by RickRunGood | Oct 26, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL |
Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL! We are finally starting to see some usable sample sizes and learning how coaches will be using their players in high leverage situations. Also the BYE weeks add an extra dynamic when it comes to roster construction and recency biases.
Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position
Who’s Hot?
Let’s look at the last three weeks of the season to find some players who are scorching hot right now. Here are the QBs:
Brady, Luck, Mariota, Dalton, Stafford. Wait a minute, one of those is not like the other. That’s right, Marcus Mariota has scored the 3rd most DraftKings points over the last three weeks. He hasn’t cracked 300 yards in any of those games, but has accounted for nine TDs and rushed for 60+ yards in two games. His dual-threat and ability to run the ball increases his ceiling significantly. I don’t love that he’s going to have to play on short rest this Thursday, but the matchup with Jacksonville is one of the best you can ask for. Also, with last week’s game at home as well as this one, there was no travel required for Tennessee.
We have to continue to point out the Patriots running backs. James White and LeGarrette Blount, who rank 8th and 9th in DraftKings points scored in the last three weeks. Two of the other backs ahead of them (Ajayi and Bell) will be on a BYE this week. Blount is getting nearly all the work on the ground as well as the goal line touches while White is a PPR play thanks to his ability to catch the rock. New England enters this game as a solid six point favorite over Buffalo, a team that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
There aren’t too many surprises at the WR position in terms of who is trending upwards. You’re looking at Hilton, Beckham and the Packers WRs. The most interesting option could be Tyrell Williams who has scored 55.5 DraftKings points over the L3, 10th in the league. He tacked on 24 and 25.7 DraftKings points in two of those games and has been a solid option for QB Philip Rivers this season. The matchup with Denver is less than ideal, but the good news is that San Diego should have to throw a ton to stay in this game.
[ess_grid alias=”NFL Packages”]
At tight end, Rob Gronkowski is literally lapping the field in the L3 department. His 70.4 DraftKings points is nearly 25 more than second place (Greg Olsen). In Olsen’s defense, he had a BYE last week and hasn’t scored less than 12.4 DraftKings points in any game this season. Olsen is in “the worst” matchup for TEs, but he’s likely matchup proof, making him a solid GPP play.
Arizona looks like the chalk defense, scoring 36 DraftKings points over the last three weeks (2nd most). The Cards DST can do it all! They’ve forced 2+ fumbles in four of seven, have two interceptions in two of three and are averaging nearly three sacks a game. They will have to battle Carolina who is hoping to spend the BYE week getting right, but the Panthers have surrendered the third most points to opposing defenses.
Target Monsters
When you look at last week’s target numbers, there’s a lot that jumps off the screen. Obviously three Packers in the top five thanks to Aaron Rodgers throwing it 56 times. How about Michael Thomas who saw 14 (!!) targets last week? The Saints rookie is proving to be an electric offensive option for QB Drew Brees. Thomas has scored double digit DraftKings points in all but one game this season (scored 9.6 in the other) and is coming off games of 26 and 18.8 DraftKings points. Week 7 marked the third time in four games that Thomas has seen 9+ targets. It’s not a great matchup with Seattle (noticing a trend here?) but Vegas still has this game listed with a 48 o/u, which is 4th highest on the slate.
Let’s look at the more valuable Redzone Targets. It continues to be the Jack Doyle show this week assuming Dwayne Allen misses another week. Doyle’s five redzone targets were the most for a non-Packer. He converted on four of those, including a TD. The only one he didn’t catch was another likely TD which slipped through his hands. He played 90% of snaps and Andrew Luck looked his way early and often.
Don’t Give Up On Me Just Yet!
I’m not ready to give up on Allen Robinson just yet. He’s having a pretty dismal season, especially compared to his expectations coming into the year. He’s scored just 10.8 DraftKings points combined in the last two games, but I’m still optimistic. The two games prior to those, he amassed 41.2 DraftKings points so his year hasn’t been a complete wash. He still ranks 20th in the league in targets, it’s just been converting on those targets that’s the issue. A date with Tennessee could be just what the doctor ordered.
Another “buy low” candidate is Julian Edelman. He hasn’t found the endzone yet this season, but he’s seen 27 targets in the three games since Tom Brady has returned. We know how good Brady has been this year so it’s only a matter of time before Edelman gets loose. Don’t expect him to continue without a TD for too much longer.
The return of Jay Cutler should benefit Alshon Jeffery more than anyone. In the only full game that Cutler played this season, Alshon scored 17.5 DraftKings points. That also happens to be his highest scoring game of the year. If you want to look back to last season’s matchup with the Vikings, Alshon went nuts for 30.6 DraftKings points thanks to 10 catches, 116 yards and a TD. This is the cheapest I can ever remember Jeffery but after a dismal start, I think the only place he can go…is up!
