by EPattersonFS | Nov 15, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone had a successful week in Mexico. My picks last week weren’t as hot as the Mexican sun, but at least they weren’t as s***ty as Chesson Hadley’s weekend.
We are winding down in the 2017 calendar year for golf, so let’s enjoy our last no cut event of the season – the RSM Classic. The touring pros are heading to Sea Island Golf Club on the east coast of Georgia. This event will be played on two different courses on Thursday and Friday. They golfers will rotate between the Seaside and Plantation course, before heading back to the Seaside course for the weekend. Both courses play very similar, ending up just over 7,000 yards in length. The golfers who typically have had great success at this event have been the accuracy, plotter type who tend to hit a lot of fairways and greens. Distance will not be required this week, and many golfers will not need to use a driver all weekend. The courses main defence is wind due to its proximity to the ocean. Scores over the past few years have ranged from -14 to -22 since the first event was played here in 2010.
Stats for the Week
SG-Approach – 30%
Birdie or Better Gained – 25%
SG- Off the Tee – 10%
Par 4 400-450 – 10%
SG- Putting – 10%
Fairways Gained – 10%
SG- Around the Green – 5%
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Matt Kuchar – $11,100
The fact that Matt Kuchar isn’t the most expensive golfer in this field is value in itself. Yes, Kisner has won here before, but there are very few golfers in the game as consistent as Kuch. His accuracy should play perfect at Sea Island. In my weighted stat model, he ranks 1st when looking at all recorded rounds, emphasizing his fit for the course. His lack of recent play doesn’t concern me. Kuch’s game is so steady that some time off is likely beneficial.
Charles Howell – $9,500
There are few golfers that like Sea Island more than Charles Howell III. In his past five trips here, he has made the cut each time and has three top 13 finishes. Howell has and never will be considered a winner but he has an excellent chance at a top 10 every week. His last three results are all top 20s and are trending in the right direction capped by his T4 last week at the OHL. $9,500 is a perfect price to start your cash game lineups.
J.J. Spaun – $9,000
Last week was a big test for Spaun. His collapse at the Shriners was well documented, so seeing how he performed at the OHL would be telling of his mental game. He came T14 last week gaining seven shots on the field – a very good result given the circumstances. Now that the Shriners let down is well in the past, Spaun heads to an event that should fit his game. He ranks 3rd in my stat model over the past 12 rounds, crushing it on approach shots, birdie or better and on Par 4s between 400-450. This is the last event golfers like Spaun will have a chance to win before the calendar turns, so look for that extra motivation vault a lot of golfers on the cusp to the top of the board.
J.T. Poston – $7,200
Somehow J.T. Poston is only $7,200 and that must be taken advantage of. Like Spaun, Poston has played back-to-back really solid tournaments and finds himself in a must win situation. Poston is one of many golfers who calls Sea Island Golf Club home, so look for that extra level of comfort to work in his advantage. Over his past 12 rounds, Poston has been great off the tee, making birdies on Par 4s and solid around the green. It will take all that again for Poston to make a run before the 2017 season comes to a close.
Seamus Power – $6,900
Seamus Power is my favourite play in the sub $7K range. He is similar to Poston in the fact that he too calls Sea Island his home course, despite being from Ireland. That Irish background will also help Power here as the windy conditions are something he is very use to playing in. Power did miss the cut last week at the OHL Classic by two shots, which is an expected result on occasion for a golfer of this caliber. It was only three tournaments ago where Power gained 6.9 shots on the field in approach shots. If that form returns a top 10 is well within reach.
RSM Classic Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Zach Johnson – $9,100
Taking a quick peek at FanShareSports, Zach Johnson leaps off the page as a $9K+ golfer who won’t garner much attention this week. He only has eight tags this week despite his ideal fit for the course. He ranks 1st in the field from the key Par 4 range of 400-450. This course has nine Par 4s that fall in that range giving ZJ an edge on half of the holes. He’s played real solid in his last two starts and this is a field that he can easily contend in.
Bud Cauley $8,500
Bud Cauley has fallen off the radar because of his time off and poor performances in Asia. Everyone was on him to being the fall swing season because he was one of those guys you could see winning a weaker field event. Being $8,500 this week will keep his ownership down even though he is a fit for the course. At the end of the 2017 season he showed that he could be one of the better ball strikers on tour. Take a gamble on one of the best low owned-high upside plays on the board.
