 inches tall. One of the PGA Tour Live commentators this week said that you could lose a small child in this rough. In 2007 Phil Mickelson hurt his wrist hitting out of the rough and afterwards called the rough “dangerous.” Hitting it in this second cut of rough will be equivalent to a one stroke penalty since golfers will only be able to hit a wedge out and barely hit the ball 100 yards. There are also A LOT of deep bunkers around the fairways the most famous of them being the church pew bunkers on the 3rd and 4th fairways.
The course superintendents actually cut the rough down a little bit around the bunkers, so instead of the ball being stuck in the rough off a missed tee shot, some will trickle into these deep fairway bunkers. Hitting into these fairway bunkers will almost be as penal as hitting it into the rough. There is no water on the course but there are drainage ditches in play on a lot of the holes. These ditches have high, thick fescue growing in them. Members of Oakmont CC have stated that they usually take the stroke penalty and drop out of these ditches. Since we’re dealing with Tour professionals many might decide to hit out of them. This could be a mistake and I’m sure we’ll see a few strokes lost by certain golfers who are trying to be brave and hit it out of these deep drainage ditches. The crazy thing about Oakmont CC is that the tee shot will not be the hardest part of the course. On approach shots golfers will be seeing larger than average greens but they could be rock hard (depending on weather), with wild undulation, and lightning speeds. The greens use poa annua grass and will have a stimpmeter rating of 14 or more. 14 on the stimpmeter is very fast. I heard one quote this week comparing putting on these greens to putting down a flight of stairs with the hole in the middle stair. The rough around the greens are once again very thick and bunkers are in play on almost all approach shots. Another difficult part about approach shots is that a lot of the greens don’t slope from back to front like most courses on Tour. For example hole #1 slopes from front to back and is considered one of the toughest opening holes in golf. If golfers hit it in the rough on the tee shot, there is no way the ball will stop on the green on the approach. If they land short of the green, the next shot will be virtually impossible to stop near the flag due to the front to back slope and the quickness of the green. There are plenty of green configurations like this at Oakmont to go along with many greens sloping heavily from right to left or vice versa. A few other tidbits about the course/event. The par 5s are HARD.
In most tournaments golfers expect a good amount of scoring on the par 5s. This does not reign true at Oakmont CC. In 2007 both par 5s played over par for the week. Another huge factor this week is the weather. If it rains this course can play a lot easier. It will soften the fairways and greens making them both more receptive to golf balls. Everyone remembers Johnny Miller’s 63 in the final round at Oakmont in 1973 to win the US Open. While it was a great feat, it wasn’t that big of an aberration. Oakmont received multiple inches of rain leading up to the tournament and the course played much easier. Not only did Miller shoot a 63, but there were two 65s, two 66s, and a total of 29 rounds in the 60s that week. As of now there is rain in the forecast for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday so there is an outside chance that the course could play easier than everyone is saying. Lastly, the cut is Top 60 and ties. This means more golfers will be cut than a usual tournament. From a DFS standpoint usually in cash games you don’t need the winner to win in Double Ups and 50/50s. You just need as many guys as possible making the cut with maybe a few guys inside the Top 20 on your roster. Because of this I usually don’t roster the most expensive guys each week in my cash lineup. This week is different. Having golfers that finish high will greatly help your chances in succeeding in cash games especially since it will be difficult to get a lineup with 6/6 through or even 5/6 through.
The DraftKings bonus points for placement will be huge this week for your cash game lineups. Since the best odds of winning are usually from golfers that are very expensive, having one of the Top 3 golfers (Rory, Day, Spieth) in your cash lineup could be a good idea. I will definitely be having 1 of the big three in my cash lineup this week. For GPPs the cut being Top 60 and ties doesn’t really change the approach too much. To take down a GPP this week you’ll need the winner, a bunch of guys in the Top 10, and have some low owned guys in your roster that perform well.
Looking at the course description above a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats and current form to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups. I will be placing more emphasis on form than usual since I rely on trends when looking for specific stats at a course. They haven’t played here since 2007 so finding stats based on trends is not feasible. The stats I’m using are based specifically on the course description.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.
Ball Striking (BS):
BS is a combination of Driving Accuracy, Driving Distance, and Greens in Regulation. Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation will be incredibly important this week. The fairways and greens are both tough to hit so looking at this stat makes sense in my book. Distance is not too important but it won’t hurt either.
Scrambling (Scr):
With all the trouble around the course, greens will be missed. Finding golfers who consistently get it up and down will be a plus this week.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
Anytime there are twelve par 4s on a course, I will look at this stat.
