Welcome back to DFSonDemand!
Tonight is going to be a very interesting slate because at first glance, DraftKings didn’t do a great job in preventing an all-Coors stack while allowing for a few decent arms to fit in lineups. It is going to be imperative to decide on whether or not you’re going to go with or against Coors tonight because a good number of players will be. With that said, I am here to help breakdown our pitching matchups and talk about some stacks. Lets dive in.
Note: Felix Hernandez has been scratched tonight!
Pitcher: Jon Lester ($10,000, -199, O/U 8.5)
Opponent: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are coming off being no-hit by Jake Arrieta a night ago and get another tall task with Jon Lester tonight. The issue that Lester could face tonight is that the Reds have been better against left-handed pitchers this year. In their first 170 plate appearances against lefties this season, they have a .360 team wOBA and an .830 OPS. The Reds team wOBA is tied for sixth in baseball, which could be somewhat of a challenge for Lester. He will take a park hit playing in Cincinnati as well. While Lester strikes out 25% of his batters, he is getting a Reds team that has just a 16% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season. The Reds are making soft-contact against left-handed pitchers just 13.5% of the time, which is the second-best rating in baseball behind the PADRES! For his career, Lester has been very balanced in his wOBA allowed to lefties and righties, so he doesn’t truly limit on side of the plate which means the Reds will roll out their regulars. I also get nervous that the Reds can run all over Lester. He is a huge Vegas favorite, but the total is 8.5, which somewhat makes me hesitant. I also think that he could see a higher ownership because of Arrieta’s success a night ago.
Pitcher: Gio Gonzalez ($9,100, -144, O/U 8)
Opponent: Minnesota Twins
The Washington Nationals get some interleeague play tonight against the Twins, who found their bats against the Brewers. Moving from Minnesota to Milwaukee, the Twins got a park boost, but will go into Nationals Park, which isn’t as hitter friendly. So far this season, Gonzalez is striking out 24.5% of opposing hitters, which could bode well for him as the Twins strike out just over 22% of the time against lefties. The Twins have a .305 team wOBA against lefties this season, but just a .092 ISO. That is far from impressive. Seven of the nine bats in the Twins lineup are right-handed. Despite that, this is a good matchup for Gio and he could still benefit from being a little wild as he generates swings outside of the zone on 27% of his pitches there. The Twins swing at pitches outside of the zone at that same rate. However, the Twins are one of the best teams at making contact against pitches outside of the zone at 64.6%. The Twins lose the DH tonight and don’t put scare me too much. With Felix Hernandez scratched, Gio gets a boost in the rankings for tonight. I think he is cash playable.
Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez ($7,200, -130, 8)
Opponent: Oakland Athletics
Sanchez has been a great surprise this season, and it isn’t because we didn’t expect results, but he has truly held his own each time he has stepped on the mound. Sanchez gets a huge park boost going from Toronto to Oakland where it seems like everything is playable. He will also be facing a lineup that just isn’t that great. To this point in the season, the Athletics are striking out just under 20% of the time against right-handed pitchers with a .285 wOBA. To this point, Sanchez is striking out 26.3% of his opponents. He gets the A’s, who are swinging at 29.1% of pitches outside of the zone and making contact on just 56%, which ranks 23rd in baseball. The A’s don’t strike a ton of fear in me and if you’re stacking Coors, you may need a cheaper pitcher to get those bats. I like Sanchez in both formats given the bigger park and some strikeout upside.
Pitcher: Nick Tropeano ($6,100, -125, 7.5)
We can also consider Nick Tropeano, who is a Vegas favorite over the Mariners tonight. Seattle will be traveling from Cleveland to play and it speaks volumes that the struggling Angels are favored over the Mariners. To this point in the season, Tropeano is striking out just over 19% of batters that he faces. The Mariners have a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers and chase pitches outside the zone 29% of the time, but have good contact rates on those swings. The biggest issue with Tropeano is the depth of his start as he had yet to go beyond six innings in a game. At $6,100 there is a good chance that he makes value, which makes him a good play tonight.