Beau Hossler – $8,000
Hossler has been very impressive this fall and what better way to cap it off than with a win at the RSM. He came back down to earth last week at the OHL Classic, but before that had two top 10s. He has shown consistency tee to green as well as the ability to roll the rock on the green. Beau only has five tags on FanShareSports compared to Scott Brown’s 13 priced the exact same. I have a strong feeling Beau finishes the fall season strong.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Brian Harman – $11,000
Brian Harman is $11,000 and it’s a hard pass for me. It’s not necessarily the price that scares me – it’s a terrible field and he is one of the better golfers. But I don’t see a big difference between him and a few guys priced $2,000 cheaper, say Zach Johnson for example. There will be a lot of talk about Harman this week because he is from the area, but it looks like that is a detriment to him for this event in the past. Harman has missed the last two cuts here and only has one top 10 in five years.
Brandt Snedeker – $8,600
Usually this would be a great spot to jump on Snedeker because of the weak field and very affordable price. However, he hasn’t played since the Travelers (end of June) and that is very concerning. I’m sure he has been hitting the ball fine at the range and feels healthy, however there should be hesitation when rostering a guy who hasn’t played competitive golf in five months. I’ll wait til 2018 before Sneds is worth consideration.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Chesson Hadley – $10,200
The case of the Mexican runs claimed another victim. After battling to make the cut on Friday, Hadley must have had one too many burritos Friday night in celebration and there just were not enough outhouses on the course to play a full 18. Hopefully he got his imodium in him and is ready to rock for the RSM Classic. He has been playing lights out this fall and there is no reason to believe it will not continue.
Nick Taylor – $7,600
Taylor was one of many chalk plays that burned people at the OHL Classic. His solid form entering the week was intriguing and he was only $7,400. Now Taylor gets a price bump of $200 off a missed cut, and his tags have decreased from 14 to two on FanShareSports. The potential for back-to-back missed cuts is there, but his ownership will be non-existent in GPPs and is definitely worth a look.
Aaron Wise – $7,500
I have a weird gut feeling that Aaron Wise is going to contend this week. He has been hyped up all fall series as a potential first time winner – and has played decent up until last week. As mentioned prior, this is the last shot these tour rookies have to win before for the full season begins. People are bored of rostering/touting Wise so while everyone is looking elsewhere, this is a perfect time to capitalize on recency bias.
Thanks for reading the RSM Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!
by EPattersonFS | Nov 8, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! CANTLAY GETS IT DONE!!! I hope everyone was able to reap the rewards of his first career win – it was easy to pull for him considering the obstacles he has had to overcome. Let’s turn the page and try to make it back-to-back!
The PGA Tour heads south of the border, to Playa Del Carmen Mexico for the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. The event will be played at the El Camaleon Golf Club, which has played host to this event since 2007. It is a short course, extremely short, coming in at just under 7,000 yards. That is tiny for a Par 71. El Camaleon’s main defence is the wind, and gusts this week in Playa Del Carmen are not suppose to be bad. Expect some low scores. Accuracy off the tee will be important, but so will approach shots just like every other week. Par 5 scoring will also be very important as it has made up about half of the winners scoring from the last few years.
Stats for the Week
SG-Approach – 30%
Birdie or Better Gained – 30%
SG-Par 5 – 15%
Good Drives Gained – 15%
Par 4 400-500 – 10%
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Chesson Hadley – $9,900
Last week, Chesson Hadley tried to ruin my weekend as I had 0% exposure to him. I am not making that mistake again. Hadley is not your typical Web.com Tour grad, as he has been on the PGA Tour before and won the 2014 Puerto Rico Open. In his last six events entering the OHL Classic, Hadley has a win and four top 5s. Three of those top fives were his last three PGA Tour starts. He has the best form entering the event and is due to finally break into the winner’s circle again. It is not even close in terms of key stats over the past 12 rounds, blowing away the rest of the field in all categories. Hadley is my pick to win.
Kevin Chappell – $9,000
Seeing Chappell last week at $10,200 was exciting, but at $9,000….my pants are off. I don’t understand the price drop considering his solid T20 last week at the Shriners. What makes that performance even better was the fact that he LOST 7.1 strokes putting. That put him near the bottom for the week but was able to overcome it by gaining a ridiculous amount of shots tee to green. Chappell is in a tier below Fowler and Reed in this field, but he is definitely one of the 10 best golfers competing this week. At $9,000, I will be well overweight on Chappell like I was last week with Cantlay. His price does not hinder your lineup construction in anyway. All in.