Bogey Avoidance (BA):
Pretty self explanatory here at Oakmont.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Jason Day ($12,100):
I’m not going too far out on the limb but Jason Day is my favorite golfer this week and I think he is going to win. I think the big advantage for him will be hitting his 2 iron off the tee like he did at his victory at The PLAYERS. He’s deadly accurate with that club and still hits it about 290 yards. Another advantage Day has is the height of his approach shots. He hits his 5 iron as high as most golfers hit their 7 irons. This will be very helpful to hold the greens on his approaches. He is also a great scrambler, is exceptional from the sand, and is the best putter on Tour this year. I’ll be using him in all formats this week including cash games. (GPP and cash)
Jordan Spieth ($11,900):
I like Rory as well this week but if I had to pick between Rory and Spieth, I’ll take Spieth by a nose. He just shows up in Majors. He has been in the final couple of pairings on Sunday in the last 5 Majors played. He gears up for Majors just like Tiger used to. Even though it seems like he’s been struggling off the tee, he’s actually 18th in SG: Off The Tee this year. His main struggles have come on approach shots but he more than makes up for it with his putting and scrambling skills. He’s going to be supremely motivated after his collapse at Augusta and I think he’s mentally strong enough to not let that haunt him. (GPP and cash)
Justin Rose ($10,500):
This pick hinges on the health of Rose. As of now, everything points to him being healthy for the tournament. I like him this week because he has the patience and mental fortitude to get around this tough track. When he won the US Open a few years ago he started off with four bogeys in his first 11 holes. He fought back and finished that round with a 71. A lot of golfers would have folded but he didn’t and he ended up getting the victory at Merion. He also has experience at Oakmont with a Top 10 finish here in 2007. I think his ownership will be low because of concerns with his health and I think he makes for a fine GPP play this week. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Dustin Johnson ($11,000)-GPP and cash
Rickie Fowler ($10,700)-GPP only
Phil Mickelson ($9,300)-GPP only
Mid Level Golfers ($7100-$8900)
Sergio Garcia ($8,900):
Garcia has six Top 11 finishes in eleven events this year on both the Euro and PGA Tours. He finally got another Tour victory in his last tournament played at the Byron Nelson a few weeks ago. He has come oh so close at Majors in the past and you know he’s itching to finally break through and take one down. Stat wise he’s solid. He’s 11th in SG:T2G, 50th in BA, 42nd in P4, 6th in BS, and 1st in GIR. He also has a masterful wedge game so if he does hit the ball in the rough and has to punch out, he can stick his wedge in close giving him opportunities for par. He struggles a bit around the green but hopefully he hits enough greens this week where it won’t hurt him too much. (GPP and cash)
Matt Kuchar ($8,500):
Kuchar comes in as my #1 ranked golfer overall according to my model. When it comes to stats, he’s elite. He’s 15th in SG:T2G, 12th in BA, 7th in P4, 53rd in BS, 25th in Scr, and 19th in SG:P. He has been red hot the last couple of months with five Top 10s in his last six events including three Top 5s. He also has four Top 15s in the last six US Opens. I know it’s not the same course but the USGA usually sets up the US Open venues in similar fashion. Kuchar will be a staple in my cash game lineups this week and he has solid GPP potential. (GPP and cash)
Patrick Reed ($8,400):
Reed has the talent to win Majors and I think he has a chance this week. He has been having a great year so far and leads the Tour in Top 10s. He has a great tee to green game, avoids bogeys, plays par 4s well, and is an elite scrambler. He has made the cut in seven of his last eight Majors played including back to back made cuts in the last two US Opens. I think he’s underpriced and I like him a lot this week. (GPP and cash)
Daniel Berger ($7,200):
As I’m writing this I am watching Daniel Berger stripe every fairway and make huge birdie putts as he’s in the lead going into the last few holes at St.Jude. If he does win this tournament we are getting tremendous value with him at the US Open. If prices came out after the St. Jude he would be at least $1,000 more. If he can continue this stellar play next week, he can make some noise. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Brooks Koepka ($8,100)-GPP and cash
Brandt Snedeker ($8,000)-GPP only
Charl Schwartzel ($7,500)-GPP and cash
Marc Leishman ($7,300)-GPP only
Jason Dufner ($7,200)-GPP and cash
Low End Value Picks ($5500-$7000)
Webb Simpson ($7,000):
Webb seems to have found a way to putt half way decent. He switched to the Matt Kuchar grip (long putter leaned up against the left arm) right before the Dean and Deluca Invitational. He finished 3rd at the D&D Invitational and followed that up with an 11th place finish at The Memorial. He was 17th in SG:P at the D&D and 66th at The Memorial. The rest of his game is solid and US Open ready. Webb is a former US Open winner and if he can keep his putter going like he has the last few weeks, he’ll be a great value in all formats. He also had a baby last month so the Nappy Factor is in play. (GPP and cash)
Retief Goosen ($6,300):
Goosen is a two time US Open winner and has been playing his best golf in years recently. He has three consecutive Top 15 finishes and has made 12/13 cuts this year. He loves putting on fast greens and I think he should be a shoe in for a made cut with possible upside this week. (GPP and cash)
Lucas Glover ($6,200):
Glover is another former US Open winner and has great stats for the course. He’s 24th in SG:T2G, 3rd in BA, 20th in P4, 1st in BS, and 71st in Scr. He has three Top 11s this year but his fate is going to be decided by his putter. If he can catch some fire with the flat stick he could surprise people this week. The rest of his game seems well suited for the course. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Brendan Steele ($6,900)-GPP only
Bill Haas ($6,900)-GPP only
Harris English ($6,700)-GPP only
Angel Cabrera ($6,500)-GPP only
Robert Streb ($6,200)-GPP only
Anirban Lahiri ($6,100)-GPP and cash
Andrew “Beef” Johnston ($6,100)-GPP only
Tournament History
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That’s it for me! If you enjoy my work, follow me on to my next endeavor. Check my Twitter to see which site I’m moving on to next. Also check out the Fantasy Golf Degenerates podcast on iTunes, where Brad Messersmith and I go over our favorite plays each week. Good luck to all of you and hopefully you win some cash!!!
by KendoVT | Jun 6, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Tournament History, Performance, Stats and Salaries Below!
Introduction
The PGA Tour heads to Memphis, Tennessee this week for the FedEx St. Jude Classic from TPC Southwind. At first glance this looks like a course where many golfers would enjoy playing because all types of golfers have a chance at this course. It’s not too long, it’s not short, and it tests every aspect of a golfers game not just how far a golfer can rip it off the tee. The problem with this tournament is where it’s placed on the schedule. Being sandwiched between The Memorial and the US Open causes many of the top golfers in the world to skip this event. Because of this the field is usually weak and this week is no exception. After the short list of big names the majority of the players in the field are guys looking to move up in the FedEx Cup point rankings, journeymen, or really young guys looking to make a name for themselves. Another problem with this event is that a lot of golfers will WD from the event if they struggle early in the tournament, especially golfers that are playing the US Open next week. Last year Dustin Johnson was highly owned here and WD after 9 holes from an “illness.” My guess is he wasn’t really sick, he just bogeyed the first three holes and went into DGAF mode. He was at Chambers Bay less than 24 hours after his WD, so how sick was he really? From a DFS standpoint, this makes it a little tougher week than usual. As a DFS player there are two ways to go about week’s like this. You can either limit you bankroll usage and save your money for week’s where you feel more comfortable. This is probably the best option for DFSers who rely solely on stats and don’t do much homework on lesser known golfers and how specific golfers are truly playing. If you’re a hardcore golf guy and watch a lot of golf to go along with your normal DFS research, this might be the kind of week where you just use your normal bankroll or even up the ante a little bit. Having knowledge of the lesser known golfers and how certain golfers are playing recently even if their stats for the year are poor can give you a leg up this week. Whichever direction you choose, I’ll be here to help guide you through the tournament and hopefully to DFS glory! Now onto the course.
