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Remember: All positional breakdowns are open to the PUBLIC. Here they are:
Welcome to Week 5 Cheat Sheet! This is a feature that will be released every Friday throughout the season. It will be a fluid article (so check back often!) that will encompass everything you need to set your lineups for the NFL. We will go game by game, discussing the most relevant players on each team.
If you are interested in reading last week’s Cheat Sheet, here it is for Week 4.
DraftKings strategy and pricing is front of mind, but these can also help you set your season long lineups. I love action, so we will go in order of Vegas point totals, highest to lowest! Let’s do it!
BYEs: Miami, Minnesota, NY Jets, Carolina
New England (-9) @ Dallas o/u 49.5
Tom Brady ($7,800) is my clear #1 QB. With Rodgers in a difficult matchup with STL, I think his ceiling is capped a bit. Not so much for Brady who has been ridiculous this season averaging 28.5 DraftKings points per game and New England is second in the league in passing attempts per game with 44.3. Brady is in a great matchup versus Dallas who has given up 23 and 25 DraftKings points to opposing QBs in the L2 weeks. Brady also gets an extra week to prepare for this one, so there is little reason to believe he won’t have an outstanding game.
I’ll take a stab at a New England running back and this week feels like a Dion Lewis ($4,800) week. Despite inconsistent carries, Lewis has been outstanding, accounting for 16, 24.8 and 17.7 DraftKings points in the first three games this season. Lewis is clearly the “New Shane Vereen” as he is doing all of the receiving out of the backfield for the Patriots. That makes him incredible valuable in a full point PPR format. I expect to see a heavy dosage of Lewis in Week 5 in a game with the highest o/u on the board.
Julian Edelman ($7,000) is a PPR dream come true. He just snatches up targets and receptions nonstop. Edelman is clearly QB Tom Brady’s favorite target with 44 looks. That’s a 15 more targets than the next closest receiver (Gronkowski). What’s interesting to note is that Edelman and Gronk actually have the same number of redzone targets (7). Despite the same number, Edelman has only converted for one RZ TD. There’s an argument to be made that that number could go up and Edelman’s ceiling is even higher than we may expect.
The Gronk ($7,500) is back! Don’t worry about the matchup with Dallas who has only surrendered the 8th least DraftKings points per game versus Tight Ends. Gronk is matchup proof. He plays for the team who runs the most plays, throws the most passes, is in the highest scoring game of the week and sees a ton of targets. Don’t overthink this one.
The Cowboys running back situation is a little tricky right now. With the season ending injury to Lance Dunbar, someone on this team is going to have to step up and be the pass-catcher for Brandon Weeden who LOVES dumping the ball off to his running backs. My instinct is that both Joseph Randle ($6,000) and Darren McFadden ($3,400) will see an expanded role on passing downs. If that’s true, Randle would become an interesting play moving forward since we will dominate the carries and get a bump with a few extra targets a game. Unfortunately, Randle was in Coach Garrett’s dog house in Week 4 after fumbling and being relegated to the sideline for the 4th quarter. Assuming that punishment was a one-time deal, Randle is the guy you want moving forward. To add even more intrigue to this situation, reports have Christine Michael ($3,000) as potentially getting a longer look and seeing some more snaps. He’s not worth rostering this week, but should be on your radar.
I actually like Cole Beasley ($3,100) as an additional beneficiary to the Lance Dunbar injury. The Cowboys pass catchers are already thin as it is without Dunbar, Dez Bryant and Brice Butler. We mentioned that Brandon Weeden likes to throw the ball underneath and that’s the area of the field that Beasley patrols as he owns the shortest aDOT (average depth of target) in the league at only 2.8 yards per target.