Bryson DeChambeau – $8,700
The scientist put on quite a display last week at the Shriners. Bryson gained six shots on the field in approach shots and was decent off the tee as well leading to his T7Â finish. He ranks 4th in my weighted stat model because of his strong approach game recently. So far in his career he has excelled on shorter courses, such as Harbour Town and TPC Deere Run. Bryson made the cut here last year in his first trip to El Camaleon, so the familiarity should help.
Ryan Armour – $7,500
Ryan Armour is keeping the heater going. I fully expected Armour to let off the gas pedal a bit last week after his win at the Sanderson Farms, but he came T20 at the Shriners where his putter let him down. Armour is a poor man’ Hadley in terms of key stats. Over his last 12 rounds, Armour ranks 3rd in the field in SG:APP and Bob Gained. He is also very efficient on Par 4s between 450-500, and this course has five of them.
J.J. Spaun – $7,100
It was tough to watch J.J. Spaun crumble on the weekend and see the win slip out of his hands on the final few holes. Even though he did fall apart, he gained 7.8 strokes on approaches last week which is encouraging and something he should be able to carry into this week. Consider the Shriners a learning experience for Spaun who had never really contended like last week on the PGA Tour. It’s very tough for guys to close their first time holding a lead heading into the weekend. I expect a lot of people will avoid Spaun because of the recency bias, but if he is the competitor he talks himself up to being, he should bounce back nicely in Mexico.
OHL Classic Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Patrick Reed – $10,500
Patrick Reed is the second most talented golfer in the field, but according to FanShare Sports, people haven’t even clued in he is playing this week. He has two tags so far, well behind Fowler, Perez and Hadley. Webb Simpson’s withdraw only gives three options above the $10K range so it’s hard to see Reed’s ownership dip below 10%. This is a very weak field that Reed could easily dominate. If building multiple GPP lineups Reed has to be in about 20%.
Charley Hoffman – $9,700
Hoffman had an up and down tournament last week in Las Vegas. He finished strong which is nice to see entering this week. At $9,700, Hoffman seems underpriced for this field. He won the 2014 OHL Classic but somehow followed it up with two missed cuts the last two years. Regardless, his pedigree is superior to over 90% of the field and could very well hoist the trophy again. He only has seven tags on FanShare Sports, and makes for a perfect pivot off of this week’s uber chalk Chesson Hadley.
Ryan Moore – $8,600
Ryan Moore had a rare off week with his approach shots at the Shriners, losing three strokes in SG:APP, his worst performance since the 2016 BMW Championship. I expect him to bounce back this week and not make arrant approaches a trend. Even with last week’s result, over his past 12 rounds Moore ranks 4th in the field in SG:APP and 1st in Good Drives gained. Bryson, Knox and Kokrak are gaining much more attention this week according to FanShare, so this looks like the perfect buy low opportunity.
Emiliano Grillo – $7,600
I expect Emiliano Grillo to have a solid year on tour after his sophomore slump in 2017. Grillo played decent at this year’s Safeway but failed to bring that form overseas to Asia. Grillo came T10 in last year’s OHL Classic so he clearly has the accuracy style game that will fit this course. He only has three tags on FanShare Sports, way less that McDowell and Streelman who are priced in the same range. Don’t be shocked to see Grillo’s name pop up on the leaderboard come Sunday.
Ben Silverman – $7,500
Ben Silverman has to be the least known Canadian on tour, despite his recent run solid form. He has made three straight cuts in his first year on tour, highlighted by a T7 at the Sanderson Farms. Even last week he battled his way back to a T47 after struggling out of the gate. Over his past 12 rounds, Silverman ranks 8th in SG:APP, 7th in BoB Gained and 7th in Par 5 scoring. If these stats continue he will be a phenomenal GPP play as he only has been mentioned twice on FanShare.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Whee Kim – $8,300
We saw Whee Kim contend last week at the Shriners for the first time ever. With the extra TV time, people will be drawn into him knowing he is coming in with some good form. However, it doesn’t take long to find out that he gained 8.6 strokes putting last week, while being slightly above average everywhere else. If his putting regresses just slightly he will come crashing down to earth. At $8,300 that is a huge risk to take.
Anirban Lahiri – $8,100
Fading Anirban last week worked well so let’s double down. As expected, his game took a total nose dive last week and he lost strokes in all categories except putting. He came T51 at the Shriners despite gaining four strokes on the green. If his putter cools off a bit this week and his ball striking remains suspect, a missed cut is well within the cards.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Russell Knox – $8,500
Knox has not been playing well, no question about it. He’s had one top 10 since this exact event last season. Luckily he is returning to course he has had a great deal of success at, a course he leads the field in strokes gained at over the past five years. He has back-to-back top fives at El Camaleon so perhaps all he needs is a familiar setting to get back on track.