Course Description
TPC Southwind is a 7,239 yard par 70 course with four par 3s and two reachable par 5s. Off the tee golfers will face narrow fairways that are very difficult to hit. If golfers miss the fairway, which they will, they will have to deal with some trees, bunkers, and a good amount of water. Speaking of water, even though it’s only in play on about 10 holes, more balls have found the water here at TPC Southwind than any other course on Tour since 2003. TPC Sawgrass is the next closest and it still has about 1000 less water balls than TPC Southwind. Luckily the rough is not too thick so both supremely accurate golfers and golfers who hit it a mile but don’t miss too wildly will have a slight advantage here. On approach shots golfers will see smaller than average greens with bunkers and water surrounding them. There are a lot of long par 4s on this course and nearly half of all approach shots come from the 150- 200 yd range, so finding golfers with good mid iron games will be important. The greens are tough to hit, undulating, use Bermudagrass, and are firm and quick with a stimpmeter rating of around 12. Weather can also play a factor as it’s usually very hot and humid in Memphis this time of year and many storms can just pop up out of nowhere. As of now it looks like it’s going to be very hot and humid this weekend but not much rain is in the forecast and the winds should stay light. We all know how incorrect weather forecasters can be so check the weather on Wednesday night to see if there will be any advantages of playing golfers in either the AM/PM or PM/AM wave.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
I really like looking at trends for the course over the years to judge what stats to use each week. Because of the history of weak fields at this event it was tough to pick out stats based solely on trends. The one that stuck out to me was P4. P4 is important in all events with 12 total par 4s but the trends say it’s more important at TPC Southwind. The average P4 ranking for golfers that finished T3 or better since 2005 is 65th which is much higher than any other stat this week. 31/45 golfers with recordable stats that finished Top 3 were inside the Top 95 (well above average in this field) in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3.
Good Drive Percentage (GD%):
GD% combines fairways hit off the tee and greens hit from off the fairway. Since the fairways and greens are both hard to hit, I think this stat can be very useful when picking golfers this week.
Ball Striking (BS):
There is some overlap between GD% and BS but I still think it is an important stat at TPC Southwind. BS is Total Driving (Driving Accuracy + Driving Distance) plus Greens in Regulation. Finding golfers who are accurate, can hit it somewhat far, and hit a lot of greens will be key at TPC Southwind.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green (SG:ATG):
The greens are small and they will be missed. How a golfer does getting it up and down from around the green will be important. You could use scrambling statistics instead but with the advent of SG:ATG I think it is more accurate in showing how a golfer truly fares from around the green compared to his counterparts than normal scrambling stats.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Phil Mickelson ($11,300):
I like DJ this week but I’m not sure how much of him I’ll have due to his propensity to not care too much during events right before a Major. I won’t be fading him completely because he is a class above all the golfers in the field, but my weight on him will be light. Instead, my main focus up top will be between Phil and Koepka. Phil has been playing decent recently with a couple of Top 20s in his last three events. He also seems to play this course very well with a 2nd, 11th, and 3rd place finish here the last three years. His stats are well above average for the field and I feel that he’s the type of golfer you don’t have to worry about withdrawing mid tournament. There are many instances where he has won or finished near the top at tournaments right before a Major including this one. He’s a fiery competitor who wants to win at everything he does, so the risk of him over looking this tournament is small. (GPP and cash)
Brooks Koepka ($11,100):
Koepka is my #1 ranked golfer overall this week. Stat wise, he’s a monster. He’s 27th in GD%, 7th in P4, 27th in BS, 42nd in SG:T2G, and 40th in SG:P. He’s also 41st in Proximity from 150-175 yards and 7th in Proximity from 175-200 yards. As stated before in the course description, nearly half of all approach shots come from this range. He struggles a bit around the green but hopefully he hits enough GIRs to compensate for that. He’s been playing well recently making 3/4 cuts the last couple of months including a 21st place finish at The Masters and a 2nd place finish in his most recently played event at the Byron Nelson. He has only played this event twice but finished 19th in 2014 and 3rd last year. He has immense talent and another victory for him is on the horizon. It could even come this week. (GPP and cash)
Gary Woodland ($10,400):
Woodland’s game has improved tremendously since he went back to his old swing coach Butch Harmon. Since he reunited with Butch in late March, Woodland has reeled off six straight Top 33s with a 12th (Byron Nelson) and 4th (The Memorial) place finish in his last two tournaments played. He hasn’t played TPC Southwind in a few years making me wary of using him in cash games but finished 18th here his last time out. Other than GD%, his stats are very solid. He’s 32nd in P4, 40th in BS, 75th in SG:ATG, 14th in SG:T2G, and 3rd in Proximity from 150-175 yards. He hasn’t won in a while but with his current form and new found confidence while working with Butch, I think he has a shot at contending this week. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Ryan Palmer ($10,800)
Daniel Berger ($10,100)
Charles Howell III ($9,400)
Mid Level Golfers ($7100-$8900)
David Hearn ($8,400):
Shockingly Hearn is my #1 ranked golfer when it comes just to stats. He’s 14th in GD%, 32nd in P4, 50th in BS, 66th in SG:ATG, 61st in SG:T2G, 22nd in Proximity from 150-175 yards, 23rd in Proximity from 175-200 yards, and 91st in SG:P. Now stats don’t always paint the whole picture so we need to look at his current form as well and it is solid. He has five Top 28s in his last six events played including three Top 20s in that span. He has also made 4/5 cuts at TPC Southwind in his career. I’ll be riding the hot hand with Hearn this week in all formats. (GPP and cash)
Francesco Molinari ($8,100):
Molinari killed a lot of lineups last week including a bunch of mine but I feel like last week might have been an aberration due to the fact that he played the Euro Tour the week before. Jet lag could have definitely been a factor as he started out ok on Thursday but looked tired and faded on Friday to miss the cut. Hopefully this keeps his ownership down as I think his game suits the course. He’s accurate off the tee, has a great tee to green game, and scrambles well. Before his MC last week he had made 5 cuts in a row with three Top 17 finishes including a 7th at The PLAYERS and a 9th place finish at Bay Hill. He has never played TPC Southwind making him a GPP play only but I think he has a good chance of getting back on track this week. (GPP only)
