I’m loading up on Spurs tonight against the woeful Cavaliers defense. Cleveland has allowed the most points to opponents since the All Star Break. The last four have been “All-Star Game Level Defense”, surrendering 127, 105, 126 and 120 points to the Wizards, Hornets, Nuggets and Lakers respectively. There’s plenty of great options for the Spurs, but I’ll point out Patty Mills. The Spurs guard has played at least 20 minutes in nine of ten. He’s averaging 23 DraftKings PPG in his last four, which would be worth nearly 6x value tonight. He’s got the ability to dish out assists and knock down threes.
Buddy Hield will always been known as the guy who was traded for DeMarcus Cousins, but his fantasy owners have been thrilled with his play recently. Over his last three, he’s averaged 37.75 DraftKings PPG including 47 points against Golden State on Friday night. Since joining the Kings, he’s taken 10.8 shots per game but has launched 14 per game over his last four.
A few injuries to keep an eye on at the SF position. Carmelo Anthony missed Saturday’s game against the Spurs allowing plenty of opportunity for his teammates. The biggest beneficiaries were Derrick Rose who launched 22 shots and Wily Hernangomez who scored 24 points on 16 shots. Either with all that production, it was Mindaugas Kuzminskas who started and played 36 minutes, scoring 19 real points. If Melo sits, there’s plenty of usage to go around.
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Also a quick note out of Utah with Gordon Hayward questionable. If he can’t go, expect Joe Ingles to get plenty of run. This game is the latest on the slate so hoping we get news before lineup lock.
Anthony Davis went ham for 31 and 15 last night, but I am pumping the brakes on him tonight. That game was against the Nuggets with DeMarcus Cousins out. If Boogie comes back tonight, that should cut into AD’s usage rate. Additionally, playing against the Jazz has been brutal for AD owners this season. In two meetings, Davis has only averaged 41.3 DraftKings PPG against Utah. I am going to be VERY cautious with Davis tonight.
It’s all about Rudy Gobert who is averaging 52.7 DK PPG over his last five. Always a monster on the boards and blocking shots, he’s been an offensive force for the Jazz this week. I don’t think I need to say much here, but remember that Gobert is averaging 43.8 DK PPG in two meetings with New Orleans this season.
Buy low on Kemba Walker, who is coming off the worst game of his season scoring just 13.25 DraftKings points on Wednesday night. Thanks to that game, Kemba’s salary drops to $8,000 which is the cheapest he’s been in nearly a month. Prior to the dud, Walker turned in games of 43 and 54.5 DraftKings in the two games earlier in the week. He’s a beneficiary of home cooking, nearly three points better this season when playing in Charlotte. The Hornets will get a a Wizards team tonight that will be completing the second end of a B2B tonight.
Don’t forget about Paul Zipser who may be the biggest beneficiary from Dwyane Wade‘s season ending injury. In his first opportunity last night, Zipser played 28 minutes and contributed eight points and seven rebounds. I was thrilled to see him take 11 shots which is more opportunity than I expected. Zipser is priced at the minimum and has plenty of incentive to prove his worth on this Chicago team.
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Marvin Williams is another guy coming a really bad game, but I highly suggest you look past that one game. In the four games prior, he averaged 46.25 DK PPG and never scored less than 40 in any contest. He’s a monster on the boards, averaging 14.5 RPG in that four game stretch and he’s shouldering a much larger load on the offensive end.
Interesting pricing on Marc Gasol tonight who gets a discount down to $7,000 after coming off games of 48.5 and 50 DraftKings points. The latter was a 18-10-10 triple-double as he heads into a date with the Spurs this evening. I suspect that matchup will drive Gasol’s ownership down. He’s averaging nearly 16 shots per game over his last 13 games and can contribute in all five categories.
The point guard position looks like it might have a free space with Chris Paul at only $8,800. CP3 scored Philly for 48 DraftKings points then dropped 55 DK points on Utah earlier this week. He followed those up with a fairly dismal game last night and now travels to face the Nuggets. If you know one thing about me, it’s that I love to buy low and invest in a “bounce-back opportunity. The only real concern is that this is the most difficult B2B in the NBA, when you play in Denver on the second half. I don’t have a quantifiable negative impact on that, and I expect Paul to continue his hot run against the team that allows the second most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
I’d only trust him in GPPs, but Tim Hardaway Jr. can fill it up in a hurry. He’s piled in 32+ DraftKings points in five of seven. He’s not afraid to shoot the ball, jacking double digit shots in eight of ten with plenty of attempts from deep. In 31 games since Kyle Korver was traded, Hardaway has averaged 29.9 MPG compared to just 22.1 MPG before then. Obviously his increased opportunity is paying off for fantasy owners.
Wow, that Denver injury report. At last check, Danilo Gallinary, Wilson Chandler and Darrell Arthur have all been ruled out. Kenneth Faried is currently listed as questionable. So who’s left?! Will Barton might be thrust into 30+ minutes of action like he saw on Monday night against the LAkers. That resulted in a 22-6-2-1-1 line for 37.5 DraftKings points. Barton has played well against the Clippers, averaging 36.2 DK PPG in three meetings.
