Going through and setting your One & Done lineup for the entire year, instead of setting it weekly, is one of the best thought exercises that I can recommend. You not only remove the weekly biases that are certain to creep into your brain but you also ensure that you use all of the best golfers that are available to you. This is something that I have done, along with a weekly selection, for the past few years. More often than not, the team that I set at the start of the year outperforms the one that I choose on a weekly basis.

I use the data-driven strategy outlined in previous one & done posts for the foundation of my lineup.

Golfer Schedules

The big caveat is that we don’t know where every golfer will tee it up each year. We can certainly make assumptions based on the prestige of the event and the golfer’s past history, but there might need to be small tweaks made throughout the season to keep this on track.

Start With The Big Boys

I’m talking about purses, not golfers. There are 11 events in the 2022 year that will have a purse of more than $10,000,000. There are eight that will have a purse greater than $11,000,000 and there are only three that will be greater than $12,000,000. But the biggest one of all, the PLAYERS Championship, will feature a staggering $20,000,000 purse. That’s the same amount as combining the U.S. Open and 3M Open purses together.

These massive events will be the spots where you can create leverage on the field and you can be sure to use the best golfer’s available. When you’re setting your lineups, start with these events.

Find The Course Horses

There are plenty of tools available at RickRunGood.com to help you find which golfers play the best on each course. It’s really as simple as clicking the tournament name and looking for each golfer’s results. This not only tells us where a golfer should succeed but it also gives us a hint into their schedule. If a golfer played the Valero Texas Open for five straight years, with decent success, you can assume they will tee it up again this time around.

Embrace Volatility

There are a handful of events where you should be looking to embrace volatility as much as possible. For example, the WGC Match Play event has been a tough test for the best players in the world. Often times, the top seed isn’t even making it out of their own group, let alone making a deep run. This is the only WGC event on the calendar for 2022 and it has a massive $11,500,000 purse. This would be a decent spot to either pick a golfer further down the rankings or find someone with elite match play history.

The Zurich Classic, the team event, is another place to get creative. Most One & Done Leagues allow you to choose one golfer but still get access to their teammate without burning both. The two most natural selections in this slot would be Ryan Palmer and Billy Horschel who will presumably play with Jon Rahm and Sam Burns respectively.

My Proposed Lineup

When you start going through the numbers and slotting guys into tournaments you might need to do some tweaking based on your own risk tolerance. Here’s what I ended up with, sorted by Purse:

Date	Purse	Tournament	Golfer
3/13/2022	$20,000,000	THE PLAYERS Championship	Justin Thomas
6/19/2022	$12,500,000	U.S. Open	Brooks Koepka
5/22/2022	$12,000,000	PGA Championship	Scottie Scheffler
3/27/2022	$11,500,000	WGC Dell Technologies Match Play	Patrick Cantlay
4/10/2022	$11,500,000	The Masters	Bryson DeChambeau
7/17/2022	$11,500,000	The Open Championship	Jordan Spieth
8/14/2022	$11,500,000	FedEx St. Jude Championship	Dustin Johnson
8/21/2022	$11,500,000	BMW Championship	Jon Rahm
2/20/2022	$10,500,000	The Genesis Invitational	Collin Morikawa
3/6/2022	$10,500,000	Arnold Palmer Invitational	Matt Fitzpatrick
6/5/2022	$10,500,000	the Memorial	Xander Schauffele
5/15/2022	$9,100,000	AT&T Bryon Nelson	Tony Finau
5/8/2022	$9,000,000	Wells Fargo Championship	Rory McIlroy
2/6/2022	$8,700,000	AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Daniel Berger
6/12/2022	$8,700,000	RBC Canadian Open	Harris English
4/3/2022	$8,600,000	Valero Texas Open	Sam Burns
1/30/2022	$8,400,000	Farmers Insurance Open	Viktor Hovland
5/29/2022	$8,400,000	Charles Schwab Challenge	Jason Kokrak
7/31/2022	$8,400,000	Rocket Mortgage Classic	Joaquin Niemann
4/24/2022	$8,300,000	Zurich Classic	Billy Horschel
6/26/2022	$8,300,000	Travelers Championship	Sergio Garcia
2/13/2022	$8,200,000	Waste Management Phoenix Open	Louis Oosthuizen
2/27/2022	$8,000,000	The Honda Classic	Sungjae Im
4/17/2022	$8,000,000	RBC Heritage	Abraham Ancer
7/10/2022	$8,000,000	Genesis Scottish Open	Robert MacIntyre
3/20/2022	$7,800,000	Valspar Championship	Paul Casey
1/23/2022	$7,600,000	The American Express	Talor Gooch
1/16/2022	$7,500,000	Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners
7/24/2022	$7,500,000	3M Open	Matthew Wolff
5/1/2022	$7,300,000	Mexico Championship	Hideki Matsuyama
8/7/2022	$7,300,000	Wyndham Championship	Webb Simpson
7/3/2022	$7,100,000	John Deere Classic	Russell Henley
3/6/2022	$3,700,000	Puerto Rico Open	Maverick McNealy
3/27/2022	$3,700,000	Corales Puntacana Championship	Mackenzie Hughes
7/10/2022	$3,700,000	Barbasol Championship	Mito Pereira
7/17/2022	$3,700,000	Barracuda Championship	Emiliano Grillo