David Toms ($7,600):
Toms has been on a nice run lately making 6/7 cuts with a couple of Top 25 finishes in that span. His stats for the course check out nicely. He’s 30th in GD%, 32nd in P4, 102nd in BS (right around average for this field), 7th in SG:ATG, 54th in SG:T2G, and 56th in SG:P. He has a somewhat checkered past here at TPC Southwind, especially recently but I think I can look past that with his solid form and stats to use him in all formats this week. (GPP and cash)
Retief Goosen ($7,600):
Goosen has been very consistent this year making his last 10 cuts on Tour. His game has actually been trending up recently with a 14th (Wells Fargo) and 12th (The PLAYERS) place finish in his last two events played. Stat wise he’s just middle of the pack but he does well around the greens, has good Proximity stats from 150-175 yards, and is a top notch putter. He missed the cut here last year but made his four cuts prior and finished 3rd here in 2011. If you putt a gun to my head and told me I had to pick between Toms and Goosen at this price for cash games, I’d lean toward Goosen. (GPP and cash)
Spencer Levin ($7,400)
Levin is just a GPP flier for me this week but his stats for the course are too good to ignore. He is actually my 4th ranked golfer this week when just taking stats into account. He’s 21st in GD%, 63rd in P4, 65th in BS, 41st in SG:ATG, and 70th in SG:T2G. He has made his last two cuts on Tour with a 57th at The Memorial and a 4th place finish at the Byron Nelson. He also has two Top 25 finishes his last three times out at TPC Southwind. I expect him to be low owned and he could do very well this week. (GPP only)
Tim Wilkinson ($7,200):
Wilkinson has been a popular play recently and looking at his form, it’s pretty easy to see why. He has made his last six cuts on Tour and he’s always available on the cheap on DraftKings. It’s not like he’s just barely making the cut and finishing poorly either. During this six tournament span he has four Top 30s and two Top 11s. If it was just about form I probably wouldn’t have written him up. His stats for the course are great. Like Top 10 great. He’s 139th in GD% and 133rd in BS which is a little below average but he’s 5th in P4, 15th in SG:ATG, 72nd in SG:T2G, 2nd in Proximity from 150-175 yards, 27th in Proximity from 175-200 yards, and 11th in SG:P. He’s also 8th in Bogey Avoidance which can help this week because of all the possible trouble spots out on the course. He has made his last two cuts at TPC Southwind and I’ll be using him in quite a few GPP lineups this week. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Jon Curran ($8,300)
Chad Campbell ($7,800)
Jason Bohn ($7,300)
Bud Cauley ($7,200)
Scott Stallings ($7,100)
Low End Value Picks ($5400-$7000)
Ben Crane ($7,000):
Crane has been trending upward with a couple of Top 30 finishes in his last two events. Stat wise he’s just average but he is a very good putter and well above average in GD% and P4. The reason I’m on him this week is because he is a huge fan of this course. He has made seven consecutive cuts here with four Top 20s and a win in 2014. Combining that with his solid recent form makes him a solid play for his price in all formats this week. (GPP and cash)
Patrick Rodgers ($7,000):
First off let me say that Rodgers is NEVER a cash game option. He’s super volatile and I don’t think consistency is in his vocabulary. I do like him a little this week for GPPs though. Stat wise he’s actually ranked 5th for me this week. He’s 36th in GD%, 25th in P4, 19th in BS, 71st in SG:ATG, and 50th in SG:T2G. He finished 29th here last year and he does have five Top 21 finishes this year predominantly in weak field events. (GPP only)
Alex Cejka ($6,700):
Cejka has some decent recent form making three out of his last four cuts including a 9th place finish at The PLAYERS. He has made his last three cuts at TPC Southwind and finished 22nd last year. His stats for the course do line up real well this week. He’s 56th in GD%, 32nd in P4, 73rd in BS, 46th in SG:ATG, 65th in SG:T2G, and 93rd in SG:P. He’s also 14th in Bogey Avoidance so that’s a plus as well. I’ll have a few shares of him in my stars and scrubs GPP lineups. (GPP only)
John Merrick ($6,200):
After a dreadful start to his season, Merrick has made consecutive cuts for the first time all year during his last two tournaments played. His course history here is superb for a golfer at his price. He has made seven cuts in a row at TPC Southwind with two Top 11s and a 2nd place finish here in 2012. Combine his form and course history and I think he makes for a good play this week. I’m even thinking about rostering him in cash games just so I can afford more of the top golfers this week in a weak field. (GPP and cash)
Others to look at in this price range:
Camilo Villegas ($6,900)
Cameron Percy ($6,800)
Lee McCoy ($6,700)
Blayne Barber ($6,600)
Tournament History
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That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I also host a web chat on Slurv.com every Wednesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. I will be posting a video with my favorite cash game plays on Slurv.com every week as well. Follow me on Twitter for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!
by KendoVT | May 30, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Introduction
This week the world’s best golfers head to Dublin, Ohio to play Jack’s tournament aka The Memorial from Muirfield Village. Jack Nicklaus helped design the course at Muirfield Village and created this tournament in 1976. Since then it has become one of the premiere non major events on Tour with most of the top golfers in the world coming to play this event year in and year out. Like last week this is an invite only tournament with around 120 golfers in the field and with the cut still being Top 70 and ties, an aggressive approach in lineup construction could be a good idea. Elite golfers have had a lot of success here and with nearly 60% of the golfers in the field making the cut, stars and scrubs lineups are a very viable option this week in GPPs. For cash games taking an aggressive approach is a solid play but I would stop short of a stars and scrubs approach. Like I said earlier, elite golfers usually fair the best here so having multiple golfers under $7,000 could be too risky this week in cash games especially since the field is reduced, which leads to many more lineups with 5/6 or 6/6 through than in a normal full 150+ golfer field. You will need at least 5/6 through to win in cash games this week so digging too deep in the value well could be a recipe for trouble.
