by EPattersonFS | Sep 12, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Sadly, the end is near as we have reached the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Football season is in full force, but for you golf grinders out there, I appreciate your commitment to finishing the season strong!
The BMW Championship is on the schedule this week, played at Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois. Conway Farms is a 7,200 yard Par 71 that hosted this event in 2013 and 2015. If you glance at the leaderboards from those two years, you will see similar scores at the top, but completely different styles of golfers. In 2013, Conway Farms played as accuracy style course, with Zach Johnson leading the way, beating the likes of Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker and Luke Donald. In 2015, Jason Day took it down with Berger, Rory and DJ hot on his tail. Shoutout to Ryan Baroff (@RBaroff427) for this info tip, but in 2015, Conway Farms got rained on heavily, giving an edge to the bombers. I expect this season to play closer to the 2013 leaderboard, making me lean towards accuracy and stronger approach players.
With all that said, let’s look at some stats. First, Strokes Gained: Approach will carry the heaviest weight. Give me the guys who are knocking it close more often for 72 guaranteed holes. That’s right – this week is a no-cut event so birdie makers are king. That’s why Birdie or Better Percentage is my second highest weighted stat. No-cut allows us to gamble a bit more and have some volatility in our lineups. I’ll take a few bogeys with birdie upside over a guy like Bill Haas who is out there playing it safe. A few other stats I am sprinkling in is Par 3 and 4 Scoring Average and Strokes Gained: Putting. Par 3s this week will offer a few holes for golfers to differentiate themselves and score while others just make pars. The Par 5s are pretty much unreachable in two by most, so I’m less concerned than usual. Finally, the Bent grass greens at Conway will offer pure putting conditions giving everyone a bump, but also give the better putters a better chance from distance.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Jordan Spieth – $11,800
Jordan Spieth is going to win one of the next two weeks, so may as well load up now and not miss the boat. Spieth has two runner up finishes so far in the playoffs, and could arguably have two wins if it weren’t for an unfair playoff hole and the Justin Thomas buzzsaw. Conway Farms seems like a perfect fit for Spieth. His lack of distance won’t matter as much and he’ll have the chance to roll in a ton of birds. He also has two respectable top 16 finishes at this course. One more thing, Spieth ranks 1st in weighted star model. Okay, that should be enough, Jordan Spieth is an absolute must play.
Paul Casey – $9,200
When will this run end? Definitely not this week. Paul Casey is playing incredible golf and it is mind boggling he does not have a win. Casey had four top 5s in six events, the other two being a T11 at the U.S. open and a T13 at The Open. Every facet of his game is dialled in and he is priced $1,000 cheaper than he should be. There is no reason to believe Casey’s ball striking game won’t correlate well to Conway Farms. Lock him into your cash game and enjoy another top 10 finish.
Henrik Stenson – $8,900
Henrik Stenson is on quite the run himself, although not as impressive as Casey’s, impressive nonetheless. Since his MC at the U.S. Open, he has six top 20s in seven events, including a win at the Wyndham Championship. He ranks inside the top six of all the stats I am looking at over the past 12 rounds, lead by his incredible birdie percentage and par 4 scoring. Stenson also has a T10 under his belt at Conway Farms in 2015. Even though that year lent itself to bombers succeeding, we all know he isn’t that style of player. Stenson has all the tools to contend this week and I fully expect him to be there come Sunday.
Louis Oosthuizen – $8,800
Priced right below Stenson is my favorite GPP play of the week, Louis Oosthuizen. He is flying under the radar in the touting world, with only three tags on FanShareSports.com. Over his past 12 rounds, Louis ranks 8th in the field in SG:App, 9th in SG on Par 4s and 14th in SG: Putting. I’m shocked to see him generating as little buzz as he is, despite his two top 10s in his last three events. Conway Farms seems like a perfect setup for his style of game, and at a projected less than 10% ownership, makes for an outstanding tournament option.
