by JFerrie23 | Apr 4, 2016 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, MLB |
Welcome the Opening Day 2016! It is going to be an exciting season as always, and I want to make sure it is a profitable one for all DFSonDemand subscribers! With that said, let’s dive into my favorite pitching options of the day. The Yankees and Astros have been postponed due to rain, so make sure any players in that game aren’t in your lineups!
Pitchers
There are several options to pick from today in terms of start time. David Price ($9,800) is set to make his first start for the Red Sox, and he finds himself in a pretty good matchup against the Indians. While the park factor isn’t sexy in this for Price, he gets a team that posted a 23.4% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers in 2015. The Indians lineup will be missing Michael Brantley, who has been a huge part of their lineup the past few seasons. The only left-handed bat that Price will get today is Jason Kipnis, but that shouldn’t worry anyone who rosters Price, as he limited right-handed hitters to a .265 wOBA in 2015. The win isn’t a lock as he will face Corey Kluber, who has a Cy Young under his belt, but the Sox are running out the stronger lineup. I am fine with Price in cash and GPP. Please note that there is a slight chance of rain!
Max Scherzer ($12,300) has the juiciest matchup in the early slate. If you look at the Braves lineup, there is really nothing to fear. The Braves struggled against right-handed pitchers in 2015, posting a .315 wOBA and 20.4% strikeout rate. Along with that, Vegas has the Nationals as a -170 favorites in a game with a run total at 6.5. I believe those numbers favor Scherzer. There will also be a boost in park factor for Scherzer, as Turner Field typically favors pitchers and depresses home runs. It does look like the wind is pushing out to right field, but I wouldn’t get too caught up in that. Scherzer is an elite play, but it comes at a cost.
I believe that Raisel Iglesias ($8,900) will be a chalk play in the early slate as he matches up against the Phillies, who are one of the worst five teams in baseball and their lineup proves that. In 2015, the Phillies finished with 20.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, so Iglesias should be able to take advantage of that as he finished ’15 with a 26.3% strikeout rate. It does appear that he will be facing more left-handed hitters than right today, which is a little more concerning as Iglesias allowed a .271 wOBA to right-handed hitters and a .332 to left-handed hitters. The total is set at 7.5 and Great American Ball Park favors offense. It also appears that the wind is blowing out to left field in this game, too. I like Iglesias a little due to the Phillies offense, but the total is higher than I imagined, the wind is blowing out and it is Great American Ball Park. This is just a little caution on someone I believe is going to carry a higher ownership percentage early.
My surprising late day pick is going to be Garrett Richards ($8,500). The Cubs are being touted as the future World Series Champions, and that is for good reason. They have the reigning Cy Young winner and an offense that is explosive. However, they do strike out a lot. I believe Richards has some strikeout upside in this game, and I would take a GPP shot at him if I am playing more than five lineups late. Richards help lefties to a .279 wOBA in 2015. The Cubs posted a 23.7% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters in 2015, and I do expect production to continue. He may not get the win, but ownership is going to be low in a matchup with strikeout upside. I would consider an Opening Day shot at Richards.
Team Stacks
One of my favorite stacks of the day is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will get to face Chris Tillman, who really isn’t an Opening Day guy. The total in this game is set at nine, and I believe it goes over that total. Tillman finished 2015 with a .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters and .309 to left-handed hitters. The Twins will have Miguel Sano ($4,900), Brian Dozier ($4,700) and Byung Ho Park ($4,400) facing today with power upside. Don’t ignore that Target Field is much more of a hitters’ park than most believe. While the Twins may have some strikeout issues this season, Tillman had a 6.24 strikeout per nine in 2015, so don’t feat the strikeouts today. I think Eddie Rosario is in an interesting spot today, hitting fifth in the Twins lineup at just $4,000. I would consider him in tournaments.