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Even with a decimated front-court, Juancho Hernangomez is no lock for minutes. When he plays extended minutes, he’s basically a one DK point per minute player, but we don’t know if he will play 15 or 30 minutes tonight. He comes with more risk, but hard to completely write-off at only $3,900 on DraftKings.
If you’re looking for a “bounce-back” candidate, consider Paul Millsap. A really disappointing 29 DK points in 40 whopping minutes on Monday night against the Spurs. Combine that with a small price increase and I expect Millsap to be overlooked across the industry. I am willing to quickly forgive as he will battle the Grizzlies tonight. Millsap burned Memphis for 44 DraftKings points just five days ago. Millsap averaged 40 DK PPG at home this season (where he will be tonight) compared to just 35 DK PPG on the road.
Let’s write up two Hernangomez’s in the same article! This time it’s Guillermo Hernangomez who is coming off one of his best games of the season, dropping a 13-16 line on the Pacers for 46.5 DK points. He’s another guy who’s minutes are very volatile. He played 31 against Indy but only 17 on Sunday against the Nets. He dropped a respectable 22 DraftKings points considering the number of minutes, but his court time will likely depend on how hot he gets. A matchup with defensive-disaster Brook Lopez is exactly what Hernangomez needs!
There’s a really interesting dilemma in Houston today with James Harden. The Beard, by his standards, has been sub-par recently. In his last five games, he’s averaging just 55 DraftKings PPG. At his salary today, that number would be a mere 4.6x value. His last two games have returned just 52 and 52.25 DraftKings points and now his salary ticks up. Despite the negatives, it will be hard to avoid him against a Cleveland team that played yesterday and who is allowing the 5th most DraftKings points to opposing PGs. In their only meeting this season, Harden scorched the Cavs for 77.75 DraftKings points. I’m not touching him in cash, but Harden has your massive GPP upside.
Very quietly, Allen Crabbe is producing for the Blazers. He’s taken double digit shots in back-to-back games which tallied 33 and 26 DraftKings points before posting a 14-6 line in 35 minutes last night. He’s going to need to continue his hot stretch to see 25+ minutes but he will have plenty of fantasy opportunities in this game versus the Suns.
With Kevin Love out, Channing Frye has earned an uptick in both minutes and usage, but his results have been sporadic. Looking at his last four games, he’s compiled fantasy totals of 20.5, 32.5, 7.75 and 30.75. Certainly no consistency to hang your hat on, but legit 8x upside at this price. This matchup should benefit Frye who takes the majority of his shots from deep. The Rockets allow the 8th most three pointers to opposing players.
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I’ll point out a few Sixers here because of the interesting situation they are in. Yes, they played yesterday and play again today but let’s look at the situation. An early (12:30 local time) matchup with the Clippers before turning around and playing the latest game on the slate (6:30 pm) tonight against the Lakers. Technically a B2B, but I cannot fathom a more favorable B2B situation when you don’t even have to leave the hotel you’re in and get over 24 hours between start times. I imagine that’s a rare scenario for an NBA team. With all that being said, you can buy a little lower on Robert Covington who scorched Portland for 51 DK points on Thursday then was relatively quiet yesterday. The better matchup is Richaun Holmes who will face the team that allows the most DK PPG to opposing centers and is coming off a monster 24-9 night in 27 minutes.
This feels like an opportunity to buy low on Mike Conley who is coming off a sub-par 23 DraftKings point game on Thursday night. That game was against the Clippers and certainly isn’t the first time that Chris Paul has shut down his point guard counterpart. Prior to that game, Conley scored 40+ DraftKings point in five straight, averaging 46.2 DK PPG in that span. This is easily the most productive stretch of fantasy basketball for Conley who is adept at getting to the free throw line and is being asked to shoulder much of the offense for the Grizzlies right now.
It’s hard to look past Dion Waiters with multiple position eligibility coming off two big games in a row. No one has ever accused Waiters of being afraid to shoot the rock, a task that he had done 40 times in the last two games, including 19 (!!) three point attempts. The concern here is his volatility and lack of consistent minutes. He’s scored 36+ DraftKings points in five of his last ten but has also laid out a few duds along the way. Consider him for GPP upside on this slate.
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This Warriors/Spurs game was circled on my calendar for weeks, but it looks like it’s shaping up to be a snoozer. For the Spurs, Kawhi Leonard will miss the game and Tony Parker is questionable. The Warriors will be resting Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. So where does that leave us? It’s hard to overlook Patrick McCaw who has been earning a big influx in minutes with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. With the other studs out, it’s reasonable to think McCaw sees a big uptick in usage today. Outside of McCaw, I’ll be sprinkling a ton of players on both ends of this game.
What’s up, Wilson Chandler? A great run for the Nuggets forward who scored 64.5 and 34.5 DraftKings points earlier this week and followed that up with 23-8 game last night against the Celtics. Chandler will battle the Kings tonight who was the team he shredded for 64.5 DraftKings points on Monday night. Against Sacramento this season, he’s averaging 39.4 DraftKings PPG in three meetings.
