PGA Preview, The PLAYERS Championship – DraftKings

PGA Preview, The PLAYERS Championship – DraftKings

Introduction

The top golfers in the world head to Ponte Vedre, Florida for The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass. With a total purse of 10 million dollars, every golfer wants to come here to try and earn a healthy paycheck and test their skills on a difficult course. Another reason golfers like this course so much is because there is no specific type of golfer that consistently does well at TPC Sawgrass. Everyone from the longest bombers to the shortest hitters have a chance as you can see with some of the past winners here. Tim Clark, KJ Choi, Stephen Ames, and Fred Funk have all won here in the past 11 years. Paul Goydos (who?) actually has two Top 3 finishes here since 2008. In that same time span, big names like Stenson, Sergio, Mickleson, Tiger, and Fowler have won here as well. Like I said, EVERYONE has a chance. That’s what makes this tournament so great and why it can be very difficult to predict for DFS purposes. Names like Day, Spieth, Rose, Rory, and Mickleson have all missed cuts at TPC Sawgrass recently. There are so many dangers on this course and everyone can fall victim to this at some point during the week. Even though this tournament is tough to predict, there are some trends and stats that stick out and I’ll try to help guide you to DFS glory with the information I have.

Course Description

TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye designed par 72 course that plays around 7,215 yards, with four par 3s and four par 5s. Three of the par 5s are reachable by most and the par 5 9th hole can only be reached in two by the longest of hitters. Off the tee golfers will face narrow tree lined fairways with bunkers and water in play on almost all shots off the tee. There is A LOT of water on this course. Over 24 ACRES of water to be more exact. Like most Pete Dye designs, there are many different type of doglegs on quite a few holes. This will lead to players hitting less than driver on many tee shots. The fairways have a lot of mounds and undulation and can be very firm if the course is dry. Missing it in the rough on the right side can make the golfers approach shots even more difficult because of the “Stadium Mounds.” Everyone thinks that TPC Sawgrass is a Stadium Course because of the seating and atmosphere on the last three holes. While this is true, Pete Dye also created “Stadium Mounds” on a lot of holes so fans can get a better view of shots and he placed them on the right side of the hole so fans can see the golfers faces. If golfers miss right on their tee shots, they could be facing a baseball type swing on their approach shots. Since a lot of water is on the left side of greens, it makes these baseball type swings even more hair raising since the ball will be sitting on a draw/hook lie. On approach shots golfers will see very small and firm greens. Bunkers surround most greens and once again, A LOT of water will be surrounding them as well. The greens themselves are multi tiered, undulated, and tricky which is a very typical Pete Dye design. Since 1992 there have been more three putts on this course than any other non Major course on Tour. The course uses Bermudagrass on the greens and they are fast, with a stimpmeter rating of 12.5 and above. The outcome of the tournament will come down to the final three hole stretch, which is nerve racking but can be played under par if golfers can get over nerves and the intimidation factor. Hole 16 is a reachable par 5 with a lot of trouble around the green. Anything from a 3 to an 8 is definitely possible here. Then golfers move on to the iconic island green at 17, which in reality is usually one of the 6 easiest holes on the course but with the intimidation factor, it makes the hole play much harder in the final round if golfers are in contention. Finally golfers play the 18th which is a visual and physical test for all golfers. In other words, it’s hard. It’s a long par 4 with water down the entire left side. Since 2003 this hole has played 1724 strokes OVER PAR!!! The tournament can definitely be won or lost on these final three holes.

Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.

Ball Striking (BS):
Ball striking is a combination of the Total Driving stat and Greens in Regulation. A good combo of accuracy off the tee, a little length, and a lot of GIRs will be key in picking golfers for your lineups this week.

Par 3 Scoring (P3) and Par 4 Scoring (P4):
Golfers will still need to play well on Par 5s but unlike most courses, the trends say that better Par 3 and Par 4 scorers are more likely to succeed here at TPC Sawgrass. Since 2005 29/40 golfers that finished inside the Top 3 with recordable stats were 77th or better in P3 for the specific year they finished Top 3. 28/40 golfers that finished Top 3 were inside the Top 78 in P4 scoring for the year they finished Top 3.