One and done leagues have gained popularity in the last few seasons and contests have been popping up like crazy! This is because one can find success in these contests without a lot of skill or much work. I’ll be highlighting some of the tips and tricks to hopefully help you find success in your one and done league.

 

Know Your Rules

Believe it or not, this is the number one problem area I see every year. Understanding the rules of the contest is the easiest fix to help give you an edge since so many of the participants in contests do not know them. The standard one and done rules typically include picking one golfer each week and not picking the same golfer again for the rest of the contest. The money that your golfer earns is equal to the number of points you earn, and the contest participant with the most points at the conclusion of the contest season is the winner.

Some leagues have variations of these rules. A contest may allow participants to pick two golfers during major championships or allow a mulligan (two and done). Another important part is knowing which event marks the conclusion of the season. If the TOUR Championship is included, the point distribution may or may not include starting strokes or the bonus money. For example, if your league includes 20% of the bonus money from the TOUR Championship, that may be the biggest payout of the year and you may want to save or designate a specific golfer for that event.

Know The Payouts

Is it winner take all? Does the top 10 percent get all the prize money? This is something that may drive some of your decisions. For example, if the payouts are winner take all, you may want to take a high-risk, high-reward type of approach since only one spot pays out. If the top 25% get paid, you may be happy taking a safer, more chalky approach.

Know How Many Entries There Are

Knowing how many people are in your contest crucial. If you’re only playing with nine others and it’s a 10-team league, you can probably take more safe plays and pile on the chalk since averaging about 200,000 to 250,000 points per week is probably more than enough to win that league.

If there are hundreds or even thousands of other participants in your league, you’ll probably want to take a more high-risk, high-reward strategy since the person who wins a multi-hundred- or thousand-person league is going to need a “ceiling season” by getting multiple winners over the course of the season. Understanding these details about your league before you click a golfer name is going to help set you apart from the rest of your competitors.

Top 5 Strategy

The Top 5 Strategy is one that I have been using successfully for the last couple of years. It revolves around choosing one golfer from the top 5 odds on the betting board each week. This makes your decision-making process very easy because it narrows your choices down to a handful of golfers. Also, oddsmakers have already considered course fit, recent form, and other history which are factors we consider when we are making a weekly one and done pick.

I tested this theory – Based on a 32-event set in 2021, I took the top 5 players (and ties) on the betting odds each week and I ran an analysis on their finishing positions compared to other players further down the board. In 10 out of 32 events, one of the “Top 5” won the event (31.25%). Considering that some of these fields are 140+ golfers, this is very impressive. The missed cut rate was 38 of 182, meaning that someone in that range won more frequently than the combined missed cut rate of all the “Top 5” across all the events. This analysis illustrates that you should be generally picking a golfer with one of the top 5 odds.

