by RickRunGood | Jan 9, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
I think you’re going to want all the Kemba Walker you can handle tonight. Walker is the primary scoring option for the Hornets, resulting in a significant usage rate. A full slate and coming off a dud against San Antonio, expect many owners to overlook Walker. If you forget the SAS game, Walker had scored at least 48 DraftKings points in three of the previous four and was no worse than 41.5 DK points in any of those games. He’s a threat to take 20+ shots on a nightly basis and will fill it up in three categories. Expect the Hornets to get significantly more possessions in a game with Houston that should be fast-paced and high scoring.
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
This price on Bradley Beal is just a bit too low for my taste. This month, Beal is averaging 36.3 DK PPG (four games) and a similar contest like that tonight would be worth 6x value. You should already know that Beal is a minutes monster, but his shot attempts do fluctuate more than I’d like. He’s launched 12, 18, 26 and 19 shots in that same stretch. Despite the volatile attempts, Beal has scored at least 22 real points in each contest, which means he’s got significant upside available to him.
Speaking of upside, don’t sleep on DeMarre Carroll. He’s played 39, 41 and 34 minutes over his last three games and is coming off an explosive 26-8 game for 40.5 DraftKings points. Those games are three of his four most minutes this season, so it looks like Carroll is being unleashed and his salary has yet to catch up. He’s not the sexiest player, but he’s high energy on both ends of the court and he’s willing to contribute on the glass. You won’t find another player in this price range who could push upper 30s in minutes.
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If Trevor Booker cannot suit up, the biggest beneficiary should be Justin Hamilton. Even with Booker in the lineup, Hamilton has turned in three solid games in a row with 32, 20.5 and 27.25 DraftKings points, never playing more than 23 minutes in any game. Hamilton is a very unique player. He’s a seven footer so you know he’s going to snag a few rebounds, but he’s also willing to step back and launch the three ball. He’s taken 12 threes in the last three games and has knocked down seven of them. Keep a close eye on the injury report out of Brooklyn.
I’ll buy on Mason Plumlee tonight against the Lakers. Plumlee is coming off a 46.5 DraftKings point game with an eye popping 8-10-12 line. That’s his second game of at least 44 DraftKings points since last Wednesday! Over his last five games, Plumlee has averaged 36.7 DraftKings points, which is nearly six full points more than his season average, making him one of the hottest players in the league. Plumlee earns a date with the soft Lakers, a team that he dropped a respectable 15-7-5 on just five days ago.
by RickRunGood | Jan 8, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
Interesting to see the ownership between Kyrie Irving and Steph Curry today. Curry is scorching in his last two and should capture plenty of owners tonight against the lowly Kings. On the flipside, it’s Kyrie who’s on an extended run of success. He’s averaging 51.6 DraftKings points over his last eight contests, breaking 60 points on three separate occasions. He’s taking a ton of shots right now, launching 90 (!!) shots in his last four games. That’s plenty of usage to invest, but don’t forget that Irving is a multi-steal threat which provides plenty of upside.
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
The shooting guard position is really tough tonight. I don’t love many options, so it’s worth pointing out that Garrett Temple is playing a lot of minutes for the Kings right now. He’s played 31+ minutes in four of his last five games and is averaging 29.3 MPG over his last 16 contests. His fantasy production has been volatile, but he’s scored 22+ DK points in four of his last seven games. That would be just fine for a guy as this price. Expect a fast paced matchup with GSW tonight.
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Another volatile option, but one that cannot be overlooked, is Aaron Gordon. He’s an athletic freak who can fill up four categories in a hurry. He’s scored 32, 38 and 41 DraftKings points in his last three games thanks to 55 real points, 22 rebounds and 15 assists in the process. I thought his production might take a hit with Evan Fournier returning to the lineup, but that wasn’t the case this week. He’s likely going to be a matchup nightmare with the Lakers tonight.
Zach Randolph proposes an interesting option tonight at the power forward position. He’s coming off a massive 27-11-6 line for 51.25 DraftKings points. He’s unlikely to repeat that performance tonight, but there’s reason to believe he finds success. In two meetings with Utah this season, he’s averaged 30.6 DK PPG in only 22 minutes per contest. He’s played more than 22 minutes in six of his last seven games. This may be an opportunity to buy a player whose minutes are trending upwards, coming off an excellent game and has had success against his opponent tonight.
by RickRunGood | Dec 31, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
Dennis Schroder is cooking right now for Atlanta. He’s scored 37+ DraftKings points in six of his last ten outings. Such a game tonight would be worth 6x value to the Hawks PG. He’s filling up the bucket with real points, but also tacking on a few rebounds and assists. Since his value is so closely tied to real scoring, it makes him more volatile than we would like, but this is a great matchup with San Antonio who ranks in the bottom third of the league against opposing PGs.
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
Keep a close eye on that Miami Heat injury report. If Goran Dragic sits, the play may be Josh Richardson. J-Rich blew up for a 19-8-6-4-2 game and 50 DraftKings points on Friday night. With Dragic sitting out twice this week, Richardson scored 50 and 35.75 DraftKings points. Those games are his first and third best fantasy games of the season. He also added game #4 this week (when Dragic did play). Either way, Richardson is carving out a significant role on this Miami offense, but I would love him if The Dragon doesn’t suit up.
