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Remember: All positional breakdowns are open to the PUBLIC. Here they are:
Welcome to Week 6 Cheat Sheet! This is a feature that will be released every Friday throughout the season. It will be a fluid article (so check back often!) that will encompass everything you need to set your lineups for the NFL. We will go game by game, discussing the most relevant players on each team.
If you are interested in reading last week’s Cheat Sheet, here it is for Week 5.
DraftKings strategy and pricing is front of mind, but these can also help you set your season long lineups. I love action, so we will go in order of Vegas point totals, highest to lowest! Let’s do it!
BYEs: Dallas, Oakland, St. Louis & Tampa Bay
New England (-8) @ Indianapolis o/u 55
The things that Tom Brady ($8,100) is doing are just not fair. Another ho-hum 25.3 DraftKings points in Week 5, ranking him 5th on the week and gives him an average of 28.5 per game this season. He is now almost four points better per game than the next closest QB (Rodgers, 24.8). Brady should be cemented as QB1 for Week 6 as he will take on the Colts who have surrendered the 8th most points to opposing QBs. If you buy into the narrative, Brady also has that going for him this week, looking to get some revenge on the team that started the whole “Deflate-Gate” fiasco.
The Patriots and Colts have played 3 times in the last 2 seasons (playoffs included) and each time the Patriots have dominated the Colts on the ground. In the 2014 postseason, LeGarrette Blount ran for 148 yards and 3 TDs. During the regular season of that year, Jonas Gray ran for 201 yards and 4 TDs. Then finally, in the 2013 postseason, it was Blount again who ran for 166 yards and 4 TDs. An impressive streak of performances that everyone in the world is aware of. We know that the Patriots gameplan is very specific to their opponent so it’s reasonable to think it will be more of the same this week. I like both LeGarrette Blount ($4,400) and Dion Lewis ($5,800). Blount is the bruising back who will see the majority of the carries while Lewis has made a living catching balls out of the backfield. In a full point PPR, both have value this week.
Julian Edelman ($7,600) is now the fourth highest scoring WR in DraftKings scoring with 24.3 points per game. He is a matchup nightmare and gets the very soft Colts defense who’s allowed the 3rd most DraftKings points to opposing WRs. He will be very highly owned, but is one of my favorite cash game plays of the day.
I’ll say it again this week, if Andrew Luck ($7,600) plays, I am confident in rostering him. He has the long week to get healthy and prepare for New England after the Colts played last Thursday. I think there are much better days ahead for Luck than what we’ve seen this season. I suspect that if he plays, he will be extremely under-owned. Many will simply avoid this situation because he hasn’t played since Week 3 and will be coming off an injury. I’ll certainly buy one of the best QBs in the league, who’s under-owned, in a good matchup.
I am not sure how the return of Andrew Luck is going to impact Frank Gore’s ($4,900) value, but it’s clear that Gore is starting to hit his stride. He’s hit at least 3x value in each of his L3 games and looked great against the Texans on Thursday night. He will continue to dominate all the goal line work and see nearly 20 touches a game. That’s a great price for that much opportunity.
It’s interesting to note that both TY Hilton ($6,500) and Donte Moncrief ($5,000) have suffered with Matt Hasselbeck at QB. Their prices have dropped in each of the last two weeks. This isn’t a great matchup (about middle of the road), but the total is massive and the Colts will likely have to throw a lot to stay in this game. A perfect opportunity to buy low.
Atlanta (-3) @ New Orleans o/u 51
It’s interesting to see that Matt Ryan ($6,900) is priced as the 5th most expensive QB this week. I really don’t like this situation for Ryan and will be avoiding him. The Falcons have been relying heavily on Davonte Freeman to carry this offense and some of the upside has been taken away from Ryan because of it. Additionally, this pass offense only goes as far as Julio Jones can take them so to have him banged up and go an entire half without a reception last week is very concerning. On top of all that, this is a short week so preparation and healing from injuries might be hampered. The only saving grace is the terrible NO secondary, but I have massive concerns for Ryan this week.
Speaking of Devanta Freeman ($7,000), I cannot believe what this guy is doing. He now has 8 TDs through the first five games, which is the same amount that Le’Veon Bell had all last season. It’s clear that the rate he’s scoring at is unsustainable, but the way he’s playing is awesome. He is running like a man possessed and being used all over the field including lining up as a WR. I was a little concerned about Tevin Coleman’s role last week but Coleman was a complete non-factor, seeing only two touches. I also like Freeman’s value if Julio Jones continues to be hampered by injury. Since this is a short week, it’s reasonable to think that Jones may still be dinged up on Thursday night. Throw in a great matchup with the Saints and it’s hard to believe that Freeman doesn’t have another nice day.
Am I concerned about Julio Jones ($9,200)? You better believe it. He looks like that toe injury was really bothering him last week against Washington. I think the injury that has limited him in practice has really hurt his conditioning as he came off the field in situations he would never come off. He also went the entire first half without a reception and only salvaged his day with a fumble recovery TD. With a short week providing little time to heal, I will get my exposure to Jones significantly this week.