I guess we will start with Coors field, which is basically a sandbox. Everyone is going to be on this game and for good reason. There is a ton of value here and Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra down to $3.7K, which makes them both affordable. Even with the left-on-left matchup, they are both underpriced. Kazmir is a good pitcher to target here as he allows 40% fly balls and that isn’t a great thing at Coors. Kazmir is also allowing over 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched and that very well may regress, but I’m not picking Coors as the day for that to begin. Kazmir also getting hit around by both left and right handed bats, so that makes everyone viable. I think every Rockie is in play tonight with Carlos Gonzalez being the highest owned due to the depressed pricing by DraftKings. I do like Trevor Story as the foundation of a stack as much as I don’t like to spend up at shortstop. Everyone here will be high owned.
If we go to the other end of this game, the Dodgers go from Atlanta to Coors, which are polar opposites. Jonathan Gray showed flashes of being a top prospect at times last season, but Coors doesn’t help pitchers at all. He will have another tall task tonight going against a decent Dodgers team. The run total in this game is 11.5 and Adrian Gonzalez jumps out as the slugger to ignite this offense. His price does increase nearly $700 today at Coors, which isn’t too great. At shortstop, Corey Seager is going to be a good pivot off of Trevor Story. I think the most underrated bat on the Dodgers for this game will be Yasmani Grandal at $3.7K.
We can stay in the same division with a Giants stack. They get Cosart and the Marlins tonight. I am not particularly high on Cosart and think the Giants left-handed bats could get to him tonight. In fact, I think all Giants bats could as he has allowed a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. That higher wOBA to righties is consistent as he also allowed that in 2015. Just about every Giants bat in their projected starting lineup watches their wOBA and ISO go up against right-handed pitchers, including Hunter Pence, who will be in the middle of their lineup.
In cash games, I think Coors is the play tonight, but if you want to bet on Coors tanking, I think the Giants make a good stack. I would also consider the Washington Nationals, who face Kyle Gibson.
There are some weather issues facing some big plays in tonight’s games. Be on the watch for that going into the games.
If you have any questions, reach me @JFerrie23 on Twitter.
Best of luck!
Today we get a split slate with some elite pitching in the early slate, which will be my primary focus in the column. I am going to change the format up a little here, so give me some feedback on whether or not you like the new format! Next to the pitcher, I will list their DraftKings price, the Vegas line and the game total.
Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw ($13,600; -260 favorite, O/U 6.5)
Opponent: Atlanta Braves
Today the best pitcher in baseball gets a juicy matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who have hit well in their first two matchups this week. The Dodgers look to take game three here with Kershaw facing a very weak lineup. The Dodger ace has a 33% strikeout rate and will face a team striking out 20.5% of the time against lefties. Kershaw does get a team that chase quite a bit as the Braves have a 30.4% O-swing (outside the zone), while Kershaw draws swings on 34.4% of his pitches outside of the zone. The issue is the Braves fight off those pitcher quite a bit, as they lead MLB in connecting on pitches outside the zone at 67.4%. Now Kershaw is a different animal, averaging over 7 innings and 102 pitches per game, so depth isn’t an issue here. The Vegas total is set at 6.5 facing a very weak right-handed pitcher in Matt Wisler, so there is a chance for a shutout here. The wind is blowing out to center field today, but Kershaw is great at limiting home runs, so no true worry from me. In fact, the Braves has a .100 ISO and .278 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. Kershaw is safe in all formats and gets a plus-plus matchup.
Pitcher: Max Scherzer ($12,400; -170, O/U 7)
Opponent: Miami Marlins
Max Scherzer has been a little off to start the season, but that isn’t a reason to fade him today. The Marlins will be without Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of their order today, which gives Scherzer a big boost. As a team, the Marlins have just a 19% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers and will get Scherzer, who has a 30.3% strikeout rate. Similar to Kershaw, Scherzer generates a lot of swings on pitches outside of the zone and the Marlins swing at pitches outside the zone 28% of the time. On those swings outside the zone, they make contact 61% of the time. Their team OPS and wOBA both take significant hits against right-handed pitchers and that would probably take a dip without their best hitter in Stanton. Scherzer also gets park boost heading to Miami, so that will play in his favor. I don’t think the Vegas line truly reflects the win probability here with no Stanton. I think Scherzer has similar upside to Kershaw today, but I am still a little weary due to the slow start and some control issues. He is fine in all formats.