Note that today’s preview is in a Podcast that I recorded with ‘WiseTake’. The entire video is below along with my notes from the session. Keep in my that my notes are simply notes, so I apologize for any grammatical errors.
Jrue Holiday without Boogie! DeMarcus Cousins sitting out is going to open up a lot of opportunity for his teammates. I expect many to flock to Anthony Davis, so Jrue Holiday can be a little sneakier. Remember, in the last four games before Boogie joined the Pelicans, Jrue averaged 45.6 DK PPG. Basically a $1,500 discount since then. He should be able to fall back into that role tonight which could be a legit double-double threat with upside.
I suppose we can’t forget about Cory Joseph. He’s played 33+ minutes in three straight thanks to the absence of Kyle Lowry. That marks four times this season that he’s played that many minutes. In those games he’s averaging 28.9 DK PPG. So while he laid an egg on Monday night, I’m willing to forgive and forget because there’s just going to be so much opportunity for usage with big minutes and the ball constantly in his hands.
Seth Curry is scorching post All-Star Break. He’s scored at least 35 DraftKings points in all three, which is significantly more than his 22.7 season average. The concern here, which is unusual for PGs is that his fantasy scoring is tied to his real point production. On the 24th, he scored 31 real points, but only had one assist, one rebound and one steal. Similar story on Monday with 29 real points, only three assists and one board. The lack of secondary category scoring is a big concern.
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Clearly a product of a small sample size, but Lou Williams is taking nearly four more 3PA per game since joining the Rockets. He’s launched 9.3 deep attempts since being traded. That could certainly be a product of a small sample, but also we know that the Rockets take threes as a historic rate so this shouldn’t be a surprise.
Courtney Lee is playing really well, averaging 32.4 DK PPG over his last three games and logging a lot of minutes. At least 35 minutes in four of last five with signficant upside. Scored 38.75 on Monday and 43 last Thursday. He’s risky, but he CAN be a five category player (okay…maybe four!).
Robert Covington filling it up for Philly. His price is reaching a breaking point, but hard to overlook what he’s capable of. He’s the rare combination of launching threes and getting steals. In the last three games he’s fired 27 threes and swiped 11 steals. Those are the two most valuable categories in all of DFS basketball. Averaging 44.75 DraftKings PPG in his last four and should be getting all the shots he can handle.
Just a quick note on Paul George. I don’t need to tell you that PG13 is an excellent player, but from an ownership perspective, I expect him to be very low owned. Gets ejected a few nights ago which will keep some casual fans away who he might have burnt. Plus in the DK lobby, the Spurs rank as the best defense against SFs. I’d argue this is the position that those ranks matter the least and PG13 dropped 27 real points on them in their only other meeting this season. Lowest price in weeks.
I do think Thabo Sefolosha is interesting. Again, another very high risk guy but the price is hard to ignore. Only $3,700 for a guy who’s now starting. That probably won’t increase his meeting two much, but a sneaky five category player. Scored 27.25 DK points in his mst recent start on Monday. Another such game would be incredibly valuable.
It’s the Dario Saric show right now. 31+ minutes in five straight games, a feat he only accomplished twice in the previous 54 games of the season. That’s leading to big time results for the Croatian. Averaging 19.6 PPG, 11 RPG and nearly four assists per game in the stretch. He’s the hottest player in the NBA in terms of the L7 days.
L7: 42.92 DK PPG
Has scored at least 38 DK points in seven straight.
Clippers are so interesting and hard to really figure out in terms of DFS because they’ve been so shorthanded. Finally they are healthy again which I think makes Blake Griffin the biggest beneficiary. He’s at his best when CP3 gets him the ball early and often. He was dynomite on Sunday in 42 minutes against Charlottes, scoring 43 real points and 69.5 DraftKings points. I just can’t overlook the massive over/under on this game (232.5) so let’s get as much exposure as possible.
Richaun Homes is interesting. Again, lack of depth in Philly frontcourt and if you watch this game, he is HIGH ENERGY on both ends of the court. He’s a willing rebounder and has a nose for blocks. He’s swatted 10 shots in the last three games.
Hassan Whiteside could be logging big time minutes, especially if Willie Reed doesn’t suit up. It’ll be all the minutes he can handle in a great matchup with Philly. No Nerlens and no Embiid is leaving the Sixers incredibly succeptible to interior scorers, so this is a situation that is begging for Whiteside to go off. He’s coming off a monster 19/19 game with the Heat only scoring 89 points. It’s nearly certain that the Heat will have a much higher implied total tonight. (110)
Love the price on Rudy Gobert. Coming off games of 43.5 and 54 DK points and he’s a walking double double. MAssive rebound upside, massive block upside. The Wolves have not been able to handle Gobert this season, with Rudy averaging 43 DK PPG in their two meetings this season.
Another volatile option in Willie Cauley-Stein. You know that he’s now being asked to do a lot without Boogie. He will have his growing pains, but he will also have big opportunity. Matchup with Brookly is about as good as it gets.