Scrambling (Scr) w/ a focus on Sand Save % (SS%):
The greens are small and firm. They will be missed. How a golfer does in getting it up and down will be very important this week. Eight of the last ten winners at Sawgrass were inside the Top 60 in Scr the year they won. Also there are 93 bunkers on the course. Golfers will inevitably hit into a few of them this week, so finding good sand players will be something to look for as well. Six of the last seven winners here were inside the Top 35 in SS% for the year they won. Five of those seven winners were inside the Top 20 in SS% for the year they won.

Overall Proximity (Prox):
Since putting on these greens can be very difficult, hitting it close on approach shots will be the easiest way to avoid the dreaded three putt and as I stated in the Course Description, there have been more three putts on this course than any other non Major course on Tour since 1992. Since 2005 27/40 golfers that finished inside the Top 3 were ranked 75th or better in this stat for the respective year they finished Top 3.

High End Picks ($9000 and up)

Rory McIlroy ($11,700):
Rory said in an interview last week that he had only played 18 holes of golf since The Masters. The rust definitely showed as he struggled early but looked like he was rounding into form come Sunday with 8 birdies and a back door Top 5 finish. He has three consecutive Top 10s at TPC Sawgrass and he looks to have finally figured the course out after playing poorly his first few trips here. His price is not outrageous and you can still make solid teams in any format with him in your lineup. If he can keep his drives on the fairway, he can definitely win his first PLAYERS this week. (GPP and cash)

Rickie Fowler ($10,600)
Fowler is the defending champion at this event and his final round last year was one of the all time greatest final rounds of golf. If you haven’t seen it YouTube it. It really is well worth the watch. It is true that winners here have not performed well their next time out but I think it’s just a fluke and I’m ignoring it. Fowler comes in as my #1 ranked golfer overall this week. He seems to be in contention for the win every week he has played this year and his key stats for the course are sick. He’s 7th in SG:T2G, 1st in P4, 4th in BS, 19th in Scr, 46th in SS%, and 23rd in SG:P. His P3 and Prox stats aren’t the greatest but everyone saw how well he played the par 3s last year at Sawgrass and even though his overall Prox is not great, he’s 6th in Proximity from 50-125 yards. With his new found length he will be hitting quite a few approach shots from that range. I honestly think he can win this again. (GPP and cash)

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,700):
Matsuyama played poorly last week by his standards and still finished in a tie for 11th place. He has a couple of Top 25s here in his two starts and he has eight Top 17 finishes this year in his nine made cuts. I love him this week and he is my 2nd ranked golfer overall. His stats are impressive. He’s 5th in SG:T2G, 38th in P3, 15th in P4, 15th BS, and 34th in SG:P. His Scr and SS% stats worry me a bit but he’s 13th in GIR so he hopefully doesn’t have to do much chipping from around the greens this week. (GPP and cash)

Others to look at in this price range:
Justin Rose ($10,300)
Sergio Garcia ($9,900)

Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)

Matt Kuchar ($8,100):
Mr. Consistency missed the cut at Sawgrass last year but made the cut his previous six times including a victory in 2012. He has made 11/12 cuts this year with seven Top 25s. He’s 24th in SG:T2G, 79th in P3, 48th in P4, 33rd in Scr, 67th in SS%, 74th in SG:P, and 29th in Prox. I think he gets back on track at TPC Sawgrass with at least another Top 25. (GPP and cash)

Russell Knox ($7,600):
Fort Knox has been quietly enjoying his best season on Tour this year with seven Top 27s in nine made cuts (in 13 tournaments) including a 2nd place finish a few weeks ago at the RBC Heritage AND a win at the WGC event in November. He hasn’t missed a cut at TPC Sawgrass in two tries with a high finish of 17th last year. He actually comes in as my 7th ranked golfer overall and he’s ranked 5th in my key stats model. He’s 50th in SG:T2G, 20th in P3, 25th in P4, 11th in BS, 20th in Scr, and 24th in Prox. I also like that he’s 2nd in Bogey Avoidance this year. He’s not the best putter but if he can get his flat stick going he can contend for the victory. Winning a huge WGC event with a deep field late last year could help his confidence this week as well. (GPP and cash)

Marc Leishman ($7,300):
Leishman is my #1 golfer this week when just taking key stats into account. He’s 21st in SG:T2G, 9th in P3, 5th in P4, 36th in BS, 22nd in Scr, 60th in SS%, 25th in SG:P, and 83rd in Prox. He has made 8/11 cuts this year and hasn’t finished outside the Top 30 in any of those made cuts. He has also played well at TPC Sawgrass recently with four consecutive made cuts, three consecutive Top 25s, and a high finish of 8th in 2013. I think he is underpriced and I expect him to perform well here this week. (GPP and cash)