Pitcher: David Price ($11,600; -159; O/U 7.5)
Opponents: Tampa Bay Rays
David Price gets a chance to redeem himself at home today against the Rays, who will be running out eight right-handed bats. The Rays have been much better against left-handed pitchers than right this season. While their wOBA and OPS go up against lefties, so does their strikeout rate at 22%. Price comes into this matchup with a 26.2% strikeout rate, while getting opponents to chase on 34.4% of his pitches. The Rays are an aggressive team and chase 31.8% of pitches outside the zone, which is the highest on the early slate. Along with that, they connect on 58.1% of those pitches, which falls in the middle on the slate. The total makes me a little worried as well as the lower line, but Price will be going against Jake Odorizzi who is no slouch himself. The ball park and eight right-handed bats in their lineup worry me a little. The wind is blowing out at Fenway at nearly 8-10mph today, so that could carry a ball over the monster. Price does present upside on this slate, but Kershaw and Scherzer have much better matchups. I like Price, but don’t think I will be too in on him with Kershaw and Scherzer at the top. He is a good pivot off of those two, but I don’t think you’ll want to go away from the top two early.
Pitcher: Johnny Cueto ($10,100; -170, O/U 7.5)
Opponent: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Johnny Cueto show gets the Arizona Diamondbacks on the road, so the park already hurts the Arizona bats a little bit. Cueto has been pretty good this season with one poor outing against the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks are pretty balanced against left and right-handed bats, so no true worries there as you know what you should get. They are striking out some more against lefties than righties, but just one percent difference. Cueto has a 20.5% strikeout rate himself, so there is some upside for strikeouts. Cueto also gets a good number of swings on pitches outside of the zone at 35.2%, which is the second-highest to Kershaw on the slate. The D’Backs chase those pitches 29.3% of the time with a 55.8% contact rate, which is the third lowest on the slate. The total is 7.5 because these offenses are both good, but the Vegas line heavily favors Cueto here. He usually is good for six to seven innings and 100 pitches, so the depth in safe, too. He is more of a tournament play for me, but I do like the matchup.
Pitcher: Nathan Karns ($6,900; -110, O/U 8.5)
Opponent: Cleveland Indians
As my sneaky pitcher early, I think Nathan Karns draws an interesting matchup. I would say that you need to be weary of the rain in the forecast, but he does have some upside at his $6,900 price tag. Karns has a 23.2% strikeout rate and goes up against the Indians, who are striking out in 19% of their at bats against righties. Karns is drawing swings outside the zone on 29% of his pitches and the Indians case at a similar rate. Along with that, they make contact on 59% of those swings, which falls in the middle today. He is usually good for five to six innings and 90-95 pitches, so depth isn’t phenomenal, but his price tag isn’t unreal either. Karns has watched his K-rate go up on the road during his career, so there could be some more of that today. The current 8.5 run total isn’t pretty, but that is why he is a tournament option. In their six home games, the Indians also have a lower team OPS. I know the sample size isn’t ideal, but it could hold. If you play Karns in tournaments, hope the rain holds, too!
The Giants are one of my early stacks today and it is because I don’t trust Shelby Miller. First off, Miller left his last start due to an injury, so we will see if he can make it through this one. Miller allowed hard contact on 32.8% of balls in play to left-handed hitters of the past year, so that puts some big Giants’ bats in great spots. Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford both have hard-hit rates greater than 30% against right-handed pitchers to go along with .200-plus ISO’s and over a .340 wOBA. They are great plays against Miller. Miller also allowed 18 stolen bases last year, so Denard Span and Angel Pagan could be in spots to run here. The total is set a 7.5 and Miller hasn’t been good this season. I’d start this stack with Belt and Crawford and work from there.
The Twins are another stack that I am interested in today because of Taylor Jungmann. In the last year, Jungmann has allowed hard contact to righties 31% of the time on balls in play. The Twins get a park boost in Milwaukee today, so that will help, too. Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier are two top of the lineup options for the Twins in this game. I also like Joe Mauer and Oswaldo Arcia, who get the left on right matchup and both have 30% hard-hit rates against right-handed pitchers. In this mix, I really like Eduardo Nunez, who should have a good shot to get a hit and swipe a base against Jungmann, who allowed 18 stolen bases last year.