Philadelphia (-4.5) vs New Orleans o/u 49
I am not sure how sneaky he will be after a nice Sunday Night Football performance, but Drew Brees ($7,200) is going to be on my radar this week. I was pleasantly surprised with how he looked coming off an injury and completed a ridiculous 33 of 41 passes. He is going to get the Eagles who have been killed by passing yards this season, surrendering 279 yards per game (9th worst in the league). Brees is probably the best QB that they have faced to this point (Ryan, Romo/Weedon, Fitzpatrick, Cousins) and this game has the second highest total on the board.
A really good sign for Mark Ingram ($6,100) that he was still involved in the passing game despite the return of CJ Spiller. Ingram still handles the bulk of the workload in terms of carries and has now caught 22 balls in the first four games of the season, including six last week. In what should be a fast paced, potential shootout, Ingram becomes a very safe play with high upside.
Speaking of dismal ownership, that’s what you’re going to get from Brandin Cooks ($5,900). A very poor start to the season has the highly-touted WR only averaging 10.4 DraftKings points per game and he has yet to find the endzone. I think we can buy this stock really low this week. Optimistically, Cooks is still the leading target for Drew Brees and the Saints. Brees was extremely effective against the Cowboys last week and if he is going to continue to work underneath with quick-hit passes, Cooks may be a beneficiary of some scripted screens. The matchup with Philadelphia is sublime as they haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed this season. Throw in the fact that this one of the highest projected totals on the board and we could see some fireworks from Cooks.
The Sam Bradford ($6,000) roller coaster continues as his range of outputs this season have been 8.5, 10.8, 18.44 and now 24.2 in Week 4. Bradford looked better throwing the longball and actually hit on four passes over 30 yards. I am still a firm believer that the Saints have the worst secondary in football, which is backed up by the fact that they’ve surrendered the 2nd most DraftKings points to opposing QBs. I know he’s disappointed us before this season, but this is a great matchup, great Vegas line and a great situation for Bradford.
I am licking my chops to get to Jordan Matthews ($6,400). He was basically the only Eagles WR shut out of the endzone last week which is certainly not going to happen often. Matthews dominates all passing and redzone targets for this Eagles offense and he has an incredible matchup with Brandon Browner this week. The following is from Pro Football Focus and I don’t want to copy it verbatim since it’s their premium content (win a subscription here). Long story short, Browner has been miserable at stopping big targets in the slot and it’s a high likelihood that Browner shadows Matthews. If we are ever going to see that big breakout game from Matthews, this feels like the week.
The narrative is strong with Demarco Murray ($6,200). It’s not unheard of to see stars complain about how much they see the ball and then get force-fed the very next week. Are we on the verge of that for Murray, who says he isn’t getting the ball enough? There is no data to back that up, but if you buy the narrative, this is Murray’s week. Unfortunately, I think Chip Kelly marches to his own drum and will continue to go about business as usual instead of trying to keep his stars happy.
Atlanta (-7.5) vs Washington o/u 47.5
The legendary run of Devonta Freeman ($6,300) is going to be tested this week. Freeman has six TDs in his last two games and has won owners a ton of money. He now has to battle the Redskins who have given up the league’s fewest DraftKings points to opposing RBs. I suspect Freeman’s ownership to be through the roof, so I will probably fade him in this tough matchup in GPPs. His situation could get worse if Tevin Coleman suits up for Week 5. Unfortunately, it’s tough to roster a guy who’s price jumps $1,100, is in the worst matchup and whose touches may take a hit.
Are owners going to avoid Julio Jones ($9,200) after his 4 catch, 38 yard performance in Week 4? I certainly hope so. I am buying as much Julio stock as possible. He was simply “gameflowed” out of this matchup. The Falcons got up so much, so quickly on the back of Davonta Freeman, that they did not need to throw the ball. Good luck trying to keep Julio down for two weeks in a row, this time against a bottom third pass defense in the Redskins.
As long as the WAS RB situation is as bad as it is, I actually think Kirk Cousins ($5,300) could provide some value. He’s almost min-priced and the Skins have been relying on a pass heavy attack the last two weeks. A ridiculous 95 pass attempts the last two weeks for Cousins which is certainly worth his price. There will be points scored in this game and Washington should be trailing for the majority of it. that’s a pretty good combination for a guy only costing $5,300.
