Houston Open DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers
Houston Open @ Memorial Park Golf Course
Course Key Stats
Memorial Park Golf Course is host to the Houston Open for only the second time. Last year was the first time we ever played there. So, take the stats with a grain of salt because there’s a sample size issue here.
Last year Carlos Ortiz won this event at -13.
A few unique features to Memorial Park Golf Course:
1. 7,400 yards in length
2. The rough is generally pretty penal
3. The par 5’s aren’t as gettable as we normally see on the PGA Tour.
4. Scoring can be more difficult here
Strokes gained putting ranked 5th out of 110 courses on the PGA Tour, meaning there are only 4 other courses on TOUR in the last 10 years where strokes gained putting correlated more closely with success.
Sam Burns (Salary: DraftKings – $11.1K) averages 2.14 strokes gained per round in the last 24 rounds (Holy Grail, Stats Page). This is the best in the field and has resulted in a win, and a fifth place tie. Also, he is in his element on Bermudagrass greens.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.9K) is a high upside, volatile option.
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) won at Shriner’s and followed it up with a ninth place finish at the CJ Cup.
Cam Smith (Salary: DraftKings – $10.2K) doesn’t play often, we’ve only seen him twice in the last two months. However, he’s having a good stretch when he does play. He finished T9 at The CJ Cup and T14 at the TOUR championship. He’s the third best player in this field when sorting by the last 24 rounds behind Sam Burns and Sungjae Im. He may be the overlooked one here potentially making him the leverage play of the week.
Brooks Koepka (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) has 44 measured rounds on par 70 courses longer than 7250 yards and ranks third behind Matthew Wolff (12 rounds) and Taylor Pendrith (4 rounds) in strokes gained total. He has played 11 events in his career on par 70’s that are 7250 yards or longer where he has 2 wins and gained strokes on the field in 8 of them.
Talor Gooch (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) is a great approach player. He struggled on Sunday at Mayakoba and finished T11. In his last 4 starts he finished T11 or better. He finished fourth in the last two Houston Open events.
Aaron Wise (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) is who I talk about on a weekly basis. He really well this past Thursday and Friday but didn’t pull it all together for the weekend and ended up with a fifteenth place finish. Wise made the cut in his last three starts at the Houston Open.
Carlos Ortiz (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) looks like he’s finally back into form after finishing runner up last week. He had been gaining strokes on approach in 3 straight before he withdrew from the ZOZO Championship.
Jason Kokrak (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) has unfortunately not been good with the driver which has been a weapon for him for a long time. He has played this event before but not this course before. He could be a sneaky play if he could get back his driver.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) scored more fantasy points than guy who finished above him on the leaderboard last week.
Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.1K) has had two good finishes in a row after a stretch of golf where he was not playing all that well. He has won this event before but not at this course. Looking at long par 70’s, Lanto Griffin gains 0.72 strokes per round, better than some more expensive golfers.
Russell Henley (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) has played 13 events on long par 70’s and has never missed the cut at these events.
Taylor Pendrith (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) can really move it off the tee and has had one event to get over the close call (or what some would say where he should have won) at Bermuda.
Mackenzie Hughes (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) had a fourth place finish last time we saw him. He is a short game specialist and therefore is different from the types of golfer I tend to play.
Adam Long (Salary: DraftKings – $6.8K) is a boom or bust type of play. This may not necessarily be the best spot to deploy him in terms of course fit, but it is in terms of course history. He had an eleventh place finish here last year.
Denny McCarthy (Salary: DraftKings – $6.6K) is one of the best putters when he is at his best. He is by-far the best on bermudagrass, gaining nearly a stroke per round.
Anirban Lahiri (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) played really well for the first two rounds at Mayakoba, gaining 5.5 strokes on the field. He had a pop round at Shriners where he gained 3.3 rounds to the field on Thursday.
Paul Barjon (Salary: DraftKings – $6.0K) is much better at golf than the other min-price golfers. He has made the cut in his two starts this year. He also had a win in May on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Monday Custom Model for Bermuda Championship
Recent Rounds: 24
Driving Distance: 20%
Strokes Gained Putting: 20%
Strokes Gained Approach: 20%
Par 4 Scoring: 30%
- Sam Burns
- Sungjae Im
- Tony Finau
- Cameron Smith
- Erik Van Rooyen
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Cameron Tringale
- Tyrell Hatton
- Emiliano Grillo
- Hank Lebioda
When I re-run this model but with just the last 12 rounds – Burns is still first, Scheffler jumps up to four, EVR drops a lot from 6 to 19.
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Best of luck!