The Mariners are another stack that interests me, but the weather needs to hold up. Cody Anderson isn’t going to miss too many bats with his 12.3% strikeout rate. Anderson also allowed hard contact to left-handed hitters on 32.9% of balls in play. Robinson Cano, Seth Smith, Adam Lind and Kyle Seager all had hard-hit rates greater than 30% against right-handed pitchers and have the left on right match-up today. Nelson Cruz is also in that list, but Anderson held righties to a 24.5% hard contact rate. I think the left-handed stack works really well if the weather holds up in Cleveland.
Home run of the day (early)
If you have any questions, please reach out to me @JFerrie23 on Twitter.
Best of luck!
Today we have an interesting slate with a few top-tier pitching options and some pretty high totals on the board. Let’s dive in.
At the top, we go with Madison Bumgarner ($11,400) against the Diamondbacks. We have all watched Bumgarner in the early going this season, and it has not been pretty at all. He has yet to go more than six innings in a game this season, so he hasn’t been terribly efficient. Two of Bumgarner’s three starts have come on the road, where has pitched worse the last few years. Last year at home Bumgarner allowed a .241 wOBA to opponents while allowing a .296 on the road. For his career, he owns a .279 wOBA at home and .291 on the road with nearly a half-run difference in ERA. He gets a park boost at home while the D’Backs take a hit playing outside of Chase Field. He will be facing Zack Greinke, who has also been off to a slow start, but the win is no lock as the Giants are just a -134 favorite. Bumgarner also watches his strikeout rate go up a tick when pitching at home. In their 327 plate appearances outside of Chase Field, the Diamondbacks have a .323 wOBA and a 98 wRC+ so nothing too scary there. I believe that this is a decent spot for Bumgarner, who I believe will see a depressed ownership due to his recent performance and a few cheaper arms on the slate.
As mentioned above, Bumgarner will face Zack Greinke ($10,300) tonight. The Giants are the favorite, but the run total is set at just 6.5 runs, which bodes well for Greinke. So far this season the Giants have posted a .319 wOBA against both left and right handed pitchers, so they hold their own against all. Greinke gets a park boost going to AT&T tonight, so that is another plus. This season the Giants are striking out in just 18.5% of their at bats against right-handed pitching, so their bat to ball skills as a team may prevent some strikeout upside. Greinke has been a notorious groundball pitcher throughout his career, which also plays well in San Francisco. His price is $1,100 cheaper than Bumgarner, so he allows for some flexibility when constructing your lineups. We do have to remember that Greinke was unreal last year and could very well get back to that point. Opponents currently have a .333 BABIP against Greinke, who has a career BABIP against of just .298, so expect some regression from opponents. While I slightly favor Bumgarner in this matchup, Greinke gets a good park boost and also may go a little under owned because of the recent performance and Giant offense.
Chris Archer ($8,500) is another interesting arm at a depressed price tonight. This is one of my favorite tournament spots because of the 10+ strikeout upside that we have seen from Archer. Last night, Drew Smyly dominated the Sox offense, which has a .319 wOBA and .735 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Archer has a 29% strikeout rate and could present some issues for this Boston lineup. The biggest concern that I have with Archer is the high total in this game. Archer also isn’t favored which throws me off a little bit. I do think he presents some big upside, but he hasn’t been terribly efficient this season. Archer is strictly tournaments for me tonight.
How about the ageless Bartolo Colon? The big man is going to show up every fifth day and throw 90% fastballs while still being somewhat respectable as a starter. The Phillies offense has been dreadful this year, posting a .296 wOBA against right-handed pitchers to go along with their .678 OPS. That is just brutal. Colon typically doesn’t carry much strikeout upside, but the Phillies are striking out 21% of the time against right-handed pitchers this season. Colon is a -153 favorite in a game with an 8.5 run total—which isn’t ideal. He is going to cost you $5,500 against one of the worst offenses in baseball. I think he is a pretty good value in tournaments because of this Phillies offense.