Hudson Swafford – $7,000
With the lowest priced golfer set at $6,900 this week, it is crucial to find some low priced guys in order to jam in Spieth. Hudson Swafford is that guy this week and will be in a ton of my lineups. He ranks 25th in my stat model and really turned a corner last time out at the Dell Tech Championships. He gained 6.1 strokes on approach shots in Boston on his way to a T13 finish. It is slim pickings at the bottom of the DraftKings pricing this week, but Swafford is one guy I feel very comfortable with in about 30% of lineups.
BMW Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jon Rahm – $10,500
If it weren’t for Spieth, it would obvious that the player who is knocking on the door the hardest is Jon Rahm. He has a 3rd and 4th place finish so far in the playoffs and yet only has 12 tags on FanShareSports. It’s true that his biggest weapon won’t be as big of a factor as it usually is, however Rahm has been getting it done with the flat stick as of late. He leads the field in SG:Putting over his past 12 rounds, and did gain 6.1 strokes on approach shots two events ago. His last two events cannot be ignored and another win for Rahm could very well be in the cards.
Jason Dufner – $7,800
Finding low owned plays with upside this week will be crucial. Jason Dufner is one of those golfers. He only has two tags on FanShareSports at the moment, compared to Na and Leishman who both have over 11. Dufner didn’t fair the best at the Dell Tech, but his short game really let him down, losing 5.9 strokes around the green. I do not expect that to carry over to the BMW, as that was his worst around the green performance in five years. Dufner is a pure accuracy golfer, who depends on his approach game to score. A strong bounce back is well within the range of outcomes for Dufner this week, and his ownership in GPPs could fall below 5%.
Ryan Moore – $7,400
Ryan Moore was a very popular pick two weeks ago at the Dell Tech. He withdrew after a terrible first round and now people have moved on. Moore only has two tags on FanShareSports, even with his run of solid form and course history. Moore came T11 at Conway Farms in 2013, the event I believe will be the most similar to this year. In his past 12 rounds, not counting the Dell Tech, Moore ranks 2nd in the field in SG:APP, and 17th in SG on Par 3s. Like Dufner, Moore could very well be around 5% owned and show the form we were all hoping for two weeks ago.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Rory McIlroy – $9,400
There is no way in the world Rory will make one of my rosters this week. He is clearly injured and there is no reason why he should be playing out the rest of the season. At the Dell Tech, Rory was only $9,800 and missed the cut of a field of only 100. I highly doubt this extra week off would have healed his ailing back/rib injury that he has been dealing with all season. Don’t let the $9,400 price tag entice you – Rory is a trap this week and is probably the most likely to withdraw.
Sergio Garcia – $8,700
There is something up with Sergio Garcia’s game at the moment that is forcing me to steer clear of him this week. His lack of top 20s recently is alarming, and over the past three events he has played, he has lost 3.6 shots on approaches. Typically, Garcia is flawless tee to green. His price tag doesn’t allow us to take on the risk he presents right now either. If he was in the low $8K range, I’d be more intrigued, but I am finding it way too easy to find a few extra bucks and spend up for Oosthuizen or Stenson priced right above him.
Charley Hoffman – $7,600
Early signs are pointing towards Charley Hoffman being a popular pick this week at the BMW Championship. He has had an outstanding, consistent season, not having missed a cut since the RBC Heritage. However, last time out at was the first time Charley has lost strokes on the field since his last missed cut. Combine that with his less than impressive course history, T53 in 2015, 68th in 2013, and that creates some cause for concern. There are some other intriguing options in the $7K range that may offer some more upside at this point in time – Leishman, Schwartzel, Berger to name a few. Since there is no cut this week, aiming for guys trending towards a top 5 or top 10 finish is where you want to go in GPPs.