The Reds lineup is in a very stackable matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who allowed greater than a .330 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters last season. He will head into Cincinnati and face left-handed sluggers Joey Votto ($4,600) and Jay Bruce ($4,100). The wind is blowing out to right field, which could lead to a few balls heading over that fence today. The Reds are favorites in this game and the total is set at 7.5 runs. I think a small Reds stack with Votto, Bruce and maybe Devin Mesoraco is a viable option in this game.
My surprise stack of the night is going to be the Colorado Rockies. There is no doubt that Zach Greinke is an ace and deserved his lucrative contract this offseason. But the Rockies offense is legit, and something to fear. No, they aren’t in Coors, but Chase Field was one of the ten best parks for hitting last season. The Rockies finished last season with a team wOBA greater than .350 vs. right-handed pitchers, so there is so hope for production in Arizona, which stated above, is a run producing park. Greinke was unbelievable last season, but I am not sure the numbers are sustainable. In a tournament, I am taking a shot with the Rockies offense. There is no lineup out yet, so I will update my favorite targets when one is released.
If you have any questions, feel free to reach me on Twitter.
Best of luck!
by JFerrie23 | Apr 3, 2016 | Daily Preview, MLB |
Today is opening day for six MLB teams, and it is never difficult to pick against an ace. However, I believe we use the term ace a little too loosely. Are we going to call Edison Volquez an ace? The Royals rotation doesn’t jump out with front-end pitching, but Volquez is more like a back-end starter than an opening day guy.
With that said, the reason the New York Mets are my favorite opening night stack is due to Volquez being an equal opportunity offender. He allowed a .302 wOBA to left handed hitters and a .308 wOBA to right handers. That leaves some great opportunity on both ends for the Mets. On top of that, Volquez does walk a good number of guys (72 in 200.1 innings). To go even deeper, Volquez outperformed his FIP and xFIP in ’15, which makes me ever less of a believer.
The Mets haven’t released a line up as of yet, but my favorite targets are Curtis Granderson $4,500, Lucas Duda ($4,200) and Neil Walker ($4,100). On a three game slate, they are all high prices, but it is worth it.
In the coming days, we will go much farther in depth with our stacks, but on a three game slate, I would lock and load against Volquez.
On the pitching side, Francisco Liriano ($9,300) will certainly be one of the chalkier options. He sported a 26.5% K% last season which is second highest on this slate behind Chris Archer. He will face a Cardinals team that struck out the second most against opposing lefties last season. Of course, the Cardinals have made personnel changes, so comparing numbers year-over-year are difficult. However, the core group of the Cardinals order that still exists struck out over 22% of the time versus LHP this season.
This feels like a great opportunity to be contrarian in GPPs for pitchers. No pitcher is more than a -125 favorite (Liriano) and all three games have a Vegas total of either 6 or 7 runs. I suspect Chris Archer ($9,400) will be under-owned as he takes on the Blue Jays offense that is so popular to stack. Archer leads this slate in K% and is one of the league’s top strikeout pitchers. The Blue Jays are always potent, but could be a little soft in the core to start the season. Clean-up man Edwin Encarnacion has been dealing with oblique issues that have kept him out of a large portion of the spring. If he starts slow, that could hinder the Jays ability to score runs out of the gate.
by JFerrie23 | Dec 18, 2015 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, NFL |
A few new tools for our Pro Members include:
- NFL Player Points Database – Every point scored by every player in every game!
- Points allowed by position – Exactly what it sounds like!
- Snap Counts for each position – RB, WR, TE
- Sign up for a 7-Day Trial of Pro features.
Note: Please welcome Jason Ferrie to the DFSOD team. We are happy to have him and he has provided the Cheat Sheet for this week. Jason is an accomplished, high-level thinker when it comes to DFS and his work can be found across the internet. If you’d like to reach out to Jason directly, give him a follow on Twitter. As usual, these write-ups include about recent performance, matchup, vegas line, price and so much more. If you like (or dislike) this format, I want you to let me know! You can tweet me or send me a note here.
Welcome to the Week 15 Cheat Sheet! This is a feature that will be released every Friday throughout the season.