Another opportunity to check the injury report out of San Antonio. Kawhi Leonard sat out Friday night’s game with a stomach virus and reports last night had Kawhi still battling that bug. He’s currently questionable for this game today and if he doesn’t suit it, it’s likely that Jonathon Simmons gets the starting nod once again. Friday was a great game for Simmons who piled in 19 real points, three boards, two assists and added two blocks for a 30.25 DK point game.
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If Leonard does suit up, a pivot to Paul George may be in order. George is quietly scoring a ton of DraftKings points for Indy. He’s scored 48.75 and 42 in his last two and is averaging 41.2 at home this season (four points better than on the road). He feels overlooked because Indy has played some goofy timed games this Holiday season. George and the Pacers haven’t been on all the main slates which could remove the usual recency bias around the industry.
I guess we are still doing this Serge Ibaka thing. He hasn’t cooled this week, scoring 39+ DK points in four of his last five and six of his last nine. His salary just isn’t rising with his production yet. The added value is coming from his increased rebounding numbers this week as he’s eclipsed his season average in again, four of his last five. If you enjoy the home/road splits, Ibaka is four points better on the road this season and gets a date Indy.
by RickRunGood | Dec 28, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
I’m not entirely sure that there is a recipe to slow down Russell Westbrook, but if there is, I think pace is the key. Playing a slower game and limiting opponent possessions can obviously be detrimental to fantasy production. Slow paces have accounted for two of Russell’s worst three games of the season. There are only three games that Westbook has finished outside the top ten in scoring for that day and those games came Utah, Miami and Portland. Portland is a middle of the road team, but Miami is the 7th slowest team and Utah is the absolute slowest. I don’t think that’ a coincidence for Westbrook’s worst games to come against these teams. Tonight, Westbrook will battle the Memphis Grizzlies who are the third slowest team in the league and allow the fewest DraftKings points to opposing PGs. This is a tough spot because Westbrook is essentially matchup proof, but he appears to have limited upside tonight.
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
Seth Curry continues to carve out a nice little role for himself on this Mavericks offense. He’s certainly not afraid to shoot the rock and his minutes can top out near 30. He’s scored at least 21 DK points in six of his last seven which would provide him a 5.1x value base tonight against the Lakers. The Lakers play fast (4th quickest pace) and own the second worst defensive rating in the league. A killer combination that should provide a boost to almost every Maverick.
I don’t think this is sneaky, but hard to argue with what Gordon Hayward is doing right now. He’s coming off a 50.25 DK point game against the Lakers which marks the 6th time in his last 10 that he’s scored at least 41 DraftKings points. There’s no reason why he cannot keep it rolling tonight against Philadelphia. The Sixers are another team that plays fast and allows a lot of points. Hayward tallied 36.75 DK points against them in their first meeting.
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Quick Fun Fact: Dario Saric is averaging 24.1 DK PPG in nine games without Joel Embiid, 17.8 DK PPG in 21 games with him.
I’ve been playing a ton of James Johnson lately and he keeps paying off. A mid-tier salary for a guy who is averaging 32.3 DK PPG in his last four games, playing between 22 and 28 minutes in each contest. He’s making those minutes count, averaging 14.5 real PPG and cleaning up on the glass to the tune of 7.75 RPG. He’s flashed some upside with three games of 31+ DK points in his last ten (with two games of 40+). Charlotte has struggled against forwards this season and Johnson present a unique problem. He takes half his shots at the rim and the other half from beyond the arc. I’m not sure Charlotte has a player who is versatile enough to cover both.
Just a quick note on Rudy Gobert. Great matchup and pace versus Philly tonight with no Joel Embiid. Gobert should have no trouble with Jahlil Okafor who is a miserable defender.
You’re probably going to want to forgive Hassan Whiteside quickly. He laid a dud in 31 minutes against OKC on Tuesday night. His weak 12-8 game produced only 25.5 DK points and left a lot of jaded owners in his wake. Don’t forget that Hassan Whiteside has 14 games of 50+ DraftKings points this season, which is the 8th most in the league. I don’t need to tell you the other guys on the list ahead of him, they are literally the cream of the crop in the NBA (Westbrook, Harden, Davis, etc). Whiteside cooked Charlotte in their only meeting this season, scoring 42.25 DK points in only 26.5 minutes. He has played less minutes than that in only one game this season. If he can re-create that PPM production in 30+ minutes, we are in for a massive night with low ownership.
by RickRunGood | Dec 25, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
Giannis Antetokounmpo would be the most talked about player in the league, if anyone knew how to pronounce his name. This guy is seriously a top five player in the league and some may even say he’s the best. The Freak is averaging 56.3 DraftKings points per game over his last seven outings and is coming off a monster 39-8-6 game against the Wizards. Washington better have a game plan for Giannis because they get him again tonight. There’s no indication that anyone on the Washington roster can contain Antetopounmpo who is $1,600 cheaper than James Harden on DraftKings tonight, with legit PG1 upside.