Russell Henley ($7,100):
Henley had a rough stretch of golf during February and March but seems to be regaining his form. He has made three of his last four cuts including a 5th place finish at the Shell Houston Open a month ago. He also has had fairly good recent results at TPC Sawgrass finishing inside the Top 25 the last two years. Shockingly he comes in as my 4th ranked golfer overall this week and 7th ranked golfer when just taking key stats into account. He’s 54th in SG:T2G, 63rd in P3, 6th in P4, 21st in BS, 32nd in Scr, 41st in SS%, 15th in SG:P, and 34th in Prox. I’m not going to use him in cash games just because he has barely made 60% of his cuts the last 12 months but I will definitely be rostering him in a couple of GPP lineups this week. (GPP only)

Others to look at in this price range:
Zach Johnson ($8,300)
Paul Casey ($7,900)
Kevin Na ($7,800)
Chris Kirk ($7,800)

Low End Value Picks ($5300-$6900)

Luke Donald ($6,900):
Donald, though nowhere near the player he was when he was the #1 golfer in the world, has been solid this year making eight of his last nine cuts with five Top 26s and and 2nd place finish a few weeks ago at the RBC Heritage. He has had success at TPC Sawgrass with nine made cuts in his last eleven tries including seven Top 26s and three Top 6 finishes. His stats for the course are well above average. He’s 56th in SG:T2G, 63rd in P3, 29th in P4, 8th in Scr, 57th in SS%, 77th in SG:P, and 57th in Prox. I expect him to make the cut and a Top 25 is not out of the question. (GPP and cash)

Jim Furyk ($6,900):
Furyk came back from injury last week and looked rusty, which was to be expected after a long layoff. He has a tournament under his belt and I didn’t see any lingering effects from his wrist surgery so hopefully he’s good to go. In his last ten appearances at TPC Sawgrass he has made eight cuts with six Top 28 finishes and three Top 5s. His game should be suited for the course and you’re getting a golfer who was ranked #3 in the world less than a year ago at a huge discount. (GPP only)

Charles Howell III ($6,700):
CH3 destroyed a whole bunch of lineups last week when he missed the cut and that’s one of the reasons I think I’ll be using him at The PLAYERS. He’ll be the lowest owned he has been all year and that will be a big bonus if he does well this week. Even with last week’s MC he has been having a brilliant season with 15/17 made cuts and ELEVEN Top 25 finishes. His track record at TPC Sawgrass is not great making him a GPP play only, but I think he has been playing the best golf of his career this year and I’m hoping it continues even at a course where he hasn’t had that much success. We have seen recently that golfers with awful course history can still be viable options with Jaime Lovemark finishing 2nd at the Zurich Open even though he had never made the cut there before. The key to his success at the Zurich was that he was playing some of the best golf of his career leading up to that tournament and he carried it over to a place he usually plays poorly at. Hopefully this fits the CH3 mold perfectly this week because stat wise, he’s solid. He’s 35th in SG:T2G, 38th in P3, 15th in P4, 63rd in BS, 21st in Scr, 61st in SS%, and 69th in SG:P. His overall Prox stat is not great but he is 52nd in Proximity from 50-125 and with his length he will be hitting a lot of approach shots from that distance. (GPP only)

David Hearn ($6,100):
Hearn has only made four of his last six cuts on Tour but finished 20th or better in three of those made cuts, so you know that the possible upside is there. He has made all four of his cuts at TPC Sawgrass with a high finish of 6th in 2014. He is my 20th ranked golfer overall and 25th ranked golfer when just looking at key stats. He’s 82nd in SG:T2G, 15th in P3, 65th in P4, 50th in BS, 55th in Scr, 88th in SG:P, and 2nd in Prox. His SS% stat is awful but since he usually hits it close on approach shots, maybe he can avoid the bunkers as much as possible. I’m not going to overload on him but I’ll have him sprinkled throughout a few GPP lineups this week. (GPP only)

Others to look at in this price range:
John Senden ($6,800)
Emiliano Grillo ($6,700)
Daniel Summerhays ($6,600)
William McGirt ($6,400)
Chesson Hadley ($6,100)

Tournament History

Download Tournament History, Salaries, etc.