Scott Brown – $8,000
After a solid Asian swing, Scott Brown had a disappointing result last week at the Shriners. Like Knox, El Cameleon is a course he has had success at in the past, recording a T5 here in 2015 and making four straight cuts. He has also won the Puerto Rico Open, which is a similar style course to EL Cameleon, both using Paspalum greens. His price jumped up to $8,000 so no one will be tempted to use him even though this is a perfect bounce back spot.
Kevin Streelman – $7,600
It what is almost impossible to do, Kevin Streelman lost nine strokes putting last week. We know how variant putting results can be, so in situations where we are looking for bounce back candidates, looking for a stat like like Streelman’s is ideal. He gained 6.9 strokes T2G last week so if he continues that and puts just average he should have a solid finish. Streelman also came T4 at the OHL Classic last year.
Thanks for reading the OHL Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Nov 1, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone enjoyed the Asian swing. We are back on North American soil this week with a full field event and a CUT!!! Finally.
It’s time for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open in Las Vegas Nevada. TPC Summerlin is the host course, which is a 7,255 yard Par 71 track. It has been the host of this event since 2008 and the scores typically reach the -20s. This is one of the easiest courses the touring pros will play so expect a lot of birdies and eagles, thanks to two very reachable Par 5s.
TPC Summerlin is a second shot golf course, so I will be weighting Strokes Gained Approach as the heaviest stat in my model. Recent winners and top 10 finishers at this event have exceeded in approach shots, rarely relying on the off the tee game. Since so many birdies do get made this week, Birdies or Better Gained will be extremely important. I will also sprinkle some weighting on Strokes Gained Around the Green, GIRs Gained and Bogey Avoidance to round out the rest of the stats.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Kevin Chappell – $10,200
Kevin Chappell was an easy call for me at the top. The high priced golfers on DraftKings isn’t pretty this week, so Chappell immediately stood out as the best value in this range. He is one of the class players in this field and is coming off his first President’s Cup. You would have to think he already has Ryder Cup on his mind. He is one of the best birdie makers in this field and if he is on, can lap the competition this week. The savings you are getting on Chappell can allow you to built some really solid lineups despite the lack of talent in the field. He’s a no brainer in the $10K+ range.
Patrick Cantlay – $9,700
Patrick Cantlay continues to impress. He flew over to China to play in the HSBC Champions event and casually cruised to another T15. A 73 on Sunday took him out of the top 10, but it was still a solid performance to kick off his 2017-2018 campaign. He begins the quest to pick up his first win on the PGA Tour, and the Shriners Open feels like an ideal spot to get the job done. He is accurate off the tee, can dial it in with his approach game and avoids making big numbers. He is one of the few golfers that has the complete package in the field. His price tag of $9,700 can still be considered a value.
Charley Hoffman – $9,000
Rarely am I a Charley Hoffman guy, but for $9,000 in this field, he becomes a must play. Like Chappell, Hoffman is coming off of an impressive President’s Cup and will be looking to make the trip to France for the Ryder Cup. He may as well get the season started on the right foot this week. Not only is Hoffman one of the top five players in the field, he is also playing with some added incentive. Hoffman has pledged to donate 100% of his winnings this week to the victims of the Las Vegas tragedy. You would think this added motivation will help him climb the leaderboard, as no one in the field wants to make the cut more than Hoffman. I’m all in.
Seamus Power – $7,700
Seamus Power played remarkably well last week at the Sanderson Farms but was let down by his around the green game. That does worry me slightly, as SG:ARG is one of the stats I am looking at, but Power had his worst week of chipping so far in his career losing four strokes on the field. He was elite from tee to green and if he continues that play he will have no problem getting around TPC Summerlin. Power is one of the best scorers in this field and can definitely get to -20 if he is firing on all cylinders.
Harold Varner III – $7,200
HV3 is back. After a fantastic rookie season in 2016, Varner took a step backwards in 2017. However it seems as though he has a new focus for this season back to back top 26 finishes in the Asian swing after strong run in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. To finish the season, Varner gained strokes on approach shots in seven out of eight events, something we weren’t use to seeing in his rookie season. His price tag is extremely affordable and he offers a tremendous amount of DraftKings scoring potential.
Shriners Hospital Open Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Kevin Na – $9,200
Kevin Na has some interesting results at TPC Summerlin. In the past six years, he has missed the cut twice, withdrawn, finished T22, was the runner up in 2015 and won in 2011. It’s a second shot course which has Na written all over it. Perhaps his below average finishes in Asia have turned people away – he failed to post a top 40 finish in two tries this year. Na is now back at a course he has had lots of success on and no one will be playing him. He only has five tags on FanShareSports, one of the fewest out of the $9K+ range.