Matchups Matter
The outlook moving forward for Ty Montgomery is a little murky. He was used last week as a RB, Monty saw nine rushes and converted for 60 yards. He also piled on 10 catches for another 66 yards. The Packers did add Knile Davis to the roster which could remove some backfield opportunity for Montgomery, but it’s a bit too early to tell. It appears that Montgomery will see at least a few rushing attempts but still be involved in the passing game. That passing game has targeted him 25 times in the last two weeks and will go up against the Falcons secondary in the game with the highest total on the board.
I’m buying in on Matt Forte again this week for a few reasons. First off, in games that the Jets are either favored or just slight underdogs, Forte has been awesome. He posted 20.5 DK points, 33.9 DK points and 33.4 DK points with lines of -1, +1 and -2.5 respectively. The games that Forte has struggled have been as bigger dogs and the offense being forced to throw the ball. The Jets should be favored this week against the Cleveland Browns who are in the bottom third of the league in stopping fantasy RBs. Finally, the Jets are leaning on Forte for those valuable redzone rushes. Forte ranks 4th in the league with 25 redzone rushes.
Cheap Fliers
Marqise Lee is coming off a career game last week against Oakland. He notched 107 yards on seven catches, for 20.7 DraftKings points. If you’re not buying Allen Robinson bouncing back, then consider Lee. He’s seen at least six targets in five straight games and unlike his teammates, is converting those targets at a very high clip. He’s yet to score a TD which will come soon if he keeps this up.
We live in a world where Matt Asiata is a really good play. Keep a close eye on the injury reports out of Minnesota, because if McKinnon sits, Asiata should see all the workload on the ground. He converted 12 carries for 55 yards last week and has always been a very capable pass catcher. Additionally, he should monopolize all the redzone and goal-line carries.
To gain access to the Pro Tools and research spreadsheets, check out our package options. Some even have a 7-Day Free Trial!
by RickRunGood | Oct 26, 2016 | DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL |
Here are NFL Projections for Week 8! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. This week is now using 2016 data, so the projections are a little volatile. Also, NFL tends to be one of the harder sports to make projections for. The lack of overall data from only 16 games and the overall volatility of the game makes exact projections difficult. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups.
These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.
You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.
Glossary:
2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.
[ess_grid alias=”NFL Packages”]
by RickRunGood | Oct 19, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL |
Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL! We are finally starting to see some usable sample sizes and learning how coaches will be using their players in high leverage situations. Also the BYE weeks add an extra dynamic when it comes to roster construction and recency biases.
Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position
Sunday Surprises
Kenny Britt is in the midst of a surprisingly season with the Rams. Britt exploded for 136 yards on seven catches and two TDs last week at Detroit. While that production is likely the top end of his range, Britt has consistently seen targets from QB
Case Keenum this season. He’s earned at least six targets in all but one game and has turned those into at least 75 receiving yards in four of his last five. Britt will only be on slates that include the London game, which should make him significantly under-owned against the Giants.
How many will remember
Adam Thielen‘s big game in Week 5? After a BYE week, I’d say not many. Thielen benefited from the absence of teammate
Stefon Diggs and posted a seven-catch, 127 yard outing while tacking on a TD for 28.7 DraftKings points. I would like Thielen even more if Diggs
doesn’t suit up for this game, but at this price, he’s flashed enough upside to be on your radar this week.
[ess_grid alias=”NFL Packages”]
Here To Stay
Hunter Henry, welcome to fantasy relevance. He’s actually been relevant for a week or two, but admittedly I was concerned about his ability to maintain production. Henry has now scored 16.1, 16.4 and 20.3 DraftKings points in the last three weeks, all at very reasonable price tags. Henry has been a redzone target of QB Philip Rivers, resulting in TDs in three straight games. My concern is that Henry is just slightly TD dependent as he isn’t racking up a huge volume of catches. I’m willing to forget about both of those issues to unlock the sublime matchup with Atlanta, who allows the second most fantasy points to opposing TEs.
I think Cam Meredith is here to stay. He’s racked up 55.9 DraftKings points over the last two weeks thanks to 27 targets from QB
Brian Hoyer. It’s clear that these two have a connection and Meredith is cashing in 20 receptions over the last two weeks. A Thursday Night date with Green Bay, who allows the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs, should allow him to keep the good times rolling.