We’ve talked about this plenty but it’s worth repeating, Pierre Garcon ($5,300) is Cousins favorite target. Garcon’s fantasy numbers are about twice as good with Cousins under center as opposed to any other QB in the last three years. Garcon might be thrusted into heavy opportunity, as there is a high probability that both DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed miss this game. Reed is the second leader target on this team so if he misses action, that leaves a lot of looks up for grabs.
Assuming Reed misses this game, that could open up Jamison Crowder ($3,500) as one of the better value plays. Crowder now has 13 catchers in the last two games while returning 12.5 and 13.5 DraftKings points in those games. I would be sure of Reed’s status before rostering Crowder, but he could be a nice sleeper against a soft Atlanta secondary.
Green Bay (-9) vs St. Louis o/u 46.5
I don’t particularly think that anyone can really mess with Aaron Rodgers ($7,900), but if there is, it might be the St. Louis Rams. A team that has been stingy against QBs this season (4th fewest points allowed) which includes facing Russell Wilson, Carson Palmer and one half of Ben Roethlisberger. This is a team that can get pressure on the QB, already with 17 sacks this season which is second in the league. I certainly don’t think that Rodgers will put up a dud, but maybe his upside is capped.
As long as Davante Adams is sidelined, James Jones ($5,700) should see a big uptick in usage and production. He has 12 receptions in the two games that Adams has missed and has returned his owners 29.9 and 14.8 DraftKings points in those outings. He’s proving to be a dual threat for the Packers. He’s capable of making the big play with at least a 29 yard play in all four games this season. Additionally, he’s been a big time redzone target, catching three TDs on six targets.
Another beneficiary of the Adams injury is Richard Rodgers ($2,900). Also, the Packers other TE Andrew Quarless is sidelined, meaning that Rodgers is the only game in town. He converted 5 catches on 6 targets and even added a TD in Week 4. He’s an interesting, cheap option to get some secondary exposure to one of the best offenses in the league.
I think it’s very clear who the lead RB is in STL and his name is Todd Gurley ($4,300). A massive 19 carries (compared to a total of four for his counterparts) resulted in 146 yards on the ground. The gamescript for this one is not ideal. Vegas seems to believe the Packers will get ahead by a large margin. If that’s the case, the Rams may have to abandon the run. I am willing to take on the risk however, as GB has not been great defending RBs this season.
I don’t love him, but I think Tavon Austin ($4,300) is worth noting. Consistency has been his problem throughout his career, but it was nice to see the Rams involved him heavily in the last two weeks. A total of 11 catches and a big 29.6 DraftKings point day last week. There could be plenty of opportunity for Austin if the Rams have to throw the ball 30+ times in this game.
Indianapolis (-1) @ Houston o/u 45
If Andrew Luck ($7,700) is active for this game, I am willing to roster him. It’s not every day you can get one of the league’s best QBs who many owners will shy away from. The Texans are bottom third in the league when it comes to defending QBs. The Colts are a team that throws the ball a ton which should present plenty of opportunity for Luck. If Luck doesn’t play, I will most likely avoid all Colts players.
Frank Gore ($5,000) has been very difficult to predict this season and I actually think he’s been about as bad as you can expect. Even saying that, he’s still averaging 11.6 DraftKings points per game. He’s had two really bad fumbles in the last three games and basically fumbled away a sure TD without being contacted. Gore is still the lead-back on a high powered team. The Texans are giving up the 7th most DraftKings points to opposing RBs. I think there are better days ahead for Gore.
