by Brad Messersmith | Mar 21, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week one of the biggest stand outs when comparing Vegas odds and Salary is Jonathan Byrd who is better than 100:1 to win despite being only a few hundred above the minimum price. An interesting addition to the puzzle is that Byrd comes in with a recent 5th place finish two weeks ago and hasn’t missed a cut at this event in four tries including three top twenty finishes. Another Vegas standout is one of the most polarizing golf figures in daily fantasy in Bryson Dechambeau. There’s no doubt he has a unique scientific approach to the game, but Vegas sees him as a great value with 60:1 odds to win. Bryson has four missed cuts and a WD in his last five events which begs the question: What does Vegas know that we don’t?
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. There are a couple of obvious standouts this week in Peter Uihlein and Trey Mullinax who find themselves on opposite sides of the ownership coin. Uihlein who should go relatively unnoticed in the higher priced range is a European tour standout from Oklahoma State who once roomed and trained with Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth. Uihlein hasn’t missed a cut on the Euro tour this year and could make a great GPP candidate in a very weak field due to his low ownership. Trey Mullinax however will find himself much higher owned than his fellow sleeper candidates in part due to his well known length off the tee. This week should favor bombers with weather and length taken into account and Mullinax certainly fits the bill as the 7th ranked golfer on tour in driving distance.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
As a result of the extremely weak field I’ve decided to throw this chart out for this week seeing as the resulting chart was very scattered and didn’t have much value in my opinion. One interesting tidbit that I feel worth mentioning is that the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) have a tendency to react very slowly to recent player performance. Take for example Brooks Koepka who since the beginning of 2017 has missed five of seven cuts and hasn’t finished better than 42nd. Despite his poor performance thus far Koepka still finds himself among the top 25 golfers in the world. On the other hand Jon Rahm also finds himself ranked just inside the top 25 golfers in the world, however Rahm in his first year on tour has made nine straight cuts and has six top fifteen finishes including a win. This phenomenon which I’ll call the “Keegan” effect is something that needs to be taken into account when reviewing our weekly OWGR chart.
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Puerto Rico Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Feb 27, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week you can expect things to be a bit unique in that it’s a short field WGC event with no cut and there always tends to be a few surprises that get thrown into the mix on weeks like this. That being said the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart brings us the likes of Jimmy Walker who at roughly 60:1 odds is only $7,000 and on the surface seems underpriced. I’ve been very bullish on Jimmy Walker over the course of the last month and this week is no different. My only concern with Walker is whether or not he can stay out of trouble on what seems to be a course that requires some level of accuracy. The other standout on this chart is Johnattan Vegas who comes in near the minimum price and is coming into the event with incredible form. It’s no wonder Vegas’ odds are only a mere 100:1 despite being near the minimum price.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. Again you can expect some degree of inaccuracy this week when it comes to ownership due to the fact that there are a lot fewer golfers in the field. Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas come in as potential low owned candidates for GPPs which is interesting because I could certainly see either of the two winning this week. As was the case with Walker, McIlroy and Thomas have been known to suffer from inaccuracy from time to time so I have some similar concerns with these two.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
The Salary Vs. OWGR chart has become a familiar friend at this point and is a great comparison between overall skill and salary which tends to show regularly how even some of the most skilled players can sometimes be well under priced. This week there is no subtlety in the standout in Danny Willett, who despite being the 14th ranked golfer in the world is priced as the 67th golfer this week! He is priced below the likes of Ross Fisher, Jeunghun Wang, Hideto Tanihara, Fabrizio Zanotti and Michael Hendry, despite the fact that he is clearly one of the best talents in the world and won a major championship last season. Don’t overthink Willett this week and take the discount.