One critique that this strategy could be that there might not be enough variety of golfers in the top 5 of the betting odds to be able to only use each golfer once and stay within the parameters. I tested this in those 32 events. There were 47 different golfers that at some point were in the top 5 of the betting odds. If you are strategic about where you play them, that’s likely more golfers than picks you must make so the critique does not hold.

Where To Use Which Golfers

The best average finishes from the golfers in the top 5 betting odds have come at events with large purses. In my analysis of the 32-event set from 2021, the best events for the “Top 5” were the US Open, the Open Championship, the CJ Cup, the Travelers Championship, WGC Workday, and the ZOZO Championship. This means that five of the top six events in which you want to absolutely deploy your “Top 5” are major championships and no-cut events (exception is Travelers Championship).

Now, if you want to be different and find an edge, you should stay out of the “Top 5” for certain events. According to the analysis I did on the 32-event set from 2021, the five worst events to deploy the “Top 5 Strategy” are the Wyndham Championship, Shriners Children’s Open, PGA Championship, John Deere Classic, and Rocket Mortgage Classic. These events have a very large field with a bit more volatility, so they lend to the worst finishes for the “Top 5.”

Set A Yearly Outline

Setting a yearly outline ahead of time is great exercise for anyone trying to take their one and done more seriously because the worst thing you can do is be a prisoner of the moment. By looking just at last one or two weeks you may subject yourself recency biases that can lead you down the wrong path. I have run parallel one and done entries: one that I would set each week and another that I had set from the before the year started. Oftentimes, the entry I had set from before the year started would beat the entry I would set week-by-week. Of course, there were times that I had assigned a golfer who didn’t end up playing the event leading me to have to swap out.

This strategy helps also helps with making sure that you use all the top golfers. I often get messages from league participants who are down 2 million points asking which of the many top 10 golfers they have remaining they should deploy in the 3 events remaining in the season. If there are only three events left and you still have Rahm, DeChambeau, Spieth, McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Schauffele, and Hovland to use, you have been saving for too long and you should have used some of them already! Setting a yearly outline helps prevent this from happening because it helps you plan to deploy the top golfers over the course of the season. Using the Holy Grail on RickRunGood.com allows you to check the average finishing position for each golfer, allowing you to plan to deploy golfers at courses where they commonly find success. Because often there are “breakout golfers” and because golf can be so random, I would much rather plan to use the top golfers rather than save them for the very end and risk not being able to use them at all.

Play Your Position

Up until this point, the topics we have discussed have revolved around making sure you are playing in your league optimally rather than discussing strategy. In a vacuum, that is all that should matter. However, you must consider what your position is in the league as the season goes on, especially in a sport as volatile as golf.

For example, if you are in the chasing position, where you are in the middle or bottom of your league and you have ground to make up halfway through the season, make sure you are not picking the same golfer that it seems like everyone else ahead of you is going to pick. Let’s say it’s the PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy is in the top 5 odds, he has great form coming in, and a lot of people ahead of you have not used Rory McIlroy yet. This is your chance to be contrarian! If you pick the same golfer that it seems like everyone else will, your position won’t really change. If you pick someone else who is a few percentage points less likely to win but far less owned, you have a chance to improve your standings.

Conversely, if you’re leading your contest, you can play the safest and chalkiest golfers and let everyone else try to chase you. In the PGA Championship example, you would pick the safest option, Rory McIlroy, and keep piling up the two or three percentage points of advantage. Therefore, knowing your position and making picks accordingly is one of the most important in-season adjustments that you can make.

To recap everything that will help you have a leg up in your one and done league:

1. Know the rules,
2. know your payouts,
3. consider setting a tentative schedule, at least for practice, before the season starts,
4. live within the top 5 of the betting odds (and use them especially at the big payouts, the major championships, and the no-cut events), and
5. know your position; when to chase and when to front-run.

If you understand those aspects, you will be much better than most of the people in your one and done league. Of course, a little luck and skill will be involved but this should at least help provide a good foundation. Be sure to check out a subscription to RickRunGood.com for all of your golf data needs.