Course Description
Muirfield Village is a 7,392 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s which are all reachable in two by most golfers. Off the tee golfers will see wide tree lined fairways with deep fairway bunkers and water in play on 11 holes. Golfers that miss these wide fairways will have to deal with thick rough which will make the approach shots into these smallish greens way more difficult. The greens are made from bentgrass and are firm and lightning quick with a stimpmeter rating of 13 or more. Once again water and sand come into play around the greens and the greens themselves are very hilly and undulated. Since the fairways are fairly easy to hit, this course is definitely an approach shot driven course. Finding golfers with good iron play will be key this week.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P), which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
Looking at the trends from the last ten years SG:T2G and par 4 scoring look like the most important stats for this course. 33/40 golfers that finished Top 3 or better since 2005 were ranked inside the Top 62 in SG:T2G for the specific year they finished Top 3.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
The par 4s at Muirfield Village are tough but golfers who perform well at par 4s have had an advantage here over the years. Since 2005 34/40 golfers that finished Top 3 or better were ranked inside the Top 62 in P4 for the year they were in the Top 3.
Par 5 scoring (P5):
All the par 5s are reachable in two and the majority of scoring will come from the par 5s this week. 31/40 golfers that finished Top 3 or better since 2005 were ranked inside the Top 68 in P5 for the year they finished Top 3.
Greens in Regulation (GIR):
As stated in the course description this course is a second shot course. Approach shots will be the most important factor on whether a golfer does well or not this week. Hitting greens and getting it close will be key. Looking at proximity stats could be helpful as well.
Scrambling (Scr):
If golfers miss the fairway they will have to deal with some sizable rough. Add that to the small, undulating, and firm greens, no golfer is going to hit every green in regulation. How a golfer gets it up and down from these misses will play a very important part in deciding the outcome this week.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Jason Day ($12,400):
It’s really tough picking a favorite guy from the Top 3 golfers in the field this week but I have to give Jason Day a slight edge over Rory and Spieth. I will be using all three golfers in my 50 or so GPP lineups but I like Day the most. The big stat that jumps out at me between these three golfers is Strokes Gained on Approach (SG:A) shots. Like I said earlier Muirfield Village is a second shot driven course and Day is the best approach player between the three this year. He’s ranked 29th in SG:A while Rory is 62nd and Spieth is 106th. Day does have the worst track record of the three here at Muirfield Village but I can look past that because of the way he has been playing this year. Not much separates these three golfers in terms of skill but Jason Day has looked the sharpest out of the three this year. (GPP only due to his price)
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,600):
Hideki has been on a nice run lately with four straight Top 11 finishes including a 7th at The Masters and another 7th at The Players. He has played Muirfield Village twice winning two years ago and finishing 5th here last year. His stats for the course are elite. He’s 4th in P4, 5th in SG:T2G, 22nd in P5, 11th in GIR, and 60th in Scr. Hideki is my #1 ranked golfer overall and if he can get his flat stick working well on these quick Augusta like greens, he can contend for another victory at Muirfield Village this week. (GPP and cash)
Matt Kuchar ($9,900):
Kuchar seems to be one of my picks every week and it really has payed off recently. In his last five events he has finished 9th, 42nd, 3rd, 3rd, and 6th. He has stated in interviews that he loves playing at Muirfield Village and it really shows in his results. He has made all eight of his cuts here with SEVEN Top 15 finishes, FIVE Top 10 finishes, and a victory here a few years ago. Stat wise he’s 12th in P4, 15th in SG:T2G, 17th in P5, 53rd in GIR, 26th in Scr, and 36th in SG:P. He’s my #2 ranked golfer overall and will be a staple in my cash lineup along with Hideki Matsuyama. (GPP and cash)
Others to look at in this price range:
Dustin Johnson ($10,100)
Bubba Watson ($9,600)
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by KendoVT | May 23, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Tourney History, Performance, Odds, Etc (At Bottom)
Introduction
The PGA Tour stays in Texas this week as golfers tackle the Dean & Deluca Invitational from Colonial Country Club in Ft. Worth. As the name of the tournament suggests, this is an invite only tournament with a smaller field of just around 125 golfers. With the cut still being Top 70 and ties only around 50 golfers will be cut rather than the normal 80 or so. For DFS purposes, this means you can be slightly more risky with your picks in cash games since less golfers are going to be cut. I don’t advise using a stars and scrubs approach for cash games in tournaments with a cut but if there is any week to do it, it would be this one. For GPPs nothing really changes. You have to still get 6/6 through while having the winner and the other five guys placing high.
The course seems to favor experienced golfers. Since 2001, the winners of this event have averaged 8 appearances at Colonial before their victory. Only 8 golfers in 67 years have gotten their maiden victory here. Last year Chris Kirk (27 years old) was the youngest winner at Colonial since 2001. Every other golfer that won here between 2002 and 2014 was above 31 years old.
Weather also plays a big factor as it does in most Texas courses. Wind and rain are prevalent and looking at the forecast this week, it looks like Thursday and Friday are going to be very windy with rain likely. Make sure you check the weather report Wednesday night to see if there will be any advantages in specific tee time waves. Now onto the course.
Course Description
Colonial Country Club is a 7,200 yard par 70 course with four par 3s and only two par 5s. Off the tee golfers will see tight tree lined fairways with thick rough and bunkers in play on most tee shots. The fairways are difficult to hit as only around 57% of all tee shots reach the short grass. This is definitely a thinking mans course as it favors precision more than length. There are many doglegs making it much harder to just bomb drives out there. Golfers will need to hit to certain spots to have a clear approach to the green. This leads to many golfers leaving their driver in the bag on a lot of tee shots. On approach shots golfers will see small greens with a little undulation. Bunkers surround most greens and water is in play on at least four approach shots on the course. The greens use bentgrass and if the weather holds up they should play firm and fairly quick with a stimpmeter rating of around 12.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
SG:T2G is an important stat every week but when you look at the trends over the last ten years at Colonial it seems like it is more important here than on other courses. 28/38 golfers that finished 3rd or better the last ten years were ranked inside the Top 76 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3. Taking a peak at Strokes Gained on Approach Shots might be a good idea as well.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
Anytime there are twelve par 4s on a course, P4 should be looked at. This week is no different. 27/38 golfers that finished in the Top 3 the last ten years were ranked inside the Top 79 in this stat for the respective year they finished Top 3.
