NFL Week 11 Preview – DraftKings & Fanduel

by RickRunGood | Nov 17, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL | 0 comments

Welcome to Week 11 of the NFL! We are finally starting to see some usable sample sizes and learning how coaches will be using their players in high leverage situations. Also the BYE weeks add an extra dynamic when it comes to roster construction and recency biases.

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

Who’s Hot

Despite the struggles of the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is scorching hot. He’s scored 93.56 DraftKings points in the last three weeks, which is by far the most by any QB in the league. He’s scored 14 more DraftKings points than the next closest QB which is the same gap from QB2 to QB8 (Jameis Winston). Now he’s a slight underdog in one of the highest total games on the slate. You can sell the Packers as a team, but buy Rodgers as a QB1.

After a few sour weeks in the middle of the season, Stefon Diggs is back to his usual self. He’s piled on 76.2 DraftKings points in the last three weeks, which is the most for any WR in the league. It’s all about volume for Diggs who has earned 13, 14 and 15 targets in the last three weeks. He’s scored 20+ DraftKings points in five of his seven games this season and is priced as WR13 this week on DraftKings.

Listen To Vegas

We’ve talked about this trend before, but it’s back again this week. Over the last two seasons, LeGarrette Blount has been really good in games where the Patriots are heavy favorites. For these purposes, here are all his games since the start of 2015, where the Pats were more than a touchdown favorite. Thanks to the NFL Game Logs, I’ve compiled this:

He’s averaging 18.2 carries and over a touchdown per contest, good for 17.37 DraftKings points. As you can see, in those 10 games, he’s scored 21+ DraftKings points in half. New England is a big 14 point favorite in this game against the Niners who also allow 30% more fantasy points to opposing RBs than the league average.

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Andrew Luck, in high total games, has been a little hit or miss. Over the last two seasons, he’s played in six game with at least a 50 point over/under. He’s averaging 23.97 DraftKings points but he’s posted games of 14.7, 14.2 and 19.4 while flashing the upside with 29, 31 and 35.5 DraftKings points. Literally nothing in-between 19.4 and 29. That volatility has also been a staple in Luck’s 2016 campaign. If you’re going to roster Luck this week, consider him for GPPs:

Cheap Fliers

Russell Shepard has missed the last two games for Tampa Bay due to a hip injury, but he’s been a full participant at practice this week, indicating that he’s a go for Week 11. Shepard was starting to carve out a role for himself in the offense before being injured. In the two games before his injury, he caught 7 of 9 targets for two TDs. That has accounted for 18.7 and 10.4 DraftKings points. The Bucs are very thin at all the pass-catching positions, so I think Shepard could see a decent workload for his price tag. The Bucs are a 7.5 point underdog so expect a lot of passes from Jameis Winston.

This is a deep one, but how about Ladarius Green? The Steelers tight end played his first game of the season last week against the Cowboys. Despite only playing 12 snaps, he saw 4 targets, caught three balls and turned in 30 yards. Obviously not eye-popping numbers, but Green has been practicing fully and with the first team all week. It’s reasonable to think he sees significantly more snaps this week on a high powered offense in the best matchup you could ask for. The Browns allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Oh yeah, and Green is min-priced on DraftKings.

The Go-To Defense

You better believe I will be targeting Jared Goff in his first career start this week. Rookie QBs in general are usually prone to more turnovers and bad decisions. Goff is now going to lace them up for one of the worst offenses in the league against the Dolphins. Miami has turned in 17 and 13 DraftKings points in the last two weeks, thanks to six total INTs and six total sacks.

Injury Report

Kind of a weird situation with Bears RB Jordan Howard denying any injury last week to Tampa Bay. Despite that claim, he showed up on the injury report this week, but has been removed from that list as of Wednesday. Finally, now that he’s “fully healthy”, Howard has admitted that he suffered an Achilles injury in the Week 10 loss to Tampa Bay. Despite all the noise, Howard is no longer on the injury report and should be considered a full-go against the Giants.

We are guessing a lot when it comes to the Seahawks running back situation, but it looks like C.J. Prosise will be the “main man” for at least one more week. Seattle cut Christine Michael and they already stated that Thomas Rawls will be “eased back into action”. I expect Rawls to take away some of the workload, including the goal-line carries, but Prosise should still be a nice PPR option. He hauled in seven catches for 87 yards in addition to his 17 carries in Week 10. Not a great matchup with Philly, but his $4,200 price tag on DraftKings is too good to overlook.

