Houston Open DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

Houston Open DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

Houston Open @ Memorial Park Golf Course
Course Key Stats

Memorial Park Golf Course is host to the Houston Open for only the second time. Last year was the first time we ever played there. So, take the stats with a grain of salt because there’s a sample size issue here.

Last year Carlos Ortiz won this event at -13.

A few unique features to Memorial Park Golf Course:
1. 7,400 yards in length
2. The rough is generally pretty penal
3. The par 5’s aren’t as gettable as we normally see on the PGA Tour.
4. Scoring can be more difficult here

Strokes gained putting ranked 5th out of 110 courses on the PGA Tour, meaning there are only 4 other courses on TOUR in the last 10 years where strokes gained putting correlated more closely with success.

$10K+ Range

Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) averages 2.14 strokes gained per round in the last 24 rounds (Holy Grail, Stats Page). This is the best in the field and has resulted in a win, and a fifth place tie. Also, he is in his element on Bermudagrass greens.

Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) is a high upside, volatile option.

Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) won at Shriner’s and followed it up with a ninth place finish at the CJ Cup.

Cam Smith (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K) doesn’t play often, we’ve only seen him twice in the last two months. However, he’s having a good stretch when he does play. He finished T9 at The CJ Cup and T14 at the TOUR championship. He’s the third best player in this field when sorting by the last 24 rounds behind Sam Burns and Sungjae Im. He may be the overlooked one here potentially making him the leverage play of the week.

$9K Range

Brooks Koepka (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) has 44 measured rounds on par 70 courses longer than 7250 yards and ranks third behind Matthew Wolff (12 rounds) and Taylor Pendrith (4 rounds) in strokes gained total. He has played 11 events in his career on par 70’s that are 7250 yards or longer where he has 2 wins and gained strokes on the field in 8 of them.

Talor Gooch (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) is a great approach player. He struggled on Sunday at Mayakoba and finished T11. In his last 4 starts he finished T11 or better. He finished fourth in the last two Houston Open events.

Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) is who I talk about on a weekly basis. He really well this past Thursday and Friday but didn’t pull it all together for the weekend and ended up with a fifteenth place finish. Wise made the cut in his last three starts at the Houston Open.

Carlos Ortiz (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) looks like he’s finally back into form after finishing runner up last week. He had been gaining strokes on approach in 3 straight before he withdrew from the ZOZO Championship.

$8K Range

Jason Kokrak (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) has unfortunately not been good with the driver which has been a weapon for him for a long time. He has played this event before but not this course before. He could be a sneaky play if he could get back his driver.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) scored more fantasy points than guy who finished above him on the leaderboard last week.

Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) has had two good finishes in a row after a stretch of golf where he was not playing all that well. He has won this event before but not at this course. Looking at long par 70’s, Lanto Griffin gains 0.72 strokes per round, better than some more expensive golfers.

Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) has played 13 events on long par 70’s and has never missed the cut at these events.

$7K Range

Taylor Pendrith (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) can really move it off the tee and has had one event to get over the close call (or what some would say where he should have won) at Bermuda.

Mackenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) had a fourth place finish last time we saw him. He is a short game specialist and therefore is different from the types of golfer I tend to play.

$6K Range

Adam Long (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) is a boom or bust type of play. This may not necessarily be the best spot to deploy him in terms of course fit, but it is in terms of course history. He had an eleventh place finish here last year.

Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) is one of the best putters when he is at his best. He is by-far the best on bermudagrass, gaining nearly a stroke per round.

Anirban Lahiri (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) played really well for the first two rounds at Mayakoba, gaining 5.5 strokes on the field. He had a pop round at Shriners where he gained 3.3 rounds to the field on Thursday.