That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I also host a web chat on Slurv.com every Wednesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. I will be posting a video with my favorite cash game plays on Slurv.com every week as well. Follow me on Twitter for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!

PGA Preview, Wells Fargo Championship – DraftKings

PGA Preview, Wells Fargo Championship – DraftKings

RickRunGood Video Preview

Course Description

The PGA Tour heads to Charlotte, North Carolina this week as golfers play the Wells Fargo Championship from Quail Hollow Golf Club. Quail Hollow is a 7,575 yard par 72 course with four par 3s and four par 5s. It is a lengthy course best known for its closing three hole stretch nicknamed The Green Mile. This is one of the toughest closing stretches on Tour and no lead is safe on Sunday going into 16, 17, and 18. The 16th hole is a 508 yard par 4, the 17th is a 221 yard par 3, and the 18th is a 493 yard par 4. That’s three very long holes and the nickname is quite appropriate. If golfers play those holes at even par, they deserve a pat on the back and might be holding the trophy at the end of the week. You really notice the length of the course when you see the yardages of where most approach shots are hit from. Since 2005 over 55% of all approaches have come from 175 yards or more. Off the tee golfers will see narrow tree lined fairways that are some of the hardest to hit on Tour with an occasional fairway bunker and water only on a few holes. Less than 50% of fairways have been hit by golfers since this tournament began here in the early 2000s but since the trees aren’t that bunched up and there aren’t too many bunkers or water off the tee, missing fairways won’t kill golfers chances this week. The rough is thick, so when golfers miss the fairway, hitting it long can be helpful since it is much easier to hit a shorter iron to the green out of thick rough.

Accuracy off the tee seems less important here as seen by JB Holmes winning in 2014 with only 26/56 fairways hit. I wouldn’t avoid shorter hitters all together though. If they have good GIR stats and can putt well, shorter hitters could be worth using. Another aspect off the tee for golfers to face is a lot of right to left doglegs, which could favor golfers who hit a natural draw. On approach shots golfers will be hitting into greens that are average in size with multi tiers and massive undulation. Bunkers surround some greens and water is in play on a couple of approach shots as well. After having some problems with the green’s upkeep the course switched to Bermudagrass greens a few years ago. These are very difficult greens to putt on. Over the years this course has consistently had the lowest make percentages in putts inside of ten feet. Even though I don’t mention it on my key stats, looking at good putters inside of ten feet might be a good play this week. The weather looks great in Charlotte for the tournament, which is wonderful news after the weather debacle we just witnessed at the Zurich Classic but it looks like it will be quite chilly early Thursday morning which could make the course play even longer for the unlucky ones in the AM/PM wave. As usual, check the forecast right before the tournament starts to see if a specific wave will have an advantage.

Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.

Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) which is a key stat almost every week.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
Quail Hollow is a very tough test for the golfers this week and on difficult courses I like looking at SG:T2G more than I would on other weeks. Since 2005 24/32 golfers with registered stats that finished in the Top 3 were inside the Top 54 in SG:T2G for that specific year. 29/32 golfers that finished Top 3 were inside the Top 75 in SG:T2G for that specific year as well.

Par 5 Scoring (P5) AND Par 4 Scoring (P4):
The par 5s are reachable in two for most golfers, so they will need to take advantage of the par 5s to contend. 22/32 golfers that finished in the Top 3 since 2005 were ranked inside the Top 40 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3. Playing par 5s well is important on most courses with lengthy/difficult par 4s but I was surprised to see how the trends showed that par 4 scoring was almost equally important. 22/32 golfers that finished Top 3 since 2005 were ranked inside the Top 48 in P4 for that specific year.

Driving Distance (DD):
The course is long. Hitting the ball far will be helpful. Not only will DD help golfers reach the par 5s in two, but distance will also help when golfers are facing the par 4s that are close to 500 yards long. 10 out of the 11 past winners at this event were inside the Top 65 in DD for that specific year.

Scrambling (SCR):
Since over 50% of tee shots miss the fairway, golfers could have a tough time landing on these tricky greens from the rough. Greens will be missed and how a golfer fares in getting it up and down will be important.