Martin Laird – $8,60
Martine Laird is a former winner of this event and only has five tags on FanShareSports. Perhaps his price is keeping people away, which is exactly what we are looking for when making a pivot. Laird is surrounded by chalky options Lovemark, Streelman and List, all drawing way more eyes and attention. Laird’s last time out was a T17 at the Safeway which isn’t anything to ignore. Take the low owned Party Marty in GPPs and who knows, maybe a repeat of 2009 is in the cards.
Scott Brown – $7,400
Has everyone forgot what Scott Brown did in both South Korea and Malaysia not that long ago? You could argue he is one of the hottest golfers entering the Shriners Open with a T23 and T5 in two pretty impressive fields. Brown has a top 10 at TPC Summerlin within the past three years, and has made 3/5 cuts. He only has one tag on FanShareSports so expect his ownership to be next to nothing.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Anirban Lahiri – $10,300
It’s no longer the Asian swing, so it’s no longer time to be paying $10,300 for Lahiri. Yes, he played very well at the CJ Cup and CIMB Classic, but we have seen him have success in the past overseas. He hasn’t played in this event within the last five years and is known as one of the most inconsistent golfers on tour. At $10,300, I will let others pay for the enormous risk Lahiri carries.
Jason Kokrak – $8,800
There is no question this is a weak field, but to pay $8,800 for Kokrak seems a bit much. He did have a nice showing at the Sanderson Farms last week, but he has next to no success at TPC Summerlin in the past. In the past five years, he has three missed cuts, at 74th and a T38. Those are brutal results and is well within the range of outcomes again this week. Kokrak gained 4.7 strokes on the field putting last week, a result that will be difficult to replicate.
Ryan Armour – $8,100
Ryan Armour is definitely a feel good story. PGA Tour journeyman picks up his first win at age 41. Seems like an ideal let down spot doesn’t it? His price has jumped all the way to $8,100 and people will still roster him because of last week’s result. Like Kokrak, Armour gained 7.7 strokes on the field putting last week, a result that seems very unsustainable. I’d be shocked if Armour finishes inside the top 10 and for that, he won’t find his way onto a single roster.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Gary Woodland – $9,600
Only going with one this week because there aren’t many golfers who played in the main DK slate last week (HSBC Champions) and disappointed. Hell, Woodland wasn’t one of those guys either but he did let us down a couple of times in Asia. In two no cut events, Woodland failed to crack the top 25 both times despite being heavily talked about as a potential winner in Malaysia. Over his past 12 recorded rounds however, Woodland has been crushing it with approach shots, but his putter has been letting him down like it usually does. I’m willing to roll the dice with a low owned Woodland.
Thanks for reading the Shriners Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Oct 24, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope the CJ Cup treated you well. New rule, never fade Justin Thomas. The guy is a monster, can win on demand and seems to be under owned far too often. Unfortunately we won’t have a chance to implement the new rule for a while. JT is taking some deserved time off.
Next up, we have the World Golf Championship – HSBC Champions from Shanghai, China. This event has been hosted by the Sheshan International Golf Club every year since it was established in 2005. We have another 78 man field, no cut event to deal with. The limited field and guaranteed (sort of) four rounds of golf, pretty much makes every golfer an options in multi-entry tournaments. This isn’t your typical WGC event either, due to its location, not all of the super stars show up. The course is relatively easy, as the winning score five out of the last six years has been -20 or better. It is a 7,200 Par 72 course and even though less fairways are hit here compared to the average PGA Tour event, the fact that scores get a low as they do makes it seem that it’s a bombs away track.
For stats this week, I will be focusing heavily on Strokes Gained Ball Striking (Off the tee + Approach). I don’t care how these golfers get to the green, whether it be with accuracy or distance – get there more efficiently than the field and they’ll find their way onto some rosters. As mentioned before, we have another no cut event so birdies will be coveted. Birdies equal scoring on DraftKings, so Birdies or Better Gained will be a stat I’m weighing heavily. All the Par 3s are between 200-225 yards, so Par 3 Scoring – 200-225 will be looked at. Toss in Eagle Rate and Bogey Avoidance to complete the stat package.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Jason Day – $10,200
You can’t go wrong at the top of the board this week. DJ will be tough to fit in due to his price and the lack of talent at the bottom of the field. Deki and Rose have their strengths as well, but if I am going to build a single lineup, Jason Day will be the first golfer I click. I am going to look past the terrible bubble vest he wore in South Korea and focus on his numbers. He ranks 1st in my weighted stat model over the past 12 rounds thanks to his elite Bob Gained, eagle rate and P3 scoring from 200-225. He finished a respectable 11th last week at the CJ Cup as well. Day hasn’t played this event within the last five years. Perhaps this is a sign that he is confident in his game and is ready to bounce back after a disappointed 2017 campaign.