Paul Barjon (Salary: DraftKings – $6.0K) is much better at golf than the other min-price golfers. He has made the cut in his two starts this year. He also had a win in May on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Monday Custom Model for Bermuda Championship

Recent Rounds: 24

Driving Distance: 20%

Accuracy: 10%

Strokes Gained Putting: 20%

Strokes Gained Approach: 20%

Par 4 Scoring: 30%

  1. Sam Burns
  2. Sungjae Im
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Cameron Smith
  5. Erik Van Rooyen
  6. Jhonattan Vegas
  7. Cameron Tringale
  8. Tyrell Hatton
  9. Emiliano Grillo
  10. Hank Lebioda

When I re-run this model but with just the last 12 rounds – Burns is still first, Scheffler jumps up to four, EVR drops a lot from 6 to 19.

Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.

Best of luck!

Mayakoba Golf Classic DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

Mayakoba Golf Classic DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

Course Key Stats

El Camaleon Golf Club is host to the Mayakoba Golf Classic and this is going to be the strongest field in tournament history this week with 7 of the top 20 players in the world.

The stat that most closely correlates to success is driving accuracy. Only 7 other courses on TOUR have a stronger correlation to success with driving accuracy than El Camaleon.

From this field- Golfers in best course fit model:

  1. Guido Migliozzi *only has 12 measured rounds*
  2. Aaron Wise
  3. Mito Pereira

$10K+ Range

Viktor Hovland (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) gains the most strokes ball striking of anyone with over 50 rounds

Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) has been quite delightful at this event with the last 4 finishes in the top 25.

Tyrell Hatton (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) will probably go the most overlooked with his average ownership in the last 5 events at about 12%. He has high upside, played well at the CJ Cup and, had a recent close call on the Euro Tour.

$9K Range

Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) has been a great tee-to-green player who has figured out the putter. If he can continue this way, he can win golf tournaments. In his last 6 measured events, he has gained strokes putting in 4 of them. He finishes second at this event last year. On the Fantasy tab on the Holy Grail, you can see that Aaron Wise has gained fantasy points on the field in every event dating back to the Wells Fargo Championship (12 events). He has had 7 birdie streaks in his last 3 starts, this is the type of play that scores fantasy points.

Matthew Wolff (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) is a very good driver when he’s at his best. He lost a stroke off the tee at Shriner’s even though he had a second place finish. I’ll continue to be cautious with him until I see some more consistent gains with the driver.

Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $9.4K) is very good off-the-tee, is generally a very good approach player, but is not a very good putter. In general, Paspalum is a little more forgiving for poor putters, but we don’t have any strokes gained metrics on this specific type of grass. 

$8K Range

Mito Pereira (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) is the best in this range in terms of strokes gained: total and in terms of the ball-striking metrics. A case could be made to go back to him.

Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) had another runner-up finish at the ZOZO Championship and has played the Mayakoba Golf Classic in the past to varying levels of success.

Alex Noren (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) was 10% owned at the CJ cup (twice what he is usually owned at) but lost 4 strokes on approach. Since this is the most he’s lost in all of this year, I’m willing to go back to him.

Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) was second to Mito Pereira in the approach play in the last 16 rounds. He leads the 8K range in fairways hit. He has been a below average putter but if he can putt well on Paspalum greens he could be a viable play this week. (Holy Grail Stats Page)

$7K Range

Charley Hoffman (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) has played 22 rounds at this course but has never made the top 30, this is concerning.

Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) has gained strokes on approach in all but two events since the Wells Fargo Championship.

Russell Knox (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) has played 28 rounds at this course in the last 10 years. He has gained an average of 1.87 strokes per round in 28 rounds. Knox has never missed a cut here, he has never finished worse than 33rd, has a runner-up finish (2015), a third place finish (2016), and a ninth place finish (2017). Knox had a twelfth place finished in Bermuda, which was his best strokes gained week dating back to his seventh place finish at Pebble Beach in February. He was a popular play last week who we should still consider for this week.

Adam Long (Salary: DraftKings – $7K) is a volatile option if that’s what you’re looking for. He has either been cut or finished inside the top 30 for almost the entirety of 2021. He has played here twice and finished second and third in the last 2 years.