I believe the most popular stack of the day is going to be the Mets. The Mets have absolutely dominated the Phillies in this series, hitting six home runs last night in a route. Tonight the Mets will face Jeremy Hellickson, who has outperformed what everyone pictured coming into this season. Hellickson has allowed a .337 wOBA to right-handed hitters and .321 to left-handed hitters. Michael Conforto jumps back out as a prime play today at $3,400. Conforto is sporting a 43.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers while Hellickson is allowing a 34.4% hard-hit rate to left-handed hitters. In fact, six Mets are sporting a hard-hit rate over 35% against right-handed pitchers this season. The Mets are favored in a game with an 8.5 total, so this is a prime spot. They will be popular, but I think that Conforto and Duda stand out as prime options in the middle of the Mets lineup.
How about stacking the Orioles today at home? That sounds like a good idea against R.A Dickey, who will be throwing a knuckleball against the wind. The winds in Baltimore are blowing out around 8-10 mph today, which could hold that knuckleball in the air a little longer than normal or cause issues with movement. In his 9.2 innings on the road this season, Dickey has allowed a .372 wOBA. Last season, Dickey struggled on the road with a .346 wOBA. Chris Davis is an elite power bat who has a 44.8% hard-hit rate against right handed pitchers this season. Along with that, he is sporting a .360 ISO. I also think that Jonathan Schoop is in a good spot at second base tonight, but he will be hitting a little lower in the order. The total in this game is set at 9 and I imagine that more people roster Blue Jay bats than Baltimore. I think the Orioles are in a really good spot tonight.
The Texas Rangers are in a good spot tonight against Doug Fister, who has really been a shell of himself in the last year and change. Fister has allowed a .358 to righties and .335 to lefties over the past year, which leaves some of these Ranger bats in prime spots. I believe that Mitch Moreland is a great play in tournaments tonight because he has a 36.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers to go along with his .235 ISO. Rougned Odor is also in a good spot, but it will be interesting to see where he hits in the lineup. He is $4,000, so if he is hitting in the bottom-third of the order, I may pass. I don’t mind Nomar Mazara at $3,200 either. He is super talented and has the platoon on Fister.
Sneaky stack of the day will be the Tigers against Ian Kennedy. To start the season, Kennedy has been phenomenal, but that luck has to run out eventually. We saw it with Velasquez yesterday (even though it wasn’t all on him), and I do think we could see it again today. The wind is blowing out at 10+mph in Kansas City and Kennedy has a 38.7% fly ball rate. In a tournament, I am fine with J.D Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton. These guys all have over a .330 wOBA and a 34% hard-hit rate against righties. All except Cabrera (surprising) have a .200 ISO against righties. The Tigers could be in for a low ownership night and get to Kennedy, who is due to regress.
Home run(s) of the night
Mitch Moreland—Low strikeout pitcher is a plus-park. Very good hard-hit rate against right-handed pitcher.
Oswaldo Arcia—Miller park is a great run scoring environment and Nelson struggles against left-handed bats.
If you have any questions, you can reach me on Twitter.
Today we have a large 13 game night slate with some great pitching options at affordable pricing. Along with that, there are some great hitting options to fill out our lineups. Let’s dive in.
At the top, we will start with Stephen Strasburg ($11,000) against the Marlins, who rank in the top-half of baseball in OPS. Along with that, the Marlins rank fourth in baseball in OBP through the first few weeks of the season. They’ll get on of their tougher match-ups against Strasburg, who owns a 28.6% strikeout rate on the road. The Marlins are striking out in 22% of their at bats against right-handed pitchers this season. Strasburg will get a park boost going to Miami, where he is a -146 favorite. But even that seems somewhat low going against Adam Conley, who is a decent pitcher, but not in the class of Strasburg. The total in this game is set at 7.5, which isn’t too flattering when combined with that Vegas line. I’m not too high on using past data, but Strasburg went 1-2 with a 4.95 ERA in three starts against Miami a season ago. Even in those down outings, he had 21 strikeouts in 20 innings. I think he will carry a higher ownership due to the pricing of the other pitchers on this slate.
