ZOZO Championship DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

ZOZO Championship DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

ZOZO Championship at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan

Course Key Stats

We only have one year’s worth of data for this course. Driving distance is the most strongly correlated stat, with only four other courses ranking higher in terms of correlation with driving distance.

Bentgrass Greens
Par 70
78 Golfers, No cut

 

$10K+ Range

Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – Anytime Morikawa can putt well he is a stronger contender to win since he plays reliably well with his irons and his wedges.

  • Gained 3.8 strokes putting last week and finished second
  • Gained 3.8 strokes putting at the Olympics and was in the 7-way playoff for bronze.

Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) –  Was a small positive off the tee and on approach at Shriners – a good approach player who could make some noise at this event

Hideki Matsuyama (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – He will get the hero’s welcome here as he finished second in 2019

Tommy Fleetwood (Salary: DraftKings – $10K) – Using the Holy Grail Tool we can look at round by round data.

  • In the third round at CJ Cup he gained 4.5 strokes on the field, 2 of them are ball-striking. This is the round that would be considered vintage Tommy Fleetwood, hopefully we can see more of this.

Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $11K) – His last official PGA Tour win was a 2019 Tournament of Champions – nearly 3 years ago.

 

$9K Range

Steep drop-off in terms of field talent from the 10K range to the 9K range

Rickie Fowler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – LAST WEEK He led the field in strokes gained tee to green. Rick Fowler, NOT Rory McIlroy, led the field off the tee. Hopefully he can carry the confidence from Las Vegas to this week’s tournament.

Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – The best player in this range looking at this season and last season. He’s the only golfer averaging over 1 stroke per round in that time frame in this range. The only golfer gaining strokes in all 4 categories.

Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Finished with a flurry at Summit Club – Shot the round of the day with a 61 (-11) on Sunday. Only lost 1.5 strokes putting last week.

 

$8K Range

Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – Had third top 16 in his last 5 starts after finishing 14th at the CJ Cup last week.

Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – When he goes well he hits his irons well and putts well which is a dangerous combination. This is why you often see the volatile nature of Lanto.

Adam Shenk  (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – By far bentgrass is his best putting surface.

  • Three straight events in which he has gained strokes on approach.
  • 8 of last 9 events he has gained strokes with the putter

 

$7K Range

Harry Higgs  (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – played well at summit club gaining 4 strokes on approach

Takumi Kanaya  (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – Seasoned amateur golfer with several wins on the Japanese Tour.

 

$6K Range

Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – coming off a 14th place finish at Shriners.

  • He’s not a great putter but he is almost a 0 putter on bent
  • Gained strokes on approach on Shriners

Sung Kang  (Salary: DraftKings – $6.3K) – I’m not a huge Sung Kang fan but I think he’s mispriced. His last 5 events were pretty strong where he’s been positive on approach in all of them and gained a lot of strokes putting in last 3 events

 

Players who find success in no-cut events: Last week Rory McIlroy was #1 when we ran this model

  • Xander Schauffele (1.33 strokes gained per round n=120 rounds)
  • Sebastian Munoz (1.08 strokes gained per round n=40 rounds)
  • Lanto Griffin (0.94 strokes gained per round n=32 rounds)
  • Erik van Rooyen (0.94 strokes gained per round n=32 rounds)

 

Monday’s Custom Model for ZOZO Championship

  • Last 16 rounds
  • Driving Distance: 15%
  • Off-The-Tee: 10%
  • Approach: 25%
  • Birdie or Better: 25%
  • Par 4 Scoring: 25%

Top Players

  1. Jhonatthan Vegas
  2. Will Zalatoris
  3. Si Woo Kim
  4. Joaquin Niemann
  5. Emiliano Grillo
  6. Cameron Tringale
  7. Erik Van Rooyen
  8. Maverick McNealy
  9. Carlos Ortiz
  10. Xander Schauffele

My thoughts on this Custom Model: Pretty volatile group of golfers but I think that’s good for the ZOZO Championship.

Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.

Good luck this week!

CJ Cup @ Summit 2021 | Optimal Lineup

CJ Cup @ Summit 2021 | Optimal Lineup

CJ Cup @ Summit Optimal Lineup

The optimal lineup on DraftKings for the CJ Cup cost $49,000 and scored 819.50 points.

Rory McIlroy ($10,100 & 159.0 points)

McIlroy leaned on his driver and putter en route to victory at The Summit Club. He was second in the field in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and he led the field in Strokes Gained Putting. This is his second win of 2021 and the 20th PGA TOUR victory of his career.

Collin Morikawa ($10,800 & 145.5 points)

Morikawa ended with an eagle on 18 to highlight a splendid round of 62 on Sunday. It was well documented that the Summit Club is Morikawa’s home course and he certain played like it this week. There was a three hole stretch that he played at +4 on Friday, which is certainly something he will rue as he finished one stroke behind McIlroy.

Keith Mitchell ($6,200 & 130.5 points)

Mitchell got off to a hot start, playing his first 36 holes at 19-under par. He ran into trouble midway through his Saturday round, but rebounded with a solid 67 on Sunday to earn himself a T3.

Aaron Wise ($7,400 & 129.5 points)

The prolific fantasy scorer has done it again, this time thanks to 24 birdies and an eagle. His T5 finish marks his fourth consecutive Top 26 finish on TOUR and back-to-back Top 10s in Las Vegas. He continues to putt well, gaining 1.17 strokes with the putter, unlocking the rest of his game.