Chez Reavie –Â $7,500
Chez Reavie has been a sneaky play lately, making cuts and having a reasonable price tag. However, red flags have popped up when considering his strokes gained stats from the Dell Tech. He did make the cut, but he lost nine strokes tee to green. His putter was his saving grace two weeks ago, a facet of his game that cannot be relied upon. If Reavie continues to lose strokes in the ball striking categories, he could find himself in 70th place at the end of the week, in other words, DFL.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Hideki Matsuyama – $9,900
It’s now been two weeks in a row where Hideki has disappointed. Missing the cut at the Northern Trust and a ho-hum T23 at the Dell Tech have certainly shifted attention away from him. The motto I have lived by in the past, one that has been successful. Is there a cut? No. Is Hideki playing? Yes. Play Hideki. In his last five no cut events, Matsuyama has three wins and a runner up. Incredible. At $9,900 and four guaranteed rounds, Hideki is definitely worth going overweight on. His ball striking will eventually lift him to the top of the leaderboard.
Kevin Chappell – $8,400
Two weeks ago Kevin Chappell was everyone’s darling, racking up 37 tags on FanShareSports. His T35 at the Dell Tech has clearly left DFSers yearning for more as he only has four tags heading into the BMW Championship. Over his past 12 rounds, he still ranks inside the top 10 in SG:T2G at 15th in birdie percentage, which should translate real well at Conway Farms. Chappell falls in a dead range in the DraftKings pricing, which will help keep his ownership below 10% making him a perfect bounce back candidate.
Tony Finau – $7,800
For the last few events, Tony Finau has seemed like an obvious mispriced due to his recent form. In his past three events, he has finished T44, T54 and T65, three subpar results for a golfer who was garnering a ton of ownership. After a stretch of poor golf, DraftKings decides now is a great time to raise his price, which will further deter people from using him this week. He is not that far removed from a run of very consistent golf. If you have been standing by Finau for his past few events, don’t jump ship when now we have arrived at the best time to roster him in GPP formats.
Thanks for reading the BMW Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Sep 9, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Dustin Johnson, will head to Lake Forest, IL to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system —
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win compared to DraftKings salary.
DraftKings Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
by EPattersonFS | Aug 30, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Welcome to the second week of the FedEx Cup Playoffs! If the next three events come close to what the Northern Trust provided, we are in for a treat. The battle between DJ and Spieth is something golf fans have been dying for all season long.
The Dell Technologies Championship is the second leg of the playoffs and hosted at TPC Boston. This course has hosted this event for years, but was redesigned in 2007, limiting some of the course history we can draw from. A completely different contrast from last week at Glen Oaks where we had no course history at all. TPC Boston is a 7,300 yard Par 71, with three Par 5s, two of which should be reachable by most. This track is the easiest course in the playoff circuit, with the winning score typically eclipsing -15. The fairways at TPC Boston are wide, with some of the easiest to hit greens on tour. That does lend itself to a lot of long putts, making three putts a cause for concern. However, this week is all about ball striking, with the two stats I am looking at the heaviest being Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Strokes Gained Approach. Birdie or Better Percentage will also carry a lot of weight due to the scoring potential TPC Boston offers. Par 5 Scoring Average and Bogey Avoidance will also be factored into the stat model this week.
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $12,000
What a performance. Not much else can be said about the way Dustin Johnson won the Northern Trust Open. His drive on first playoff hole spewed confidence and an attitude we saw with DJ right before Augusta. In his post round interview, DJ said he feels like he is finally back where he was in April – that is a scary thought for the rest of the field. His ownership will be high so you better shove all in if you want to jump aboard the second of back to back wins. This is DJ’s FedEx Cup to give away, and I think he has a little birdie in his ear that would really want $10 million dollars….
Jason Day – $9,500
If DJ doesn’t win this week or falls down another set of stairs, Jason Day has the next best shot. It’s been a long time since we saw back to back impressive results from Day. He has gained strokes in all categories over the past two events, something he hasn’t done since 2015. He has always had an incredible all around game and I think this is the spot where he is going to break through. His price on DraftKings is extremely affordable and will likely be one of the highest owned golfer’s this week.