Matt Ryan continues to dice up opposing defenses. His 2,075 passing yards this season is nearly 300 more than the next closest QB (
Eli Manning) and he’s lapping the field when it comes to yards per attempt. His 9.88 yards/attempt is 1.7 more than
Philip Rivers. That’s the same difference between Rivers and
Jameis Winston who ranks #28 in the league. He has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in four of six starts this season and he will face the Chargers who rank 26th in the league against QBs at home in Atlanta.
Off The Grid
For a more “off the grid” QB option, consider
Derek Carr. His 227 passing attempts this season is 4th most in the league and he hasn’t throw less than 34 times in any outing this year. The concern with Carr is mostly his yardage totals which are all over the map this season. He’s tallied 319, 299, 249, 199, 317 and 225 in his six games. Despite the seemingly random totals, he’s found a way to score 23+ DraftKings points in four of six. His date with Jacksonville this week is likely his best matchup since Week 1 when he faced the Saints.
Amari Cooper has been flying under the radar just a bit this season since he’s only found the endzone one time. Despite that, he’s scored 24+ DraftKings points in 3 of 6 this season and 30.8 then 25.9 in the last two weeks. It looked like
Michael Crabtree was going to steal targets from Cooper, but with 25 looks in the last two weeks, those rumblings have quieted for the time being. An ideal matchup awaits Cooper and the Raiders as they travel to Jacksonville for Week 7.
Almost every Patriot has benefited from the return of
Tom Brady. Maybe no more than
James White who has hauled in 12 catches over the last two weeks, compared to the 13 he caught in the first four games of the season. It’s also worth noting that White has been eating into
LeGarrette Blount‘s playing time, playing on 39.6% of snaps compared to Blount’s 25.3%. White has earned more snaps than Blount just twice this season and they were…you guessed it, the last two weeks with Tom Brady under center.
Chalk It Up
I’ll be firing up the Denver DST in most formats this week. Despite an underwhelming Thursday night performance against the Chargers in Week 6, they are still the third highest scoring offense in the league over the last three weeks. Now they will have the long week to prepare for QB
Brock Osweiler (who they have an intimate knowledge of) and will be at home for this Monday Night contest. Osweiler is second in the league with eight interceptions and looked miserable for 95% of his Week 6 game against the Colts. He routinely missed passes high, which is a recipe for interceptions. As a 6.5 point dog in a game with a 41.5 point total, the Texans have the lowest projected total on the slate.
We’ve talked about how the Atlanta offense has been rolling, which also includes K
Matt Bryant. Over the last three weeks, Bryant is the second highest scoring kicker in the league behind
Adam Vinatieri. He’s perfect this season, nailing all 12 FGs and 21 XPs this season. This game is posted with a 51 point total, highest on the board. The Falcons should have no problem putting up points at home, averaging 12.5 DK points per game at home this season compared to 9.0 on the road.
Perfect Pivots
Expect MVP-candidate, Matt Ryan, to be heavily owned at home in a dream scenario with SD for $7,200. The pivot off Ryan should be Andrew Luck at $7,000 on DraftKings. Luck offers just as much upside as any QB on the board, despite his offensive line woes. Luck has been sacked more than any QB in the league and under distress on a constant basis. On a positive fantasy note, Luck under pressure is forcing him to rush the ball more often (16 carries the last three weeks). Luck scampered for 53 yards and a rushing TD last week which was a huge boost to his owners. Remember, 40 rushing yards is the equivalent to a passing TD. Vegas has slated this game with a 48 point total, one of the highest of the week.
All the Mike Evans you can eat! I’m not really sure what his ownership will be coming off a BYE and having a “poor” matchup in the DraftKings lobby. Those are two factors that heavily impact ownership. Despite that, Evans is going to be making an appearance in the vast majority of my lineups. He is in the midst of an awesome season (averaging 20.8 DK PPG) and has earned at least 11 targets in each of his last four games. Now teammate Vincent Jackson has been placed on the IR, making it the Mike Evans show.
Cheap Fliers
Assuming Dwayne Allen sits out, Jack Doyle could emerge as a value Tight End option. I’d only trust him in GPPs, but at the min-price ($2,500) on DraftKings, he’s going to be hard to overlook. Doyle snared all four targets last week for 53 yards and a TD. That marked the third game this season that he’s notched at least 12.5 DraftKings points. That 12.5 point milestone would be worth 5x value this week and you imagine that his ceiling would be higher as he will likely see a much larger share of the TE targets.
