by Brad Messersmith | Jun 27, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This is what this article series is all about: VALUE! Matt Jones is a player that isn’t being mentioned at all this week and he makes perfect sense at only $6,700. In a field where it’s hard to find players to roster in the $7k range without eating so much chalk you can’t breathe, Jones offers a nice GPP alternative who saves you some salary, has good potential to make the cut and has roughly 100:1 odds to win the tournament this week. The other standout this week is probably one who will indeed be chalky but is probably worth the dry taste in your mouth in Adam Hadwin who comes in with a $6,900 price tag and nearly 70:1 odds to win the tournament. Despite what I expect to be a popular play in Hadwin, I think this is a spot to get a guy who clearly has the game to win the tournament and is as inexpensive as they come in that category.
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Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. When it comes to ownership this week, there a few obvious standouts this early on, but you can expect there to be a large snowball effect in which a large percentage of people jump on a few select players causing ownership numbers to inflate quite a bit. My early guesses for ‘Snowball Effect’ candidates are Grayson Murray, Kyle Stanley, and Danny Lee, all of which are playing very solid golf. This doesn’t mean you should avoid them completely because looking elsewhere is a bit daunting this week with such a weak field in play. On the flip side, you might find some value in low ownership among guys like Billy Hurley, Russell Henley and J.B. Holmes, all of which I think make solid GPP plays given their deflated ownership numbers.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. There are a couple of very interesting names that show up on the OWGR chart this week that I plan on sliding into some GPP lineups without question. Adam Hadwin was mentioned earlier and the same holds true, but Wesley Bryan, and Si-Woo Kim make for an interesting discussion. Wes Bryan is one of the most skilled up-and-coming golfers in the world, which makes him a class golfer in this field save for a few names. Bryan has been slumping a bit since he nabbed his first win on tour a couple months ago, but look for him to bounce back at some point, and why not on a second shot course that should suit his game perfectly. The course fit narratives ring true for Si-Woo Kim as well, and as the 29th ranked golfer in the world I think the class golfer narratives works as well. With the upside needed to win this tournament if he’s on, Si-Woo is one that makes perfect sense in my mind.
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Quicken Loans National Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by RickRunGood | Jun 26, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, FantasyDraft, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Billy Hurley, will head to Potomac, MD to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
by Brad Messersmith | Jun 21, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. The first standout this week comes in the form of Lucas Glover who’s odds are roughly 100:1 to win despite the fact that Glover will cost you only $6,600 towards the salary cap to get him in your lineups. Particularly in a marginal field like the one this week, Glover’s price certainly does stand out, and on a course with much slower greens, Glover’s putting weakness may be masked enough to make him a great GPP play. The other standout is probably one that you’ve heard mentioned elsewhere in Charley Hoffman. It seems fairly obvious that Hoffman is under priced this week, which is in agreement with the charts. Hoffman has made eight of his last nine cuts and is trending upward with his recent eighth place finish at the U.S. Open.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. If you’ve been following this article series regularly you will have become used to the idea that the highest priced golfers are typically going to be the highest owned golfers on the slate with a few exceptions. This week just might be an exception with Justin Thomas and Paul Casey offering massive discounts in comparison to several golfers who just recently missed the cut in the $11,000 and up range. While some of this depends on whether the general public decides they aren’t worried about Jason Day and Rory McIlroy’s recent missed cuts at the U.S. Open. The only other really interesting standout on the ownership chart this week is Jim Furyk who is currently projected at under 5% ownership, in part because of his massive price jump between last week and this week. Jim Furyk has played poorly all year, however finished twenty-third last week at the U.S. Open and managed to shoot professional golf’s first ever 58 at this course last year which probably has led to the price jump. I will be taking a wait and see approach with Jim Furyk, but if you think he continues to trend upward, now would be the time to nab him at super low ownership.
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Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week’s OWGR chart has some very interesting standouts this week, one of whom is Wesley Bryan who’s official world golf ranking is 40th in the world despite his sub $7k price tag. Wes Bryan has been particularly bad over the course of the last month following his first win on tour having missed three of his last four cuts and finishing no better than 45th place. At some point I expect Wes Bryan to bounce back, and why not this week on a course that plays to Bryan’s strengths? Wes Bryan has the game to win an event like this and is going to be my super sleeper to win here
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Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by RickRunGood | Jun 19, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, FantasyDraft, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Russel Knox, will head back to Cromwell, CT to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year.