Jaime Garcia ($9,200) gets a tough match-up against the Cubs in St. Louis tonight. Garcia is coming off his best outing in years, throwing a complete game shutout with 13 strikeouts. That game against the Brewers, and the Cubs are a much better offensive team. The Cubs as a team have been pretty good against left-handed pitchers this season, posting just an 18.2% strikeout rate. While their team strikeout rate is low, so is their OPS (.640) and wOBA (.292). Along with that, the Cubs have just an 81 wRC+ in 121 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. This is a good spot for Garcia, even if the strikeout rate is lower for the Cubs. At home, Jaime Garcia has been much better, including holding opponents to a .225 wOBA at home last season. I believe that the Cubs are going to strikeout much more than they currently are this season, so I do buy into the strikeout upside not being present. I think Garcia is a great tournament play because people will shy off due to the Cubs offensive capabilities.
There will be a good number of people putting Vincent Velasquez ($9,600) into their lineups tonight and for good reason. Velasquez has been dominant to start this season and gets a Mets team that hasn’t lived up to their hype. They didn’t really get to Eickhoff last night and currently rank 19th in OPS in baseball. The Mets also have the ninth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching early in the season at 24.7%. To go along with the higher strikeout rate, they have a .676 OPS and .300 wOBA against righties. The downside for Velasquez here is that the Mets have been significantly better on the road with an .824 OPS. I am very high on Velasquez and think he puts up another game, but the ownership is going to be high due to his recent performance.
Francisco Liriano ($9,800) is also in an interesting spot tonight on the road against the Padres. As we all know, the Padres have been a very bad team this season. The Padres .610 OPS is the third worst in baseball this season. The Padres currently have a 22% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. The Padres have actually been better against lefties with a .720 OPS and .317 wOBA. At home the Padres have been dreadful, striking out in 26.2% of their plate appearances and posting just a .207 wOBA. Francisco Liriano finished last year with a 26.5% strikeout rate, but as always, there is the risk that he is wild. I do believe that he is in a good spot against a weak lineup and could end up with over a strikeout per inning. Liriano was also better on the road last season. He comes into tonight’s game as a -143 favorite with a 7 run total.
Will the real Matt Shoemaker please stand up? Seriously. Matt Shoemaker gets to face the Chicago White Sox tonight, who own the LOWEST OPS in baseball. Yes, a lineup with two guys who should hit 30+ home runs are dead last in OPS. If you look at the entire lineup, they just aren’t that good. The 8.5 run total in this game is one of the highest today, but the White Sox offense has been worse than the Padres. Yes, that bad. The White Sox are currently striking out in 19.6% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. Their .265 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers is the third worst in baseball. To add onto that, the White Sox currently have a .099 ISO against right-handed pitchers. That is just dreadful. I do think the White Sox break out soon, but at $5,300, I am going to look into Shoemaker in tournaments.
How about a stack with the Kansas City Royals? The total on this game tonight is eight, which falls in the middle for the overall slate. Shane Greene finished last season with a .425 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Greene was good in his last start against the Pirates, but he is the lowest priced pitcher on the slate for a reason. Along with the high wOBA’s allowed, Greene isn’t a strikeout pitcher and the Royals aren’t a strikeout team, so there will be balls in play. Balls in play give us opportunity to points fantasy points on the board. Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are all good options in this game, which I believe will be under owned.
The Nationals have the highest wOBA in baseball against left-handed pitchers and get Adam Conley in Miami tonight. Prior to being held down by Jose Fernandez a night ago, the Nationals are back in a good spot tonight. Earlier this season, the Nationals got to Conley early in a game prior to rain setting in. Ryan Zimmerman has been known to dominate left-handed pitching and will be in the middle of the Nationals order tonight. Jayson Werth in another National who finished last season with an ISO greater than .200 against left-handed pitchers. Obviously Harper is going to be in play because of how great he is overall, but not totally sure he is my favorite high priced play today.
Julio Teheran is off to a pretty dreadful start this season and get left-handed lineup in the Dodgers. Teheran allowed a .386 wOBA to left-handed batters a season ago and will more than likely see a lineup that features five or more. That puts the Dodgers in a decent spot despite playing at Turner, which has actually been a decent run environment this season (small sample, yes). Adrian Gonzalez is down to $3,700 on DraftKings and has always hit right-handed pitchers well, so he could be a good play in a tournament. I will have to wait to see the full lineup, but Chase Utley, Carl Crawford and Yasmani Grandal could be good plays against the right-handed Teheran.