Paul Casey – $9,400
Paul Casey is becoming an extremely boring, but rewarding golfer to own in DFS. Just because he cannot win a golf tournament, doesn’t mean you should ever avoid him. You can’t roster six winning golfers. Casey came T7 at the CIMB Classic and T19 last week at the CJ Cup, showing his form from 2017 has carried on into the fall season. He has three top 25s at the HSBC Champions in his last three appearances. Casey’s $9,400 price tag is very affordable in cash and I highly recommend you make room for him on your roster.
Ross Fisher – $8,400
Fisher is likely going to be the chalk of the week for many good reasons. He enters this week with back-to-back runner up finishes in the last two weeks. If it wasn’t for Tyrrell Hatton’s hot putter, he would have at least one win. Fisher has also had tremendous success at Sheshan International, T6 in 2016 and T3 in 2015. His form and course history make him an obvious strong play. The one reason to fade him would be fear his ownership gets out of control and exceeds 30%. I don’t think that will be the case. The majority of the people playing DFS will roster much more familiar names in his price range like Reed or Berger.
Tony Finau – $7,700
Finau’s price has been yo-yo’ing the last few weeks. He has been over $10K twice and now $7,700 twice in four events. That decrease in price will entice people to roster him, but the entire price range is littered with other solid plays that his ownership shouldn’t get over 20%. Finau ranks 4th in BoB Gained over the last 12 rounds and makes more eagles than most golfers in the field. He enters this week with a T26 at the CJ Cup and a 2nd at the Safeway Open. I like his price and form and I’m excited to see how Finau performs in his first ever WGC event.
Thorbjorn Olesen – $7,300
Thorbjorn Olesen is the sexy pick of the week that seems to be gaining traction. Olesen has a combination of recent form, tournament history and stats that make him a solid value play. Olesen has missed one cut in his last 12 events, a run that includes multiple top 10 finishes. He also seems to love playing at Sheshan GC. He has played here three times in the past five years, with his best finishing being a T6 in 2014 and worst being a T19 in 2015. Olesen also ranks 2nd in the field in SG:Putting on bent grass over the past 50 rounds.
WGC-HSBC Champions Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Brooks Koepka – $9,700
Brooks is back! We haven’t seen him since the Tour Championship, an event he came 6th in. This event should set up perfectly for him and yes, I’m aware of his T40 last year. He’s a birdie making machine and should give himself numerous looks at eagle as well. Remember, all we care about his DraftKings scoring and even if he finishes 20th, he has a great chance of finishing inside the top 10 in DK points. Koepka only has 11 tags on FanShare Sports, which is the fewest out of anyone priced above $9K.
Patrick Cantlay – $8,900
What happened to the hype that surrounded Patrick Cantlay all of last season? Cantlay had an incredible season, not missing a single cut in the 12 events he played. He made the Tour Championship despite playing only nine events prior to the FedEx Cup Playoffs. That is insane. Now priced at $8,900, no one is talking about him. Cantlay only has seven tags on FanShare Sports and will be one of the lowest owned golfers above $8K. Easily my favorite GPP play on the board.
Alexander Noren – $7,900
Noren is priced in a crowded price range, surrounded by chalky options Fisher, Hatton, Molinari and Finau. What a great time to pivot. Noren doesn’t have the best recent form – T38 at the Italian Masters two weeks ago and a missed cut prior. However, he did come T12 at this tournament last year, can make enough birdies and is known for hitting a ton of greens in reg. Noren has yet to prove himself on a big time stage since jumping up into the top 10 in the world, but this could be the event he does. It still has a Euro Tour vibe to it, which is what he needs.
Hudson Swafford – $7,200
Swafford ranks 9th in my weighted stat model and is 10th in SG:BS over the past 12 rounds in this field. He has the length and birdie making ability that can go a long way at Sheshan GC. He is priced only $300 more than the dead minimum, which is crazy for the form he has entering this week. If the stats don’t sell you, Swafford only has three tags on FanShare Sports, and will be way less owned then Haas, Olesen and Li.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Henrik Stenson – $9,600
In a field of this strength with no cut, it’s difficult to narrow down automatic fades. So taking a look at golfers that have no chance to make my cash lineup, let’s begin with Henrik Stenson. Stenson has great course history, coming T2 last year and T11 in 2015. However, Stenson hasn’t played since the BMW Championship compared to most of the other top plays who have a few events under their belt this fall. Let’s also not forget Stenson does have the DGAF reputation if things go south on Thursday.