I can’t figure out the price on DeAndre Hopkins ($7,200) this season. He is averaging 24.5 DraftKings points per game which is fourth amongst Wide Receivers. His price has barely budged off his Week 1 salary of $7,400. It’s actually dipped a tiny bit the last two weeks and is down to $7,200 this week. The Texans are at home against a seriously struggling Colts secondary that has surrendered the 4th most DraftKings points to opposing WRs. Hopkins is a TARGET MONSTER (see below):
Arian Foster ($7,000) might be historically underowned. Causal players are very concerned about Foster’s health and he laid an absolute egg in his first game back against the Falcons. He only had 10 yards on 8 carries. That will drive his ownership down even further. Foster is expected to see a much bigger workload according to reports and he is still one of the best running backs in the game. I am high on Foster this week.
Looking for the deep value of the week? It might be Keith Mumphery ($3,000). With Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington already being ruled out for this game, Mumphery could be starting opposite Deandre Hopkins. That position alone on a team that throws the ball 40+ times a game is valuable.
Kansas City (-9.5) vs. Chicago o/u 45
Jamaal Charles ($7,800) is a freak of nature. He is averaging 24.2 DraftKings points per game and has been awesome every single week. He is getting CHI this week who can be exposed many different ways. What’s exciting about Charles is that he’s always involved in the offense. Are the Chiefs leading? They run Charles. Are they trailing? They throw it to Charles. It’s awesome! I also think he’s priced in a spot where he could be under-owned. He’s on an island where he’s $700 less than Bell but $700 more than the next tier or RBs. I could see a lot of owners paying up for Bell or staying down in the second tier. He could be owned less than normal. Here’s my favorite tweet of the week regarding Charles and his consistency:
Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) is starting to look like the WR we expected when he signed that free agent contract with the Chiefs in the offseason. Two huge games in a row, hauling in 19 catches for 189 yards and 59.9 DraftKings points. He’s added a layer of offense that the Chiefs have not had in a long time, so it only makes sense for KC to continue to feed Maclin. Maclin is intriguing because he can return big outputs without finding the endzone. Only one TD in that large run of points he has had in the L2.
I think Jay Cutler ($5,300) is worth a look this week. In the two games that he has started and finished, he scored 15.1 and 18.24 DraftKings points. That would be a solid 3x value at his current price. Chicago is a massive underdog in this game (9.5 points) which is a great sign for Cutler. He may be required to throw the ball 40 times to try and keep pace. I would like Cutler even more if Alshon Jeffery suits up, adding to his arsenal of receivers. The matchup with KC is sublime, as no team has surrendered more DraftKings points to opposing QBs.
I am hoping that Alshon Jeffery ($6,500) can find a way to suit up for this game. He wasn’t officially ruled out until Sunday of last week so that leaves me a glimmer of hope that he will play against the Chiefs. KC has surrendered the most points to opposing WRs this season and Jeffery is a big time talent. You’d have to believe that he would steal the vast majority of attention from QB Jay Cutler if he were to return and his ownership numbers will be dismal.
I was only 3 weeks early on Eddie Royal ($3,700) who I loved in the preseason. After three poor games, he exploded for 7 catches, 54 yards and a TD versus Oakland. Royal is a big beneficiary of Jay Cutler being healthy. Royal will get the added bonus of facing Ron Parker who has been terrible at defending slot receivers this season.
San Diego (-3) vs Pittsburgh o/u 45
Last week’s top scoring QB, Philip Rivers ($6,200) only gets a small price increase in Week 5. Rivers is another volatile player but when he’s good, he’s great! Both home games that Rivers has played this season, he’s scored 24 and 29 DraftKings points. The Steelers pass defense has been, you guessed it, volatile. They were either the worst or second worst pass defense in the first two weeks, then followed that up with holding opposing QBs to single digits in their last two. A combination of two boom or bust situations make Rivers a great GPP play.
Keep a close eye on the status of Stevie Johnson and Malcolm Floyd. Both left the game last week with injuries and their status is uncertain for Week 5. If they both miss, that should open a ton of targets for all SD pass-catchers including Keenan Allen ($7,200) who already leads the team in targets. Allen is one of the most volatile WRs on the market, but his upside is unquestioned as he has topped 34 DraftKings points twice already in this young season.