If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter.
We get just seven games today with a mixture of pitching, which could lead toward some higher scoring games. We get two aces at the top and then finding our second pitcher is going to be extremely important. Let’s dive in.
At the top we get Noah Syndergaard ($12,100) who has been simply incredible to start his 2016 campaign. Tonight he will face the Phillies, who have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. In each of his two outings this season, Syndergaard has reached 33 DraftKings points. The Phillies lineup allows for the opportunity to get to that point yet again. So far the Phillies are striking out in 21% of their at bats against right-handed pitchers, so this could be a good spot for Syndergaard. The total in this game is just seven with the Mets being a -175 favorite. At the top, Syndergaard is a very safe play against a dreadful Phillies lineup. In cash, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a ridiculous ownership on him.
If we don’t go with Syndergaard, we can expect Jose Fernandez to be the next option at $11,300 against the Nationals. The Nationals looked pretty good over the past weekend in Philly, but will get the electric Fernandez at home, where he has dominated. For his career, Fernandez has allowed a .221 wOBA at home while allowing a .282 wOBA on the road. Now both are below league average, but it does show how dominant he is at home. The Marlins are a -150 favorite in this game, so Vegas likes their odds for the win. Along with that, Fernandez has shown massive strikeout upside and the Nationals have a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. You will save $800 if you go down to Fernandez, and it may be wise given the ridiculous ownership that I picture with Syndergaard. The total is low, the park factor plays well for Fernandez and the strikeout upside in there. I am fine with Fernandez in all formats and think he will be the lower owned of the two aces.
As we move on with our roster building, we will run into Carlos Rodon, who faces the Angels at home tonight. The Angels lineup hasn’t been that great this season and even Mike Trout is off to a slow start. Rodon has been stellar through his first two starts, striking out 12 batters in his first 13 innings. In both of his games, he has reached at least 19 DraftKings points. The Angels have not been a big strikeout team so far this season, but Rodon could strike out 10 at any moment. My biggest concern with Rodon is high wOBA split to right-handed hitters. Last year he allowed a .350 wOBA to righties and .247 to lefties. The Angels offense also gets a park upgrade going from L.A to Chicago. I think Rodon is more of a tournament play, but he has significant strikeout upside and gets a weaker lineup in the Angels.
At the bottom today, there are a few options that are somewhat interesting, but don’t have a favorite yet. Once lineups come out, I will update, but a lot will depend on who they have to face. It isn’t pretty at the bottom today.
The Reds are an early favorite for my top stack today as they get Jordan Lyles, who has posted negative DraftKings points in his first two starts this season. Last season he allowed a .353 wOBA to lefties in a park that favors left-handed bats. That makes Joey Votto an elite play for me tonight. Along with Votto, I think Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce could be good options. I am not sure Hamilton will draw the start here, though. I think Votto is cash safe with this being the highest total on the board and getting a nice match up against a weak right-handed pitcher.
Stacking the Giants/D’Backs game makes a lot of sense to me with the youth of Bradley and Jake Peavy not being good anymore. For the D’Backs, Goldschmidt and David Peralta are the top of the options. The D’Backs lineup may also feature Jake Lamb and Socrates Brito, who are fine in a stack. On the Giants end, if you don’t trust Bradley, all bats are in play. In his brief stint last year, Bradley actually struggled with right-handed hitters more than left-handed. It looks like there is a slight wind out to center, which may help the bats a little. Overall, I think more people will be in on the Reds bats than Giants, but they are both in decent spots.
I believe that the White Sox could be in an interesting spot for their power bats. Hector Santiago is a fly ball pitcher and that could bode well for Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier and Avisail Garcia in the middle of the order. On the road, Santiago watches his strikeout rate drop below 20%, so the strikeouts don’t concern me too much.Right-handed hitters posted a .323 wOBA against Santiago last season so they are in a good spot here. I think that this stack would go under owned in a match up that could see a few balls in the gaps and over the fence.
Home run of the day
As lineups get released, I will tweet out my top plays and value!