Paul Casey – $8,900
Paul Casey is turning into a rich man’s Matt Kuchar. Except instead of top 20s, Casey gets you top 5s and is the same price. Casey has three top 5s in his past six events, and five straight top 15s. It’s like every event he flips on cruise control and always ends up on the final page of the leaderboard. Sure, he never wins any of these events but he continues to put himself in great positions to pay off his DraftKings price tag. Casey came second at this event last season, and I will not be shocked if he finds himself in that exact same position this year.
Adam Scott – $7,900
Adam Scott is back in action and DraftKings is pricing him as if he’s taken the last couple of years off. $7,900 is insane for one of the best cut makers, hell, golfers in the world. He took some time off after the PGA as his wife recently gave birth to the couple’s second child. Now, Scott returns with #NappyFactor fully engaged and ready play his way into the next couple of playoff events. Scott needs a good showing this week at the Dell to remain in the playoff picture. I think he easily gets it with a top 10 this week and moves on to Chicago.
Patrick Cantlay – $7,200
Ready to eat some $7K chalk? That’s exactly what Patrick Cantlay is this week and with good reason. He put on a tee to green clinic last week at the Northern Trust, gaining 10.8 shots. He did lose 2.9 on the green, keeping him outside of the top 5. Cantlay has had an interesting year after taking a lot of the season off to help mitigate a future back injury. With a good showing at the PGA and last week at the Northern Trust, his tee to green game will vault him back into the Sunday picture at TPC Boston.
Marc Leishman- $6,900
We struck out last week with Marc Leishman missing the cut on the number. It was a tough pill to swallow but DraftKings makes it easy to forgive when the decreased Leishman’s price by $1,500. That seems like a drastic over correction to one off week. Last week was Leishman’s third missed cut in the past 12 months. I feel very comfortable that he will find his putting stroke this week after losing 3.7 strokes on the green last week. He also gained 4.8 shots on approaches at the Northern Trust, which will carry over quite nicely to TPC Boston.
Dell Technologies Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Jon Rahm – $10,600
How in the world does Jon Rahm only have three tags on FanShareSports? He finished third last week at the Northern Trust Open, jumped up to the 5th ranked golfer in the world and is only $10,600. All of the attention is going back to Spieth and DJ because of what they did last week. Rahm is flying under the radar in a week where the hype should be off the charts! He gained 6.1 strokes on approach shots last week while only gaining 1.8 off the tee. You’d expect that his off the tee game will bounce back this week and the wider fairways should help his cause. Rahm could be sub-15% owned this week which will be an easy situation to take advantage of in GPPs.
Brooks Koepka – $8,700
Another elite golfer with barely any tags on FanShareSports is Brooks Koepka. He has only been mentioned four times this week after his T49 last week at the Northern Trust Open. Koepka lost 4.8 shots around the green at Glen Oaks, a challenge that TPC Boston simply does not present. Koepka has been known to pop when least expected and this could be the week for that. He has a legitimate chance of winning the FedEx Cup if he can pull of a win within the next three events. His best chance might be here at the Dell Tech Championship, where is Par 5 scoring ability will become extremely important.
Gary Woodland – $8,000
Speaking of Par 5 scoring, Gary Woodland is another guy who could dominate these Par 5s when most golfers can’t. Woodland only has three tags on FanShareSports. He missed the cut last week and saw his price increase $1,000. Usually that is not a recipe for high ownership. Gary has finished T15 and T12 here the past two seasons, so TPC Boston is clearly a course that fits his eye. I do not expect his ownership to exceed 10%, especially with Justin Rose and Adam Scott priced right next to him.
Charl Schwartzel – $7,500
Charl Schwartzel had 17 mentions last week on FanShareSports, came T29, and now he has one. Were that many people pissed off of a top 30 from a golfer who was priced below $7K? Sure it’s not an amazing result, but it shouldn’t have killed the buzz as much as it has. Schwartzel is one of many golfers in the $7K range who will be overlooked as people build stars and scrubs lineups. If Charl can get his putter rolling just a bit and break his three event streak of losing strokes on the green, he has a chance to be in a late pairing on Sunday.