High End Picks ($9000 and up)

Rickie Fowler ($10,900)- GPP and cash
Justin Rose ($10,000)- GPP only
Patrick Reed ($9,700)- GPP and cash
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)- GPP and cash
JB Holmes ($9,100)- GPP and cash

Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)

Paul Casey ($8,900)- GPP only
Byeong Hun An ($8,600)- GPP only
Daniel Berger ($8,400)- GPP only
Charles Howell III ($8,100)- GPP and cash
Kevin Chappell ($7,900)- GPP and cash
Gary Woodland ($7,800)- GPP and cash
Patton Kizzire ($7,700)- GPP and cash
Patrick Rodgers ($7,700)- GPP only
Tony Finau ($7,600)- GPP only
Luke Donald ($7,300)- GPP only

Low End Value Picks ($5300-$6900)

Luke List ($6,900)- GPP only
Harold Varner III ($6,900)- GPP and cash
Will Wilcox ($6,600)- GPP only
Jhonnathan Vegas ($6,400)- GPP only
Lucas Glover ($6,300)- GPP and cash
Retief Goosen ($6,200)- GPP and cash
Brendon de Jonge ($5,900)- GPP only
Roberto Castro ($5,900)- GPP only
Davis Love III ($5,500)- GPP and cash
Vijay Singh ($5,300)- GPP only

Tournament History

Download Tournament History, Salaries, etc.

That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I will also be co-hosting a web chat on Slurv.com every Tuesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. You can also follow me on Twitter @KendoVT_DFS for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!

PGA Preview, Zurich Classic – DraftKings

PGA Preview, Zurich Classic – DraftKings

Course Description

The PGA Tour moves slightly east this week as golfers play The Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana in Avondale, 25 miles from Bourbon Street. This will be the 11th time this event has taken place at TPC Louisiana since 2005. TPC Louisiana is a 7,425 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. This Pete Dye designed course is routinely one of the easiest courses on Tour each year with winning scores ranging from -15 to -20. There are a lot of short par 4s and all the par 5s should be reachable in two by most golfers. Off the tee golfers will face fairways that are above average in width, with many of them being tree lined. Bunkers of all shapes and sizes including small pot bunkers and humongous fairway bunkers will be waiting for golfers who hit errant tee shots. Speaking of humongous bunkers, the fairway bunker on 15 is over 150 yards long. The rough is thick but not overbearing and water will be in play on eight holes. The greens are average in size and speed with a stimpmeter rating of around 11. The greens are undulated but less so than most Pete Dye courses. Again, golfers who miss the green will have to deal with bunkers and collection areas, like most Pete Dye courses. Bermudagrass over seeded with poa trivialis will be the grass used on the greens. These greens are some of the easiest on Tour to putt on. Over the years there have been less three putts here than most courses and the make rate inside 5-10 ft is higher than most other courses on Tour as well. This might be the week where you can simply ignore putting stats. Many poor putters have won here including Jason Dufner, Jerry Kelly, Nick Watney, Andres Romero, and Bubba Watson. The weather could play a factor as rain and a little bit of wind is in the forecast for this week. Another tidbit about the course is that there are a lot of first time winners here. Seven of the last eleven winners at the Zurich Open have been first timers. This makes sense since the field is usually weak and the course is so easy. Taking fliers on lesser known golfers without a victory might make you some money come Sunday.

Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.

Key Stats For The Course

Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
SG:T2G is an important stat every week but it looks like it should be more important than usual here at TPC Louisiana. Since the greens are so easy to putt on, I think success will come from those who hit the ball well from tee to green. Since the tournament moved here in 2005, 24/35 golfers the finished Top 3 have been inside the Top 78 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3.

Par 5 Scoring (P5):
Golfers will need to go low on the par 5s to have a shot at contending this week. All four par 5s should be reachable by most golfers as long as they hit it in the fairway. Since 2005 25/35 golfers that finished in the Top 3 were inside the Top 78 in this stat for that respective year.

Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
Unless the weather does some crazy things, this week should be a birdie fest. Golfers will probably have to birdie 25 or more holes to have a chance at contending this week.

Proximity from 200 yards + (Prox200):
According to @FGMetrics (give them a follow on Twitter, solid statistical info every week) almost 30% of all approach shots at TPC Louisiana have come from over 200 yards. This makes sense since all four par 3s are over 200 yards, there are a few long par 4s, and golfers will be going for it in two on a lot of par 5s. 22/35 golfers that finished in the Top 3 here since 2005 have finished inside the Top 78 in this stat for the respective year they finished Top 3.

***Due to personal time restraints, I will just be listing my favorite golfers this week with no write up. The article will be back to normal next week. I apologize about this and if you have questions about why I like or dislike certain golfers this week, just shoot me a message on Twitter @KendoVT_DFS.