Jacquizz Rodgers is back in line for a massive workload again this week. Teammate Doug Martin suffered a setback in practice which leaves Rodgers as really the only healthy back on the team. That same scenario led to 30 (!!) carries and five receptions in Week 5 versus Carolina. He will likely be expected to play almost every down this week against San Francisco. Don’t be fooled, Rodgers is not an amazing talent, but you’re investing is sheer volume at this point. I would suspect Rodgers ends the week with the cheapest “Dollar Per Touch” of all players.
To gain access to the Pro Tools and research spreadsheets, check out our package options. Some even have a 7-Day Free Trial!
by RickRunGood | Oct 19, 2016 | DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL |
Here are NFL Projections for Week 7! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. This week is now using 2016 data, so the projections are a little volatile. Also, NFL tends to be one of the harder sports to make projections for. The lack of overall data from only 16 games and the overall volatility of the game makes exact projections difficult. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups.
These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.
You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.
Glossary:
2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.
[ess_grid alias=”NFL Packages”]
by RickRunGood | Oct 11, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL |
Welcome to Week 6 of the NFL! We are finally starting to see some usable sample sizes and learning how coaches will be using their players in high leverage situations. Also the BYE weeks add an extra dynamic when it comes to roster construction and recency biases.
Projections | Game Logs | Scoring Calendar | Points Allowed by Position
Coming Off The Bye
His numbers aren’t eye-popping but I am intrigued by the volume that Mark Ingram is seeing right now. In a game against the Chargers two weeks ago, the Saints trailed for the vast majority of the contest which normally would force teams to abandon the running game. Ingram still handled 18 carries, with no one threatening his touches on the ground. Believe it or not, he was actually the Saints leading receiving with six catches for 49 yards. That’s 24 touches on a potent offense. I certainly don’t expect Ingram to lead the team in catches very often, but it’s nice seeing him getting those looks. He has now tallied 14 catches over the last three games.
Are we quietly seeing the resurgence of Jimmy Graham? Remember when he was a prolific TE option every single week? Well he’s not earned 17 targets over the last two weeks, converting them for 12 catches and 213 yards. Russell Wilson should be very close to full health after the BYE week and the Hawks get the ideal matchup with the Falcons.
[ess_grid alias=”NFL Packages”]
Under The Radar
Do you know who has scored the most DraftKings points over the last three weeks? Any guesses? Julio Jones jumps to mind, maybe David Johnson. It’s actually T.Y. Hilton with 87.7 DraftKings points in the last three weeks. That’s interesting because for the most part, Hilton is flying under the radar as being an elite fantasy option, but his stats say different. Hilton is clearly QB Andrew Luck‘s favorite receiver and he has been targeted at least 10 times in every game this season.
Sticking with the “under the radar” theme, Carlos Hyde has continued to produce each and every week this season. Hyde is the 6th highest scoring RB in the last three weeks with 66.8 DraftKings points and has been a touchdown monster this season. With six TDs already, it’s certainly possible we see some regression, but Hyde has carried the ball 20+ times in three of five games this season. Hyde, along with LeGarrette Blount, Lamar Miller and Ezekiel Elliott are the only backs in the league to carry 20+ times in at least three games.
The tight end position is incredibly volatile, so finding some stability can be difficult. Since Brian Hoyer took over as QB for the Bears, Zach Miller is the highest scoring tight end in the league. He’s hauled in 18 catches and three TDs in that span. Miller has been the biggest beneficiary of Hoyer taking over the starting role but also a depleted wide receiving corp. Kevin White is on the IR and Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal are banged up. Keep a close eye on the injury reports as the week progresses but Miller should continue to find himself in a plus situation.
Redzone Opportunities
Obviously redzone targets a high-value opportunities for players since touchdowns can be so volatile. The more redzone opportunites, the more chances for scoring (obviously). What’s interesting is that there are two RBs that amongst the league leaders in RZ targets. Those two are DeMarco Murray and Theo Riddick. they rank 5th and 6th respectively in RZ targets. Think about that. There are only four RBs in the top 40 of RZ targets, so to have Murray and Riddick gaining that many is impressive. Murray should be in the best chance to keep good times rolling as the Titans will battle the lowly Browns this week.
The Falcons offense is creating a ton of redzone opportunities. The interesting part is that, both RBs (Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) are benefitting! Freeman has seen 18 redzone carries (4th in the league) to Coleman’s 12 (11th most). Atlanta leads the league in redzone rushing attempts. Now the concern is that the Falcons will battle the Seahawks defense this week, but keep them in mind moving forward. After this week, they have a plus rushing matchup on a near-weekly basis.