Rickie Fowler ($6,400 & 127.5 points)

Fowler entered Sunday with a two-shot lead, but he couldn’t muster enough birdies on Sunday — shooting a 71 and finishing T3. The good news for Fowler is that he was dynamite with his driver, gaining more strokes off-the-tee than anyone else in the field.

Adam Scott ($8,100 & 127.5 points)

Scott’s week was highlighted by the seven hole stretch to end his round on Friday, where he played those holes in 8-under par. He actually made seven consecutive “3”s with two of them counting as eagles. He finished with a bogey-free 69 on Sunday.

Offers


$5,000 Free Bet
Claim Offer


$600 Free Bet
Claim Offer


$250 Deposit Match
Claim Offer

CJ Cup @ Summit Club 2021 | RunGood RunDown

CJ Cup @ Summit Club 2021 | RunGood RunDown

CJ Cup @ Summit

Stats, Trends & Things You Don’t Need To Know

Course: The Summit Club
Par 72 – 7,431 Yards
Bentgrass Greens

There’s a First Time For Everything

The Summit Club will be making its debut on the PGA TOUR and let me tell you… it’ll be special. I have a media credential for this week so I’ve been on the grounds already. Here’s the short of it:

  • Generous off-the-tee
  • Greens and surrounding areas are easy
  • Looks harder than it is

If you’d like the in-depth report, including photos, check out this Twitter thread.

The Real King of No Cut Events

For years, we’ve crowned Justin Thomas “The King of No Cut Events” since 10 of his 14 PGA TOUR victories have come in events without a cut. However, if you look at all no-cut events since 2010, it’s not Justin Thomas who has gained the most strokes per round…

They’re Real & They’re Spectacular

The greens at Summit Club are sizable, checking in at 6,580 square feet on average. That would be in the top 33% of green sizes on the TOUR. With large greens, three-putting becomes more prevalent. Here are the best putters on large, bentgrass greens (dating back to 2010).

That Can’t Happen Again, Right?

Here are some things that can’t happen again… right?

  • Viktor Hovland lost 8.91 strokes around-the-green last week. The worst performance of his career and the third worst performance of anyone in the last five seasons. On average, Hovland is much closer to a neutral player, losing 0.15 strokes around-the-green per round.
  • Harris English lost 5.96 strokes putting (in only two rounds!!) last week. That’s the worst two-round performance of his career. English, on average, gains 0.44 strokes putting per round.
  • Marc Leishman has gained a total of 14.62 strokes putting in the last two events. In his 278 measured tournaments, the last two weeks rank as his 5th and 8th best putting performances of his career.

Aaron Learned How To Putt

Aaron Wise, who ranked 174th on TOUR in putting last season, has figured out his new broomstick. He’s gained a total of 5.42 strokes putting over his last five events, which is a big deal! Prior to this stretch, Wise has lost strokes in 11 of his last 14 measured events AND lost at least 4 strokes in six of those. REFERENCE!!

You Won’t Want To Miss …

Live Chat (3pm ET) Wednesday (LINK)
Jock MKT Power Hour (8:15pm ET) Wednesday (LINK)

Giddy Up & Good Luck
Rick

Offers


$5,000 Free Bet
Claim Offer


$600 Free Bet
Claim Offer


$250 Deposit Match
Claim Offer

Sanderson Farms Championship 2022

Course: Country Club of Jackson
Par 72 – 7,461 Yards
Bermudagrass Greens
Has hosted this event since 2014

The Ceiling is the Roof

Identifying a golfer’s ceiling is critical for a variety of reasons, with outright betting or showdown lineups being near the top of the list. I’ve written about the absolute insane ceiling of Sam Burns, but I wanted to illustrate the golfers in this field who are having “ceiling rounds” most frequently. Here’s highest rate of rounds gaining at least three strokes on the field (min. 40 rounds).

Long Par-72s

CC of Jackson checks in at 7,461 yards making it a fairly long par-72. There are only 24 other courses in the database (back to 2010) that have played at least 7,400 yards as a par-72. Here are the best players, per round on those courses:

  1. Will Zalatoris +1.83
  2. Charley Hoffman +1.33
  3. Sungjae Im +1.28
  4. Alex Smalley +1.16 (10 rounds)
  5. Brandon Wu +1.13 (14 rounds)
  6. Brandt Snedeker +1.08
  7. Sergio Garcia +0.97

Mr. Consistent

Corey Conners is seemingly “Mr. Consistent” on the PGA TOUR. He’s a Top 20 machine, but he’s even more valuable in fantasy formats. He has gained DraftKings points on the field in 23 of his last 28 events. There’s no other player in the field who can boast this “above average” consistency.

Bryson & The Long Drive

Bryson DeChambeau is currently competing in the Long Drive World Championships in Mesquite, NV. I have been covering the event and asked Bryson about his experience this week. He’s advanced to Day 2 and you can see his comments by clicking below.

Varner on the Verge?

Harold Varner III has had a handful of close calls in his career and it appears he’s trending towards contention once again. His last seven PGA TOUR starts have ended with (5) Top 16 finishes. Even more impressive, he’s doing it with a killer combination of iron play and putting — something that few of his peers can boast. Here are the best approach players in the Last 24 rounds … notice how few are also putting well.

Good Luck!
Rick