Good Drive % (GD%):
GD% takes into account driving accuracy and greens in regulation. With the hard to hit fairways and small greens, both of these stats will be important this week.
Scrambling (Scr):
With the tight fairways, thick rough, and small greens, no golfer is going to be perfect in greens in regulation this week. Greens will be missed and how well a golfer gets it up and down could decide the outcome on Sunday.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Matt Kuchar ($11,000):
Kuchar has been a fixture in my last few picks articles and it’s for good reason. He is playing some of his best golf in years recently. He has three Top 10s in his last four events including back to back 3rd place finishes at The Players and The Byron Nelson. He has experience at Colonial, playing here eight times, making seven cuts, and accruing three Top 16s. He was the runner up here in 2013 so you know that he can contend at this course. Stat wise he is solid. He’s 14th in SG:T2G, 15th in P4, 35th in GD%, 13th in Scr, and 33rd in SG:P. He is my #1 ranked golfer overall and I’ll be using him in all formats. (GPP and cash)
Charley Hoffman ($10,400):
Hoffman’s stats are just ok for the course but his current form and course history is too hard to ignore. In his last four made cuts on Tour he has finished inside the Top 15 in all of them and had a victory a few weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open. This is his eighth appearance at Colonial and he has never missed a cut with three Top 18 finishes in his last four tries. I worry a little about his driving accuracy (DA) stats but since he’ll probably be playing less than driver off the tee his poor DA stats should be neutralized. (GPP and cash)
Kevin Chappell ($9,600):
If you ask the golfers on Tour who the best golfer without a victory is, the majority will say Kevin Chappell. He has come close twice this year coming in 2nd to Jason Day at both the PLAYERS and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has made his last four cuts at Colonial with two Top 20s in his last two starts and has above average stats for the course. He has a great tee to green game, makes a bunch of birdies, and plays par 4s well. He is going to win soon and I’m going to be on him every week until he does. (GPP and cash)
Others to look at in this price range:
Adam Scott ($11,300)
Zach Johnson ($10,700)
Kevin Na ($9,200)
Mid Level Golfers ($7100-$8900)
Danny Lee ($8,800):
Lee has been playing well since The Masters making 5/6 cuts with three Top 20 finishes. He lives in Texas and seems to do well at events in his adopted home state. He is my #4 ranked golfer overall this week and has great stats for the course. He’s 36th in SG:T2G, 75th in P4, 65th in GD%, 52nd in Scr, and 23rd in SG:P. He hasn’t missed a cut at Colonial in three tries and had a high finish of 10th here last year. (GPP and cash)
Colt Knost ($8,300):
Knost was one of my picks last week and he came through with a solid 4th place finish at the Byron Nelson. As I said last week, he is having the best year of his career making 16/17 cuts and has been playing exceptional recently with three Top 14 finishes in his last three events including a 3rd at the PLAYERS and a 4th last week. His stats for the course are just above average but he is supremely accurate off the tee, hits well from the sand, and is a very solid putter. All of these things will be needed this week to do well and I think Knost can keep his good play going. (GPP and cash)
Chez Reavie ($7,300)
After a solid stretch of golf in February and March, Reavie went through a mini slump but it looks like he has snapped out of it with a solid 18th place finish last week at the Byron Nelson. He has made 4/5 cuts at Colonial with two Top 11 finishes. He’s 24th in SG:T2G, 23rd in P4, and 6th in GD%. His scrambling and putting stats are a bit worrisome but he has great proximity stats from all distances and has a very high GIR%. These should be able to counteract his poor putting and scrambling and I expect him to easily make the cut and possibly make some noise on the weekend. (GPP only)
Bryce Molder ($7,100):
Molder has been running hot lately making his last eight cuts with five Top 26 finishes. He was in contention last week until a poor Sunday led to a 24th place finish. He has great stats for his price. He’s 84th in SG:T2G, 66th in P4, 48th in GD%, 20th in Scr, and 14th in SG:P. He has also made 5/6 cuts at Colonial so he has the experience factor as well. I think Molder is under priced this week and I’m comfortable using him in all formats. (GPP and cash)
Others to look at in this price range:
Bill Haas ($8,700)
Jim Furyk ($8,600)
Jason Dufner ($8,400)
Boo Weekley ($7,400)
Low End Value Picks ($5400-$7000)
William McGirt ($7,000):
McGirt comes in as my #9 ranked golfer overall and #4 ranked golfer when it comes just to stats. He’s 33rd in SG:T2G, 29th in P4, 22nd in GD%, 11th in Scr, and 91st in SG:P. He has been on a good run lately making his last four cuts with two Top 20 finishes. He has played Colonial five times and has only missed the cut once. (GPP and cash)
Daniel Summerhays ($7,000):
When it comes to golfers in this price range I like to look at current form a bit more than stats. Summerhays’ form is as good as any in this price range. He has made six of his last seven cuts with four Top 25 finishes including three in a row at the Valero, Wells Fargo, and the PLAYERS. His stats aren’t great but he makes a good amount of birdies and is an elite putter. He has made his last three cuts at Colonial and I don’t think a Top 25 here is out of the question. (GPP only)
David Hearn ($6,400):
Hearn has made five of his last seven cuts on Tour with three Top 28 finishes in his last four events. He has made 4/5 cuts at Colonial and has great stats for the course. He’s 75th in SG:T2G, 66th in P4, 16th in GD%, and 27th in SG:P. His scrambling stats are poor but he is 4th in overall proximity which should neutralize his poor scrambling. (GPP and cash)
Si Woo Kim ($5,900):
Si Woo started the year off strong but faded a bit in February and March. Since then though, it looks like his game is getting back on track. He actually comes in as my 21st ranked golfer overall in my model this week. He has made four of his last six cuts with three Top 25 finishes and has exceptional stats for his price. He’s 58th in SG:T2G, 48th in DA, 22nd in Scr, and 90th in SG:P. If you’re looking to make a stars and scrubs lineup, Si Woo looks like a good option this week. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Will Wilcox ($6,700)
Emiliano Grillo ($6,700)
Adam Hadwin ($6,600)
George McNeil ($6,600)
Michael Kim ($6,500)
David Toms ($6,300)
Tournament History
Download Tournament History, Performance, Odds, Salaries, etc.