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
Keep an eye on the Orlando injury report for news on Evan Fournier. He sat out Friday’s game with a heel injury but with a few days of rest, he may be able to suit up tonight. If he does, I’m buying stock. He’s very quietly averaging 34.7 DraftKings PPG over his last seven, with three games of 38+ in that stretch. His value is tied mostly to his real scoring, piling in 21+ points in six of seven but he can contribute in the rebound and assist categories. On paper it’s not an ideal matchup with Memphis, but Fournier is four DK points better at home this season and scored 34 DraftKings points in their only meeting.
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Will Barton also sets up as a GPP play, volatile but explosive. Remember that Barton missed basically half the season but is averaging 15.3 PPG since his return. He’s got significant upside, scoring 27+ in five of his last ten, scoring 35+ in three of those games. This appears to be a favorable matchup with the Clippers who surrendered 35.75 DK points to Barton in their only meeting.
Give me all the Paul Millsap. He’s averaging 40.4 DK PPG over his last five games and 45.25 in his last three games. He’s an incredibly consistent scorer and averages over eight rebounds per game. IT’s rare that you see a big man play as many minutes as Millsap, who has logged at least 38 minutes in five of his last nine games. The Hawks should be well rested, not playing since Friday night and they will battle Minnesota on the second end of a B2B. In their first meeting this season, Millsap cooked Minny for 46.5 DraftKings points.
Myles Turner keeps catching my eye at the center position tonight. He’s scored 39+ DK points in four of eight and 41+ in two of his last three. Certainly inconsistent, but that upside is appealing. He’s a healthy contributor in two categories and has a nose for blocks (11 blocks in L4). The Pacers are the most well rested team in the league and the only team that hasn’t played since Thursday. The Bulls are on the second end of a B2B and are a little soft in the paint. Turner is averaging 34.4 DK PPG in two meetings, in only 24.5 minutes. Turner has played more minutes than that in 10 straight.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to tip-off! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by RickRunGood | Dec 24, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NBA |
It’s finally here! This is what I consider the best day on the NBA slate. Marquee matchups and a full day of basketball with no games overlapping. This feels like a great opportunity to thank everyone for their support since I started the site. I cannot thank you enough for allowing me to do this. I hope everyone has a safe and healthy holiday season. Now, on to basketball!
Today’s Projections | NBA Game Logs | Player Scoring Calendar
What are you going to do? Not play Russell Westbrook on National TV, at home, against the team that allows the most DraftKings points to opposing PGs? Well, if you don’t there are could be some value options in LA tonight. Chris Paul sat out Friday night against Dallas which thrust Raymond Felton into the starting lineup and 34 minutes of action. Despite the time on the court, his fantasy returns were dismal (17.5 DraftKings points. Teammate Austin Rivers was probably the bigger beneficiary in terms of usage. Rivers took 13 shots, which is the highest total of his season. He turned that in 16 real points and 25 DraftKings points. Anyone who earns ~30 minutes against the Lakers is going to be a viable option. The real concern here is that we may not know if CP3 is going to play until very close to tip-off. That tip is at 10:30 EST,a full ten hours after this slate kicks off. Without late-swap you are going to have to take on significant risk to roster ANY Clippers PG.
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We talked a few days ago about the monster minutes that Zach LaVine plays and how he has turned that into a plethora of fantasy points for his owners. LaVine has turned in 35+ DraftKings points in five of his last six and is going off a monster 55 DraftKings point game on Friday. Lavine scored 40 real points against the Kings in that outing and actually gets a $500 decrease in salary today. I’d like LaVine more if Victor Oladipo sits out for the Thunder. Oladipo is currently question after missing the last three games.
Here’s a name I never thought I’d type, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. In the three games since Blake Griffin‘s injury, Mbah a Moute has plated 31+ minutes in two of those games. That’s an obvious substantial increase for a guy who’s averaging 23 MPG this season. Mbah a Moute is usually known as a defensive presence, but he has turned in well rounded stat lines in those two games with heavy minutes. He’s coming off a 5-6-3-2-3 game for 27 DraftKings points and scored 21.25 DK points in the Denver game (31 minutes). He could make for a contrarian play on a short slate.
I’ve loved everything about Kevin Love this season but I am very worried today. I think he will earn a few more shots with J.R. Smith sidelined for the next few months, but this is a really bad matchup for Love. Remember back to the NBA Finals last season when Love was a shell of himself, stifled by the quick and small lineups that the Warriors were able to roll out. Love posted just 8.5 PPG and 6.8 RPG in the six games he played in that series. I certainly don’t think he will be that bad tonight, but I don’t think he has much upside.
Don’t overlook my buddy Al Horford today. The Celtics prized offseason acquisition has scored 40+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games despite only hitting 4 of 22 3PA in that span. That tells me there’s room for improvement on an already solid game. Horford is a walking double-double who can chip in a few other categories. The price is right in a matchup with the team that gives up the second most DraftKings points to opposing centers.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to tip-off! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