Brendan Steele – $6,900
Brendan Steele has had a season of two storylines. At the beginning of the year, he was a staple in a lot of cash lineups because he seemed to never miss a cut. Now, he has missed four of his last five cuts, but it has mainly been because of his putter. He has gained strokes both off the tee and on approaches in his last three events. Steele has made fours straight cuts at this event – giving up that he can break this recent run of poor form. Steele has only one tag on FanShareSports and has the upside you are looking for in a low owned GPP punt.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Rory McIlroy – $9,800
It sucks that we have to fade Rory, but right now it’s the only play. Two weeks ago Rory stated that we might not see him until next season because of an injury. It was extremely odd that he played last week at the Northern Trust Open, and his T34 finish suggests something is still lingering in Rory’s back. He lost 3.8 strokes on approach shots, making that three straight events of lost strokes in that category. SG:APP is my heaviest weighted stat and Rory showing no signs of improving his approach game. Add on the injury scare/potential withdraw, and I will go elsewhere in the $9K range.
Sergio Garcia – $8,400
When you think of ball striking, there are very few names that will pop into your head before Sergio Garcia. His entire career has been based around his ball striking, Lately however, it has been his approach game that is off and led him to a missed cut at the PGA Championship. In his past 12 rounds, Garcia ranks 69th in SG:APP and 68th in SG:Par 5s, two stats that should impact a player’s finish. I don’t see this being the week Garcia finds his form and his price should inflate his ownership to warrant fading him.
Russell Henley – $7,600
Russell Henley may draw some attention this week, solely on the fact that he was the first round leader at the Northern Trust Open. However, his stats in his past 12 rounds have been less than impressive. He ranks 54th in SG:OTT and 72nd in SG:APP, both huge red flags. Even though he came T2 at TPC Boston in 2014, he has missed the cut his last two trips here. Considering only around 30 golfers get cut at this event, missing back to back cuts is not the course history I am looking for.
Phil Mickelson – $7,500
Time to pick on Lefty once again. If you’ve been paying attention to golf over the past couple of months, you’ll know Mickelson has lost his game. If for some reason you haven’t been keeping up and think Mickelson at $7,500 is a fantastic deal – stop. Phil sucks right now and can’t be used on DraftKings. I pointed this out on Twitter – Phil’s betting odds are 125/1 right now. I’m guessing the last time he was this big of a long shot was over 20 years ago. Stay away from Lefty.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Hideki Matsuyama – $10,100
Hideki’s finish last week was certainly not the result we were looking for out of the highest priced golfer. In hindsight, it was a serious let down spot for Matsuyama following two intense battles in his previous two events. Now after his rare MC and a price decrease, Hideki is poised to bounce back on a track that should fit his eye. He has improved his finish each of the past three years at TPC Boston, coming T15 last season. He only has 16 tags on FanShareSports, so going overweight on him shouldn’t be difficult.
Brian Harman – $7,400
At the Northern Trust Open, Brian Harman gained some attention and a reasonable 14 tags on FanShareSports. He then on went on to miss the cut and is now being ignored by the industry, having his tag count drop to five. Not much has changed from this point last week. Harman lost 2.6 strokes around the green at Glen Oaks, something he shouldn’t have to deal with at TPC Boston. He was in the green for both SG:OTT and SG:APP, will be much lower owned than last week and his priced just above Patrick Cantlay who should be extremely chalky this week.
Russell Knox – $7,100
Knox has been somewhat of a yo-yo lately, with two missed cuts in three weeks, but a 5th place finish at the WGC Bridgestone four events ago. Last week at Glen Oaks wasn’t pretty, as Knox lost 4.1 strokes on the greens as wasn’t much better tee to green. With that said, Knox is returning to a course he has found success at the past three seasons. He has three top 30 results and back to back top 15s. Knox won’t have any ownership on him this week (three tags on FanShareSports) even with his recent spurts of solid form. Knox will find his way into about 10% of my lineups this week which will be plenty to be overweight.