Monday Night Hero

I must be a glutton for punishment, but how about Deandre Hopkins? What a brutal year for Hopkins who is only averaging 12.7 DraftKings PPG this season and hasn’t broken double-digits in any of his last three. So what’s the good news? Well, his targets. Hopkins has still seen 47 targets over the last four weeks. Next, his price tag is only $6,500 which is the lowest it has been all season. Finally, the matchup with Oakland is great! The Raiders allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs and this game has a healthy 46.5 over/under. Whether they can connect or not is a different dilemma, but I expect Brock Osweiler to continue to target Hopkins very heavily.

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NFL Preview, Week 10 – DraftKings & Fanduel

by RickRunGood | Nov 9, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL | 0 comments

I wanted to mix it up this week and step away from a standard write-up. Instead, I am going to use the NFL Game Logs to run analysis on what it takes to finish the week as a Top 15 player. As you can imagine, rostering as many Top 15 guys as possible, is going to win you a lot of money. A Top 15 player is being defined as having the one of the 15 best DraftKings scores on a given week in the NFL. That ends up being 155 different games (with ties) by 103 different player. I hope this helps to start a discussion on roster construction and identifying the best plays. Give me a shout on Twitter and let me know what you think.

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Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position

Studs Help, But Aren’t Necessary

It’s fairly obvious that the better the player, the more often he will finish in the Top 15 in fantasy scoring for that week and we see that in the numbers. Here’s the list of all the players who have finished in the T15 on 3+ occasions:

There are a few potential surprises on that list, but for the most part, it’s exactly who you’d expect. Eight of those 11 players rank inside the T15 of season average. Those eight players are consistently playing up to your expectations, making them better cash game players. For guys like Theo Riddick, T.Y. Hilton and Marcus Mariota, they tend to be a little more volatile. With their season rank being lower, it’s clear that they have had some big games surrounded by sub-par contests. That style would be better for GPPs. Of those three guys, Mariota is the only one who will be playing this week as the Packers will come to Tennessee. He could be a nice GPP target against an injury riddled Packers secondary in a game that is projected to score 49.5 points.

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Unlike basketball, the other end of that list is just as compelling. Football is an extremely volatile game, which means that seemingly random players can explode for a T15 game. There are 24 different players who are ranked outside the top 100 for the season, who have posted a T15 game. Just a few of those names include Dontrelle Inman, Adam Thielen, J.J. Nelson, John Brown and Jeremy Kerley. I encourage you to embrace the volatility, especially at the WR position where a player is only ever a big play away incredible value.

Fun Facts

• The average T15 game is DraftKings 31.2 points and 26.4 Fanduel points.
• The average T15 player salary is $6,105 on DraftKings and $7,218 on Fanduel
• 57% of all T15 games come from players on the home team.
• The New York Giants are the only team in the league to not allow a T15 game against.

Matchups Matter

Oh man, there are some bad defenses in the NFL and they allow a ton of fantasy points. San Francisco and Cleveland top the list, but here are all the teams that have allowed at least seven T15 games:

Remember, this is Week 10 and SF has already has a bye! That means they’ve allowed 11 T15 performances in only eight games. What you’ll notice is that I also added in the team’s rank in terms of how many yards per game they allow. I did this because of the clear correlation between yards allowed and T15 games. SFO and CLE are the two worst teams in the league in yards allowed per game and are also giving up the most T15 games.

This week, the Niners have to face with Arizona Cardinals and running back David Johnson. DJ is almost a certain lock for a T15 game. Indy and Oakland are on BYE this week, so no targets there. The Bills and Jets are interesting because they are middle of the road in yards allowed but giving up a lot of T15 games. That should indicate they are running worse than expectation in number of TDs allowed. I’d expect them to have a better second half in terms of T15 games. Worth noting, there is only ONE team in the league that hasn’t allowed a T15 game and it’s….the New York Giants.

Listen To Vegas

Make sure to consider the Las Vegas over/under when trying to find T15 games. Games with a total of 48 or higher accounted for 38% of all T15 games. That’s notable because only 28% of all NFL games have a total above that mark. For this week, the games currently with a 48+ total are DEN/NO, ATL/PHI, GB/TEN, MIA/SD, SF/ARI, DAL/PIT, SEA/NE.

There is also a strong correlation with games over 50. Such games make up 19% of all T15 games while being only 13% of all games. That would narrow us down to DAL/PIT and maybe ATL/PHI this week. The latter game has a line hovering around 50 depending on where you get it.

Value Guys

I figured these guys would be mostly WRs but I was shocked to see that WRs and RBs are dead even below the $5,000 mark. Each position has racked up 18 T15 games while TEs have only account for six value T15 games. There isn’t a bunch of correlation between any other predicative factors. I’d continue to lean towards guys in high total games if you’re looking for value.

Looking For More?

This is the tip of the iceberg. I use the NFL Game Logs to run all this analysis and there’s much deeper you can dig. If you are a Pro Member, you get the logs updated daily. If you are not a Pro Member yet, you can sign up here.