If you are interested in reading last week’s Cheat Sheet, here it is for Week 14.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers ($7,400) @ Oakland (GB -3; O/U 47.5)—To be honest, I don’t think I had an Aaron Rodgers lineup this season, which is lucky for me since he hasn’t put up his usual numbers. However, I believe that can change this weekend. Rodgers will be heading on the road to meet an Oakland team that allows the fifth-most passing yard per game (285.5). While Oakland has somewhat limited fantasy production to quarterbacks, this is a great spot for Rodgers. His position players appear to have the advantage if we use Pro Football Focus ratings, which I’ve found to be useful. There is a good chance that the Raiders allow 20-or-more points for the 11th time in a game this week. If we use DFSReport.com, we can see that Rodgers was owned in just 1.9-percent of lineups in the two dollar NFL Snap contest—which has 114,943 entries. I’d say it is a good time to look at Rodgers.
Matt Ryan ($5,700) @ Jacksonville (Jax -3; O/U 49)—Call me crazy, but I love this spot for Ryan. For starters, we all know how brutal he has been this season. Ryan, similar to Rodgers, has been a guy that I’ve limited my exposure to, but that’ll change this weekend. In his last three contests, Ryan has significantly underperformed, which will drive down the ownership. On top of that, Ryan has finally dropped below $6,000. At that price, and throwing the ball 40 times a game, I don’t see how Ryan misses his implied point total of 13.85 this weekend. The Jaguars have surrendered 20-or-more points ten times this season, and I don’t see a reason that it won’t happen again here.
Carson Palmer ($7,000) @ Philadelphia (Ari -3; O/U 51)–The Arizona Cardinals take their smoking hot offense into Philadelphia to meet the Eagles, who have pulled off back-to-back victories over AFC East opponents. It’s no secret that the Eagles defense has struggled at times this season. The Eagles have actually surrendered the second-most touchdowns (29) through the air this season. It should come as no surprise that they’ve also been the second-most generous team to opposing quarterbacks—allowing over 21 fantasy points per game. Somehow Palmer is still priced at just $7,000 in an elite match-up. The total is very high, and Palmer’s skill players are better than the Eagles defenders. I like Palmer in all formats.
Matthew Stafford ($6,100) @ New Orleans (NO -3; O/U 51)—Welcome to the underperformance bowl, folks. Seriously, how underwhelming have these two teams been this season? I know, the Saints have actually been pretty great to DFS players. Thanks, Rob Ryan. It was quite the surprise that New Orleans shut down Winston and Tampa Bay last weekend, but I’m not so sure that trend continues this weekend. For the season, the Saints have allowed 9.6 fantasy points above implied salary to opposing quarterbacks—which is the worst in football. In a game with a total this high, it is hard to turn away. The Saints also lead in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and passing touchdowns surrendered. Stafford is risky, which makes him more of a tournament play, but this is the best match-up he will see this season.
Russell Wilson ($7,000) @ Cleveland (Sea -15; O/U 43)—It appears that the DFS community will be heading back to the well this weekend for some more Russell Wilson. I’m not kidding, either. In the $2 NFL Slam, Wilson was owned in 23.7-percent. The next highest quarterback is Blake Bortles at 9.4-percent. That move Wilson closer to cash for me, but hey, it’s your lineup, not mine. If you do play Wilson, it should pay off, as he faces a defense allowing 4.7 points above implied salary to opponents, per Fantasy Labs. Along with that, Cleveland has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I do have some concerns as to whether or not the game flow will favor Wilson here. The 15-point spread screams blowout, and even with Wilson throwing when leading in the last several games, it worries me some. He should meet his salary implied points of 17, but I worry about the blowout here.
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That’s all folks! Be sure to follow us on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to kickoff! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
by JFerrie23 | Dec 11, 2015 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, NFL |
A few new tools for our Pro Members include:
- NFL Player Points Database – Every point scored by every player in every game!
- Points allowed by position – Exactly what it sounds like!
- Snap Counts for each position – RB, WR, TE
- Sign up for a 7-Day Trial of Pro features.