Lucas Glover – $7,800
Glover has had a strong Asian season with a T7 in Malaysia and T15 in South Korea. He is a golfer that will always light up the score sheet because of his elite tee to green game. With that said, I don’t like his $7,800 price tag – seems too high for a golfer with limited winning upside. The reason for that limited upside is his putter, especially on bent grass. Over the past 100 rounds, Glover ranks 59th out of the 61 golfers who qualified.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Jon Rahm – $10,000
Although Rahm didn’t have a chance to burn those who only play PGA DFS, he did miss the cut at his home event on the European Tour. A lot of people will look at his missed cut last week and figure he is out of form. You can imagine the amount of pressure Rahm would have putt on himself last week in Spain. Chalk that missed cut up to nerves, pressure and getting in his own way. Rahm will be under owned in a prime bounce back spot.
Xander Schauffele – $8,700
Ouu boy that was ugly. Those who backed Xander in a big way last week are feeling the burn after his 82 on Friday. He didn’t bounce back at all on the weekend either and fell to the bottom of the leaderboard. Xander has been playing a ton of golf lately which is a bit concerning, but his ownership will be non-existent this week. If bombers have an advantage at Sheshan GC, then Xander definitely has a shot. The conditions last week were miserable, perhaps it was a good week for Xander to take off and go through the motions. Time to load back up.
Si Woo Kim – $7,300
Si Woo struggled in his native country last week with a lot of expectations on him. We know how inconsistent he is – almost like extreme case of the Justin Thomas’s. Anyone who can win The Players is worthy to be in a GPP lineup or two in a no cut event. Kim doesn’t have a single tag on FanShare Sports, which gives you an idea of what his ownership will be.
Thanks for reading the HSBC Champions preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by EPattersonFS | Oct 11, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! It’s time to pack our bags and head overseas to Malaysia for the CIMB Classic. This is the second leg of the fall swing series and will host a unique field, with a mix of PGA, Euro and Asian Tour golfers. We get a week off from the Web.com Tour Grads.
The event will be played at TPC Kuala Lumpur. It is a 7,000 yard Par 72 that will get eaten up but the elite golfers in this field. Justin Thomas has won this event two years in a row, posting a combined -49 under par. There is only 78 golfers in the field and there will be no cut, adding a wrinkle to this event we have seen in the past. The guaranteed 72 holes allows us to target golfers who may be perceived as volatile, but over the course of a full four rounds can return value by simply making more birdies than other golfers.
Stats for this week are pretty simple and are some of the key stats as they relate to DraftKings scoring. First, Birdie or Better Gained is a stat that can be found at FantasyNational.com. It is looking at who is making more birdies relative to the other golfers in the same event. It takes out some of the noise in the birdie or better percentage stat that compares all golfers without differentiating between courses. Strokes Gained:Approach and Strokes Gained Ball Striking (Off the tee + Approach) will also be incorporated into my model. I will also be taking a small piece of Eagle % and Bogey Avoidance.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Xander Schauffele – $9,700
The are pretty slim pickings at the top of the board this week. Thomas, Matsuyama and Casey are all good options and clearly the elite of the field, but my favorite golfer in terms of price, ownership and upside has to be Xander Schauffele. The reigning rookie of the year will look to get his sophomore season started on the right foot in Malaysia. He is only $9,700 and coming off of his Tour Championship win. Xander only has 17 tags on Fan Share Sports, way less than the golfers priced above him. Differentiate your lineups and start them with X.
Gary Woodland – $8,700
Over his past 12 rounds, Gary Woodland is 3rd in the field in SG:BS and 4th in SG:APP. He is one of the best birdie makers in the field and giving the fact that he is guaranteed 72 holes, He is a must play in all formats. Woodland turned his 2017 season around at the end of the year and will look to keep the momentum going into the 2018 season. It’s been a few years since Woodland has found success in Malaysia, but he had a runner up finish in 2014 and 2013.
Kevin Na – $8,200
I am going back to the well with Kevin Na. Despite his closing 77 at the Safeway Open, Na played very well and was in the mix on Saturday. Na has had lots of success at TPC Kuala Lumpur too. In his past four visits here, he has three top 10s, two of which were inside the top three. Na stands out statistically as well, ranking 2nd in SG:APP and 2nd in BoB Gained over his past 12 rounds.