Don’t forget that Antonio Gates ($4,200) is back this week, because many of your opponents will. Ladarius Green did nothing to steal any playing time from Gates who will step in as the TE1 on this team. Don’t forget that Gates had 10 games of 10+ points last season and is one of Philip Rivers favorite targets. This game could easily turn into a shootout with Pittsburgh and the Steelers are the third worst at defending the TE this season.
Le’Veon Bell ($8,500) picked up right where he left off last season. Now averaging 26.2 DraftKings points in his two games this season, the highest average of any RB. The price is steep, but Bell has the two best factors in his favor this week. The first is opportunity. He has 26 and 29 touches in his first two weeks and without Big Ben, they are going to rely heavily on Bell for the foreseeable future. Next, the matchup with San Diego is literally as good as it gets. No team in the league has surrendered more DraftKings points to opposing RBs. If you need another reason (you shouldn’t), the Steelers are getting an extra long week to prepare, coming off a Thursday Night game and playing on Monday Night. This is literally the best running back in the best matchup.
I’d be lying if I told you I wasn’t worried about Antonio Brown ($8,700). It’s nothing against Brown, I just don’t believe in Mike Vick’s ability to get him the ball consistently. A subpar Week 4 outing with Vick under center resulted in a 5 catch 42 yard game that even went to OT. It was clear that the Steelers were much more conservative with Vick which will hurt Brown’s value. Finally, the Chargers have allowed the fewest points to opposing WRs in the league. There are better options this week.
Cincinnati (-3) vs Seattle o/u 44
As much as I would love to keep the good times rolling with Andy Dalton ($5,700) and AJ Green ($7,700), I am significantly cutting exposure to both players. It’s simply a terrible matchup with the Seahawks who are starting to look like their old selves on defense. The return of Kam Chancellor is a big boost to this already potent defense. The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd fewest DraftKings points to opposing QBs and WRs.
The running game is an even bigger mess for the Bengals. While they are getting massive real-life production, trying to choose the right back is a weekly headache. Giovani Bernard ($4,800) led the team in carries last week, but it was Jeremy Hill ($6,100) that found the endzone three times! Fortunately, I don’t think we have to worry about which RB to start this week since I will be avoiding both. Again, the Seahawks are stout against the run, allowing the 2nd fewest DraftKings points to opposing RBs.
If you can stomach the risk, Marshawn Lynch ($7,100) will most likely be owned under 5%. He’s currently considered day-to-day, so keep an eye on his status. The matchup with the Bengals is favorable assuming he would get all the workload and goal-line carries.
Arizona (-2.5) @ Detroit o/u 44
Carson Palmer ($6,600) is coming off a tough week against STL, but still scored 19.98 DraftKings points despite being under heavy pressure and sacked four times. That means Palmer has now scored 19+ DraftKings points in nine of his last ten games. That’s about as high of a floor as you can ask for. Palmer receives a much more favorable matchup this week with DET who ranks in the bottom 1/4 of the league in points allowed to QBs.
The Cardinals RB situation could get a little murky this week. There’s a chance that Andre Ellington ($5,300) returns for this game. The unknown is what type of capacity he will have in this offense. Head Coach Bruce Arians seems to be fond of Chris Johnson ($4,400) who may receive the bulk of the work with or without Ellington in the lineup. I will take a “wait and see” approach but if Ellington is ruled out prior to the game, I would be comfortable rostering CJ2K in all formats.
Another great PFF nugget on Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800) shows that DET CB Josh Wilson has been terrible at covering the slot this season, an area that Fitz roams 63% of the time. What’s so telling about Fitz is his consistency this season. Check this out:
Fitzgerald has caught between 6-9 balls in every game and his YPC has been nearly identical in each outing. Even his longest play for each game is within 6 yards of each other! Expect his great season to continue Sunday.