High End Picks ($9000 and up)

Jason Day ($12,500)- GPP and cash
Justin Rose ($11,800)- GPP and cash
Billy Horschel ($10,300)- GPP and cash
Daniel Berger ($10,100)- GPP only
Smylie Kaufman ($9,500)- GPP only

Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)

Charles Howell III ($8,700)- GPP and cash
Cameron Tringale ($8,600)- Cash only
Patton Kizzire ($8,200)- GPP only
Ben Martin ($7,900)- GPP and cash
Boo Weekley ($7,800)- GPP only
Jaime Donaldson ($7,600)- GPP only
David Hearn ($7,500)- GPP and cash
Luke List ($7,400)- GPP and cash
Lucas Glover ($7,200)- GPP only
Chad Campbell ($7,200)- GPP only
Patrick Rodgers ($7,200)- GPP only
Whee Kim ($7,100)- GPP and cash

Low End Value Picks ($5500-$6900)

Robert Streb ($6,900)- GPP only
Jason Gore ($6,800)- GPP and cash
David Toms ($6,700)- GPP and cash
Jason Bohn ($6,700)- GPP only
DA Points ($6,600)- GPP only
Andrew Loupe ($6,400)- GPP only
Alex Cejka ($6,300)- GPP only
Tim Wilkinson ($6,000)- GPP and cash
DH Lee ($5,900)- GPP only

Tournament History

Download Tournament History, Salaries, etc.

That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I will also be co-hosting a web chat on Slurv.com every Tuesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. You can also follow me on Twitter @KendoVT_DFS for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!

PGA Preview, Valero Texas Open – DraftKings

PGA Preview, Valero Texas Open – DraftKings

Course Description

Golfers on the PGA Tour move to Texas this week to play the Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio. The Texas Open is one of the oldest tournaments on Tour but has only been playing at TPC San Antonio since 2010. Any course history before that should be ignored. TPC San Antonio is a 7400+ yard par 72 with four par threes and four par 5s and was designed by Greg Norman is 2009. Supposedly Norman was going through a divorce at the time of making this course and it some what shows in his layout. It is a very long and difficult course. The par 5s are especially long with most being close to 600 yards. Last year it was the second most difficult non major course on Tour.

Off the tee golfers will face narrow tree lined fairways with bunkers in play and water on three holes. “Native areas” will play a big factor on missed drives as Kevin Na famously showed with his 16 on number 9 a few years ago. These “native areas” consist of desert, brush, trees, and rocks. Golfers will need to avoid these areas or get lucky when they do hit into them to succeed this week. The rough is thicker than the last couple of tournaments played but it should not be too much of a hindrance. On approach shots golfers will see average size greens that have multi tiers and a lot of undulation. Like Augusta National, the edges around the greens are closely mowed so many approach shots that just miss will lead to tricky up and downs from different collection areas or bunkers.

The speed of the greens are average with a stimpmeter rating of around 11 and the grass used on the greens is Bermuda grass. The weather usually plays a factor here as high winds are the norm. Looking at the weather forecast as of now, it looks like there will be a lot of rain this week in San Antonio but not much wind. This could make the course play even longer than it already is because of the soft conditions. Make sure to check the forecast as the week moves on to see if there will be any advantages in AM/PM tee times the first two days. One last tidbit on the course. A lot of Australians tend to do well here. In interviews many of them say that TPC San Antonio reminds them of courses back in their home country. This makes sense as Greg Norman designed the course and windy conditions are usually the norm Down Under. Just something to think about while you’re picking your golfers this week.

Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.

Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.

Birdie or Better Percentage (BoB%):
Because of the difficulty of the course, bogeys are going to happen. There’s really no way to avoid them unless the weather conditions are pristine. Last year there were only THREE bogey free rounds all week. To counteract these bogeys, golfers will need to make plenty of birdies to contend. Looking at trends since 2010, BoB% is the number 1 correlating stat for golfers finishing in the Top 3. 24/36 that finished T3 or better were inside the Top 82 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3.

Par 4 Scoring (P4):
The par 5s are extremely long and even the bombers will have a tough time reaching them in two. This cancels out most of the advantage for golfers who usually play par 5s well. Looking at trends since 2010, it looks like good P4 stats are more important at TPC San Antonio. 26/34 golfers that finished T3 or better were inside the Top 82 for that respective year.