Chez Reavie – $7,600
Even with back to back top 15 finishes and a run of 12 straight made cuts, Chez Reavie sees his price tag drop heading into the CIMB Classic. Reavie didn’t disappoint last week gaining 5.4 strokes on approach shots alone. Reavie won’t gain as much attention as he should because he will be deemed as a low upside play, but in a field of this strength he has the same potential to finish inside the top 10 as any of the elite golfers in the field.
CIMB Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Branden Grace – $9,200
This is strictly an ownership play. Grace is projected to see the lowest ownership of anyone priced above $9,200, despite his pedigree and recent performance at the President’s Cup. He only has three tags on Fan Share Sports. Grace has played at TPC Kuala Lumpur in the past, his best result being a T17 in 2015. In this limited field with no cut, targetting golfers whose ownership should be below 10% can be a difference maker. Most likely candidate for that this week has to be Grace.
Russell Knox – $8,100
Another golfer with next to no buzz is Russell Knox. He only has two tags on Fan Share Sports, likely due to his recent form. However, this no cut event provides an opportunity to roster some more volatile golfers. Knox finished T10 at this tournament last year and T21 in 2015. Over his past 12 rounds he ranks 14th in SG:BS and 21st in SG:APP, both reasonable numbers for a golfer who is considered to be struggling.
Nick Taylor – $7,600
Nick Taylor quietly finished T9 last week at the Safeway Open putting together a solid tournament gaining strokes in all categories. Now with only two tags on Fan Share Sports and priced below some of the most chalky options this week, Taylor is destined to be overlooked once again. He has played very well in back-to-back fall seasons and it looks like he will be making it three straight.
Sung Kang – $6,900
Sung Kang will not reach 5% ownership this week and in a field of only 78 golfers, sprinkling some Kang into your lineups will be beneficial. Kang finished T21 here last season and is entering the event with some decent form. He ranks 36th in the field in SG:APP over his past 12 rounds and tends to show up everyone once in awhile. There are plenty of Asian Tour fliers out there this week, but why not go with a golfer who is dirt cheap and has had success on the PGA Tour.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Pat Perez – $9,000
I know it’s a weak field but come on – $9,000 for Pat Perez? Yes, he played solid through the FedEx Cup Playoffs but that should increase his ownership because people will remember those results. They won’t look at this poor course history, three straight finishes outside the top 30, or the fact that he lost 6.2 strokes tee to green at the Tour Championship. Take a pass on Perez at that hefty price and jump on one of the many options around him.
Anirban Lahiri – $8,200
Anirban Lahiri currently has the third most tags on Fan Share Sports and immediately that screams fade. Lahiri is one of the most inconsistent golfers on tour so any chance you can fade him while he is projected to be chalk, you have to do it. He did finish T3 at this event last year, but don’t ignore the four results prior which were all outside of the top 20. There is definitely some recency bias baked into his projected high ownership because of his showing at the President’s Cup and all eyes were watching that week. Let the variance in golf play out and capitalize when Lahiri likely under performs.
Keegan Bradley – $7,000
What did Keegan Bradley do last week to deserve this much attention? He ranks inside the top 10 in tags on Fan Share Sports after a missed cut at the Safeway Open. Perhaps it was his 6th place finish at the CIMB last year? Don’t forget about his T47 in 2015 either. Bradley is likely to see a lot of ownership being priced just $200 above the minimum. Chalky Bradley makes me want to run, far away.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Peter Uihlein – $7,700
Well, it looks like everyone’s shiny new toy from last week was completely dull. Uihlein was a huge disappointment at the Safeway Open, missing the cut and showing no signs of good form. With that said, he still owns the same skill set everyone was raving about a week ago, is $1,100 cheaper and won’t see near the amount of ownership he did last week. Uihlein also has the upper hand in terms of being accustomed to long travel times and time changes with his experience on the Euro Tour.
Jamie Lovemark – $7,500
Lovemark came out of the gate hot last week but was unable to follow up his opening round 67. He was over 20% owned in a lot of large GPP contests, and those owners have not forgotten about his mediocre T43. Lovemark is still one of the best birdie makers in this field and in a no cut event can pay off his salary simply by playing 72 holes. He’s worth owning in case we were all a week early on him.
Thanks for reading the CIMB Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Oct 9, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Justin Thomas, will return to Malaysia to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system —
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win compared to DraftKings salary.
DraftKings Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
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