That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I also host a web chat on Slurv.com every Wednesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. I will be posting a video with my favorite cash game plays on Slurv.com every week as well. Follow me on Twitter for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow us on Twitter for more player analysis this golf season!
Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by KendoVT | May 16, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Introduction
After a somewhat strange PLAYERS Championship which saw 16 of the Top 32 ranked players in the field miss the cut on a course that played extremely easy before the weekend and saw Jason Day win, embedding himself as the world’s best golfer (it’s not even close) the PGA Tour moves back to the state of Texas to play the AT&T Byron Nelson. It will be held at TPC Four Seasons at Los Colinas which has hosted this event since the 80s but went through a massive course redesign in 2008, meaning course history before 2008 is basically useless. It is a tough track and is routinely voted as one of the worst courses on Tour by the players. It is also difficult to predict for DFS purposes because a myriad of players have won here ranging from the world’s elite (Jason Day and Adam Scott) to guys who can’t even break 80 anymore (Stephen Bowditch and Brendon Todd). Mike Weir came in second place just two years ago. Mike friggin Weir… Another difficult aspect of this course for DFSers is the fact that winners here have ranged from long bombers to short knockers leaving the majority of the field as possible options to roster this week. It’s tough to shorten down the field with length or accuracy off the tee because both types of golfers have faired well here in the past.
Golfers that hit it a mile should have an advantage because of the hard to hit fairways (missing the fairway and having a wedge in your hand is a lot easier than missing and having a 7 iron) but accurate short hitters who hit a lot of greens have just as good of a shot at a high finish. Weather is another big factor as we saw last year when 12 inches of rain fell on the course in the days leading up to the tournament, including 5 inches of rain falling in one night in between the first and second rounds. This led to a hole being shortened from a normal par 4 to a 100 yard par 3 because of all the standing water. Rain is in the forecast Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday this week but it doesn’t look like we’ll have the same problems as last year because it’s not going to be too torrential. Wind can also play a big part in the outcome as seen by Keegan Bradley’s win a few years ago where he shot just -3 to get the victory. Wind played havoc that week but as of now, it looks like the wind will be light.
Course Description
TPC Four Seasons is a 7,166 yard par 70 course with four par 3s and only 2 par 5s which are both reachable by most. Off the tee golfers will face tight tree lined fairways with many bunkers and water on 8 of the holes. These fairways are tough to hit as only around 55% of drives here actually land on the fairway. The trees aren’t that tightly bunched and if golfers are super wild off the tee they could still be ok as if you miss extremely left or right you could fly over the tree line onto an adjacent fairway, making your approach shot much easier than if you actually hit it into the trees. Rain is in the forecast for the two days prior to the tournament and if they are heavy enough, the rough might not be able to get mown. This could make the rough very thick but this is all conjecture as of now. Check the Golf Channel or other media outlets to get an idea of how thick the rough will be. On approach shots golfers will see large undulating greens with runoffs and closely mown areas around the green. Bunkers and water will be in play once again on most approaches. The greens are bent grass and are average in speed with a stimpmeter rating of around 11.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.
Good Drive % (GD%)
Hitting fairways will be important and hitting greens when missing the fairway will be key as well since nearly half the tee shots hit don’t make it to the fairway. GD% takes both of these factors into account and I think it will be a good base to see which golfers you want to roster this week.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
Since there are twelve par 4s on the course I will be looking at P4 this week. Since 2008 22/30 golfers that finished Top 3 with recordable stats were inside the Top 90 in this stat for that specific year.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
Making birdies is always important but according to the trends it might actually be more important here than other courses. Since 2008 21/30 golfers that finished Top 3 were inside the Top 90 in this stat for that specific year.
Proximity from 150-175 yards (Prox150) AND Proximity from 175-200 yards (Prox175):
Hitting it close on these large greens is important from any distance but there have been more approach shots hit from these distances than any other since 2008. Nearly 50% of all approach shots will be coming from these two ranges so finding golfers who fair well in both could give you a leg up this week.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Dustin Johnson ($11,900):
Other than Spieth, DJ is by far the best golfer in the field. He has had numerous Top 10s this year but hasn’t been able to hold the trophy on Sunday, yet. This could be his week to pick up his first victory of 2016 as he has had success here in the past and has great stats for the course. He’s 8th in SG:T2G, 3rd in BoB%, 10th in P4, 37th in SG:P, and 9th in Prox150. His GD% is not great but he’ll be hitting it so far off the tee that he’ll have a short iron in his hands on almost all approach shots which will give him an advantage even if he is in the rough. He has four Top 10s in six events played a TPC Four Seasons since the course redesign. If a big name golfer wins this tournament this week I think it will be DJ and not Jordan Spieth. (GPP and cash)
Matt Kuchar ($10,500):
I honestly think Kuchar is the third best golfer in this tournament and with only a $10,500 price tag I think he is actually cheaper than he should be in a weaker field like this. He is my #1 ranked golfer overall in my model this week. He’s 19th in SG:T2G, 39th in BoB%, 34th in P4, 49th in GD%, 68th in SG:P, and 36th in Prox175. He is coming off a strong performance last week at The PLAYERS and has two Top 10s in his last three events played on Tour. Kuchar has also made his last seven cuts at TPC Four Seasons with three Top 15 finishes. He will be a staple in my cash lineup this week and a victory for him is not out of the question. (GPP and cash)
Brooks Koepka ($9,600):
Koepka comes in as my #1 ranked golfer this week when it comes to stats. He’s 45th in SG:T2G, 27th in BoB%, 22nd in P4, 16th in GD%, 65th in SG:P, 59th in Prox150, and 6th in Prox175. He has had an up and down season so far this year but still has three Top 10s. He finished 16th here last year and has the game to be an elite player. If it truly happens is anyone’s guess but I will be using him in quite a few GPP lineups this week. (GPP only)