This is a really poor situation for almost every Lions player. The matchup with the Cardinals is less than ideal. Arizona has allowed the 6th fewest DraftKings points to opposing QBs and the 4th fewest to WRs and TEs. So how about RBs? Not great either. The Lions haven’t found that lead-back and even with Joique Bell ($3,500) missing the game last week, Ameer Abdullah ($4,100) could not muster much offense. I have little confidence in any of these guys to be fantasy relevant. Throw in the fact that it’s a short week for the Lions and I hate them even more!
Baltimore (-6.5) vs Cleveland o/u 43.5
Something about Joe Flacco ($5,800) has me interested in him as a GPP play this week. Flacco is incredibly inconsistent, but when he has a good day, he has a GREAT day. He has scored 2.68 and 9.56 points this year, but has also lit of the scoreboard for 25.56 and 24.48. If we are going to see “Good Joe”, you’d expect it to be this week. He’s getting extra time to prepare for the Browns after playing on Thursday Night and Flacco has always been a better QB at home. Flacco has a 91.5 QB rating in Baltimore compared to 78.6 on the road. Cleveland is now surrendering 21.23 DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs this season and they have gotten worse in every game this season (14.06, 18.18, 23.46, and 29.22). He is boom or bust but this is the cheapest he’s been all season and won’t need a massive day to pay for himself.
I wonder how many will be on Justin Forsett ($5,800) this week. I don’t have data to back it up, but many owners “forget” about players who played on the previous Thursday. Well, don’t forget about Forsett. An outstanding game with 150 yards on the ground and dominated the carries with 27 of them! Expect Forsett to see the bulk of the work against the miserable Browns rushing defense. Cleveland is giving up 141.5 yards on the ground per game this season, second worst in the league.
Let’s go really deep here and take a look at Kamar Aiken ($3,800). With Steve Smith out with broken bones in his back, Aiken is going to have to be WR1 for the Ravens. Aiken showed some great hands in Week 4 with 5 catches for 77 yards and a TD. He’s going to be the cheapest WR1 available and should be able to score well vs. CLE who has struggled to cover WRs in three of the four weeks this season.
I am not sure this is the week to roster Gary Barnidge ($3,800) but he needs to be on your radar moving forward. Two straight weeks of six catches is proving that QB Josh McCown trusts his big TE. Barnidge has tacked on 180 yards and two TDs in the L2. Unfortunately, the Ravens are the stingiest defense in the league against TEs.
Denver (-6.5) @ Oakland o/u 43.5
Has Peyton Manning ($7,000) been relegated to a matchup QB? It certainly seems that way. He laid two eggs this season against two of the better pass defenses in the league, while he found success against KC and DET who are bottom of the barrel teams. The old PM was matchup proof, but this one is not. The good news is that OAK has allowed the 5th most DraftKings points to opposing QBs.
No matter the struggles that Peyton Manning goes through, it’s Demaryius Thomas ($8,100) that always seems to get his points. Averaging 19.3 DraftKings points per game this season and I still feel like there’s more upside for DT. He has only found the endzone once this season and has only been targeted in the redzone on two occasions. Thomas is the 3rd most targeted receiver in the league, yet he is the 126th most targeted receiver in the RZ. I expect that number to increase which should improve his ceiling significantly.
Who’s playing the Raiders?? This week, the honor goes to Owen Daniels ($2,700). To say the Raiders have been bad against TEs is a compliment. They’ve been HORRIFIC. They are surrendering 27.75 DraftKings points per game and have been either the worst or second worst team each week. The second worst team overall (NYG) has “only” surrendered 19.1 a week, a full 8 points behind Oakland! Daniels is certainly no target monster, but if this trend continues, he could be one of the best value plays on the board. Confidence in the redzone is also something to note for Daniels as he has tacked on a TD in each of the last two games.
