by Brad Messersmith | May 3, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find a few very interesting outliers when it comes to the Vegas Odds. One of the best value plays on the board in my opinian is Harold Varner who has better than 100:1 odds to win this event and finds himself near the minimum price. As a young upcoming golfer with supreme talent he should make a great GPP play this week. The other outlier is Graeme Mcdowel who seems seriously mispriced at only at only $6,500 with roughly 65:1 odds to win this event. While I don’t necessarily love “G-Mac” this week it’s hard to overlook the discount we are getting when rostering him.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. Right off the bat you will notice some very strange monstrosities. The first and probably most obvious one is Dustin Johnson who will be very polarizing this week after withdrawing on the first tee at Augusta. I suspect his ownership will be drastically reduced and after a month off should make a phenomenal GPP play this week. If Dustin Johnson is even close to 90% I suspect he will find himself in contention come Sunday and that is a risk I’m willing to take. After all, it’s very rare we get a chance at the top ranked golfer in the world at under 15% ownership with the possibility of under 10% ownership. The other standout you’ll notice is Patrick Reed who has recently missed his third straight cut. Normally a grinder on tour who rarely misses cuts, Reed has been very cold as we head into major season. I suspect most people will be turned off to the idea of roster Reed after having been burnt which might make this a great time to “Zig” while others are “Zagging.” At some point I suspect Reed will find his game and I want to be early to the party when he does.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week marks possibly one of the biggest outliers we’ve ever seen when comparing salary versus the Official World Golf Rankings. Alexander Noren is the 12th ranked golfer in the world(!) and is only $6,600 in salary. What’s not to love about that discount? Well his recent form is not to love, given he hasn’t been playing well, but I’m going to be willing to overlook that fact knowing that Noren has it in his game to take this trophy home.
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Wells Fargo Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Apr 18, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find a standout in a golfer who I have been very intrigued by over the last few weeks.
A staple on the Latin American tour Rafael Campos has made over $100,000 in each of the past two seasons in only two events on the PGA Tour. Campos is quickly raising my eyebrows this year however as he continues to make cuts in a string of gutsy performances. His 100:1 odds at only $6,200 makes him one of the biggest standouts in value we’ve seen this season. I am not 100% sold on Campos, but clearly he can play on the big stage and has shown oddly consistent upside which makes him perfect for GPPs. The only other true standout is Daniel Summerhays who comes in with a lack of strong finishes recently, however has some of the best course history in the field. Summerhays hasn’t finished outside the top 30 at this event in five years and as such probably serves as both a GPP and Cash consideration.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information.
While it’s still early, this week Patrick Reed looks to be a good candidate if you’re looking for low ownership. While it’s clear he isn’t playing great now, his price has continued to drop and at some point you can expect Patrick Reed to bounce back. If he’s going to come at a discount and low ownership that makes him a phenomenal GPP consideration. The only other notable worth mentioning at this point is Chris Kirk which comes as no surprise given he hasn’t finished better than 39th in nearly three months, however it is worth mentioning that his last two appearances have resulted in 13th and 8th place finishes.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart.
This week is very interesting as Roberto Castro stands out in a massive way in value based on the OWGR. Castro is 88th ranked in the world and comes in at a serious discount at nearly the minimum salary. I won’t be touching Castro in cash game formats but based on talent and price alone I feel compelled to ignore his recent form a bit and take a small percentage of him in my lineups. The other standout comes in Ryo Ishikawa however I will be steering clear of Ishikawa who has recent form that even I can’t ignore.
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Valero Texas Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Apr 11, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I am extremely pleased to say that this week one of my favorites over the past few months is one of the most obvious standouts on the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart we’ve seen all season. This week brings us a couple of very interesting potential value spots, the first of which is Danny Lee who was completely off my radar until now. After a closer look Danny Lee has three top twenty-five finishes in his last four events. He doesn’t exactly shout “upside” but is certainly worth a small bit of exposure in GPPs in a weaker field this week. The other standout when comparing Vegas odds is Dominic Bozzelli who has roughly 130:1 odds to win and is near the minimum salary. I won’t be going overboard on Bozzelli but definitely will be taking a shot on him as a flier.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week is a bit tough given the week field, which ordinarily comes with ownership that is a bit more clustered on a few golfers more so than usual. Given that it’s early in the week it’s tough to know for sure who those players will be, but early on it seems Tyrrell Hatton may be a candidate for low ownership. With nearly 30% ownership during the masters where he missed the cut I expect most to have an ugly pit in their stomach at the mention of Hatton, which means one of the strongest players in the field is going to be low owned and under priced: Sign me up!