Marc Leishman ($9,500):
Leishman made a lot of people happy last week by going -3 on his last six holes of round 2 to make the cut on the number. He faded a bit on the weekend but everyone did (except Ken Duke) because of the somewhat unfair playing conditions presented to the golfers on Saturday at The PLAYERS. He has had success at this course making 5/7 cuts and finishing inside the Top 12 in all five of his cuts made. Stat wise he is in my Top 10 this week. He’s 54th in SG:T2G, 23rd in BoB%, 24th in P4, 94th in GD% (still above average for the field), 14th in SG:P, and 77th in Prox150. He’s a little too volatile to use in cash games this week at his price but I like him in GPPs. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Charley Hoffman ($10,800)
Zach Johnson ($10,200)
Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)
Ryan Palmer ($8,900)
Ryan Palmer is from the Lone Star state and enjoys this course. He has made his last five cuts here with three Top 10 finishes. He has had a fairly consistent year so far with twelve made cuts in a row and seven Top 26 finishes in that span. He came in 4th a few weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open and looking at previous winners here, the majority of them have a Top 20 finish leading up to their win at TPC Four Seasons. His stats are good but not great for the course but I can look past that due to his current form and familiarity with the course. He is 3rd in par 5 scoring which could help him this week as golfers will need to score fairly well on the two par 5s to contend especially if they don’t play par 4s that well. (GPP and cash)
Scott Piercy ($8,000):
After an injury derailed a promising start to his career, Piercy seems to be back on track making 11/12 cuts this year with seven Top 25 finishes. He has had success at TPC Four Seasons in the past with three Top 26 finishes in his last three appearances including a 5th place finish in 2013. He has very good stats for the course and I like how he hits the ball long (26th in DD) with some semblance of accuracy off the tee as well (89th in DA). I like golfers like that a lot this week and Piercy is no exception. He also makes a ton of birdies and hits a lot of greens which should be helpful as well. (GPP and cash)
Colt Knost ($7,800):
Knost is probably playing some of the best golf of his career this year making 15/16 cuts with two recent Top 16 finishes including a 3rd place finish last week at The PLAYERS. His stats for the course are just above average but he avoids bogeys, is supremely accurate off the tee, has a great GD%, and is a great scrambler and putter. He finished 10th here last year and expect him to continue his good run this week. (GPP and cash)
Lucas Glover ($7,500):
Glover is far and away my favorite play in this price range this week. He comes in at #2 in my model when looking at just stats and he is my #3 ranked golfer overall this week, even above Jordan Spieth. I know this sounds crazy but let’s take a look at his key stats for the course. He’s 20th in SG:T2G, 77th in BoB%, 6th in P4, 5th in GD%, 16th in Prox150, and 17th in Prox175. He’s also #1 in GIR on Tour this year. I know stats don’t paint the whole picture but he has been playing really solid golf during his last few tournaments making 5 cuts in a row with a 8th place finish a couple weeks ago at Wells Fargo. His putting sucks but if he can find form in his flat stick for one week he can make some noise. Remember, he is a former Major Championship winner. I think the upside is there for him this week and he’ll be my highest owned golfer by far in this price range. I’m not sold on him for cash games because he has never played the course but I actually don’t mind if you decide to use him in those formats as well. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Danny Lee ($8,600)
Gary woodland ($8,500)
Keegan Bradley ($7,900)
Russell Henley ($7,800)
Jhonnathan Vegas ($7,100)
Low End Value Picks ($5400-$6900)
Alex Cejka ($6,800)
It’s a tough week to find golfers that I really love in this price range but Cejka definitely is one I can get on board with. A lot of the time when it comes to golfers in this price range I like to look at current form over stats and his form is solid. Cejka has made five of his last seven cuts on Tour with THREE Top 21 finishes including an 11th at the Puerto Rico Open and a 9th place finish last week at The PLAYERS. He also has solid stats for the course for his price this week which is a nice bonus. He’s 66th in SG:T2G, 25th in BoB%, 26th in P4, 82nd in GD%, 69th in SG:P, and 86th in Prox175. He has only missed one cut in five tries since the course redesign in ’08 and has a couple of Top 25s in that span as well. (GPP and cash)
Tim Wilkinson ($6,800):
Shockingly Wilkinson is my 14th ranked golfer overall this week. He has been having a good stretch on Tour making his last four cuts with three Top 30 finishes including an 11th place finish a couple of weeks ago at the Wells Fargo in Charlotte. He has spotty course history here making only two of five cuts since 2008 but in those two made cuts he posted a Top 25 finish. Stat wise he has an above average tee to green game, avoids bogeys, is great at P4, putts very well, and has elite Proximity stats as a whole. He also is the #1 ranked scrambler on Tour this year which should be helpful. I’ll be using a bunch of him in GPPs this week. (GPP only)
Chez Reavie ($6,600):
Reavie is my 7th ranked golfer when it comes to key stats for the course this week. He’s 23rd in SG:T2G, 30th in P4, 6th in GD%, 28th in Prox150, and 14th in Prox175. He was a DFS darling for a little while earlier in the year but has faded recently missing his last three cuts. This should keep his ownership very low and if he plays well it could make you some money. (GPP only)
Will Zalatoris ($5,400):
If you’re looking for a super sleeper play at minimum price, Zalatoris might be your guy. He is a sophomore at Wake Forest and is from Texas. As a youth he won the Texas State Amateur tournament and won a couple of Texas state titles in high school. College golfers have made some noise this year at minimum pricing on DraftKings. Curtis Reed made the cut at the Valero, Bobby Wyatt came in 4th at the Zurich Classic, and Bryson Dechambeau has been doing his thing on Tour as well. If you’re interested in making a Spieth/DJ lineup, having Zalatoris in your lineup might not be the worst idea.
Others to look at in this price range:
Spencer Levin ($6,700)
Andrew Loupe ($6,600)
Scott Pinckney ($6,300)
Mark Hubbard ($6,100)
Greg Owen ($5,900)
Tournament History
Download Tournament History, Salaries, etc.
That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I also host a web chat on Slurv.com every Wednesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. I will be posting a video with my favorite cash game plays on Slurv.com every week as well. Follow me on Twitter for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow us on Twitter for more player analysis this golf season!
Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
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