Francesco Molinari – $6,900
The Italian Stallion let a lot of people down last week with a terrible performance and a trunk slam on Friday. His putter let him down at the Northern Trust, which is what carried him to a T2 at the PGA Championship. I expect some positive regression from Molinari’s putter this week, which some combine well with his elite tee to green game as of late. Even though he doesn’t bomb it, Molinari ranks 10th in SG:OTT over the past 12 rounds. He should hit every fairway this week and find himself with tons of birdie opportunities.
Thanks for reading the Dell Technologies Championship preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Aug 28, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Rory McIlroy, will head back to Norton, MA to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system — NOW WITH SORTABLE STATS, you choose the stats you want to see!
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win compared to DraftKings salary.
DraftKings Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
by EPattersonFS | Aug 22, 2017 | Daily Preview, Data Center, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA |
What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! Did you jump on Stenson and Na last week?!…while ignorning my fade of Webb? It was an up and down week for sure – tough to be perfect, but it won’t deter me from trying. Also, thanks for sticking around for the FedEx Cup Playoffs, even with football season right around the corner. We still have plenty weeks of golf left with boatloads of cash to be won!
The first stop for the FedEx Cup Playoffs is the Northern Trust Open hosted by Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, New York. This course has never been visited by the PGA Tour, so course history is out the window. What I do know, from cruising through my Twitter feed and reading some course descriptions is that there are comparable courses available. First, Glen Oaks is a 7,300 yard Par 70, that utilizes Poa grass greens and can play extremely hard and fast. Off the tee is important, but being long and in the rough won’t kill you. The greens will be very difficult to hit if approaches are coming in from a long distance out of the rough. This is why I am putting an emphasis on hitting fairways. Due to the difficult to hit greens, around the green/scrambling will also come into play quite a bit. A couple of courses that have drawn comparisons to Glen Oaks are Riviera, Oakmont and Bethpage Black. It’s worth looking into recent events played at those courses, Genesis Open, 2016 U.S. Open and the 2012, 2016 Barclays.
For stats, keeping it pretty basic this week. Looking at recent form and course fit a little heavier than normal.
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Par 4 Scoring Average
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Putting – Poa
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
Staples
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Dustin Johnson – $10,800
With some of the course comparisons Glen Oaks is drawing this week, Dustin Johnson seems like the perfect fit. Riviera and Oakmont are both courses DJ has won at in the past two years. His price tag is also extremely low, considering he is still the #1 ranked player in the world. Johnson showed some life at the PGA Championship with a T13, pointing his game in the right direction leading into the playoffs. His discounted price, course fit and trending form make him a lock for me across all formats.
Henrik Stenson – $9,800
Henrik Stenson showed up last week at the Wyndham and flat out beat the rest of the competition like he was suppose to do. Ollie made a nice run, but Stenson’s hot putter helped me hold off any threats. Rounding into his incredible recent form right before the FedEx Cup playoffs is huge for Stenson, someone who has won the 10 million dollar price before. He now has three straight top 17 finishes and has always been known as one of the streakiest golfers in the world. All facets of his game are on right now and I won’t be shocked to see Stenson take down one of these playoff events. Why not make it back to back?
Paul Casey – $9,000
Even though he doesn’t win, Paul Casey loves to get out of the gates hot and wind up inside the top 15 in some way. It sucks to see him get so close so many times, and you have to think is time is coming soon, but if he continues to churn out top fives regularly, that will do just fine for DK purposes. Over his past 24 events, Casey ranks first in SG:APP, SG: Par 4s, and 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. At $9,000 he is an extremely safe and reliable cash game cornerstone to build your lineup around.