Best of Luck!

One of the most unique aspects of golf wagering and one that present itself on a regular basis, is hedging. Should you hedge? How should you do it? When should you do it?

What is Hedging?

Hedging, very simply, is making a secondary wager to ensure a profit on your primary wager and/or lessen your risk. There are some very tangible examples in other sports, so let’s look at one from the NFL. If you bet $100 on the Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl prior to the season at 40-1 odds, you’d be in line to cash out $4,100 if the Eagles do indeed win the Super Bowl. Let’s assume they face the New England Patriots in the Big Game and you have a very easy hedging opportunity. You can bet an amount of money, let’s say $2,000 on the Patriots at -200. So your two outcomes are:

1. Eagles win the Super Bowl – You win $4,100 on your future and lose $2,000 on your hedge for a $2,100 profit.
2. Patriots win the Super Bowl – You lose $100 on your future and win $1,000 on your hedge for a $900 profit.

In this scenario, there are no other possible outcomes, so you guaranteed yourself a victory.

Why is Golf Hedging Unique?

There’s really no other sport in which you can be holding a large ticket that you placed on a longshot just a few days prior. Think about it, where else can you find a 50-1 or 100-1 ticket that has a realistic chance of cashing on a near weekly basis? Most other scenarios in sports wagering would require you to place a future bet on a team to win the Championship, for example, and you’d need to wait six to nine months for that ticket to cash.

In golf, these situations are occurring nearly every week which often puts you in a difficult position about when and how to hedge. The problem with golf hedging is that these scenarios are not binary, meaning there are really endless different outcomes. Unlike our NFL example above, it’s not this team OR that that. It’s this guy or that guy or maybe one of those guys. There are sometimes a dozen different golfers with a realistic chance to win the event at the time you are looking to hedge.

When Should You Hedge?

The most common time to hedge your outright ticket would be after the third round. Not only has every golfer played the same number of holes but the natural break allows for you to really assess your options without having to make a split-second decision. Let me provide you with a recent, real-life leaderboard after the third round. NOTE: I have changed the player’s names for ease, but the scores, live odds and opening odds are all real.

1. Patrick Reed -17, Live Odds: -125, Opening Odds +5000
2. Justin Thomas -14, Live Odds: +500, Opening Odds +1500
3. Rory McIlroy -13, Live Odds: +500, Opening Odds +1800
4. Jon Rahm -12, Live Odds: +1400, Opening Odds +1100
5. Bryson DeChambeau -12, Live Odds +1800, Opening Odds +2000

Let’s imagine that you are holding a pre-tournament +5000 ticket on Patrick Reed that you placed $100 on, meaning you’re due for a $5,100 payout if Reed wins the tournament. If you wanted to hedge, how would you do it? There are multiple golfers who have a chance to win the event and placing a small wager on all of them would really dilute your potential winnings.

Leads Aren’t That Safe

In the above example, Reed’s three-shot lead might feel insurmountable but let me assure you… it is not. In fact, a golfer with a three-shot lead going into the final round only wins the tournament 43.8% of the time. Less than half the time! Even larger leads aren’t locks according to these historic win rates after three rounds:

• 1 Shot Lead: 30.6% Win Rate
• 2 Shot Lead: 39.7% Win Rate
• 3 Shot Lead: 43.8% Win Rate
• 4 Shot Lead: 76.1% Win Rate
• 5 Shot Lead: 79.5% Win Rate

The larger the lead, the more difficult it becomes to hedge in my opinion. Still using the scenario above, if Reed does not win the tournament it’s more likely that he stumbles and comes back to the field instead of one golfer shooting a ridiculously low score and beating him. If Reed does indeed come back to the field, he just gave an opportunity to a half dozen golfers to beat him. Meaning more golfers are live to win, making a hedge even more difficult.

The Best Ways To Hedge

To me, trying to figure out which chaser might derail my large outright ticket is a fool’s errand. It’s one that will require plenty of guessing and lots of luck. I’d prefer to hedge in some non-conventional ways.