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WGC Mexico Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Feb 21, 2017 | DraftKings, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. It’s another wacky week when it comes to DK pricing and as was the case over the past few weeks, there is some serious value as a result! The biggest standout this week across several of the charts seems to be Anirban Lahiri who has roughly 80:1 odds to win and is priced at only $6,600 which certainly speaks to his value. He’s made four strait cuts with three top 25 finishes and a 7th place finish so he’s rounding into form and should make a great GPP play this week. On the flip side of the coin lands Cameron Tringale who got a lot of airtime last week playing in the final group with DJ and managing to secure an eighth place finish. That being said I don’t think now is the time to jump on him with terrible odds to win and what seems to an erroneous price.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. The obvious standout here is Russel Knox who enters the week with a missed cut in his most recent showing. Prior to that he was playing exceptionally, and has some serious course history with three made cuts including a second and third place finish. If Knox’s ownership is as low as it seems he should make a brilliant play in GPPs.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
The Salary Vs. OWGR chart has become a familiar friend at this point and is a great comparison between overall skill and salary which tends to show regularly how even some of the most skilled players can sometimes be well underpriced. The standouts on this chart are a bit less obvious this week which is interesting considering the pricing seems to have been adjusted a bit and is much less soft than we’ve seen over the past month or so. This week however, there seems to be some potential value in Brooks Koekpa, Danny Willett, and Soren Kjeldsen, all of whom find themselves seriously underpriced given their world rankings. Kjeldsen is probably the most surprising since he comes in at nearly the min salary despite the fact that he ranks just outside the top 50 in the OWGR. Koepka and Willett are no strangers to winning and with higher salaries probably don’t have the same value pop as Kjeldsen but are certainly worth considering carefully this week.
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Honda Classic Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Feb 14, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. It’s another wacky week when it comes to DK pricing and as was the case over the past few weeks, there is some serious value as a result! We’ve been on the likes of under priced golfers like Louis Oosthuizen (T3), and Shane Lowry (T14) using the Salary Vs. Odds chart so lets see if we can keep that trend going. There are many obvious standouts this week, but none more so than Jim Furyk who comes in at the shockingly low price of $6,700. With better than 80:1 odds to win he’s an absolute steal and should make his way into your GPP lineups without a doubt. The next value candidate is one that probably caught your eye the first time you browsed the salary list. Brooks Koepka at only $7,100 has better than 50:1 odds to win which tops roughly 15 golfers who happen to be higher price than him. While he isn’t in great form and probably doesn’t belong on cash lineups this week, he is definitively skilled enough to win this event.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. I suspect that this week is going to be a week where the ownership projections fluctuate heavily as the week goes on based on the sentiment of the industry. The week the golfer who catches my eye on this chart in a big way is Justin Thomas. Justin Thomas is only one event removed from winning back to back tournaments and we have an opportunity to get him at what could be under 10% ownership. Don’t overthink this one people. Take one of the best up-and-coming golfers on tour who is under priced, and will be low owned and fire away.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
I’m pleased to bring you a brand new chart that will become a regular feature on ‘The Charts’ series; Salary versus Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Ok, I’ll admit it may not be brand new anymore but this chart has done wonders with adjusting my thinking when it comes to value. It’s important to note that as field strength changes, we typically see large fluctuations in salary and this scenario rings true this week. That being said Scott Piercy is nearly minimum price in this event full of stars, and yet comes in at the near minimum price! He’s made four straight cuts, albeit there were no high finishes in this stretch, but let’s not forget that we’re on a course where distance is an ally. Piercy, while not the longest driver on tour does average nearly 300 yards off the tee which puts him above average and at an advantage.
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Genesis Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Feb 8, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. Last week resulted in a strong performance from the Salary Vs. Odds chart calling out the likes of Louis Oosthuizen who had a strong performance. This weeks brings us Shane Lowry as the biggest standout with respect to salary and vegas odds to win. At better than 50:1 odds to win in some spots, Lowry has better odds to win than Tony Finau who is nearly $1,100 more expensive! Don’t overthink this and get Lowry in to your GPP lineups.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. There are a couple of serious standouts right off the bat when you look at this chart. Unless you’ve been living under a rock you will have heard of Jon Rahm who has been on a tear which is quickly becoming unprecedented. As a result expect his ownership to continue to climb. In most cases I would advocate fading guys with this condition, however Rahm may be an exception. The guys who qualify as low owned and possible high upside players would be Jason Day and Jimmy Walker, both of which could win the tournament this week without surprising anyone. Jimmy Walker is probably one of my favorite tournament plays at a reduced price, ownership, and exceptional course history.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. OWGR
I’m pleased to bring you a brand new chart that will become a regular feature on ‘The Charts’ series; Salary versus Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Shane Lowry stands out a bit on this chart as well, but since we’ve covered him I’ll move on to some other pertinent names. Both Scott Piercy and Kevin Chappell find themselves at $7,200 despite being 35th and 36th in the OWGR. Seeing as they are both priced 50 names down the list suffice it to say there is probably some value in both names. Chappell is oft talked about as the strongest candidate on tour not to have broken through with a win at this time. Expect both players to have a solid foundation in my GPP lineups this week.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
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