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win top 5 and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
by Brad Messersmith | Jun 13, 2017 | DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week we find one of the most overlooked golfers on the week showing up (as he should) on the Odds vs. Salary charts. Billy Horschel is only four weeks removed from winning the AT&T Byron Nelson and is coming off of a fourth place finish at the St. Jude last week. What’s not to like about a guy who is near the minimum price, has never finished worse than 32nd at a U.S. Open, and has nearly 80:1 odds to win? The next guy who is as much a standout as Horschel was based on his odds and salary, is Martin Kaymer. Contrary to Horschel though, Kaymer is coming in playing one of the worst stretches of golf we’ve seen from this international superstar. With roughly 60:1 odds to win and a $7,000 price tag, Kaymer’s poor recent form may be worth overlooking in order to take a flyer on a golfer who Vegas believes has some upside in GPPs.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. As you may have already been able to tell, the ownership numbers for this chart were adjusted once already since the salaries are out, and the result is fairly polarizing. You will find golfers like Rory McIlroy who just isn’t being talked up at all (perhaps as a result of having played only twice in the last twelve weeks). On the contrary we have Rickie Fowler and Kevin Kisner who are both rapidly becoming the chalk this week. Kisner’s all around game is something I’m seeking at a course like Erin Hills so I’m willing to eat the chalk there, however Rickie Fowler leaves me a bit more hesitant. As a golfer who has certainly had his fair share of success this year, Fowler has also found trouble regularly which is most likely going to lead to some punishing results this week. As for low ownership, Henrik Stenson is a pretty safe bet as the lowest owned golfer at the top end of the slate. He comes in with some decent performances overseas recently, however I still find myself leaning towards fading Stenson. Henrik over the course of the last season has had some struggled on seriously difficult courses, and Erin Hills certainly fits the mold.
Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. I suspect before reading this article you’ve probably taken the time to browse the list of golfers and salaries at this point, and I equally suspect you’ve glanced past the first golfer I’ll mention here without a second thought. Danny Willett is currently ranked 28th in the OWGR and has nearly 250:1 odds to win the tournament. It’s been a long downhill slippery slope of bad results for Danny Willett as of late including a WD from The Players Championship recently. I won’t advocate taking a second mortgage to put it all on Willett to win this week, however I think a golfer of this caliber is certainly worth a second look given his price. The other golfer is one that you will have heard me mention (probably hundreds of times) before if you’ve been following my work closely. Somehow nobody seems to have adjusted to the fact that Francesco Molinari has risen all the way to 16th ranked in the OWGR, and yet he is only $7,000 in price. Why people have not begun to join me in piling ‘$Molinari’ (pronounced Money Molinari) into everything just yes has continued to astound me. He’s making cuts with some serious consistency and is showing upside with that consistency we’re not used to seeing out of Molinari on American soil, yet his price continues to stay consistently low, and I continue to reap the benefits….and you should too.
Click To Enlarge!
U.S. Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.
by RickRunGood | Jun 11, 2017 | Daily Preview, DraftKings, Fanduel, PGA, Research, Strategy |
Defending Champ, Dustin Johnson, will head to Erin, Wisconsin to defend his title. This week’s Research Spreadsheet includes:
*NEW* Key Stats – Breakdown and ranking of “Key Stats” for the this tournament, with new scoring system.
*NEW* Last Week – A transparent look into the Key Stats for last week and how the player’s finished.
Past Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, broken down by year (since 1986)
Historic Performances –Â How players have fared at this tournament in the past, by totals (since inception – min three appearances)
Recent Performance- Full stats for the L5 years at this tournament and L10 weeks on TOUR.
Full Box Scores –Â All final performance stats for years 2016, 2015 and 2014.
Betting Odds –Â Odds for each player to win and top 10
DraftKings Salaries, Fanduel Salaries, FantasyDraft Salaries
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, get started below:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
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