Driving Distance (DD):
If the weather forecast is correct, golfers are going to be looking at soggy soft conditions all week. This will make this long course play even longer. Golfers that hit it far should have a slight advantage. I know some experts will be looking more into Driving Accuracy than DD because of how tight the course is but if you look at the numbers from the Top 3 finishers since 2010 you will see that DD correlates more with a top finish than Driving Accuracy. The median DD stat ranking for golfers that finished in the Top 3 since 2010 is 83. The median Driving Accuracy stat ranking for golfers that finished Top 3 since 2010 is 101. I wouldn’t rule out short hitters as long as they have good proximity stats from 175 yards and up.

Green in Regulation From Off The Fairway (GIROTF):
Only about 55% of all tee shots at TPC San Antonio land on the fairway. This is a very low number. How a golfer does on his approach shots from places other than the short grass will be important this week since there will be a lot of missed tee shots.

***Due to personal time restraints, I will just be listing my favorite golfers for the next two weeks with no write up. I apologize about this and if you have questions about why I like or dislike certain golfers this week, just shoot me a message on Twitter.

High End Picks ($9000 and up)

Matt Kuchar ($10700)-GPP and cash
Brooks Koepka ($10400)-GPP only
Brandt Snedeker ($10300)-GPP only
JB Holmes ($10100)-GPP and cash
Bryson Dechambeau ($9800)-GPP and cash
Charley Hoffman ($9600)-GPP and cash
Jason Kokrak ($9300)-GPP only
Kevin Chappell ($9100)-GPP only

Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)

Brendan Steele ($8800)-GPP and cash
Ryan Palmer ($8500)-GPP and cash
Freddie Jacobson ($8100)-GPP and cash
Chez Reavie ($7700)-GPP only
Si Woo Kim ($7600)-GPP only
Aaron Baddeley ($7400)-GPP and cash
Patrick Rodgers ($7300)-GPP only
Jhonattan Vegas ($7100)-GPP only

Low End Value Picks ($5200-$6900)

Ernie Els ($6900)-GPP only
Lucas List ($6900)-GPP and cash
Johnson Wagner ($6800)- GPP only
John Senden ($6700)-GPP and cash
Matt Jones ($6600)-GPP only
Andrew Loupe ($6500)-GPP only
Seung Yul Noh ($6400)-GPP and cash
Cameron Percy ($6400)-GPP only
Bronson Burgoon ($6100)-GPP only
Ryan Ruffels ($5400)-GPP only

Tournament History

Download Tournament History, Salaries, etc.

That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I will also be co-hosting a web chat on Slurv.com every Tuesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. You can also follow me on Twitter for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!

PGA Preview, RBC Heritage – DraftKings

PGA Preview, RBC Heritage – DraftKings

Course Description

After an exciting Masters event last week golfers will move north a few hundred miles to play the RBC Heritage Classic from Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina. Harbour Town is a 7,100 yard par 71 with four par 3s and three par 5s. Off the tee golfers will have to deal with tight, tree lined fairways with thick woods, bunkers, and water being a problem for golfers who miss wildly off the tee. The fairways are tight but over 66% of fairways are hit during the tournament’s past (which is above average) meaning most golfers will be hitting less than driver to place their balls in the right location. This course is the definition of target golf. If golfers hit it on the wrong side of the fairway, they might have a blocked second shot because of all the overhanging trees that surround the fairway. On the other hand if they miss the fairway but hit it on the correct side and not in the woods, they will have easier approach shots than golfers who hit it on the fairway but on the wrong side. The rough is not too thick but it will make approach shots much tougher to the small greens.

The greens are some of the smallest on Tour but are only slightly undulated. They will be playing slow with a stimpmeter rating of around 11 and the grass on the greens is TifEagle Bermuda. Golfers will need to be accurate with their approaches not only because of the small size of the greens but also because of the obstacles around the green. There are bunkers around almost every hole and water will be a factor around a few greens as well. Another bit of trouble the golfers will face around the greens are over hanging trees. A couple of holes actually have trees right in front of the green on both sides, making it look almost like a field goal post. So on these holes, if a golfers misses a little left or right, the trees will knock the ball down and leave tough chip shots onto the small greens. Weather could also play a part this week because Harbour Town is a seaside course.