Note: Please welcome Jason Ferrie to the DFSOD team. We are happy to have him and he has provided the Cheat Sheet for this week. Jason is an accomplished, high-level thinker when it comes to DFS and his work can be found across the internet. If you’d like to reach out to Jason directly, give him a follow on Twitter. As usual, these write-ups include about recent performance, matchup, vegas line, price and so much more. If you like (or dislike) this format, I want you to let me know! You can tweet me or send me a note here.
Welcome to the Week 14 Cheat Sheet! This is a feature that will be released every Friday throughout the season.
If you are interested in reading last week’s Cheat Sheet, here it is for Week 13.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson ($6,300) @ Baltimore (Sea -10; O/U 42)—We are heading into Week 14, and if you watched the last few weeks, you’d expect Wilson to be the chalk play this week. Due to his recent performances, Wilson will have earned the right to be the highest owned quarterback. At $6,300 on DraftKings—Wilson needs just 15.31 points to pay off. He will be facing the Ravens, who have allowed 19.22 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. According to Football Outsiders DVOA metric, the Ravens rank 26th against the pass this season and get the hottest quarterback in the game this week. With back-to-back games of 30-plus DK points, Wilson will be a great play and very popular. I prefer Wilson in cash because of the ownership, but have no issues with using him in tournaments.
Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. New Orleans (TB -3.5; O/U 51)—I hope this isn’t a news flash to anyone, but the Saints defense stinks. So far this season, the Saints have allowed 25.44 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks—which is the worst in football. According to Fantasy Labs, the Saints have allowed 8.7-points above expectation to quarterbacks, which is also the worst in football. Oh, you want more? Well, how about the Saints surrendering a league worst 35 passing touchdowns. Winston has met and exceeded his implied salary each week this season, and he should have little trouble doing so this weekend. The total is high and Winston’s price is low, which means he is a great play in all formats.
Andy Dalton ($6,600) vs. Pittsburgh (Cin -2.5; O/U 50)—This game is huge for both teams. The Bengals want to control their destiny, and the Steelers are fighting for a playoff spot. To the surprise of many, Dalton has been one of the best quarterbacks in football this season. In fantasy, he has been great—outperforming his implied salary in seven of his last nine contests. With a match-up against the Steelers and their 14th ranked pass defense, Dalton has a decent match-up. However, when looking at the specific match-ups, it can be seen that Dalton’s skill players—like A.J Green and Tyler Eifert have the advantage, per Pro Football Focus ratings. The Steelers are allowing 4.9 points above expectation this season to quarterbacks. I think Big Ben will be higher owned, so Dalton is a great play in a game where he is favored with a high total.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) @ Cincinnati (Cin -2.5; O/U 50)—As stated above with Dalton, this is a great spot. Specifically for Roethlisberger, this spot got a little better today. Reports say that Adam “Pacman” Jones, who has been the Bengals top cornerback, will miss the game this Sunday. That gives a bump to all Pittsburgh skill players, which also bumps Ben, too. The Bengals have been a pretty good defense all season, and have defended the pass well. The issue for Cincinnati comes with the injury to Jones, leaving Dre Kirkpatrick as their top corner. For those who don’t know, Kirkpatrick is ranked as the third-worst cornerback in football, per Pro Football Focus. In his last five games, Big Ben has average 43 pass attempts per game, which means that there should be plenty of opportunities to produce. If you don’t like Dalton, you can go Ben—but I think he will the higher owned of the two.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) @ Philadelphia (Phi -1; O/U 47)—The Bills travel to Philadelphia this week in the battle of LeSean McCoy. In each of his past two weeks, Taylor has put up over 27 DraftKings points—which at his low salary means you’re getting a huge bargain. In each of those two weeks, Taylor outperformed his implied salary by at least 14 DK points. This weekend, he will face an Eagles defense that has allowed 28 passing touchdowns this season. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks at 21.8.
To continue reading, become a Pro Member and get access to all our articles and tools.
View Pro Benefits
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow us on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to kickoff! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
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