Charley Hoffman – $7,900
Charley Hoffman has lingered around the top of leaderboards all season long and you have to think his time to break through is coming. The FedEx Cup has seen some unlikley winners in the past, and Hoffman seems to fit that mold of golfer who can string four great tournaments together and win the FedEx Cup. Over his last 24 rounds, Hoffman ranks 5th in SG: Par 4s and 13 in SG:OTT. If he can hit these greens and avoid tricky up and downs this week, Hoffman will be in contention once again.
Tony Finau – $7,300
DraftKings hates Tony Finau, as this is not the first time his price tag has been well below what it should be. There isn’t even a need to rhyme off all of Finau’s recent results (they are really good) to help prove he is a great play this week, his price does all the talking. His betting odds suggest he should be priced in the high $7K or low $8K range, not priced down beside scrubs like Scott Stallings and Camilo Villegas. Ownership on Finau could eclipse 30%, and I am willing to double that.
Chez Reavie – $6,700
If you need a punt play below the $7K range to fill out a cash game lineup, look no further than Chez Reavie. He has made eight straight cuts and in doing so, has put himself near the top of a lot of stat categories. In his last 24 rounds, Reavie is inside the top 17 in SG:APP, SG: Par 4s, Fairways Gained and bogey avoidance. His accuracy off the tee will be huge because he isn’t the longest hitter. He should have more control approach these greens than guys fighting it out of the rough all week. He is a safe bet for a made cut, and at $6,700, what more can you really ask for.
Northern Trust Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Perfect Pivots
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Rickie Fowler – $11,300
For some odd reason, Rickie Fowler only has 15 tags on FanShareSports, the second fewest out of anyone priced above $9K. This might not be a direct relation to what his ownership will be come Thursday, but it does make you raise an eyebrow. This is the highest we have seen Fowler priced, from what I can remember, in a field that contained all of the world’s top players. Maybe that is keep his mentions down. Whatever it may be, it seems silly that Fowler could get overlooked this week even though he is putting together an extremely consistent season. I wouldn’t be shocked if he makes a run at winning the FedEx Cup, with it all starting this week.
Marc Leishman – $8,500
In a crowded $8K range with players popular plays at the top including Rahm, Kuchar and Reed, Marc Leishman is getting very attention this week despite setting up well for this course. His six tags on FanShareSports makes the fact that he ranks 8th in my weighted model even more intriguing. He enters the Northern Trust with three top 15s in his last four events, two of those coming in majors. He scores well on Par 3s and 4s and is excellent around the green. Don’t go to sleep on the Aussie this week.
Kevin Kisner – $8,000
Kevin Kisner has one tag on FanShareSports. ONE! To think he was in the final pairing of a major just two weeks ago and has completely fallen off the radar is mind boggling. Last week at the Wyndham he was $11,300, was heavily owned and finished T42 in an obvious let down spot. Perhaps people think he is exhausted from having played three weeks straight? I’ll give them than, but from what I can tell, Kisner is a grinder and wants to win each and every week. At $8,000 and likely to see next to no ownership, what a buying opportunity we have.
Jamie Lovemark – $7,400
Since Tony Finau will be chalk, looking elsewhere for GPPs in the mid $7K range is definitely an option. Jamie Lovemark has been playing some very consistent golf recently, with three straight top 35s, including a 3rd at the Greenbrier. He has the 8th best off the tee game over his past 12 rounds in the field, combined with the 8th best around the green game. Being from the west coast, he is familiar with Poa greens and could play to his advantage.
Branden Grace – $6,900
Alright, isn’t Branden Grace someone that always gets talked about in these strong fields because he has the ability to grind with the best of them? He frequently contends in big time events, and we all are tempted to roster him when he is priced in the mid $8K range. Now at $6,900 (that price is absurd) he only has three tags on FanShareSports. He sits 90th in FedEx Cup points, so he needs a strong showing this week to make it to next week. He is three events removed from a T6 at the Open and is one of the best scramblers in the field. It makes no sense to see a golfer of Grace’s caliber drop $1,300 and get zero buzz.