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart.
What an interesting chart this week when comparing Salary Vs. OWGR. The weak field in this event really shows, however there are some really interesting potential values this week. the biggest standout at this point is Danny Willett who is just north of $7,000, yet is the 17th ranked golfer in the world. This marks one of the largest skill vs salary differentials we’ve seen, largely due to Willett’s poor form entering the tournament. The alternative is Russel Henley who is one of the highest priced golfers in the field, yet is only the 61st ranked golfer in the world. My suggestion is don’t over react to Henley’s recent form and adjust accordingly.
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RBC Heritage Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Apr 1, 2017 | DraftKings, PGA, Research |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I am extremely pleased to say that this week one of my favorites over the past few months is one of the most obvious standouts on the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart we’ve seen all season. And guess who’s back!? Tony Finau shows up again as an obvious value when making the comparison between Vegas Odds and Salaries. As many of you already know Finau has been one of my favorite golfers to roster since the beginning of the season. It’s paid off well, and seeing him on the charts is the extra icing on the cake. Other standouts include Lee Westwood, and Paul Casey.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. I would definitely take this chart with a grain of salt this week and be sure to check my twitter for updates as The Masters draws nearer since my ownership projections this week are bound to change drastically based on the results of the Shell Houston Open and what the industry consensus becomes. Early on the two obvious standouts for potential low ownership to me are Jason Day and Justin Thomas. Both of these golfers are world class and have had some inconsistencies over the last couple months. That being said Day is one of the best golfers in the world and Justin Thomas won back-to-back tournaments no more than a few months ago. They both make great GPP options and either one of them could find themselves wearing a green jacket on Sunday.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. The Salary Vs. Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) chart is designed to give you a feel for which players are over or underpriced compared to their sheer talent. The standout on this chart couldn’t be more obvious in Alexander Noren. Currently ranked 10th in the world Noren finds himself only $7,500 in price. He has nearly 25 golfers higher in price than him which gives Noren a serious discount. Noren won a whopping four times on the Euro tour last season and finished in the top 15 in half of all the tournaments he started! Sign me up for that discount.
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The Masters Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by Brad Messersmith | Mar 29, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, PGA |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I am extremely pleased to say that this week one of my favorites over the past few months is one of the most obvious standouts on the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart we’ve seen all season. Tony Finau is 40:1 to win the tournament and is only $700 above the minimum salary! As a golfer who I believe has been underpriced for a large part of the season based on his skill level which has improved this season I will be rostering a lot of Tony Finau this week. Other standouts include Bernd Wiesberger, Ollie Shneiderjans, and recent winner D.A. Points, all of which make for decent GPP plays this week.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week is extremely unique in that…there really aren’t any major ownership standouts on this chart! Ordinarily there are a few golfers who really stand out but this week, I expect ownership to spread with the variety of options in the field who have either exceptional course history, recent form, or in some cases both. If you really are looking for some marginal ownership spots you can expect Henrik Stenson to be lower owned than he should be as a result of his rocky play recently and WD mid round a month or so ago. With 5/5 made cuts at this event, two runner ups, and a third place finish here I plan on exploiting Stenson’s downward trend in ownership.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. The Salary Vs. Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) chart is designed to give you a feel for which players are over or underpriced compared to their sheer talent. This week brings us several standouts in both directions first and foremost being Bernd Wiesberger who was mentioned briefly already. I was surprised to learn that Bernd Wiesberger is 41st in the OWGR and trending upwards in the midst of playing some of his best golf coming into the tournament. I officially second my earlier opinion that Bernd will make a solid GPP option this week.
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Shell Houston Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
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