Matchups Matter
There’s a lot to like about Lamar Miller, but it just hasn’t come together for him yet this season. The Pros: he’s earned 101 carries this season (4th in the league). He hasn’t scored a TD yet, which could also be a con, but it’s highly unlikely that he hasn’t scored yet. In fact, his 101 carries are the most in NFL history through five games WITHOUT scoring a TD. The cons: he laid an egg last week with only eight carries against a tough Minnesota defense. This week he earns the Colts, at home, who have allowed the 5th most points to opposing RBs.
As much as I love Jordan Reed, this might not be the week for the big fella. Reed has been the main target for QB Kirk Cousins, but he has yet to tally more than 73 yards in any game. His production comes from finding the endzone. The problem with him this week is that he’s going to be facing the Eagles who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs this season. They’ve also only allowed three passing TDs this season, the third fewest in the league.
Remember when the Bills started 0-2 and everyone wrote them off? Since then, they are the highest scoring defense in the league, tallying 54 DraftKings points in the last three weeks. They are doing everything right from a defensive standpoint, piling up the sacks, interceptions and have scored a defensive TD in three of the last four. Now they are going to get the Niners who probably have the worst QB situation in the league, traveling from the West Coast to play the early game in Buffalo which is notoriously difficult transition for West Coast teams.
Monday Night Hero
I’m actually going a little under the radar here and suggestion the Cardinals defense as a premier option on slates that include Monday Night. The Jets offense has surrendered the most points in the league to opposing defenses at 13 DraftKings points per game. The Jets have 13 total turnovers (10 INT, 3 FUM), which is second most in the league. And of course, it’s the Cardinals who lead the league in takeaways. This is a chalky defense, but ownership will be vastly different across the separate slates.
Kick Your Way To A Win
The league’s best kicker, is not-surpringly, Adam Vinatieri. He’s 43 years old and continues to perform at any incredibly high level. He’s in the midst of a perfect season, nailing all 13 FGs and 12 XPs. Not only has he flashed his massive upside with 23 fantasy points last week (highest total for a kicker this season), he’s also tallied the most games of 10+ fantasy points (4). The Colts should have no problem moving the ball on Houston this week and Vinatieri should be right at home on the newly-turfed NRG Stadium.
Cheap Fliers
Keep a close eye on the Panthers injury report pertaining to Jonathan Stewart. If Stewart misses another game, consider Cameron Artis-Payne whose $3,700 price tag came out before he carried 18 times for 85 yards and two TDs on Monday Night. The matchup could not be any better with the Saints who have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season.
How about consideration for Brandon LaFell checking in at only $3,200 on DraftKings? There will be value for any receiver who claims the #2 WR spot in Cincy and LaFell might be the front-runner after 11 massive targets last week, hauling in 8 catches for 68 yards and two TDs. He travels to battle New England in a game that the Bengals will likely have to throw a ton to compete.
I am such a glutton for punishment, but what about Golden Tate? It’s been a miserable start and huge letdown for a guy who many expected to have a massive season. Tate has been outshined by teammate Marvin Jones who leads the league in receiving yards. Tate has floundered around, never racking up more than 41 receiving yards in any game? So what’s to like about him this week? Well, first, the value is really good. He’s checking in at only $4,400 on DraftKings this week, a huge drop from the $7,300 price tag he had in Week 1. The Lions are still going to throw the ball every chance they get, currently throwing on 63% of their plays. Finally, Detroit is making an effort to get Tate going. They rushed with him three times against Philadelphia and ran plays specifically designed for him, which can only be a position moving forward.
To gain access to the Pro Tools and research spreadsheets, check out our package options. Some even have a 7-Day Free Trial!
by RickRunGood | Oct 11, 2016 | DraftKings, Fanduel, NFL, NFL Pro Tools |
Here are NFL Projections for Week 6! Below you will find both the online and downloadable versions of my NFL Projections. This week is now using 2016 data, so the projections are a little volatile. Also, NFL tends to be one of the harder sports to make projections for. The lack of overall data from only 16 games and the overall volatility of the game makes exact projections difficult. I would use these to projections to identify value play and those players who are in good matchups.
These projections take will take into account three main factors: recent performance, matchup and Vegas Line. Those three factors lend themselves very well to fantasy scoring.
You can watch me build this spreadsheet here.
Glossary:
2x, 3x, 4x – The amount of fantasy points a player needs to score to reach 2x, 3x and 4x value on his salary.
DVP – The amount of fantasy points a defense allows to that specific position. (1.4 means they allow 1.4x the league average).
TmTot – The projected points a team will score according to the Las Vegas line.
AvgTmTot – The average projected points total for that team according to Las Vegas lines.
%2x, %3x and %4x – The liklihood that a player reaches those value milestones.
Mean – Average fantasy points scored by that player.
StdDev – The mathematical calculation for standard deviation.
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