Automatic Fades
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Justin Thomas – $9,400
Is there a more inconsistent elite golfer in the world than Justin Thomas? Nope. That’s exactly why I find it tough to roster him in a spot where his price tag is up and his ownership will be inflated because of his recent win at the PGA. After a couple of good starts around the U.S. Open, he rattled off three straight missed cuts. He has as many missed cuts this season as he does top 10s. Boom or bust is his game and with a higher than normal ownership, rolling the dice is not worth it.
Phil Mickelson – $7,900
Lefty, what’s happening man?! After not missing a cut all season, he has now missed two of his last three cuts, and came T39 in a no cut event. Seems like a direct correlation with his old caddie Bones leaving the bag. Until Phil shows that he can find some form with his brother telling him the yardages, there is no way that he should be making your his way onto any of your rosters.
Robert Garrigus – $7,600
I’ve been backing Robert Garrigus for a the last month or so – he’s been dialled in and finding his way to the top of leaderboards. But for $7,600 in a field loaded from top to bottom, Garrigus just does not have the game to get it done. He is one of the worst putters in this field in general, but he ranks 108th in the field in SGP on Poa. Don’t put your faith in Garrigus and his two foot tall putter.
Adam Hadwin – $7,300
This one is painful – but fellow Canadian Adam Hadwin has lost the form he once showed at the beginning of the season. Hadwin has one top 50 in his last nine events. That top 50 was a T5 at the WGC Bridgestone, but clearly it was a flash in the pan that may have been driven by Hadwin having no fear of a cut. I feel a little less patriotic writing this, but just trying to steer the people clear of a potential disaster.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Jon Rahm – $8,900
Jon Rahm has strung together a few disappointing results in a row after his win at the Irish Open. His T58 two weeks ago at Quail Hollow is fresh in people’s minds, as he only has 13 tags on FanShareSports despite his extremely low price tag. We are all well aware of the talent Rahm possesses. His elite off the tee game should give him plenty of short irons into these tough greens and he is one of the best Par 4 scorers in the field
Daniel Berger – $8,500
Hear that noise? Yeah, that noise is the chaos you hear as people try to abandon ship on Daniel Berger. At the PGA, Berger had 64 mentions on FanShareSports and was one of the highest owned golfers in the field. His missed cut ruined a ton of lineups and now with only eight tags on FanShare, the time to buy back in on Berger is now. He has gained the second most strokes on approach shots over his past 12 rounds in this field, despite his recent MC. His price tag will also keep his ownership down – the $8K range will be glossed over in a typical lineup construction this week.
Kyle Stanley – $7,500
Get Kyle Stanley off Bermuda greens right now. Wow, that was bad. Even though Stanley gained over nine strokes in his past two events tee to green, he missed both cuts because he lost 13.5 strokes putting. That is terrible and a change of scenery for Stanley is definitely in order. Even though Poa is still tricky to putt on, anything is better than Bermuda for Stanley at the moment. I trust that Stanley will bounce back this week and let his elite tee to green game shine. Don’t be worried about his recent results like the rest of the DFS golf community is – he has one tag on FanShareSports.
Xander Schauffele – $7,000
Like Berger, Xander Schauffele was heavily owned at the PGA Championship and disappointed big time with his missed cut. Even still, Xander enters his first FedEx Cup playoffs with plenty of solid recent form to keep his momentum going. He followed up his win at the Greenbrier with two respectable showings at the Open and WGC Bridgestone. He has the 16th best T2G game in the field over his past 12 rounds, and is one of the best putters period, in this field. The $7K range usually see spread out ownership, but Xander is someone I am willing to load up on.
Thanks for reading the Northern Trust Open preview article! You can follow me on Twitter @EPattersonFS for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!!
by RickRunGood | Aug 21, 2017 | DraftKings, Fanduel, FantasyDraft, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Patrick Reed, will head to Old Westbury, NY to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system — NOW WITH SORTABLE STATS, you choose the stats you want to see!
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
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