Pre-Tournament Hedging – Seriously! Let’s think ahead, before the event starts and not get stuck in a sick situation on a Saturday night. The best way to hedge your longshot tickets is at the same time you make the bet, by also place a wager on their Top 5 or Top 10 number as well. In many parts of the globe, sportsbooks offer this as an “Each Way” but in the United States, we will need to create these ourselves.

When you placed $100 on Patrick Reed to win at +5000, you could have split that into two bets — one for $50 on his outright number at +5000 and one for $50 on his Top 5 number at +1000. If Reed does actually win, you would cash both bets, totaling a return of $3,100. If Reed falters and finishes third, you’d still return $500.

In this scenario, it doesn’t matter which golfer beats Reed and trying to guess that correctly, because you’ll return a profit as long as he remains in the Top 5. These two wagers don’t have to be equal and you can mess around with Top 5 versus Top 10 wagers to find what is right for you.

Consider Your Matchup Options – Betting a final round matchup against one or two of the closest chasers is a fairly low risk way to hedge an outright ticket in golf. Continuing with our example above, Patrick Reed will enter the final round with a three-shot lead over Justin Thomas. If you place a fourth round matchup wager on Thomas to beat Reed, you’ve opened up a few different avenues.

If Thomas goes on to win the tournament, he’s certainly going to shoot a better final round score than Reed and you would win that matchup wager.

Additionally, you could win both wagers here — something that is quite rare in hedging. Reed could easily go out and shoot a 68 on Sunday while Thomas shoots a 67. Thomas would win the matchup but Reed would still win the tournament. You’d be a winner on both tickets.

Conclusion

In short, golf hedging is hard and there’s lots of luck involved. Putting yourself in a position to succeed before the event and understanding all your options during the event will at least make you a well-informed hedger … if you choose to do it! Good luck!

 

What’s up guys – Rick here showing you how I build my betting card for golf tournaments. The method I use really focuses on two different factors:

1. How much I’m willing to wager each week and
2. The amount that I want to win if I do indeed hit an outright winner.

With those two factors we are going to be able to build a very well balanced betting card for a golf tournament.

I’ve put together a mock betting options list and a betting card on the right hand side.

Click here to view sample betting card and make your own adjustments.

As mentioned, you have to figure out two things first.

How much are willing to wager on a weekly basis.

This should be whatever you can afford to lose (let’s endorse and promote responsible gambling here). So for our purposes, we’ll start with a hundred dollars. I’ll willing to wager a hundred dollars on golf outrights every single week.

How much you want to receive as a payout if you do get an outright correct.

This is a little abstract and is something that you might have to tweak over time to see what is comfortable for you. Whatever you choose for this amount is going to determine how much you must wager, and thus how many players or how many golfers you can make bets on over the course of any given week.

Related: Best offers in your state for Caesars Sportsbook, Bet MGM, and BetRivers

We’ll tinker with the payout as well. If I have it set at $500, that means I’m willing to wager $100 on a weekly basis and any time I get an outright winner I’m going to win $500.With those two things we can start building a betting card.

This is a very simple spreadsheet. All it allows me to do is copy and paste in our options into our betting card and see what the wager would be.

Examples

Based on my variables Dustin Johnson at 8:1 odds: to earn me a payout of $500 if he wins, I need to wager $62.50 on him. The shorter the odds are for a golfer the more you’re going to have to wager to get to that $500. For example if I want JT Poston on my betting card, I only need to wager $5 on him to get to my $500 target payout.

When I have my videos where I’m going through my betting card, it’s rare that you’ll see me load up on two guys at the top. For example if I choose Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau, I need to wager $62.50 on Dustin Johnson and I need to wager $50 on Bryson DeChambeau at 10:1 with a total of $112.50 which is over my $100 limit. (See Below)

Conversely, if we only bet one of the top golfers, we can build a much more diverse card and be within the budget, going over by only $0.83. (See below)

This method might not work well for everyone, but it is what I am most comfortable with. I can customize it based on my personal risk aversion level and I am challenged to make difficult decisions. To see the best odds and offers available in your state, visit RickRunGood.com/Bets

Good Luck!