$6K Range

Danny Lee (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) became the sixth golfer in the last four years to make a birdie streak in all 4 rounds. This is why he finished second and outscored the winner, Lucas Herbert in fantasy points. He probably won’t do this again but it’s interesting to point this out since we are playing a fantasy point game.

Guido Migliozzi (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) popped up on the course fit model as noted previously. Outside of round 4 at Bermuda last week he gained strokes on the field in each of the first 3 rounds. He has a very small sample size of measured rounds on the PGA Tour but he has been a very good ball-striker in those rounds.

Chez Reavie (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) is another shorter more accurate driver of the golf ball with historically good success at this course

Brian Gay (Salary: DraftKings – $6.2K) was popular last week that should be reconsidered for this week. His metrics have been horrible but he played well last week. This he is playing a course where he has great history (0 missed cuts, 6 top 30’s, won in 2018, finished fifth in 2011).

Sam Ryder (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) has gained at least 20 fantasy points on the field in 6 of his last 8 starts.

Monday Custom Model for Bermuda Championship

Recent Rounds: 20

Accuracy: 30%

Birdie Or Better: 30%

3-Putt Avoidance: 15$

Approach: 25%

  1. Russell Henley
  2. Viktor Hovland
  3. Abraham Ancer
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Tony Finau
  6. Hudson Swafford
  7. Kevin Streelman
  8. Alex Noren
  9. Chez Reavie
  10. Carlos Ortiz

My thoughts on this Model: I’ll need to do some homework on Swafford, Streelman, and Dahmen.

I’m absolutely stoked for this week. Be sure to listen to the Viktor Hovland interview I did.

Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.

Best of luck!



📽️ Bermuda Championship DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

📽️ Bermuda Championship DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

Don’t skip this week! Yes, this is a weaker field but – the cash you can win from betting or playing fantasy golf for the Bermuda Championship is just as green as the cash you can win at Augusta National!

Course Key Stats

6800 yards, par 71. Believe it or not – this is the longest course on the island of Bermuda. The only course on the regular PGA Tour schedule that is shorter than Port Royal Golf Course is Pebble Beach Golf Course. Thus, there will be an emphasis on shot shaping and playing out of the fairways. So, it is no surprise that in the first two editions the strongest correlated stat to success at Port Royal was driving accuracy (Source: Course Key Stats RickRunGood.com). Past winners were Brian Gay and Brendon Todd – two very accurate drivers of the golf ball.

From this field- Golfers in best course fit model:

  1. Mito Pereira
  2. Guido Migliozzi
  3. Patrick Rodgers
  4. Seamus Power
  5. Brian Stuard


$10K+ Range

Matt Fitzpatrick (Salary: DraftKings – $11K) – Just won last week on the European Tour (7th European Tour victory, no PGA Tour wins)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – Back-to-back top 5’s at a European Tour event and a Korn Ferry Tour event. My concern here is that he is not very accurate off the tee which can get him into some trouble at Port Royal.

Mito Pereira (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – He has gained DraftKings points on the field (DK Points Gained column of Fantasy Data view on Golfer Profiles) in 6 of the 7 events since his Rocket Mortgage Classic win. In the 6 that he’s gained, he’s gained at least 21 DraftkKings points on the field. This means he’s been a good value play.

Patrick Reed (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K)

Seamus Power (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K) – A valuable pivot off of Mito if you need one. He has been the 12th best player on the PGA Tour in the last 50 rounds (Stats tab on Holy Grail tool, remove filter of just this week’s field). Of the 12, he is one of 6 golfers hitting at least 62% of his fairways.


$9K Range

Hyden Buckley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.9K) – After missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship, he had back to back top 10’s at Sanderson Farms and Shriners by gained strokes off the tee and by gaining strokes on approach. I do worry about his putting, 8 rounds he seems to be either great or terrible.

