The American Express | Stats, Trends & Things You Don’t Need To Know

Courses: Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
Rotation:
R1) Stadium | R2) La Quinta | R3) Nicklaus
R1) La Quinta | R2) Nicklaus | R3) Stadium
R1) Nicklaus | R2) Stadium | R3) La Quinta
54-Hole Cut, then all remaining golfers finish on Stadium Course

Different Courses, Different Days

The whole course rotation thing is always a little weird. You have 144 golfers spread out over three different courses, playing at the same time and we really only know who’s actually winning after three rounds. It’s unique for the viewers and even more unique for the players. This is one of three PGA TOUR stops that feature either a two or three course rotation. Here are the best players in those events:

Truly Boom Or Bust

I tweeted this out, but it’s too good not to include here.

Rickie Has Been Better Than You Remember

I get it, (2) Top 10 finishes in the last 39 events isn’t great for the 5-time TOUR winner. However, we are starting to see signs of life. In his last 11 starts alone, he has a T8 at the PGA Championship, a T11 at the Memorial and battled Rory in Vegas before finishing T3 at the CJ Cup. Those starts really improve his Weighted Strokes Gained numbers and over the last 50 rounds, he’s actually the 12th best player in this field.

PIVOT! … To Matthew Wolff

There still appears to be hesitancy in rostering Wolff for DFS purposes. There are only two golfers priced $9,000+ in this field that have been owned, on average, under 10% for the last year. One is Seamus Power (8.2% average ownership) and the other is Wolff (8.8%).

Even during his resurgence in the fall, with four straight Top 17 finishes, his ownership never got higher than 15.2%. Over those four starts he gained a total of 210 fantasy points on the field. Massive.

Easy Does It!

2020 was the last time we saw all three courses in action and they played super easy. All three ranked in the top six of easiest courses on the schedule for that year. Here are the golfers who are best on the easiest courses.

1. Patrick Cantlay +1.94
2. Jon Rahm +1.83
3. Jason Day +1.36
4. Alex Noren +1.18
5. Sungjae Im +1.17

Putting Poppers

This might be the nerdiest thing I’ve ever done. Over and over again, the industry (myself included) tells you that putting is volatile. From day-to-day or week-to-week and it’s true. The idea is to find great ball-strikers and hope they putt well. The problem is that sometimes the bad putters just NEVER PUTT WELL! So I went on a quest to find the best Putting Popper — the golfer who actually does putt well occasionally.

I narrowed it down to the Top 100 players in my current wStrokes Gained Power Rankings. I then took the 20 worst putters and analyzed their last 100 rounds. I counted a “POP!” as a golfer gaining one standard deviation more than their baseline. Hang with me here… This is important. You can’t really use the same benchmark for every golfer, so I used their own mean and their own standard deviation to determine if the round was a POP! for them. For example, Patrick Cantlay would need to gain 2.17 strokes putting for it to be considered a POP while Luke List would only need to gain 1.12 strokes putting.

When I was done with all that silliness, I determined the Ultimate Popping Popper to be… DOUG GHIM!

Despite being a poor putter, Ghim popped with the flat-stick in 19.23% of his rounds. Tony Finau, on the other hand, only popped in 12.99% of his rounds. That a huge difference! The Top 5:

1. Doug Ghim 19.23%
2. Shane Lowry 18.18%
3. Collin Morikawa 17.81%
4. Aaron Wise 17.65%
5. Bubba Watson 17.20%

I realize not all of these guys are playing this week, but I couldn’t resist posting.

If you like nerdy golf stuff like this, consider subscribing to my website (RickRunGood.com) and my YouTube Channel.

Good Luck
Rick

Course: Waialae Country Club
Par 70 – 7,044 Yards
Bermudagrass Greens

Steady Eddy

The “Hawaii Open” has been played at Waialae for what seems like a million years. In realty, it’s only been 57 years but that still remains as one of the longest standing tournament/course combinations on the schedule. It’s in the top handful of courses where history is very “sticky”, meaning that players often find success year-over-year. Let’s start simply with the best players at Waialae since 2008:

Out Of The Gate

Who doesn’t love a First Round Leader? Why wait 72 holes to cash your ticket when you can do it in 18? When considering FRL wagers, there’s a lot of factors and a lot of luck involved. The primary way to determine a good FRL is to find the golfers who play well in R1. Here’s the best R1 players since Jan. 1, 2020:

1. Stephen Jaeger +1.72 (across PGA and KFT)

2. Greyson Sigg +1.56 (across PGA and KFT)

3. Chris Kirk +1.50

4. Russell Henley +1.46

5. Chad Ramey +1.46 (across PGA and KFT)

This tells part of the story, but not really the whole thing. Yes, we want golfers who play well in R1 but to find value, we want golfers who play better than usual in R1. So I fired up the ole spreadsheet to get you the golfers who play better in R1 than their average in rounds 2-4.