As of now it looks like there is rain in the forecast with a decent amount of wind as well. Check the weather closer to Thursday to see if the AM/PM or PM/AM wave will have an easier go of the course the first two days. One last note about the course, they shut down the course for a few months during the past year to get new turf on the greens and fairways. Usually when golf courses do this the greens tend to play firmer than usual for at least the first year. Keep an eye out on what golfers are saying about this as the week progresses. It could make these greens even harder to hit than they already are. Needless to say, accuracy trumps power on this course by a wide margin.

Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.

Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G), which are key stats every week.

Good Drive % (GD%) with a focus on Driving Accuracy (DA):
GD% is defined as “On Par 4 and Par 5’s, the number of fairways hit, + the # of Greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot. / by the number of par 4 and par 5’s played.” I think this is a good stat to focus on because hitting the fairways will be important but also how many greens you hit when not on the fairway is very important as well. This stat combines the two and I think it will make a good indicator of how well a golfer might do here.

Scrambling (Scr):
The greens are small. They will be missed. Getting GIRs might even be tougher this week with the new grass on the greens. How a golfer gets up and down from these misses will play a big part in determining success. In the last 11 years 28/38 golfers that finished Top 3 or better have been inside the Top 65 in this stat for that respective year.

Par 4 Scoring (P4):
There are 11 par 4s on this course which is more than usual. In the last 11 years 27/38 golfers that finished Top 3 or better have been inside the Top 55 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3.

Bogey Avoidance (BA):
The normal winning score at Harbour Town is around -10. This will not be a birdie fest. Avoiding big numbers will be key. 28/38 golfers that finished Top 3 or better the last 11 years were inside the Top 70 in this stat for that specific year.

Proximity from 150-175 (Prox150) and 175-200 (Prox175):
According to @fgmetrics on Twitter (you should give them a follow. Solid statistical info every week), 55% of all approach shots the last ten years have come from these two distances. Golfers who consistently hit it close from these distances will have a leg up on the field.

High End Picks ($9000 and up)

Jason Day ($12,500):
With this field, Day’s price seems very low to me. He is the #1 golfer in the world and can win at any time, including this week. His stats are good and he has finished in the Top 10 here in past. I know some people might worry if he will take this tournament seriously because of the amount of golf he has played lately and the fact that he didn’t perform as well as he could have at The Masters last week but to me Day doesn’t seem like the kind of golfer who will take a week off during a weaker tournament. If he is playing, he is trying to win. That’s the vibe I get from him. He is also sponsored by RBC so more than likely he doesn’t want to let them down by not making the weekend. I think he will be very high owned because he is by far the best golfer in the field so if you want to fade him, I have no problem with that, either. (GPP only).

Paul Casey ($10,800):
Casey played well last week at the Masters with a 4th place finish and has three consecutive Top 10s on Tour. His stats for the course are good and he hasn’t finished outside of the Top 22 in three starts at Harbour Town. With how strong his game has been the last year, I think a win for Casey is inevitable this year and it could come at this event with a weaker field. (GPP and cash)

Brandt Snedeker ($10,600):
Snedeker has been having a solid 2016 missing only one cut in eight events with four Top 10s. He also hasn’t finished worse than 36th in any of his seven made cuts in 2016. His stats for the course are very good. He’s 52nd in SG:T2G, 27th in SG:P, 15th in Scr, 5th in P4, and 14th in BA. His driving stats leave a little room to be desired but since he will have less than a driver on a lot of holes this week, I can look past that. He won this event in 2011 and has not missed a cut here in his last 5 tries. (GPP and cash)

Matt Kuchar ($10,300):
Kuchar is very consistent, always makes the cut, and has more Top 25s than anyone else on Tour since 2015. He’s 47th in SG:T2G, 36th in SG:P, 46th in GD%, 42nd in DA, 63rd in BA, and 60th in Prox150. He hasn’t missed a cut here in his last ten tries, with FIVE Top 15 finishes and a victory here a couple of years ago. As of now he looks like he will be a staple in my cash lineup this week. (GPP and cash)

Brendan Grace ($9,000):
While most people will be loading up on Matthew Fitzpatrick (who I like as well) I’m going to be putting a lot of GPP shares on Grace this week. He’s ranked 13th in the OWGR, has a solid tee to green game, plays par 4s well, avoids bogeys, is great out of the sand, and is accurate from 175-200 yards. I think he will be low owned because of his missed cut last week but he did finish 7th last year at his only other appearance at Harbour Town. (GPP only)

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That’s all folks! Be sure to follow us on Twitter for more player analysis this golf season!
Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.