Patrick Rodgers (Salary: DraftKings – $9K) – He popped up on the Course Fit Tool. He was able to drive well and putt well at the Barbasol Championship (T5) and at the Fortinet Championship (T6). To me, he has the type of skill set golfer that can get hot with a lot of T6’s and a lot of missed cuts. Though the price is scary this week, he might be a slate breaker who is getting overlooked.

Taylor Pendrith (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – He’s a great driver of the golf ball. He has only lost strokes off the tee once in the 8 measured tournaments that he has on the PGA Tour. The problem is that he has lost strokes on approach in 7 of 8 which is both unique and concerning. I’ll be taking a more cautious approach on him for this week.


$8K Range

Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – He can play well at courses that are 7,000 yards that are shorter. He won’t blow you away off the tee, especially with distance, but he can hit shorter clubs into greens and focus more on the putter.

Stephen Jaeger (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – His last measured round on a course this short was in June of 2019

Scott Stallings (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Has played the most rounds of golfers in this price range at courses that are 7,000 yards or shorter. He can lean into the ball striking and hopefully he will find a good putting week.

Sahith Theegala (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) –Stats view Holy Grail this field last 12 rounds sort by SG TOT, he is the top player in the 8K range. The putter is scary, the fact that he only hits 54% of his fairways, also scary.

David Lipsky (Salary: DraftKings – $8K) – He does hit a lot of fairways but his approach game is not very strong in the last 12 rounds.

Garrick Higgo (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – Since his win at the Palmetto Championship, he has been losing a stroke per round. No golfer with as many rounds as he does has lost as many strokes as he has since his win.


$7K Range

Mark Hubbard (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Trends Tool on RickRunGood.com has a section called breakout candidates which highlights golfers who are hitting it well from tee-to-green and putting below their own personal baseline, calling it “unlucky.” Mark Hubbard looks prime to break out (along with Mito Pereira, Kramer Hickok Dylan Wu, and David Lipsky). If they just putt to their own personal average, they would see a significant progression.

Russell Knox (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – His recent form hasn’t been great but he does show up when looking at courses that are 7,000 yards or shorter, golfers that are fairway-finders, or when looking at his own history at this course (finished 16th and 11th in the last 2 years). He is great with his irons and wedges but his putter is a mystery. If this turns into windy conditions and ball-strikers prevail, Russell Knox will likely be valuable.

Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $7.7K) – Same situation as Russell Knox, he is a great ball striker but the putter is very poor. Bermuda is not his worst surface so if we can get a 0 putting week from Matthew NeSmith maybe he can contend.

Hank Lebioda (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – Unfortunately he has not been the same golfer as he was when he was piling up Top 10’s. He does have a 3rd place finish and a 16th place finish here if you’re desperate.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – He finished T2 last month on the European Tour and finished 11th here last year.

Brian Stuard (Salary: DraftKings – $7.1K) – Has missed 4 cuts in a row but if there’s any place to play him it would be here where you get rewarded for hitting fairways and you don’t have to be long.

$6K Range

Michael Gligic (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) – Finished 11th here last year, better than a lot of his peers in his price range

Dylan Wu (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – Popped up as one of the breakout candidates earlier

We will likely cover this tier more on the Wednesday Live Show


Monday Custom Model for Bermuda Championship

Recent Rounds: 12

Accuracy: 35%

Driving Distance: 15%

Strokes Gained Approach: 25%

Birdie Or Better: 25%

  1. Mito Pereira
  2. Austin Eckroat
  3. Chad Ramey
  4. Davis Riley
  5. Hayden Buckley
  6. Bo Hoag
  7. Seth Reeves
  8. Adam Hadwin
  9. Lee Hodges
  10. Seamus Power

My thoughts on this Custom Model: How many of these players can your dad name? Probably none, and that’s a good thing for DFS purposes this week.


Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.

Good luck this week!