NY Giants (-7) vs San Francisco o/u 43
The Giants RBBC is basically un-rosterable in many formats. Andre Williams ($3,100) and Rashad Jennings ($4,500) are splitting carries while Shane Vereen ($4,200) is doing the heavy lifting when it comes to passing downs. Trying to predict the big game is nearly impossible and none have enough guaranteed opportunity to provide confidence.
Have no fear rostering Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,000). He is going to have some tough games like we saw in Week 4 against BUF where he hauled in 5 catches for only 38 yards. He still has one of the highest ceilings in the league and is in a dream matchup against the SF secondary. The Niners are giving up the 6th most points to opposing WRs.
The 49ers are a complete disaster on offense. Colin Kaepernick ($5,200) is now 22 of his last 44 (a 50% completion rate) which creates a rate that would be the lowest in the league. He’s not even coming close to passing the eye test for me either. His decision making is questionable at best and it looks like he has significantly regressed. Despite the great matchup, I am avoiding Kaepernick.
After a Week 1 explosion on 26 carries, Carlos Hyde ($4,900) has only seen 36 carries in the last three games combined. This is another bad gamescript for Hyde as the Niners are likely to be trailing and abandoning the run in this game. It’s a shame that we have only seen glimpses of the true potential that Hyde can offer.
Buffalo (-2.5) @ Tennessee o/u 42.5
Charles Clay ($4,100) will continue to be a great play as long Sammy Watkins is out (and maybe even when Watkins is back). Clay is now the team’s leading receiver with 24 catches on 31 targets. He has improved his DraftKings output every game this season and is earning the trust of QB Tyrod Taylor. His Week 4, 23.1 pt performance, could have been even bigger as he had a 32 yard TD called back on a pretty lame chop block call.
Now for some value with Marcus Mariota ($6,000). Mariota is averaging 22.3 DraftKings points per game this season and is coming off a BYE week. BYE week’s are massive for rookie QBs to continue to develop and prepare for his next opponent. Mariota will be at home, facing off with the Bills who have surrendered the 3rd most DraftKings points to opposing QBs. Sign me up!
If you’ve read the QB preview, you know that I love Marcus Mariota this week. And Mariota loves Kendall Wright ($5,400). Wright is Mariota’s favorite target and he has had an interesting season. Wright finished Week 1 as WR5 (23pts) and Week 3 as WR14 (23.80) but in-between he only scored 3.7 points in Week 2. That type of Boom or Bust result is great for GPPs and stacking with Mariota is certainly in play.
Tampa Bay (-3) vs Jacksonville o/u 42
I am pretty interested in Doug Martin ($4,700) this week. He is starting to show signs of life and looked great in Week 4 vs. Carolina. He broke off 106 yards on 20 carries and even hauled in five receptions for another 37 yards. Usual gameflow for the Buccaneers removes the running game, but they are a favorite in this one and it may be the last time they are favorites all season long. That could produce a few extra carries for Martin as long as this game stays close. Martin would not need to do much to pay for himself.
If you are rostering Mike Evans ($6,100) or Vincent Jackson ($5,000) each week, there will be times you’ll be greatly rewarded and times you’ll want to rip your hair out. We saw the V-Jax upside last week with 33.7 DraftKings points. Realize that when you have Jameis Winston throwing them the ball (and only completing 54% of his passes, 4th worst in the league) they are going to be highly volatile. That’s not a bad thing for GPPs but something to avoid in cash games.
Let’s think about this logically, the Jaguars are bad at football. Since they are bad, they are losing a lot of games. In games they are losing, they throw the ball. So it makes sense that Jacksonville actually has some fantasy relevant WRs. Those two guys are Allen Robinson ($5,500) and Allen Hurns ($4,500). Those two account for 45% of the teams targets and are both capable of turning in massive games. Robinson scored 36.5 in Week 2 and Hurns scored 31.6 in Week 4. This isn’t so much an endorsement for either guy this week (since they actually have a chance to win this game), but a reminder to not overlook anyone moving forward. Bad teams can have fantasy relevant players too!