(Keegan was 11th, btw — legendary FRL)

Seriously The Last Call

If you want to play in my One & Done, today is the last day to enter and pay. As of last check, there’s about 493 paid entries. Below is the link to all the information to sign-up and a possible payout structure. Obviously the structure will change when entries are finalized. Don’t be the person who emails me Friday afternoon trying to get in 🙂

Information and Sign-Up Link:
https://bit.ly/3e3oTak

The Chosen One

There is one golfer in this field in which all of the following is true…

• Best in wStrokes Gained Last 12 Rounds

• Best in wStrokes Gained Last 24 Rounds

• Best in wStrokes Gained Last 36 Rounds

• Best in wStrokes Gained Last 48 Rounds

• Best in wStrokes Gained Last 100 Rounds

• Best in wStrokes Gained Putting Last 50 Rounds

• Best in wStrokes Gained Putting Last 100 Rounds

• Has Won This Event Before

• Set PGA Tournament Scoring Record Last Week

• Has a Mullet

That’s Cam Smith for those of you who are stumped.

All The Content You Can Imagine

I’ve been busy this week, here’s the (hopefully definitive list with links):

• RickRunGood DFS Preview

• DFS Preview with Pat Mayo

• First Cut Podcast DFS Preview

• OddsChecker Betting Preview with Geoff Fienberg

• Tuesday Scramble with Andy Lack

• First Cut Podcast Mega Preview

• Tuesday Twitter Space: Sony Open Bets, One & Done

• RickRunGood Live Chat

• Wednesday Twitter Space: Sony Open Bets, Matchups, One & Done

• Jock MKT Power Hour

Distance Is Not a Pre-Requisite

Distance is always an advantage, but sometimes it’s required. Not here at Waialae. Of the 40 courses on the TOUR schedule this season, driving distance is ranked 31st in correlation to success. Here are the best golfers on courses ranked 31-40, when distance is not a requirement, since 2008:

1. Webb Simpson +1.41

2. Jim Furyk +1.31

3. Charles Howell III +1.18

4. Matt Kuchar +1.15

5. Emiliano Grillo +1.04

Same factors but last two years:

1. Webb Simpson +1.79

2. Abraham Ancer +1.42

3. Corey Conners +1.23

4. Kevin Na +1.13

5. Seamus Power +1.08

If You Like This Stuff…

Please consider subscribing to my data website, RickRunGood.com and my YouTube Channel. Thanks so much for the support.

Rick

Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par 73 – 7,596 Yards
Bermudagrass Greens

Everyone But Rory

Forty different golfers won on TOUR last season and earned a ticket to this event. A jarring 39 of them have chosen to show up, all except Rory McIlroy. We are headed for a 516 Strength of Field, making it the second-best field in the last decade and twice as good as the 2020 edition. Here are this week’s best players in “Strong Fields” (over 500 SOF):

1. Jon Rahm +1.61
2. Patrick Cantlay +1.36
3. Justin Thomas +1.35
4. Brooks Koepka +1.22
5. Xander Schauffele +1.21

NOTE: Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau are the only other golfers gaining at least one stroke per round.

The Weights Matter!

Earlier this week, I released my new “Weighted Strokes Gained” (wSG) metrics on RickRunGood.com. It’s a calculation that has been two years in the making that factors in Strength of Field (amongst other things) to better define the Strokes Gained Metric.

We inherently know that gaining two strokes at the US Open is more impressive than gaining two strokes at the Bermuda Championship, but now I can quantify it. Here are the best players in the field, for the last 50 rounds, in Weighted Strokes Gained:

Daniel Berger Is Better Than You Think

2022 is shaping up to be the Year of the Berger. When we think about elite players, we generally start with approach play since it’s such a big separator of talent. The Top 5 Approach players in this field over the last 100 rounds:

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Justin Thomas
3. Daniel Berger
4. Hideki Matsuyama
5. Xander Schauffele

He’s better than Hideki! Right behind JT and Morikawa! I could have given you 100 guesses and you wouldn’t have gotten that right.

When you go back to the wSG numbers, it doesn’t take long to find his name either. Of players in this field, over last 50 rounds; only Rahm, Cantlay and DeChambeau have been better.

That means he’s not only elite at an elite skill-set but he’s contending in the best fields. Get ready for a year of strait vibin’ all the way to the pay window.

The Bermuda Dilemma

Hat tip to my buddy Sia Nejad for pointing this out to me…

Sungjae Im, during his career, has been phenomenal on bermudagrass greens. Statistically, that’s his best surface and he’s gained about 0.37 strokes putter per round on them. That number alone would make him the 6th best putter in this field on Bermuda. So what’s the problem?

Well, over his last eight starts on the surface, he’s been horrendous. He’s lost a total of 13.17 strokes to the field in those eight starts. Is eight bad starts the outlier? Or does he get back to normal this week? Let me know what you think about it, tweet me @RickRunGood.

Tuesday Scramble

The brand new LIVE show, The Scramble, had it’s first episode this week. Joined by Andy Lack, we discussed the Curious Case of Xander Schauffele, played “Bet It or Forget It” and much more. This show is every Tuesday and Friday at 12pm ET on the RickRunGood YouTube Channel.

WE WANT MORE!

Okay, sheesh… relax! I’ll give you more (all times Eastern):

Wednesday: Live Chat (3pm), Twitter Space (7pm) & Jock MKT Power Hour (8:15pm)
Friday: Scramble (12pm)
Saturday: Twitter Space (9pm)

See you then
Rick