📽️ ZOZO Championship DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

📽️ ZOZO Championship DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

ZOZO Championship at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan

Course Key Stats

We only have one year’s worth of data for this course. Driving distance is the most strongly correlated stat, with only four other courses ranking higher in terms of correlation with driving distance.

Bentgrass Greens
Par 70
78 Golfers, No cut


$10K+ Range

Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – Anytime Morikawa can putt well he is a stronger contender to win since he plays reliably well with his irons and his wedges.

  • Gained 3.8 strokes putting last week and finished second
  • Gained 3.8 strokes putting at the Olympics and was in the 7-way playoff for bronze.

Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) –  Was a small positive off the tee and on approach at Shriners – a good approach player who could make some noise at this event

Hideki Matsuyama (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – He will get the hero’s welcome here as he finished second in 2019

Tommy Fleetwood (Salary: DraftKings – $10K) – Using the Holy Grail Tool we can look at round by round data.

  • In the third round at CJ Cup he gained 4.5 strokes on the field, 2 of them are ball-striking. This is the round that would be considered vintage Tommy Fleetwood, hopefully we can see more of this.

Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $11K) – His last official PGA Tour win was a 2019 Tournament of Champions – nearly 3 years ago.


$9K Range

Steep drop-off in terms of field talent from the 10K range to the 9K range

Rickie Fowler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – LAST WEEK He led the field in strokes gained tee to green. Rick Fowler, NOT Rory McIlroy, led the field off the tee. Hopefully he can carry the confidence from Las Vegas to this week’s tournament.

Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – The best player in this range looking at this season and last season. He’s the only golfer averaging over 1 stroke per round in that time frame in this range. The only golfer gaining strokes in all 4 categories.

Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Finished with a flurry at Summit Club – Shot the round of the day with a 61 (-11) on Sunday. Only lost 1.5 strokes putting last week.


$8K Range

Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – Had third top 16 in his last 5 starts after finishing 14th at the CJ Cup last week.

Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – When he goes well he hits his irons well and putts well which is a dangerous combination. This is why you often see the volatile nature of Lanto.

Adam Shenk  (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – By far bentgrass is his best putting surface.

  • Three straight events in which he has gained strokes on approach.
  • 8 of last 9 events he has gained strokes with the putter


$7K Range

Harry Higgs  (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – played well at summit club gaining 4 strokes on approach

Takumi Kanaya  (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – Seasoned amateur golfer with several wins on the Japanese Tour.


$6K Range

Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – coming off a 14th place finish at Shriners.

  • He’s not a great putter but he is almost a 0 putter on bent
  • Gained strokes on approach on Shriners

Sung Kang  (Salary: DraftKings – $6.3K) – I’m not a huge Sung Kang fan but I think he’s mispriced. His last 5 events were pretty strong where he’s been positive on approach in all of them and gained a lot of strokes putting in last 3 events


Players who find success in no-cut events: Last week Rory McIlroy was #1 when we ran this model

  • Xander Schauffele (1.33 strokes gained per round n=120 rounds)
  • Sebastian Munoz (1.08 strokes gained per round n=40 rounds)
  • Lanto Griffin (0.94 strokes gained per round n=32 rounds)
  • Erik van Rooyen (0.94 strokes gained per round n=32 rounds)


Monday’s Custom Model for ZOZO Championship

  • Last 16 rounds
  • Driving Distance: 15%
  • Off-The-Tee: 10%
  • Approach: 25%
  • Birdie or Better: 25%
  • Par 4 Scoring: 25%

Top Players

  1. Jhonatthan Vegas
  2. Will Zalatoris
  3. Si Woo Kim
  4. Joaquin Niemann
  5. Emiliano Grillo
  6. Cameron Tringale
  7. Erik Van Rooyen
  8. Maverick McNealy
  9. Carlos Ortiz
  10. Xander Schauffele

My thoughts on this Custom Model: Pretty volatile group of golfers but I think that’s good for the ZOZO Championship.

Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.

Good luck this week!