I am cautiously optimistic for Drew Brees ($7,000) this week. He’s just a yardage machine, going over 335 yards in three out of four starts this season. His ceiling isn’t as high as it used to be, but he has always played well at home and a short week could cause trouble for the ATL defense with little time to prepare.
Brees has been spreading the ball around (8 different receivers last week) which isn’t great for any of his WRs fantasy-wise. Clearly, the WR benefitting the most is Willie Snead ($3,300). Two straight games of six catches and 38 DraftKings points in the process. His is being trusted on third downs which is a great sign for Snead. His price makes him a lock to start in nearly every format.
Mark Ingram ($6,000) is in the ideal matchup. No team has surrendered more points to opposing RBs than ATL and Ingram is a big focal point in this offense. Assuming the Saints keep this game close, Ingram is a lock for 20 touches including a handful of receptions to boost his PPR value.
Green Bay (-10) vs San Diego o/u 50.5
Good luck stopping Aaron Rodgers ($7,700) this week. We were right in being concerned that STL could limit Rodgers’ upside, as they were able to force three turnovers and hold him to 18.54 DraftKings points last week. I can’t imagine a scenario where SD can slow down Rodgers. They are on a short week after playing on Monday Night and now have to travel to GB to face the league’s best QB. The Packers are a double digit favorite, which they were on two occasions last season. In those games Rodgers averaged 322 yards and 24.8 DraftKings points per game.
This is your last chance to buy low on Eddie Lacy ($6,300). I am holding out hope that there are better days for Lacy. Remember that Lacy also started last year very slowly, averaging only 11.3 DraftKings points per game, despite a massive 31 points game. He scored less than 9 points on four occasions in that stretch. He then averaged 18.6 DraftKings points per game the rest of the season and finished as RB6 for the season. This is the perfect scenario for Lacy who should see a heavy workload if the Packers jump out early. Additionally, no team is giving up more DraftKings points to opposing RBs than San Diego.
It also feels like a big day in store for his counterpart, Danny Woodhead ($4,700). Again, Woodhead should be the beneficiary of a solid gamescript, forcing the Chargers to throw the ball to keep up. Woodhead has reeled in 21 catches in five weeks and will also sprinkle in a few runs. If he simply has his average game of 15.1 DraftKings points, he would be worth 3.2x his salary this week.
Did it look like QB Philip Rivers was happy to have Antonio Gates ($4,600) back?! A massive 9 receptions for 92 yards and two TDs in his season debut. Gates will be highly owned, but should continue to be heavily targeted in the Chargers offense. His presence will downgrade the value of Keenan Allen.
Philadelphia (-3.5) vs NY Giants o/u 50
I am slowly becoming more optimistic about Sam Bradford ($6,000). His price holds for the third straight week and he’s coming off games of 22 and 24 DraftKings points. This Eagles offense is starting to click with 7 offensive TDs in the L2 games. I am concerned about him throwing two brutal interceptions (both in the end zone), but was excited to see him bounce back immediately afterwards. This is a massive division game on Monday Night Football against the Giants defense that has allowed the 5th most DraftKings points to opposing QBs.
Demarco Murray ($6,000) has the best game of his season and gets a discount. I will be back on Murray this week. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Eagles went out and scored a ton of points in a game where Murray saw 27 touches. Those two things go together. Another great matchup this week against NYG who have given up the 9th most points to opposing RBs. If Murray is a lock to touch the ball 20 times, he should be in for a big day.
The price continues to fall on Jordan Matthews ($6,200). I am losing hope but there’s so much to be optimistic about. Matthews is going to lead this team in targets, he’s their best receiver and this game has a huge o/u. All the ingredients have been there for Matthews, he just has to start producing. The upside is there in GPPs but I couldn’t touch this guy in cash games.
I like Eli Manning ($6,800) this week, but his value is tied tightly to the health of Odell Beckham Jr. If ODB suits up on Monday Night, Manning is going to find himself in a great matchup with the porous Eagles secondary. Since Week 2, Manning has averaged 23.04 DraftKings points per game which would be worth 3.3x his salary this week. Obviously he has a much higher ceiling with the way this game could play out.
He has burned me countless times in the past, but Larry Donnell ($2,800) could make for an interesting play if ODB is out. Donnell is the second leading target on the Giants after Beckham and has seen 7 RedZone targets which is also second to ODB (9). He made an incredible catch on the game winning drive last week, so maybe he earned a touch more of Manning’s trust. It’s so appealing because his price is incredibly cheap. A mere four catches for 40 yards would be 8 points and 3x value.
I am keeping a very close eye on Shane Vereen ($4,200) for this week. Specifically I am keeping an eye on Giants WRs Odell Beckham and Reuben Randle. Both WRs suffered a hamstring in Week 5. As on early this week, their status is very much in doubt for Monday night. If one or both or them are out, Vereen will become a big time target for Eli Manning. Vereen saw 8 targets last week, including four on the last drive when both Giants WRs were standing on the sideline. He could provide massive upside in full point PPR leagues.
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